How would the government work in a "United Ireland"?

Beta Ray Bill

So at the moment it looks as if the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

If this happens, it will mean a border between the ROI and NI, and if that happens, it's more than likely a border poll will be triggered.

In this hypothetical scenario, both the ROI and NI vote for reunification.
In terms of government how will that work?

There are 90 seats in the NI Assembly, with a population of 1.875M
That means 20,833 people per seat
There are 158 seats in the Dail, with a population of 4.784M
That means 30,278 people per seat

So first off, the Numbers per seat don't add up, so the below is adjusted for that.

So,
Will NI Seats be reduced to 62 Seats ( 1.875M / 30,278 ) and then those 62 added to the Dail to make a total of 220?
Will 220 people even fit in the Dail?
OR
Will we still have 158 Seats in the Dail and the number per seat increased to 42,145 (6.659M / 158 )
In this version some areas in the south stand to lose a seat in the Dail. (Areas in the North stand to lose a seat too but not as much, NI population density 133/km2 -vs- ROI population density 69.1/km2)

The next thing is what will happen the non-Sinn Fein parties? Will they "rebrand"? Will they merge with Parties from the South? Or will their members just leave and join parties in the south?

One thing is for sure, Sinn Fein stand to do very well, if reunification were to happen.
In a Dail with 220 seats they would have a total of 21+(27/3)*2 = 39
In a Dail with 158 seats I think they would do even better, as a lot of their votes come from working class in cities, which now would have more votes. I'd guess maybe 32 or 33 seats
Note: that this doesn't take into account SDLP which currently have 12 seats, those seats could easily be lost to Sinn Fein.

In theory, could we be looking at a Sinn Fein led Government in the 2020's with Gerry Adams as President of Ireland?

grahambo

grahambo wrote: »

So at the moment it looks as if the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

If this happens, it will mean a border between the ROI and NI, and if that happens it's more than likely a border poll will be triggered.

In this hypothetical scenario, both the ROI and NI vote for reunification.
In terms of government how will that work?

There are 90 seats in the NI Assembly, with a population of 1.875M
That means 20,833 people per seat
There are 158 seats in the Dail, with a population of 4.784M
That means 30,278 people per seat

So first off, the Numbers per seat don't add up, so the below is adjusted for that.

So,
Will NI Seats be reduced to 62 Seats ( 1.875M / 30,278 ) and then those 62 added to the Dail to make a total of 220?
Will 220 people even fit in the Dail?
OR
Will we still have 158 Seats in the Dail and the number per seat increased to 42,145 (6.659M / 158 )
In this version some areas in the south stand to lose a seat in the Dail. (Areas in the North stand to lose a seat too but not as much)

The next thing is what will happen the non-Sinn Fein parties? Will they "rebrand"? Will they merge with Parties from the South? Or will their members just leave and join parties in the south?

One things is for sure, Sinn Fein stand to do very well, if reunification were to happen.
In a Dail with 220 seats they would have a total of 21+(27/3)*2 = 39
In a Dail with 158 seats I think they would do even better, as a lot of their votes come from working class in cities, which now would have more votes. I'd guess maybe 32 or 33 seats
Note: that this doesn't take into account SDLP which currently have 12 seats, those seats could easily be lost to Sinn Fein.

In theory, could we be looking at a Sinn Fein led Government in the 2020's with Gerry Adams are President of Ireland?

i think it highly unlikely SF could rely on maintaining their ratio from NI if other political parties on the island had an increased onus to run there

loyatemu

I'd expect some sort of constitutional convention with a new constitution emerging, so who knows really.

If Martin McGuinness couldn't get elected president I can't see Gerry getting in even with the addition of northern votes, though if he was up against the same calibre of candidates we saw this year...

Laois_Man

Its a well thought out post - but even the best case scenario presented (32/33 seats) wouldn't be enough to cause a SF led Government

It would also require an attitude change in SF whereby today, does anybody believe they actually want to be in Government?

Beta Ray Bill

Laois_Man wrote: »

Its a well thought out post - but even the best case scenario presented (32/33 seats) wouldn't be enough to cause a SF led Government

It would also require an attitude change in SF whereby today, does anybody believe they actually want to be in Government?

If they took the SDLP seats that could go above 40, wouldn't that be enough to be a major party in a coalition government?

Bare in mind all the other Southern parties stand to lose seats (158 Dail) or have their majority watered down (220 Dail).

I'd find it hard to believe that anyone in NI would vote for Labour/FF/FG (could be wrong though)

Squatter

Laois_Man wrote: »

It would also require an attitude change in SF whereby today, does anybody believe they actually want to be in Government?

