Brexit Discussion Thread VI

axer

Peregrinus wrote: »

Given the government's majority, 20 pragmatic tories willing to vote against the government could well be a game-changer.

The particular issue at stake in this vote is not hugely significant in itself, but what the vote does mean is that there is a majority in the house willing to vote against the government in order to avert a no-deal Brexit, even if they don't know what the alternative is. In short, there is a majority who would rule out no-deal Brexit a priori, and require whatever is eventually delivered to be drawn from the menu of options that remain.

And that should give the ERG pause for thought. For, if we rule out no-deal Brexit, what remains is (a) Brexit on May's terms, or (b) no Brexit. (Any other possibility is just a fantasy at this point, and refinements like "ask for an A50 extension" dont' change the options, just the date on which the choice has to be made.) And this in turn means that if the ERG are successful in torpedoing May's Brexit, the likely upshot is no Brexit at all. Which should make them think twice about torpedoing May's Brexit.

But votes like this don't really matter. It doesn't really change anything. The real question is whether there are enough MPs to vote for a specific type of deal which really means are there enough votes to pass through legislation to force a delay or cancelling of A50. I think they are too divided to come together to do that. None of the other votes matter. Its down to vote for May's WA or vote for a delay or revoking of A50.

Thomas_IV

Leroy42 wrote: »

No way any Tory or DUP will vote in favour of a Labour No confidence motion. It would quite likely see them out of power for the next 10 years. Better to be in power making a mess of things than out of power.

Corbyn knows that, but he doesn't give much of a toss about it as he likes to have a 'little' gambling.

Tell me how

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50).
The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all.
Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:

https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)

"They called us names" Are. you. serious. Brendan?
"The EU has treated the UK voters terribly" What about Farage stating how he wanted to destroy the EU.
"17.4M People made a conscious, clever, adult decision" 1.5B ads/ day to 7M people probably had an influence I suspect.

J Mysterio

Tell me how wrote: »

Labour have said today that they will forward a motion of No Confidence if she loses the Brexit vote. I'm not holding my breath that his will happen until they actually do so but if it does proceed, could we see enough conservatives vote for Theresa May's government just to retain power?

If not, then GE it is.

I imagine the DUP haggling will be immense between the declaration of the motion and the actual vote if it goes this way.

If it goes to a GE, the DUP can slink back to obscurity in NI and wait for the fallout.

FreudianSlippers

J Mysterio wrote: »

If it goes to a GE, the DUP can slink back to obscurity in NI and wait for the fallout.

Wasn't there polling recently showing shift of support from DUP to UUP?

J Mysterio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50).
The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all.
Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:

https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)

I heard this disgraceful jackass this morning too. I was appalled that he was given the platform and doubly appalled that Shane Coleman gave him such am easy ride, useless 'discussion'.

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote: »

If it goes to a GE, the DUP can slink back to obscurity in NI and wait for the fallout.

Exactly, which is why they will look to bargain their votes to keep Conservatives in power.

J Mysterio

Tell me how wrote: »

Exactly, which is why they will look to bargain their votes to keep Conservatives in power.

Just as they, Mogg and the ERG, stated that May had their "full support" following the Tory confidence vote, before reverting to their plotting.

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote: »

I heard this disgraceful jackass this morning too. I was appalled that he was given the platform and doubly appalled that Shane Coleman gave him such am easy ride, useless 'discussion'.

I disagree 100% with this. Alternative views have to be given at least some air space or else all we get is US type echo chambers.

I thought Shane was ok, he called him on a couple of points such as saying that nobody actually stopped to think before the referendum as to where exactly their food came from. I would have rathered Pat Kenny speaking with Brendan mind, think he would have been more direct.

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just as they, Mogg and the ERG, stated that May had their "full support" following the Tory confidence vote, before reverting to their plotting.

I'm re-watching Game of Thrones at the moment. Was thinking the other night that what we have seen with Brexit is equally as enthralling.

Littlefinger would be shewed up and spat out in West Minister.

J Mysterio

Talk about being in contempt of Parliament... Cabinet ministers now advocating some other dirty tricks while Cooper and others wage a 'guerrilla' war against Brexit...

"Theresa May is being urged to wield her powers as prime minister to ensure Brexit is forced through – regardless of whether there is a successful vote of no confidence against her government.

"Brexiteer ministers have indicated that even if the no-confidence vote planned by Labour goes against her, it would be in her gift to set the date of an ensuing election after Brexit Day on March 29.

"One cabinet minister backing the plan told The Independent it would mean Ms May could steer the country out of the EU with or without a deal before going to the polls in early April, adding: “The public are saying, ‘just f***ing get on with it’.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-confidence-vote-meaningful-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a8718806.html

Thomas_IV

J Mysterio wrote: »

Talk about being in contempt of Parliament... Cabinet ministers now advocating some other dirty tricks while Cooper and others wage a 'guerrilla' war against Brexit...

