All Weather Winter Warmer

The Rooster

MH, will you be doing a summer flat racing thread or does your strategy for AW not also work for normal flat racing?

Mostly Harmless

The Rooster wrote: »

MH, will you be doing a summer flat racing thread or does your strategy for AW not also work for normal flat racing?

The amount of racing on during the summer makes it very hard work to keep on top of. Might keep something going on just Irish flat racing if I can motivate myself.

hoganr24

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

The amount of racing on during the summer makes it very hard work to keep on top of. Might keep something going on just Irish flat racing if I can motivate myself.

Definitely should keep it going. New thread or some sort of Facebook group? Could even offer a paid service too.

Mostly Harmless

Not going to charge money for them because that's a frauds game IMO but hard to see why to do it for free too, not a big user of social media so doubt I'd go that way either. Basically I have no idea.

unplayable

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not going to charge money for them because that's a frauds game IMO but hard to see why to do it for free too, not a big user of social media so doubt I'd go that way either. Basically I have no idea.

twitter could be an easy way to do it

The Rooster

unplayable wrote: »

twitter could be an easy way to do it

If I was good enough to do it, I'd definitely just stick with boards.
You'd have to have a lot of time on your hands and a hard neck to deal with moderating twitter responses. Here, most of the eejits are weeded out for you by the mods or other posters.

Lady Haywire

^ I find twitter very easy to manage. Just keep an account on private if you want to moderate the loons. The fact that you can get instant notifications when an account tweets is useful too! Be a shame to just stop, even though i'm much more an AW fan than a flat turf fan. Much easier to find winners on AW (imo) as you'll have horses that predominately act on the surface whereas in turf the ground can be tricky to gauge.

NaiveMelodies

Could do a 'tips for charity page'- a €50 donation equals access to tips for a month/bi-annually or similar. I suppose that could work on a private twitter page. Might give you the impetus to carry on if there was a charity close to your heart and of course raise a fair chunk!
That could probably be fairly head wrecking though and is a little hypocritical I suppose.


Can only imagine how tough it is to keep the motivation levels up though- it's been an impressive run regardless.

hoganr24

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not going to charge money for them because that's a frauds game IMO but hard to see why to do it for free too, not a big user of social media so doubt I'd go that way either. Basically I have no idea.

Mostly Uncertain so haha. But yeah I think you’ve proven to anyone following the thread that you wouldn’t be a fraud if you started charging. Hope the harmless train doesn’t stop though, been great!

Lets get Hygge

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not going to charge money for them because that's a frauds game IMO but hard to see why to do it for free too, not a big user of social media so doubt I'd go that way either. Basically I have no idea.

Haven’t been backing your selections myself but have been following with great interest. Would love to see this thread continue, super picking MH

IAMAMORON

Mostly Harmless, just a question (s). It being the start of the flat season this weekend. How much comfort can you take from turf form, from say the closing months for 2018, in particular in relation to how juveniles have wintered and how this differs to average handicappers who might be starting their season for the third or fourth time?


I know that is a fairly open question, but you obviously know your onions with your AW picks, particularly when it comes to below average handicappers. Does this knack transfer to Tuesday night Roscommon evening meetings for example?


I respect that this might need a new thread, but your thoughts would be appreciated.

BumperD

MH keep this going if you can. I haven’t backed them but enjoy following/reading. Impressed with results, not easy achieve

ASOT

Id also like you to keep it up if possible, Iv back more or losers than winners because I'm a Jonah, but it's great to follow.

Mostly Harmless

Thanks for everyones comments, appreciate the positive feedback, will let you know what I decide.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Mostly Harmless, just a question (s). It being the start of the flat season this weekend. How much comfort can you take from turf form, from say the closing months for 2018, in particular in relation to how juveniles have wintered and how this differs to average handicappers who might be starting their season for the third or fourth time?


I know that is a fairly open question, but you obviously know your onions with your AW picks, particularly when it comes to below average handicappers. Does this knack transfer to Tuesday night Roscommon evening meetings for example?


I respect that this might need a new thread, but your thoughts would be appreciated.

Generally speaking form is form and value is value so same methods apply to turf racing, but I do tend to prefer the lower grade races where there can often be less obvious cases to be made for ones that get missed in the prices. That said, I don't really like backing 3yos in first half of the season as so much can have changed over winter and they can start improving out of nowhere. There are also more variables to contend with on turf that you don't get to such a high degree on the AW (e.g. going, course configuration).