My view is that whereas they don't want to "be in government" i.e. be the hind tit in some coalition arrangement; but they would love to govern.

FredFunk

Theoretically there would be no need for half the parties if unification occurred. Most of the northern parties especially SF (in the north) and DUP only exist to oppose each other, they can't even form an assembly. Parties are already teasing out alliances, example being FF and SDLP.
If the assembly up North was working properly then it could act as a functioning body during some sort of transition period. There are enough representatives in the Dail, so the numbers up North would need to reduce. Note they also elect MPs up north and I am sure the ratio between MP and average number of voters is much greater.

Beta Ray Bill

Squatter wrote: »

My view is that whereas they don't want to "be in government" i.e. be the hind tit in some coalition arrangement; but they would love to govern.

That's my thought on it too.
They'll go in, but only as the Major party.

Podge_irl

grahambo wrote: »

If they took the SDLP seats that could go above 40, wouldn't that be enough to be a major party in a coalition government?

Bare in mind all the other Southern parties stand to lose seats (158 Dail) or have their majority watered down (220 Dail).

I'd find it hard to believe that anyone in NI would vote for Labour/FF/FG (could be wrong though)

There has to be a member of the Dail for at least every 30,000 people and not more than for every 20,000.

Of course, considering the constitution will probably need wholesale changes if not complete re-writing that may not be relevant.

Beta Ray Bill

Podge_irl wrote: »

There has to be a member of the Dail for at least every 30,000 people and not more than for every 20,000.

Of course, considering the constitution will probably need wholesale changes if not complete re-writing that may not be relevant.

So does that mean we'd have a Dail of 220 then?
I'm not overly familiar with the rules, but +40k is a no-go... is that what you're saying?

eagle eye

A United Ireland won't happen. If they want to leave the UK they can go it alone.
We can't afford it and we don't want the troubles back either.

Podge_irl

grahambo wrote: »

So does that mean we'd have a Dail of 220 then?
I'm not overly familiar with the rules, but +40k is a no-go... is that what you're saying?

Yes. There is a (current) constitutional requirement for at least one member for every 30,000 people.

In reality what would likely happen is an larger Dail but with some element of autonomy for NI that would be faded out over time.

ceegee

What would Sinn Fein's selling point be post-unification? Take out a united Ireland from their sales pitch and you're mostly left with some half baked plans with little economic reality.
Particularly in a situation where unification comes about through the UK imploding rather than anything SF are doing

Beta Ray Bill

eagle eye wrote: »

A United Ireland won't happen. If they want to leave the UK they can go it alone.
We can't afford it and we don't want the troubles back either.

I'd be in the same boat as you, and would vote against reunification.

There would be a couple of things that could change my mind though.
If the EU were to give us massive support, which they probably would given Land is the only thing they aren't making more of. (unless you're Dutch).

And if it were a case of "Them joining us" and not "Us joining together"
IE status quo maintained in the South, NI does all the adapting.

ceegee wrote: »

What would Sinn Fein's selling point be post-unification? Take out a united Ireland from their sales pitch and you're mostly left with some half baked plans with little economic reality.
Particularly in a situation where unification comes about through the UK imploding rather than anything SF are doing

I think you're assuming the average SF voter is quite intelligent, and thinks about these things
SF are coming into a position similar to a position FF were in 20 years ago, IE "my Dad voted for his Dad, So my Son will vote for his Son".

Squatter

eagle eye wrote: »

A United Ireland won't happen. If they want to leave the UK they can go it alone.
We can't afford it and we don't want the troubles back either.

I suspect (and fear) that the outcome of an island-wide referendum might shock you! Especially if we (in the South) allow our emigrants to vote in future referenda, as has been discussed.

troyzer

grahambo wrote: »

So at the moment it looks as if the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

If this happens, it will mean a border between the ROI and NI, and if that happens, it's more than likely a border poll will be triggered.

In this hypothetical scenario, both the ROI and NI vote for reunification.
In terms of government how will that work?

There are 90 seats in the NI Assembly, with a population of 1.875M
That means 20,833 people per seat
There are 158 seats in the Dail, with a population of 4.784M
That means 30,278 people per seat

So first off, the Numbers per seat don't add up, so the below is adjusted for that.

So,
Will NI Seats be reduced to 62 Seats ( 1.875M / 30,278 ) and then those 62 added to the Dail to make a total of 220?
Will 220 people even fit in the Dail?
OR
Will we still have 158 Seats in the Dail and the number per seat increased to 42,145 (6.659M / 158 )
In this version some areas in the south stand to lose a seat in the Dail. (Areas in the North stand to lose a seat too but not as much, NI population density 133/km2 -vs- ROI population density 69.1/km2)

The next thing is what will happen the non-Sinn Fein parties? Will they "rebrand"? Will they merge with Parties from the South? Or will their members just leave and join parties in the south?