"Theresa May is being urged to wield her powers as prime minister to ensure Brexit is forced through – regardless of whether there is a successful vote of no confidence against her government.

"Brexiteer ministers have indicated that even if the no-confidence vote planned by Labour goes against her, it would be in her gift to set the date of an ensuing election after Brexit Day on March 29.

"One cabinet minister backing the plan told The Independent it would mean Ms May could steer the country out of the EU with or without a deal before going to the polls in early April, adding: “The public are saying, ‘just f***ing get on with it’.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-confidence-vote-meaningful-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a8718806.html

Well, that seems to be the plan which might just work in case Corbyn fails to bring her down and gets an earlier date (given that he would like to have an earlier one at all).

Mancomb Seepgood

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50).
The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all.
Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:

https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)

https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brendan-oneill-brexit-and-irish-republicanism-6687c83a8760

I came across this the other day regarding Brendan O'Neill's (and his Spiked/Revolutionary Communist Party colleagues) past support for dissident Republicans.I really wish that if outlets were giving this malignant clown a platform they'd carry a health warning about this,or the recently uncovered links between Spiked and the Koch brothers.

Strazdas

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I came across this the other day regarding Brendan O'Neill's (and his Spiked/Revolutionary Communist Party colleagues) past support for dissident Republicans.I really wish that if outlets were giving this malignant clown a platform they'd carry a health warning about this,or the recently uncovered links between Spiked and the Koch brothers.

I've no idea how this political extremist is being invited onto the likes of the BBC and Sky News as a commentator. What next.....Tommy Robinson or one of his mates doing the Sky Papers review?

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

I've no idea how this political extremist is being invited onto the likes of the BBC and Sky News as a commentator. What next.....Tommy Robinson or one of his mates doing the Sky Papers review?

Well, Katie Andrews does the newspaper review on Sky from time to time.

I think they have to get air time, ideally with someone who can counter their points but think of what the 17.4M hear when they hear Brendan O'Neil speak. He made a point on Newstalk this morning that the experience in trying to leave the EU is evidence that just how controlling it is and therefore only right that countries who wish to be sovereign will want to leave.

Middle of the road people looking to be convinced could well hear that and lean towards leaving. If he is denied a platform, it would embolden him as he could say "the fake news media want to silence me".

ancapailldorcha

Kate Andrews is hardly the same though. She's a free marketeer which is a plausibly sincere position for an American to hold. Brendan O'Neill on the other hand seems to be looking to earn off the British right by telling them what they want to hear from an Irish perspective, ie that Leo Varadkar needs to know better than to slight his superiors, that the EU oppresses Ireland (Lisbon treaty!), etc...

Hurrache

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50).
The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all.
Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:

https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)

Is it worth a listen, or will I get angry because he gets an easy ride to talk his rubbish?

edit: I think Mysterio subsequently answered that for me.

Strazdas

Tell me how wrote: »

Well, Katie Andrews does the newspaper review on Sky from time to time.

I think they have to get air time, ideally with someone who can counter their points but think of what the 17.4M hear when they hear Brendan O'Neil speak. He made a point on Newstalk this morning that the experience in trying to leave the EU is evidence that just how controlling it is and therefore only right that countries who wish to be sovereign will want to leave.

Middle of the road people looking to be convinced could well hear that and lean towards leaving. If he is denied a platform, it would embolden him as he could say "the fake news media want to silence me".

That's a complete lie though. There is no problem with the UK leaving but May wants to retain access to the Single Market. The UK could have left the EU at any point in the last two years......the arguments with the EU are not over leaving but over the UK demanding trade access post-Brexit.

Thomas_IV

Strazdas wrote: »

That's a complete lie though. There is no problem with the UK leaving but May wants to retain access to the Single Market. The UK could have left the EU at any point in the last two years......the arguments with the EU are not over leaving but over the UK demanding trade access post-Brexit.

That's the whole point but the Brits perspective on that is still their delusion that the EU needs them more than the UK needs the EU which is the main problem of the Brits themselves.

mrbrianj

Thats the whole problem. mainstream media outlets simplify issues into Black or White ? Good or Bad - when most things in life are more complex. Balance is found in the middle, the middle is not found in 2 opposing extremist shouting each other down.

All it does is give the head bangers oxygen.

Tell me how

mrbrianj wrote: »

Thats the whole problem. mainstream media outlets simplify issues into Black or White ? Good or Bad - when most things in life are more complex. Balance is found in the middle, the middle is not found in 2 opposing extremist shouting each other down.

All it does is give the head bangers oxygen.

But it is very hard for any media organisation to present the reality of a nuanced topic without inviting proponents of each side to give their view. Topics are usually discussed in 3-5 minute slots and it is impossible not to refer to key points within these rather than the minutae.

They are all heavily accused of being biased.

Clare Byrne was called out for having Conor Skehan on last night.
Newstalk is said regularly to be ultra liberal, and others simultaneously say that it is no surprise that Peter Casey is going to have a show on there shortly.
Laura Keunssberg is accused of being a Brexiteer, and a remainer regularly.
RTE is said to be a mouthpiece for the government by many.

