Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Thomas_IV

seamus wrote: »

Davis is most likely another one who's moved all his money offshore. The UK holding out for unicorns is in his best interests.

Sure, just like JRM who transferred his to the Republic of Ireland.

Enzokk

EdgeCase wrote: »

This all stems from a notion that if the UK stands there holding a gun to its own head that the EU will have to give it everything it wants to avoid a financial meltdown.

It's the most deranged and irresponsible diplomacy I have ever witnessed.

This attitude was prevalent with the Brexitcast podcast from the BBC as well. The attitude that the EU always compromises at the end of the negotiations so they will give ground at the last minute. I think they are missing a few crucial points in that this is not a trade negotiation yet and the things the UK is asking for cannot be compromised on, but what do I know.

Thomas_IV

EdgeCase wrote: »

They'll blame whoever the tabloids decide to blame and the finger pointing certianly will not be directed at themselves. That's the one thing you can be very sure of.

The scapegoat is alreay in place as the hostile environment has pointed it (them) out.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

The problem with that strategy is the EU will also assume that the UK government and its negotiators are grown ups.

No, I think after 2 years that the EU are well aware that the UK government are complete idiots.


They were apparently very surprised to learn this during the talks, but they know now.


They also know there is no point in trying to do the UK government any favours - they reluctantly agreed to May's request to extend the backstop CU to the whole UK from just NI...


... and not one person in the UK recognized it as a concession. In fact, they immediately started complaining about the EU demanding the UK stay in a CU.

Thomas_IV

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, I think after 2 years that the EU are well aware that the UK government are complete idiots.


They were apparently very surprised to learn this during the talks, but they know now.


They also know there is no point in trying to do the UK government any favours - they reluctantly agreed to May's request to extend the backstop CU to the whole UK from just NI...


... and not one person in the UK recognized it as a concession. In fact, they immediately started complaining about the EU demanding the UK stay in a CU.

The EU is right to treat the present UK govt as grown ups cos they have to be held accountable for what they have done (wasted much time during the negotiation period and always cling on to their own delusions) and still are doing (following their own delusions in hope that at the very last minute, the EU will give in which is out of question).

I just like to ask for not forgetting about the DUP in all this cos they are the very ones who opposed every compromise during the negotiations since they have become the backers of the Tory minority govt. The DUP shouldn't get away with it and be held to account for their own actions.

When looking at the Dinosaur Unionist Party from NI, I really can understand every Irish person who opposes a UI with the prospect to having to deal with that sort of people in a UI as they are mischiefs and troublemakers but in no way responsible and rational politicians. In fact, imv the DUP is nothing but the 'political arm' of the Orange Order and everybody on the Island of Ireland (and recently in GB as well) knows what they are. They are worse than the Shinners and that really means something and I say that as being no SF sympathiser myself.

EdgeCase

It was really shocking that May, despite everyone who knew anything about NI politics and the DUP warning her not to do it, just went ahead and did it anyway.

It's made Brexit undeliverable, effectively extended the NI Assembly deadlock as the DUP have no incentive to share power, removed any perception of neutrality of the UK government as a guardian of the GFA and even has the potential to derail a delicately balanced peace that took about 30 years to achieve.

Thomas_IV

EdgeCase wrote: »

It was really shocking that May, despite everyone who knew anything about NI politics and the DUP warning her not to do it, just went ahead and did it anyway.

It's made Brexit undeliverable, effectively extended the NI Assembly deadlock as the DUP have no incentive to share power, removed any perception of neutrality of the UK government as a guardian of the GFA and even has the potential to derail a delicately balanced peace that took about 30 years to achieve.

Power corrupts and after May lost her from Cameron inherited majority in the Commons but was determined to stay on as PM, she engated herself with the 'devils pact'.

I haven't been following recent developments in NI on the subject of the DUP's involvement but I am still (well, not really) surprised that the people in NI which by a majority voted for Remain aren't doing anything to protest against them.

Zubeneschamali

Thomas_IV wrote: »

The EU is right to treat the present UK govt as grown ups cos they have to be held accountable for what they have done

Not the EUs problem, but we all know they won't be held properly accountable.


It'd be nice to imagine the Lib Dems winning an overall majority when Tory/Labour spoofery about Brexit is shown to be utter nonsense, but it will not happen. In 15 years, Corbyn's successor will be facing May's at the dispatch box, and the MPs will be yelling and hear-hearing, and Westminster will be as it has been for so many years.


They will just be arguing about a much smaller pie, and no-one outside England will much care anymore.