One thing is for sure, Sinn Fein stand to do very well, if reunification were to happen.
In a Dail with 220 seats they would have a total of 21+(27/3)*2 = 39
In a Dail with 158 seats I think they would do even better, as a lot of their votes come from working class in cities, which now would have more votes. I'd guess maybe 32 or 33 seats
Note: that this doesn't take into account SDLP which currently have 12 seats, those seats could easily be lost to Sinn Fein.

In theory, could we be looking at a Sinn Fein led Government in the 2020's with Gerry Adams as President of Ireland?

Any United Ireland solution would require a federal system which could even reduce the amount of national representatives required.

Something like a 100 body parliament in each province and a 150, four province federal Oireachtas in Dublin.

The SDLP are already merging with Fianna Fáil. The Greens would merge with the southern Greens and the Alliance would likely merge with the Soc Dems or Labour after a few years.

The UUP and DUP would carry on. The UUP would possibly lose support to Fine Gael but would likely still exist long term. The DUP and their support would only harden. There are no other Northern Irish parties of note.

The Sinn Féin vote would start to die away in the North in a United Ireland. Most of their support even at the moment is conditional on a FPTP system and simply opposition to unionism. Both of these would be gone in a United Ireland. It's an artificial party in the North made up by inner city Trotskyites and rural conservatives united only be their common Republicanism. There's no way that coalition survives in a united Ireland.

Podge_irl

grahambo wrote: »

And if it were a case of "Them joining us" and not "Us joining together"
IE status quo maintained in the South, NI does all the adapting.

Sounds like a perfect recipe for success...

Firstly, it remains unlikely to happen in the short-term. Secondly, there will be a huge amount of upheaval and change required on both sides to make it a success. The EU would definitely provide a lot of support for it though.

eagle eye

Squatter wrote:

I suspect (and fear) that the outcome of an island-wide referendum might shock you! Especially if we (in the South) allow our emigrants to vote in future referenda, as has been discussed.

I know it would never get to a referendum because the guns would be out long before that.

Podge_irl

troyzer wrote: »

Any United Ireland solution would require a federal system which could even reduce the amount of national representatives required.

Something like a 100 body parliament in each province and a 150, four province federal Oireachtas in Dublin.

A federal system in a country the size of Ireland would be nonsensical. On top of which a federal system based on provinces would not be acceptable to the unionist element in the current North anyway - only one that gave the current country of Northern Ireland some autonomy.

VinLieger

troyzer wrote: »

Any United Ireland solution would require a federal system which could even reduce the amount of national representatives required.

Something like a 100 body parliament in each province and a 150, four province federal Oireachtas in Dublin.

What you propose increases the number of representatives though?


Also it sounds horrendous and completely pointless in a country the size of Ireland

troyzer

Podge_irl wrote: »

A federal system in a country the size of Ireland would be nonsensical. On top of which a federal system based on provinces would not be acceptable to the unionist element in the current North anyway - only one that gave the current country of Northern Ireland some autonomy.

VinLieger wrote: »

What you propose increases the number of representatives though?


Also it sounds horrendous and completely pointless in a country the size of Ireland

I don't propose increasing the number of national representative.

Federal systems do exist in small countries. A United Ireland would have a population of around 6.5 million and a proposed four province federation.

Switzerland is around 8.4 million and has a 26 canton federation. It works.

Belgium is around 11.4 million, it has three federal regions. It doesn't work as well.

Austria is around 9 million and has nine states. Works pretty well.

Bosnia probably has the smallest federation in the world with around 3.5 million and is divided in two. This could also work in Ireland because of the similar issues that forced the federal settlement in the 90s. Their system does work but their federal parliament is probably one of the weakest in the world. Nearly all of the real governing is done at the state level.

It's not impossible, small countries can be divided up quite finely and we're only talking about four in the case of Ireland. Not to mention that it would largely replace county councils and would lead to more joined up thinking.

It would also take much of the Parish pump out of the Oireachtas which is desperately needed. Federalism is something we should consider even without the North.

The Unionists being unwilling to accept their vote being diluted by Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan is a realistic concern. These could be added to Connacht to bring their numbers up.

You could also have a US style carve out in the Seanad with a set number of spots for each province which means the Unionists will have a proper voice in the upper chamber.

Podge_irl

Switzerland was created as a federation though. If they replace county councils then fine, they are basically glorified county councils. But they would not have any real federal powers. Cantons can set their own tax rates and have all manner of power which these set-ups would realistically not have. We are over-represented for sure and you need too few votes to be elected to the Dail which is the source of so much parish-pump politics. But I do not think federalism is the answer to that. A carve-out of some kind of federalist state for NI would be a necessary but preferably temporary solution I think.

