FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Harry Palmr

Looks like a bit of storm a brewing for next midweek.

Mortelaro

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1100395736561258498?s=19

Danno

This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)

Snow depths:



Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.

Gonzo

mid week next week certainly looks chilly compared to what we've become used to, possibly some snow on high ground. Temperature's would be close to 8C colder than yesterday in many areas.

Gaoth Laidir

Danno wrote: »

This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)

Snow depths:



Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.

Or maybe no surprise whatsoever as it's just the GFS.

Meteorite58

Far away and no certainty but the ECM showing some cold charts. That Low to the N of Scotland helping to steer down a very cold air mass. The Jet more to the S of us on these charts letting the colder polar air sink down over us.

We are all well aware how time and again the cold charts failed to materialise this winter but looking at the current crop there is a cold theme showing I think into mid march. Of course the Sun is rising and strengthening but it looks to me like the type of weather that could still be wintry at times with plenty of hail showers and thunder possible with big cloudscapes . Possible white ridges on Mountains at times with the odd bit of white to lower levels perhaps if those charts for around +240 hrs were to verify. Entering a new phase of weather, the warm southerlies will be thing of the past rather quickly, colder nights and tons of fresh cold air in off the Atlantic.

Another folly to chase or the real thing !

Time will tell.



















GFS similar.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z looking unsettled especially next weekend , showing a series of depressions being whipped by a very strong jet . ATM these are showing up towards the Northern end of the country and can and do drift North away from Ireland but at least looks windy and wet and with low uppers a share of the time with fronts going through could be wintry at times also. Showing one very stormy period out at the end of the run but this is better viewed as a trend atm.

Gonzo

It seems Winter was delayed by 3 months, Cold Winter style conditions looks to be having it's revenge, with the mild sent it's bags packing.

Looks cold and wintry from next Sunday 10th of March to about the 16th of March with Ireland placed on the cold side of the jetstream.

Potential for unsettled and wintry conditions beginning next Sunday. Snow looks possible, especially over high ground.

Rebelbrowser

Plenty more cold shots this month on tonight's model suite

Harry Palmr

Sure if "Patty's Day" is coming so is the cold. Twas ever thus.

YanSno

March in general is looking to be on the cooler side. We will have more of these types of scenarios what we just had the weekend with different locations having some sort of wintry weather and also as usual altitude does come in play. This could be the theme until mid March. It's likely that high pressure will be close by around the 3rd week of March it will be dry and settled. Last week of March could turn out to be very cold with a possible North Easterly with high pressure shifting north.

Meteorite58

Yeah again the ECM looks very windy and wet with what looks like wintry interludes at times from early next weekend. Numerous LP's being spun out of the very lively Jet which varies f

rom lying over us to below us and currently looks like patterns of alternating abrupt plunges of milder moisture laden airmas to cold or very cold upper airmas sweeping over us as the weekend progresses into the early days of the following week. Has the look of wintry weather all right as Gonzo said above especially around the 11 -12th.

GFS is showing very disturbed weather this Sat / Sun with a direct hit from a nasty looking storm ( ECM not showing it as strong or the same track so big uncertainty and would lean more towards the ECM ) but with the Jet that fast over us the weekend coming it is too early to know any exact details at this stage only that there is potential for very windy /wet /wintry and possibly thundery weather.

GEM also showing unsettled conditions.



850 hPa winds

typhoony

GFS 18Z showing sustained wind speeds of 74mph Saturday night through into early hours of sunday off the South Coast, that's Hurricane force for anyone that's interested.

Gonzo

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 18Z showing sustained wind speeds of 74mph Saturday night through into early hours of sunday off the South Coast, that's Hurricane force for anyone that's interested.

That's going to be a wicked wind chill on Saturday/Sunday.

Gonzo

A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.

Can't post pics but the same GFS 6z has Paddys weekend as being very cold indeed. -6 and -8 uppers widely over the weekend.

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Can't post pics but the same GFS 6z has Paddys weekend as being very cold indeed. -6 and -8 uppers widely over the weekend.

the differences between the operational GFS and the GFS Parallel are wide in FI. GFS has the warm and settled spell after Saint Patricks Day while the GFS Parallell is a colder and more unsettled pattern. The GFS-P has quite a stormy and cold setup for Paddy's day with a cool and showery setup after that, compared to the GFS Operational.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

the differences between the operational GFS and the GFS Parallel are wide in FI. GFS has the warm and settled spell after Saint Patricks Day while the GFS Parallell is a colder and more unsettled pattern. The GFS-P has quite a stormy and cold setup for Paddy's day with a cool and showery setup after that, compared to the GFS Operational.

I use an Italian app (which someone here linked to last year) when looking at the models in quick overview. Didn't realise they had made the GFS parallel the default GFS model. Until about a week ago it was the old GFS they used.

nacho libre

The last week of March could be interesting if the high ends up going north. I know i'm in the minority here but i would love to experience an event like April 1917.

Tacklebox

nacho libre wrote: »

The last week of March could be interesting if the high ends up going north. I know i'm in the minority here but i would love to experience an event like April 1917.

Anything is possible, i think there's a nice article somewhere about it.

It was written by a Clare man or in Clare by someone who had a creative mind.

I think it started in Tulla in East Clare, a cold airflow came in, and it started lightly and turned into a record proportion of snow fall....

highdef

Rather amusingly, GFS is going for more or less a repeat of the snow event last Sunday, for next Monday night. It wants a rapidly developing low pressure system to cross across the very south of the country and with almost the same trajectory as last Sundays event. More or less a carbon copy of last Sundays event except in this case, snow would be falling at night which would result in a rush hour disaster the next morning. Take this with a massive pinch of salt as it's unlikely to become reality. Having said that, it happened a few days ago!

Artane2002

99.9999% won't happen but imagine if this perturbation came off

highdef

Artane2002 wrote: »

99.9999% won't happen but imagine if this perturbation came off

Is it just me who can't see it?

highdef

Surprisingly, the 12z GFS run continues the theme with a low pressure deepening extremely rapidly as it passes from SW to NE, just off the south coast. It's track is a bit further south in this latest run but that's probably not a bad thing as GFS tends to correct low systems further north as T -0 gets close, especially when it concerns such a rapidly developing system on the approach.



850 hPa temps look good for Ireland:


Low level winds look about as favourable as can be for most parts, especially considering the power of the rapidly developing storm. The wind pattern looks remarkably similar to what we had for the snow event last Sunday:



Temperatures look very similar to last Sunday too. Could be a rain/snow mix at times but potential for a decent bit of wet snow:


Forecast Precipitation, including the hatched areas where there is a risk of snow:


And finally, projected snow depths. Kinda pointless looking at any sort of detail with these this far out. In fact, don't take any of this particularly seriously. I just find it fascinating how remarkably similar the forecasted event looks to last Sunday.

Artane2002

highdef wrote: »

Is it just me who can't see it?

It's working for me. It's GEFS Perturbation 14, showing a very extreme wind event. I'll repost it to see if it will work now

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

It's working for me. It's GEFS Perturbation 14, showing a very extreme wind event. I'll repost it to see if it will work now

It was working fine for me on my PC.

sdanseo

ECM also chiming in, funnily enough I looked at its 14th member instead of GEFS by total accident, but it seems to be the strongest of all ECM. Coincidence or are GEFS/ECM related?

squarecircles

T120 + hrs ? ,

aisling86

I was just having a look at my windy app & it's showing multiple days of 90km gusts Sunday - Thursday, it seems from Saturday onwards the jet is in full force.

Gonzo

tonights GFS run shows no let up in the unsettled conditions right up to the end of FI.

The next week looks very windy and potentially stormy at times. UKMO in particular looks very windy on Tuesday with more of a direct hit for Ireland.

Meteorite58

UKMO +144hrs




ECMWF +144hrs

sdanseo

Meant to be flying at 10am Tuesday. Could be fun!

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1103407299476025362


https://twitter.com/JjRosenburg/status/1103416092800753665

typhoony

as is typical of this time of year the battle begins next week between winter finishing and spring starting. I'd say by Paddys day we'll see spring in charge weather wise. I wonder will we get an April Easterly this year?

sryanbruen

Well I posted in the Spring discussion thread that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for those who would like some drier and warmer conditions.

There continues to be these signals starting next week with high pressure ascending from the south though timing and position will obviously be impossible to tell.

GFS 18z shows the high pressure just to the south of us at times but at other times over us with the jet stream being pushed northwards if maybe a bit close for comfort to delivering great sunshine to the north.

Chart for +210 hrs away showing high pressure centred around the Bay of Biscay drawing in milder west to southwesterly winds over Ireland and maybe a fair amount of cloud at first. These winds become more southeasterly a few days following it and the run has a lot of high pressure after this.



ECM 12z delayed the ascendance of the high to our shores but it gets there in the end with the prospect for good spells of sunshine and mild/warm temperatures.



CFSv2 continues to project high pressure dominating during the final week of March and into April.

It's all a long way off and this is the Fantasy Island thread after all so pure speculation. If these signs continue though, we should see the weather ushering in a drier and calmer spell towards the second half of this month. As the saying goes, March comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb.

EDIT: Just noticed that this is a Winter FI charts thread?

Harry Palmr

Noticed that myself and let out an internal yelp of delight while telling myself it'll probably be gone by this time tomorrow! Please be true, I need to get gardening.

Donegal Storm

Its been a dreadful first half to the month here, hasn't stopped raining for more than a few hours since the start of the month, should be seeing a stretch in the evenings by now but street lights are still coming on around 5pm most evenings with the constant dark, wet conditions. Seriously craving some bright sunny weather now

sryanbruen

More signs of the weather settling down by this time next week onwards from the ensembles of both the GFS and ECM.

ECM clusters show high pressure establishing over us is currently the most favoured option (cluster #1) with cluster #3 also similar but maybe much more of a chance of sunny spells with #3 as #1 looks cloudy in nature. Cluster #2 is more unsettled but not a total washout and similar to M.T.'s forecast. Cluster #3 looks like one that would produce unusually warm temperatures if it were to verify but that's the least likely option out of the 3 right now.



GEFS looks like a cloudier scenario with the jet stream fairly close by but conditions generally on the dry side with high pressure laying just to the south of us.

stephenjmcd

sryanbruen wrote: »

More signs of the weather settling down by this time next week onwards from the ensembles of both the GFS and ECM.

ECM clusters show high pressure establishing over us is currently the most favoured option (cluster #1) with cluster #3 also similar but maybe much more of a chance of sunny spells with #3 as #1 looks cloudy in nature. Cluster #2 is more unsettled but not a total washout and similar to M.T.'s forecast. Cluster #3 looks like one that would produce unusually warm temperatures if it were to verify but that's the least likely option out of the 3 right now.



GEFS looks like a cloudier scenario with the jet stream fairly close by but conditions generally on the dry side with high pressure laying just to the south of us.

Some week I picked for the South of Spain. If this comes off then it'll probably be a wash out down there

Carol25

While it’s lovely to get nice weather in March...If I had to choose between a high pressure in March or one in June/July, it’d pick the summer every time. I don’t think a settled spell in late March bodes well for the summer going on previous years...but I am open to being corrected on that 🀔

Gonzo

I don't mind unsettled muck between now and mid May. Let the cold and snow wait till next December and let the settled high pressures and southerly winds/plumes wait for the Summer.

sryanbruen

Carol25 wrote: »

While it’s lovely to get nice weather in March...If I had to choose between a high pressure in March or one in June/July, it’d pick the summer every time. I don’t think a settled spell in late March bodes well for the summer going on previous years...but I am open to being corrected on that ��

It does not bode well if it's a significant high that either lasts for a prolonged period of time or produces some unusual warmth most years (March 1990 is one exception that comes to mind).

Keep in mind, clusters #1 and especially #2 could have a lot of cloud producing drizzle as the air mass looks mild and moist, despite #1 looking high pressure dominated initially. Cluster #3 is the kind of scenario that would deliver that I described above.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't mind unsettled muck between now and mid May. Let the cold and snow wait till next December and let the settled high pressures and southerly winds/plumes wait for the Summer.

I don't want to derail the thread but I wouldn't mind more of this weather until mid or late April. It's the most interesting weather we've had since November in my opinion. If we can get more northwesterlies then great.

To make this sort of on topic since we're talking about summer a bit, at the moment I think it's going to be front loaded, we are seriously overdue a notably good August though... we have had some slightly better than average ones but nothing that stands out.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't mind unsettled muck between now and mid May. Let the cold and snow wait till next December and let the settled high pressures and southerly winds/plumes wait for the Summer.

If only the weather Gods agreed with you. I knew we would pay for the unusual warmth in February come March.
Personally i hope we get a summer, which has frequent visitors from the Bay of Biscay. We have not had decent thunderstorms from this area in a while.

Elmer Blooker

Carol25 wrote: »

While it’s lovely to get nice weather in March...If I had to choose between a high pressure in March or one in June/July, it’d pick the summer every time. I don’t think a settled spell in late March bodes well for the summer going on previous years...but I am open to being corrected on that ��

Agree, good summers seem to be extremely rare after warm springs. Hopefully April will be cool and unsettled.
High pressure in March is like northern blocking in November - you hope its a sign of things to come for winter but deep down you know its coming too early and is just a complete waste!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2018112000/ECM1-0.GIF?00

Gonzo

looks like we should get a bit of a respite from all the rain soon enough, with slightly less unsettled conditions after this weekend.

Latest ensembles shows Dublin area getting much less rain from Monday onwards with high pressure becoming more of an influence, along with milder temperatures. We could do with a change as this has been mostly a wet, cold and miserable month so far.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Have closed this thread for now and opened a FI Spring discussion thread.

Thanks

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057967029