Thomas_IV

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not the EUs problem, but we all know they won't be held properly accountable.

Sure, but I expect many and heavy riots to start and going on (for longer than what one has seen back in 2010) once the suffering from Brexit starts.

It'd be nice to imagine the Lib Dems winning an overall majority when Tory/Labour spoofery about Brexit is shown to be utter nonsense, but it will not happen. In 15 years, Corbyn's successor will be facing May's at the dispatch box, and the MPs will be yelling and hear-hearing, and Westminster will be as it has been for so many years.

I think that you're right about that.

They will just be arguing about a much smaller pie, and no-one outside England will much care anymore.

All depends on whether the present UK crashes out of the EU with no deal which means no transition period and an hard Brexit immediately from 30th March 2019, or with the one deal on offer which is still likely to be voted down next week. The latter makes the former more realistic in consequence of rejecting the deal in Parliament.

Depending on the result, the time for an IndyRef2 in Scotland will be either shorter or just a bit delayed, but it'll come to that. Then it will be left to the people in Scotland to decide on their own future.

josip

I can't imagine that Simon Coveney's remarks will convince any hard Brexiting MPs to change their minds. I think that between now and the end of March all Irish politicians should just repeat "We await and respect whatever decision the UK parliament arrives at", regardless of the question they're asked.
Otherwise, it's simply ammunition for the media outlet to fire off.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/mps-must-stop-wishful-thinking-and-back-may-on-brexit-irish-deputy-pm-simon-coveney

Elsewhere on the Guardian, German industrial output slumped at the end of last year.
I would expect that David Davis sees that as all the more reason to hold on until the EU blink and give in.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jan/08/german-slowdown-industrial-output-recession-fears-uk-house-prices-stock-markets-business-live

Enzokk

EdgeCase wrote: »

It was really shocking that May, despite everyone who knew anything about NI politics and the DUP warning her not to do it, just went ahead and did it anyway.

It's made Brexit undeliverable, effectively extended the NI Assembly deadlock as the DUP have no incentive to share power, removed any perception of neutrality of the UK government as a guardian of the GFA and even has the potential to derail a delicately balanced peace that took about 30 years to achieve.

She doesn't even have the excuse that she wasn't warned. Her desire to stay as PM was more important than anything, and even now all her actions are to keep her in No.10 for as long as possible.

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Power corrupts and after May lost her from Cameron inherited majority in the Commons but was determined to stay on as PM, she engated herself with the 'devils pact'.

I haven't been following recent developments in NI on the subject of the DUP's involvement but I am still (well, not really) surprised that the people in NI which by a majority voted for Remain aren't doing anything to protest against them.

I am by no means an expert in the politics of NI but it does seem to me that the historical tensions mean that even when the party you support screws up you are stuck doing nothing as the other option is to support the other side which cannot happen.

As for NI and progress, this tweet seems to sum up where we are right now.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1082582285185110016

Sam McBride - "A year ago today, Karen Bradley was appointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. That day she said her "top priority" in the "exciting" role was to restore Stormont. Since then, attempts to revive devolution have gone into reverse & now there are not even plans for talks."

bob mcbob

cryptocurrency wrote: »

People find a few loons and the media is all over it. They never show the genome of the leftie loons who are at that craic all the time. It's all distasteful but let's be honest the left leaning folk who are that loud could outnumber his kind 10 to 1 in the UK.

What like Thomas Mair who murdered Jo Cox a Labour MP, because he disagreed with her political views. That sort of loon?

Keatsian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am really amazed that young people are taking all of this so quietly- their future is about to go up in smoke, and they are Keeping Calm and Carrying On. Why haven't 5 million of them marched on Westminster and threatened to burn it down?

Regardless of how bad an idea leaving is, the EU doesn't inspire that kind of passion in anyone but middle-aged lawyers and academics.

Leroy42

josip wrote: »

I can't imagine that Simon Coveney's remarks will convince any hard Brexiting MPs to change their minds. I think that between now and the end of March all Irish politicians should just repeat "We await and respect whatever decision the UK parliament arrives at", regardless of the question they're asked.
Otherwise, it's simply ammunition for the media outlet to fire off.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/mps-must-stop-wishful-thinking-and-back-may-on-brexit-irish-deputy-pm-simon-coveney

Elsewhere on the Guardian, German industrial output slumped at the end of last year.
I would expect that David Davis sees that as all the more reason to hold on until the EU blink and give in.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jan/08/german-slowdown-industrial-output-recession-fears-uk-house-prices-stock-markets-business-live

Davis position shows the contradictory nature of their argument. Apparently, it is completely fine for the UK to suffer some economic negatives in order to control their laws/borders etc, but the EU will have to give in on their rules in order to avoid financial negatives.

listermint

seamus wrote: »

Davis is most likely another one who's moved all his money offshore. The UK holding out for unicorns is in his best interests.