The best thing about unification would be having Belfast as a city that could actually act as a proper counterpoint to Dublin politically.

VinLieger

troyzer wrote: »

I don't propose increasing the number of national representative.

You are proposing 400 new regional representatives, unless you are saying we should scrap all city, town and county councils and subsume them into the provincial assemblies?


I don't see how such an idea would ever work given how localised Irish people like their politicians and issues.


Having 100 body provincial assemblies in the current regional politics Irish mindset where everyone is a "Me feiner" me nothing ever got done as nobody could ever reach a consensus on anything as everyone would be looking to take care of their own issues first.

Also those countries and systems were created as federal states or have been that way for a long time, making such a change in this day and age from what we currently havewould be nowhere near as easy as you are trying to make out.

troyzer

VinLieger wrote: »

You are proposing 400 new regional representatives, unless you are saying we should scrap all city, town and county councils and subsume them into the provincial assemblies?


I don't see how such an idea would ever work given how localised Irish people like their politicians and issues.


Having 100 body provincial assemblies in the current regional politics Irish mindset where everyone is a "Me feiner" me nothing ever got done as nobody could ever reach a consensus on anything as everyone would be looking to take care of their own issues first.

Also those countries and systems were created as federal states or have been that way for a long time, making such a change in this day and age from what we currently havewould be nowhere near as easy as you are trying to make out.

You would be able to get rid of most of the county councils whilst giving the city councils some more teeth. This is something which is happening already.

There are 949 local government representatives at the moment, you could get rid of most of them. I don't know how you can criticise my idea for both including too many representatives and also cutting representatives at the same time.

I never said it would be easy, it would be incredibly difficult. But the only way a United Ireland would ever happen is with a federal system. I also think people in Dublin for the most part couldn't care less about the Parish pump issues and a lot of rural Irish people wouldn't be against the idea of bringing more power back to the locality and not have to worry about decision making in Dublin as much.

Podge_irl

troyzer wrote: »

I never said it would be easy, it would be incredibly difficult. But the only way a United Ireland would ever happen is with a federal system. I also think people in Dublin for the most part couldn't care less about the Parish pump issues and a lot of rural Irish people wouldn't be against the idea of bringing more power back to the locality and not have to worry about decision making in Dublin as much.

Sure, but the real question is what power would they actually get? Without an ability to levy their own taxes and raise their own income they are not going to realistically actually have any real power.

Tell me how

eagle eye wrote: »

A United Ireland won't happen. If they want to leave the UK they can go it alone.
We can't afford it and we don't want the troubles back either.

I expect that some day it will happen. But not as an immediate consequence of Brexit. That would be ill conceived, reactionary and still too much resentment amongst communities for it to be accepted by all sides.

Talking at least another 10 years and even then there are so many scenarios it is like predicting the weather that far out.

troyzer

Podge_irl wrote: »

Sure, but the real question is what power would they actually get? Without an ability to levy their own taxes and raise their own income they are not going to realistically actually have any real power.

Give them rates, property taxes and maybe a small income tax. You run the risk of the provinces trying to undercut each as in the states but that's just the risk you take.

The more responsibilities you give them, the more tax the exchequer would have to forgo.

Give the provinces responsibility for policing and an NHS trust style system would be a start. You could also split responsibility for infrastructure and housing.

It would be a hugely complicated job to sort out but it's definitely possible.

snotboogie

Podge_irl wrote: »

A federal system in a country the size of Ireland would be nonsensical. On top of which a federal system based on provinces would not be acceptable to the unionist element in the current North anyway - only one that gave the current country of Northern Ireland some autonomy.

Amazing how this lie gets trotted out over and over again. There are federal systems all over Europe in countries which are a similar size and population to a United Ireland.

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Talking at least another 10 years and even then there are so many scenarios it is like predicting the weather that far out.

The most predictable thing about the United Ireland question is that, in my lifetime anyway, people will always be saying it's 10-years away!

Podge_irl

snotboogie wrote: »

Amazing how this lie gets trotted out over and over again. There are federal systems all over Europe in countries which are a similar size and population to a United Ireland.

That doesn't necessarily mean they make any sense. The fact they exist elsewhere does not in any way invalidate the idea that they are not desirable for Ireland.

Tell me how

snotboogie wrote: »

Amazing how this lie gets trotted out over and over again. There are federal systems all over Europe in countries which are a similar size and population to a United Ireland.

Examples please which you think are comparable to a country such as Ireland?