Overall I think the selections on this thread have been subject to some very decent variance in the main and realistically a long term ROI of 10-15% (at max) would be more realistic - which is another reason why I would be reluctant to keep this going as I believe (know) a horrible run is right round the corner.

Mostly Harmless

We have something to bet on again, and bet we will.

2.40 Lingfield: Beepeeceecee (10/1 365, Hills, Ladbrokes, BV) 3pts EW

7.00 Newcastle: Mudawwan (10/1 Generally) 1pt EW

6.15 Dundalk: Kasbah (9/2 Generally) 1.5pts Win
6.45 Dundalk: Invasion Day (6/1 Coral, BV) 1pt Win
7.15 Dundalk: All The Mollies (10/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
7.45 Dundalk: Itsalonglongroad (10/1 Paddy, Boyles, Hills, BV) 2pts EW
8.45 Dundalk: Miss Louise (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Mostly Harmless

Place for Itsalonlongroad and All The Mollies a NR yesterday. Not on laptop at moment so will update totals at later date.

Today:
3.10 Lingfield: Nonios (12/1 BV, Hills) 1.5pts EW
3.45 Lingfield: Doctor Sardonicus (18/1 Paddy) 1pt EW
8.30 Kempton: Dutch Uncle (18/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW

Mostly Harmless

Got round to updating the figures.

Totals
Staked 678.00
Returned 848.07
P/L 170.07
ROI 25.08%

1pt EW on Crownthorpe in Lincoln not included in above and will update it with the bet included after todays action, will stick up a couple other bets at Naas today in a moment.

Mostly Harmless

2.35 Naas: Jewel Maker (7/1 365, BV) 2.5pts Win
3.05 Naas: Leagan Gaeilge (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
3.40 Naas: Hand On Heart (50/1 365) 1pt EW

Mostly Harmless

Hand On Heart denied by a head, others no good.

Totals
Staked 687.50
Returned 859.07
P/L 171.57
ROI 24.96%

Mostly Harmless

Two today:
3.30 Lingfield: Music Man (10/1 365) 1pt EW
7.45 Wolverhampton: Final Attack (10/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW

NaiveMelodies

Hard luck on Hand on Heart yest.. agonizingly close to a huge one.

The Mig

Be keeping an eye out for Final Attack in future races when they put a jockey on it. Woeful ride and made up serious amount of ground

TheMilkyPirate

I think she just got caught a bit off guard with the pace of the race she tried to drop the horse in and they went off like the clappers and before she knew it she was too far back.

Mostly Harmless

Final Attack just a bit of a monkey I think, usually runs that sort of race - 4 times I have bet him in this thread and has been placed on 3 of those occasions. Not sure if Malune was riding to instructions or just ended up out back inadvertently. Will win one eventually but needs it to drop right and will always look more of a place than win prospect.

Final Attack got 4th for the place payout with Paddy but 10c R4 after one was taken out at start.

Level for the day

Totals
Staked 694.50
Returned 866.07
P/L 171.57
ROI 24.70%

Mostly Harmless

Should be a few bets at Wolverhampton today, am out this morning but will post once I am back.

Mostly Harmless

5.00 Wolverhampton: Folies Bergeres (25/1 Paddy, Boyles) 1pt EW
5.30 Wolverhampton: Van Gerwen (33/1 365, Hills, Paddy, Boyles) 1.5pts Win / Patrick (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win
7.00 Wolverhampton: Prince Of Harts (11/1 365, Paddy, Boyles) 1pt Win

STB.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

5.00 Wolverhampton: Folies Bergeres (25/1 Paddy, Boyles) 1pt EW
5.30 Wolverhampton: Van Gerwen (33/1 365, Hills, Paddy, Boyles) 1.5pts Win / Patrick (16/1 Generally) 1pt Win
7.00 Wolverhampton: Prince Of Harts (11/1 365, Paddy, Boyles) 1pt Win

Your first one was 4th at 66/1.

And your last one, won at 16/1. Total outsider of 6 and done it easily from off the pace.... Your eye is in again. Like I said before, stick to the 16/1 shots

The Rooster

STB. wrote: »

Your first one was 4th at 66/1.

And your last one, won at 16/1. Total outsider of 6 and done it easily from off the pace.... Your eye is in again. Like I said before, stick to the 16/1 shots

I was just finished effin and ranting at horse and jockey, when I noticed that actually they might just have a chance here! Beauty!