Oh you can count on it, him the likes of Patel / Mogg. They all have investments are and just counting down the days to make hay on collapsed assets.

They wont be seen in government once it all goes on you will see retirements left right and centre.

Sunning themselves in the south of France laughing at everyone.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

She doesn't even have the excuse that she wasn't warned. Her desire to stay as PM was more important than anything, and even now all her actions are to keep her in No.10 for as long as possible.





I am by no means an expert in the politics of NI but it does seem to me that the historical tensions mean that even when the party you support screws up you are stuck doing nothing as the other option is to support the other side which cannot happen.

As for NI and progress, this tweet seems to sum up where we are right now.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1082582285185110016

Sam McBride - "A year ago today, Karen Bradley was appointed Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. That day she said her "top priority" in the "exciting" role was to restore Stormont. Since then, attempts to revive devolution have gone into reverse & now there are not even plans for talks."

But this can't be true - this Tory government has told us repeatedly that they will not stand idly by as a situation develops which could threaten the integrity of their union...

Her face speaks volumes as to her success in that role..

Her appointment was and remains a slap in the face to everyone on this Island.

Strazdas

Keatsian wrote: »

Regardless of how bad an idea leaving is, the EU doesn't inspire that kind of passion in anyone but middle-aged lawyers and academics.

They don't need to protest 'for' the EU : they should be protesting 'against' their country being hijacked by a bunch of far right and alt right types and their press buddies who are busy shouting 'Democracy, democracy, democracy' from the rooftops.

Very strange how it is the English far right who are talking about 'democracy' all the time and the genuine moderates and centre ground people can hardly get a word in.

Enzokk

Here is a couple of voices from Labour wanting a no-deal and WTO terms. Seems no less crazy than the likes of JRM.

Why we should leave the EU on WTO terms - Brendan Chilton

The problems with this article starts of, well at the start. Spot the problem,

The United Kingdom’s prowess was built on global trade. And the strength and innovation that made such trade possible was built on the backs of working people over successive generations. The history of this country is written in commercial contacts. From shipbuilders on the Clyde to mills in Lancashire, from the potters of Stoke to the miners of South Wales and the traders in London, it was ordinary men and women who transformed this country from a small, middle-ranking nation off the coast of Europe into a global free-trading state. It was also these people who secured better working conditions and rights, through the trade-union movement, and who then exported those ideas around the globe.

Kate Hoey has had her say in a Telegraph article. She seems to be backing on article 24 of the WTO to ensure no trade tariffs between the UK and the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn must trust his instincts and back a no-deal Brexit

At the same time we could continue to work towards a new trading relationship with the EU. Article 24 of WTO rules allows for a tariff-free period while this is being done.

She also comments that they will get to keep their £39b from the divorce bill. Is it safe to assume that we can discard anyone that has this opinion?

Russman

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a couple of voices from Labour wanting a no-deal and WTO terms. Seems no less crazy than the likes of JRM.

Why we should leave the EU on WTO terms - Brendan Chilton

The problems with this article starts of, well at the start. Spot the problem,

I've just read that article, and really, there's almost no arguing with that kind of delusion/stupidity. He talks about them automatically getting the best trading terms - how ?? The mind boggles.

Keatsian

Strazdas wrote: »

They don't need to protest 'for' the EU : they should be protesting 'against' their country being hijacked by a bunch of far right and alt right types and their press buddies who are busy shouting 'Democracy, democracy, democracy' from the rooftops.

Very strange how it is the English far right who are talking about 'democracy' all the time and the genuine moderates and centre ground people can hardly get a word in.

Typically major protest movements emerge in response to something that affects, or threatens to affect, people's everyday lives in a very specific and tangible way, as in such examples as water charges and the 8th amendment in Ireland, fuel prices in France, and bus and train price hikes in Brazil in 2013.


You won't see a major protest movement kicking off because of the editorial position of tabloid newspapers or the existence of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a couple of voices from Labour wanting a no-deal and WTO terms. Seems no less crazy than the likes of JRM.

Why we should leave the EU on WTO terms - Brendan Chilton

The problems with this article starts of, well at the start. Spot the problem,

The United Kingdom’s prowess was built on global trade. And the strength and innovation that made such trade possible was built on the backs of working people over successive generations. The history of this country is written in commercial contacts. From shipbuilders on the Clyde to mills in Lancashire, from the potters of Stoke to the miners of South Wales and the traders in London, it was ordinary men and women who transformed this country from a small, middle-ranking nation off the coast of Europe into a global free-trading state. It was also these people who secured better working conditions and rights, through the trade-union movement, and who then exported those ideas around the globe.

It's funny right but that exact same sentence could just the same be heard coming out of the mouth of the most ardent Victorian era capitalist who saw people as nothing but a cheap and available resource to get rich off

Thomas_IV

Keatsian wrote: »

Typically major protest movements emerge in response to something that affects, or threatens to affect, people's everyday lives in a very specific and tangible way, as in such examples as water charges and the 8th amendment in Ireland, fuel prices in France, and bus and train price hikes in Brazil in 2013.


You won't see a major protest movement kicking off because of the editorial position of tabloid newspapers or the existence of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

You've already pointed it out and what isn't today might come very soon, sooner with a hard Brexit that's for sure.

Thomas_IV

lawred2 wrote: »

It's funny right but that exact same sentence could just the same be heard coming out of the mouth of the most ardent Victorian era capitalist who saw people as nothing but a cheap and available resource to get rich off

JRM is quite just the very type o that sort.

axer

Ireland would not object to Brexit delay, says Coveney

The Irish Government would not object to a request from the British government to delay Brexit should they seek an extension to avoid a damaging no-deal scenario, Tánaiste Simon Coveney has said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-would-not-object-to-brexit-delay-says-coveney-1.3751080

Is it realistically possible for the British Government to be able to even request an extension? Isn't the date hardcoded into UK legislation requiring the commons to vote to change it? Doesn't sound likely to be changed with the political divide at the moment. I'd imagine Labour will only agree as a party to vote to change it if a general election will be called unless some party members go against the whip. Otherwise at the moment we hit the current default position which is a no-deal brexit

Keatsian

axer wrote: »

Ireland would not object to Brexit delay, says Coveney

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-would-not-object-to-brexit-delay-says-coveney-1.3751080

Is it realistically possible for the British Government to be able to even request an extension? Isn't the date hardcoded into UK legislation requiring the commons to vote to change it? Doesn't sound likely to be changed with the political divide at the moment. I'd imagine Labour will only agree as a party to vote to change it if a general election will be called unless some party members go against the whip. Otherwise at the moment we hit the current default position which is a no-deal brexit

Ireland's position on this probably isn't shared by all our EU partners. If MPs can't accept this deal by March 29th there is no reason to think giving them an extra 6 months will change that. And the EU is clear it isn't reopening negotiations.

farmchoice

they can request it but its up to the 27 to agree to it.

one gets the feeling that once they go looking for an extension its the beginning of the end of Brexit, the whole thing is so mental that the minute any kinn of break is put on the whole thing it will cause the whole mad nightmare to slowly end.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a couple of voices from Labour wanting a no-deal and WTO terms. Seems no less crazy than the likes of JRM.

Why we should leave the EU on WTO terms - Brendan Chilton

The problems with this article starts of, well at the start. Spot the problem,

Never mind the irony of a Labour party member invoking British exceptionalism.

Enzokk wrote: »

Kate Hoey has had her say in a Telegraph article. She seems to be backing on article 24 of the WTO to ensure no trade tariffs between the UK and the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn must trust his instincts and back a no-deal Brexit

She also comments that they will get to keep their £39b from the divorce bill. Is it safe to assume that we can discard anyone that has this opinion?

Just to add to the idiocy there, but there's no article 24 in the WTO charter, it's from the GATT. And it's for two countries moving towards a customs union, not one country breaking away from one.

FreudianSlippers

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Go to any event and count the militant antfia

80 years ago they were called the Allies.

Dyr

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

80 years ago they were called the Allies.

They were called the red army.

FreudianSlippers

Leroy42 wrote: »

What the massive national debate going on when you were in your twenties?

And what was the access you had to information at the time?

We have 24 hour news, smartphones. Brexit is everywhere you look.

Speaking recently with a lot of English people and there is a concern that there is a narrative being portrayed to people (especially younger people) that "no deal Brexit" means things stay as they are. I don't see how anyone could just take that on board, but I heard it from English people living in England at the moment and on separate occasions, which was worrying.