I don't necessarily think that the media in Ireland adopts a position as such but allows contributors which sway and influence public opinion. Presenters on such media platforms often have an obvious leaning but that is not to say their entire station agrees with them.

Akrasia

The UK House of Commons had a big long debate about John Bercrow's ruling that May will have 3 days to table a new proposal if her vote falls next week

An awful lot of salty Brexiteers bring up a lot of personal attacks criticising him for being biased (including mention of some stickers on his wife's car, and the fact that he was originally supposed to have a 9 year term and therefore is not a legitimate authority at the moment

It's gas. The May strategy of filibustering this through until there's no choice but to accept her deal has been countered and the Tories have nothing left but to whinge and complain about invalid procedure and that the HOC is biased against them.

hill16bhoy

People like O'Neill aren't on programmes to debate. They're there to propagandise and spew out lie after lie after lie.

This draws "reactions" from viewers or listeners.

It's another example of how free market economics doesn't work in media - lowest common denominator propaganda merchants will always draw the biggest reaction, purely because of the absurdity of what they say.

The problem is that propaganda works on significant sections of the population.

Enzokk

Government has lost another vote, the Grieve amendment has passed and if her deal is voted down she will have to present a new plan 3 days later.


https://twitter.com/owen_g/status/1083007609190387715

20silkcut

Thomas_IV wrote: »

That's the whole point but the Brits perspective on that is still their delusion that the EU needs them more than the UK needs the EU which is the main problem of the Brits themselves.

But brexiteers have managed to convince people that they are being kept in the EU against their will.
That the backstop is a ploy to keep Britain in the EU.
They say they don’t need to trade with the EU.
I suppose the disaster capitalists in the Tory party don’t need the EU.

It is incredible , I remember as a teenager listening to news reports from London and the antics of the euro sceptics in John majors government. They sounded like a rabid bunch of delusional crack pots completely at odds with the pragmatic political mood of the time.
Fast forward twenty years and here they are shaping the future of Britain with their views front and centre unchallenged on national media.
No good men are emerging to shout stop either.

Tell me how

hill16bhoy wrote: »

People like O'Neill aren't on programmes to debate. They're there to propagandise and spew out lie after lie after lie.

This draws "reactions" from viewers or listeners.

It's another example of how free market economics doesn't work in media - lowest common denominator propaganda merchants will always draw the biggest reaction, purely because of the absurdity of what they say.

The problem is that propaganda works on significant sections of the population.

The Brexiteers would argue that Alistair Campbell should not be advocating for a Peoples Vote for exactly the same reason.

It is down to the person opposing the likes of O'Neill to call him on his nonsense. Too often we get single contributors from one side at a time whereas I think two contributors actually debating over 8-12 minutes is much better.

ancapailldorcha

Akrasia wrote: »

It's gas. The May strategy of filibustering this through until there's no choice but to accept her deal has been countered and the Tories have nothing left but to whinge and complain about invalid procedure and that the HOC is biased against them.

It isn't gas.

English liberal philosophy is very clear on the importance of checks and balances on executive power. What we have seen over the last few years is a forceful and concerted attempt by Brexiteers and their backers to undermine these checks and balances at any point their use has become necessary. So far we've had the media, Judges, the House of Lords and now the speaker of the House of Commons. If we had an opposition, I'd add that to the list. The Queen has stayed neutral which explains why she hasn't been in the firing line.

These checks are supposed to prevent executive power being abused by despots. For the most part, they work well which seems to be the reason why the Conservative party is trying to consistently undermine them.

lawred2

Stormont (sic DUP) veto on backstop!!

Sure that's the negotiated withdrawal agreement in the bin again right?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/stormont-would-have-veto-over-eu-rules-under-british-proposals-on-brexit-backstop-37696009.html

apologies if already posted

intellectual dosser

Enzokk wrote: »

Government has lost another vote, the Grieve amendment has passed and if her deal is voted down she will have to present a new plan 3 days later.

This ones really a disaster for May, she's clearly been running down the clock until MPs have to accept there is no other option than her deal. This vote and result keeps alive the delusion that another option will be made available three days after the vote.

The reality is that Plan B is an A50 postponement.

Nody

lawred2 wrote: »

Stormont (sic DUP) veto on backstop!!

Sure that's the negotiated withdrawal agreement in the bin again right?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/stormont-would-have-veto-over-eu-rules-under-british-proposals-on-brexit-backstop-37696009.html

apologies if already posted

It's puff puff land ideas which are not in the agreement a.k.a. renegotiation on what was agreed. The key point here is what is failing:

If the backstop does come into effect, the British Government said the Stormont Assembly and Executive would then be given a strong oversight role in its operation.

If the EU proposed changing any laws that impacted the operating of the backstop, the UK would have to consent to such a measure applying to Northern Ireland and the British Government has now committed to seek the agreement of the Assembly before signing off on any such change.