Mostly Harmless

Folies Bergeres looked just about most likely winner a couple of furlongs out but could only manage 4th having gone off at 66s. Van Gerwen and Patrick never really threatened at business end. But Prince Of Harts got job done at a massive 16/1 and pushes the profit back upwards a notch.

+11.50pts on the day

Totals
Staked 700.00
Returned 883.07
P/L 183.07
ROI 26.15%

Mostly Harmless

Few bets today, will post once shops have opened and have got on myself.

Mostly Harmless

2.00 Lingfield: Spirit Kingdom (20/1 365, Hills, Coral) 1pt EW
3.25 Southwell: Gabrial The Tiger (13/2 Generally) 2.5pts EW
3.35 Lingfield: Schindlers Ark (9/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
3.55 Southwell: Majestic Moon (20/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
4.30 Southwell: Blistering Dancer (25/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW / Dream Ally (33/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5)

Mostly Harmless

Might have a couple more for Kempton this evening in a bit

Tomw86

I'm following today. Can't believe I missed them yesterday!

Cherry_Cola

I had another tip from a reliable source on Majestic Moon so went heavy on it.

Mostly Harmless

6.30 Kempton: Herringswell (20/1 Generally) 1pt EW
7.00 Kempton: Sir Jamie (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
7.30 Kempton: Silverturnstogold (25/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

TheMilkyPirate

Ah so close..!

Whiplash85

Another crossbar hit. Incredibly unlucky.

Tomw86

Thought we had it once it hit the front

Cherry_Cola

Think I lost my voice after that one! Great picking!

STB.

If Theodore Ladd had been on your pick MH that would have scooted in. Phil Dennis is a tad weak in a finish! Crossbar 33/1 when I backed it.... Keep emm coming

Daraa

Some comeback from Sir Jamie! Potentially held back too long but sure I know nothing!

Whiplash85

Christ 4 2nd places today at massive prices. Just ran into one in the last. Phenomenal picking . Well done if not a little unlucky that it wasn't a day for the ages.

Andrew00

Big gamble landed at Kempton

Mostly Harmless

Two bigger bets could not get involved.

Out of the rest there were four places at 25s, 33s (traded 2.1 IR), 12s (traded 1.16 IR) and 20s (traded 2.2 IR), so feels a but unfortunate to have not at least got one win out of those but that's variance.

Could have been a seriously profitable day with just a small bit better fortune but nothing lost and a small bit gained.

+2.7pts

Totals
Staked 725.00
Returned 910.77
P/L 185.77
ROI 25.62%

Giving myself until Sunday to bring up the 200

STB.

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Christ 4 2nd places today at massive prices. Just ran into one in the last. Phenomenal picking . Well done if not a little unlucky that it wasn't a day for the ages.

It is phenomenal picking.

I know this game. Its not guessing, its not luck. It is something so forensical that we haven't copped it.

Mostly Harmless

STB. wrote: »

It is phenomenal picking.

I know this game. Its not guessing, its not luck. It is something so forensical that we haven't copped it.

80% Luck, 18% Guessing, 2% Skill

Daraa

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

6.30 Kempton: Herringswell (20/1 Generally) 1pt EW
7.00 Kempton: Sir Jamie (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
7.30 Kempton: Silverturnstogold (25/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

I was greedy on this and did an e/w treble. Great picks though. Already posted about Sir Jamie. Made the evening every entertaining for me! (And popular down the pub)

Chesty08

Andrew00 wrote: »

Big gamble landed at Kempton

20s into 13/8.

From a high of 96 mark goes off at 69 mark, it’s lowest since Jan 2017. Recent form been horrific.

Yes it’s a coup but worth noting at its last low point it won 4 of next 6 races and went from 65 to 90s after a similar plummet.

IE Keep an eye on this one

Mostly Harmless

3.25 Wolverhampton: Bell Heather (20/1 365, BV) 1pt Win
3.55 Wolverhampton: Reflektor (8/1 365, BV, Hills) 1pt EW
5.05 Wolverhampton: Captain Kissinger (12/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW

Being forced to abandon Final Attack in 5.05 after missing best of price so we all know what happens now...

Chelmsford bets to come after lunch.

Mostly Harmless

5.30 Chelmsford: Dukes Meadow (50/1 Paddy) 0.5pts EW
7.30 Chelmsford: Peggys Angel (20/1 365, Hills, Ladbrokes) 2pts EW
8.30 Chelmsford: Kyllukey (8/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW