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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    I've put a link to the live coverage on the guardian below for everyone interested in reading about the Corbyn speech of today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/10/brexit-latest-news-corbyn-speech-may-press-conference-reaches-out-to-labour-by-welcoming-workers-rights-amendment-politics-live#comments

    What one can summarise from it is that nothing new is really there, it's just that it has become more clear by his own words what he's really after and that is a GE, the alternative to this which is a BrexitRef2 is still not what he backs up but what he might concede if there is no other choice left for him.

    When reading through his statements in his interview as to find in the above link, he also appears to be much deluded himself and risks the UK exiting the EU without a deal in voting it down on 15th January in the Commons. Just like the rabid hardline Brexiters of the ERG.

    Meanwhile, many companies, small and middle included, have already drawn the consequences from this Brexit Farce and relocated to other countries, even to Switzerland. What is currently going on in the economy and financial sector doesn't seem to bother the MPs in Westminster too much as they're more occupied with their usual bickerings than to read the writings on the wall and the companies dismissing hundreds to thousands employees into unemployment because of an already progressing decline in many sectors of the economy. This is just the beginning, it will certainly get worse after a no-deal Brexit kicks in and if this farce continues further, it'll end with a no-deal.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    As sickening as it is, the maybot holds all the cards:

    Cut out the insults please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    That's not what paragraph 3 of Article 50 says:
    The European Council is not negotiating with the UK. The quoted section of Art 50 in no way refutes what I posted if you look again at what I said.

    If the Commission says PFO to an extension request the Council will never get an opportunity to look at it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Corbyn is truly awful. Yet again, he slinks away from representing the wishes of his party. 75% of Labour voters want a second referendum but Corbyn refuses to even put the option on the table. This is what happens when ideology takes precedence over pragmatism.


  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If I were a journalist, I'd have asked him if has as PM would he put May's Deal back to the House after he fails to renogiate anything better, in order to avoid No Deal.

    It wouldn't get much more humiliating than that.


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,329 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    john9876 wrote: »
    But does she want a hard Brexit?
    She wants to remain PM for as long as possible; everything after that number one priority nothing else matters to her. Now to be crass here since there's no option on the table to deliver anything but hard brexit without losing her PM position (i.e. new GE, second referendum, recalling A50 etc.) I'd say she may not want it but if the option is that she gets to remain PM for another day she'll take it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    If I were a journalist, I'd have asked him if has as PM would he put May's Deal back to the House after he fails to renogiate anything better, in order to avoid No Deal.

    It wouldn't get much more humiliating than that.

    His answer would be that he wants to respect the will of the people but maintain a customs union, workers' rights etc. and so will be renegotiating (a deal that has already been agreed) to get a better deal from the EU. Unicornish stuff as usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    BBC News estimating that May's going to be short 114 votes unless she can flip the DUP or some Labour supporters. It's starting to look like GE if May can't come up with something else - my question would be, is May confident enough to believe she'll survive a GE or will she see the writing on the wall and go to plan B before the vote?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,386 ✭✭✭EKRIUQ


    john9876 wrote: »
    But does she want a hard Brexit?

    Maybe not but she's been told by 2 Brexit secretaries that she appointed that the EU will flounder at the last moment. Most of her parliament have told her that they won't be bullied by the EU.

    I think she expects the EU to solve her problem by backing down.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    EKRIUQ wrote: »
    Maybe not but she's been told by 2 Brexit secretaries that she appointed that the EU will flounder at the last moment. Most of her parliament have told her that they won't be bullied by the EU.

    I think she expects the EU to solve her problem by backing down.

    Does she genuinely believe this though?

    I'm not suggesting you're wrong... but if this is still the genuine belief then these people are incredibly dumb naive.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    Corbyn is truly awful. Yet again, he slinks away from representing the wishes of his party. 75% of Labour voters want a second referendum but Corbyn refuses to even put the option on the table. This is what happens when ideology takes precedence over pragmatism.

    Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.

    Just to remember, the many people who voted him in as leader of the LP are as much ideologists as he is himself. The Momentum movement is the one outside the LP that managed to vote him in by an huge increase of new membership applications in August / September 2015 in order to vote for him. Before that, he was either a nobody or just the 'black sheep' that held a seat since 1983 but always voted against his own party.

    The UK LP has been taken over by a bunch of far-left ideologists and they are also backed up by likewise Trade Union activists and representatives.

    With Corbyn remaining as the leader of the LP and a UK exiting the EU without a deal, the UK LP fate might become as similar crushing for them like the Irish LP has experienced in 2015 as well. In compare with both of them, the UK LP has nobody but to blame herself for that and of course Corbyn for his tactical misconduct in order to get into No 10, which he desires the most but hopefully will never get.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Bambi wrote: »
    If a time traveller from 2018 had popped up during the second referendum and told the voters that The Irish Army would be deploying units in some dismal war torn part of North Africa in a non UN role via PESCO (which was a part of the Lisbon Treaty) the treaty would have been shot down again

    So hardly hoodwinking.


    The deployment to Mali is UN mandated (which is one of the conditions required). Its also a non-combat mission (training of Mali Army).


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,329 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Thomas_IV wrote: »
    Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.
    I think you misjudge him on the bolded part; he does not want to topple her UNTIL the crash out to ensure he gets to ride in as the white night. He wants a hard brexit to ensure he gets to implement his visions of how things should be (which require a hard brexit to be allowed to break budget limits, state aid etc.) but he wants to bear minimal fallout from it. Hence keep talking about how bad it is, how they should do it differently etc. and wait out until UK crashes out before declaring a need for a GE to be won by showing how he would have done things differently but oh well to late for that now.

    That's why he's not called a vote of confidence etc. simply because he does not want to get in power right now and have to deal with the internal power struggle that would come with it. Once they are out however the whole leave/remain fight will mostly go away and due to how things are going he can play domestic politics instead for years without worrying about EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Does she genuinely believe this though?

    I'm not suggesting you're wrong... but if this is still the genuine belief then these people are incredibly dumb naive.

    Theresa Villiers was on C4 news a few nights back, and without a flinch said that there was nothing wrong with WTO trading should it come to it, that most if the world trades on it, that they simply needed to go back to Brussels and ask for further compromise and that the EU would accommodate them.
    And I'm convinced she believes every word of it. As do all her ERG chums.

    I mean if only these Brexiteers could have had some input into brexit negotiations and preparations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Thomas_IV wrote: »
    Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.

    Just to remember, the many people who voted him in as leader of the LP are as much ideologists as he is himself. The Momentum movement is the one outside the LP that managed to vote him in by an huge increase of new membership applications in August / September 2015 in order to vote for him. Before that, he was either a nobody or just the 'black sheep' that held a seat since 1983 but always voted against his own party.

    The UK LP has been taken over by a bunch of far-left ideologists and they are also backed up by likewise Trade Union activists and representatives.

    With Corbyn remaining as the leader of the LP and a UK exiting the EU without a deal, the UK LP fate might become as similar crushing for them like the Irish LP has experienced in 2015 as well. In compare with both of them, the UK LP has nobody but to blame herself for that and of course Corbyn for his tactical misconduct in order to get into No 10, which he desires the most but hopefully will never get.

    Indeed. However, Corbyn has another growing problem as Momentum, who put Corbyn in power as you say, is increasingly pro-Europe and pro a second referendum. As, of course, are a large majority of Labour MPs and voters. Corbyn is increasingly isolated from almost all factions of Labour members and voters. But, like May, he will plough on regardless.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Thomas_IV wrote: »
    What one can summarise from it is that nothing new is really there, it's just that it has become more clear by his own words what he's really after and that is a GE, the alternative to this which is a BrexitRef2 is still not what he backs up but what he might concede if there is no other choice left for him.


    This is not some Corbyn secret you have figured out, it is Labour Party policy since the last conference and very well publicised.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Nody wrote: »
    That's why he's not called a vote of confidence etc. simply because he does not want to get in power right now


    No, that can't be it, since any such vote would fail, leaving him safely in opposition.


    He has every intention of forcing a GE when it is actually possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    No, that can't be it, since any such vote would fail, leaving him safely in opposition.


    He has every intention of forcing a GE when it is actually possible.

    He best hope for another polling miracle then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,062 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Call me Al wrote: »
    Theresa Villiers was on C4 news a few nights back, and without a flinch said that there was nothing wrong with WTO trading should it come to it, that most if the world trades on it, that they simply needed to go back to Brussels and ask for further compromise and that the EU would accommodate them.
    And I'm convinced she believes every word of it. As do all her ERG chums.

    I mean if only these Brexiteers could have had some input into brexit negotiations and preparations.

    You only believe these things if you have nothing really resting on them.

    i.e people of means dont care because whatever happens the outcome has scant impact on their day to day. Effectively shielded by finance and privilege That is why we have devil may care attitude and a cavalier approach to real problems


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    Indeed. However, Corbyn has another growing problem as Momentum, who put Corbyn in power as you say, is increasingly pro-Europe and pro a second referendum. As, of course, are a large majority of Labour MPs and voters. Corbyn is increasingly isolated from almost all factions of Labour members and voters. But, like May, he will plough on regardless.

    IMV, it's not quite that clear with Momentum having a major pro-EU stance. They're a far-left to left-wing non-LP political movement, associated or better affiliated to the LP, but Corbyn has up to now always managed to make them believe that the future he and his supporters dream of is better to be achieved outside the EU and this is why he always has been and still is anti-EU. He was much uncomfortable and in fact more reluctant to canvass for Remain in the BrexitRef 2016, but he had to cos the LP openly stood for Remain.

    The fact that a certain part of the Labour voters voted for Leave in 2016 as they were probably swallowing his delusions, brought him the Basis upon which he was able to justify his pro-Brexit stance, disguised as 'soft Brexit'. In fact the Leave voters of Labour voters have always been a minority, comparable to that Momentum (but able to tip the balance in favour of Corbyn in the leadership election).

    I don't know how close and for how long you have been following this political developments in the UK that took place since 2015, cos things that were started already then are unfolding more stronger by now.

    I agree with you on your estimation that Corbyn has put himself into an isolated position cos this is also due to the fact that his true colours are more shining through and people (or say many LP members) are realising by now that they've voted the wrong person as the leader and that twice.

    Keir Starmer, his shadow Brexit secretary, would be the better LP leader and he's one that I deem to be pragmatic cos he talks sense and is less the ideologist than Corbyn, but currently due to this Brexit Farce and the time until the Exit date getting shorter, there is apparently no big chance to challenge Corbyn in a leadership contest. This might occure sooner when he fails to topple May in the coming weeks (given that her deal is voted down), gets his GE but loses to the Tories once again (polls point out that with Corbyn going for Brexit the LP would lose more votes in a GE since 1983). But a GE is not the best solution to end this deadlock in the Commons, a BrexitRef2 is because that would put the responsibility for Brexit back to the electorate and the chances that the result of a BrexitRef2 would be a majority of Remain is the very thing May and Corbyn both dislike most.

    There is much theatre in the Commons to be exptected the next couple of days up to the date of the meaningful vote on 15 January 2019.

    I have time and again read some comments on Irish websites (this one here included) in which people were complaining about their politicians in the Dáil but frankly, when looking at Westminster Ireland is far more better off with the ones Ireland has.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    This is not some Corbyn secret you have figured out, it is Labour Party policy since the last conference and very well publicised.

    I never meant it to be a secret, but one can see the obvious that the leadership of the LP is following a contrasting or even opposing way in the case of Brexit than what the grassroots Membership and other LP representatives from Cllrs to MPs want.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,045 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?

    Someone asked Corbyn should be asked whether he would put May's deal back if he made no progress. I would also ask how embarrassing it would be when the 27 told him they were not interested in further negotiation (which they would) and not even let him in the room never mind change the deal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,837 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?

    Someone asked Corbyn should be asked whether he would put May's deal back if he made no progress. I would also ask how embarrassing it would be when the 27 told him they were not interested in further negotiation (which they would) and not even let him in the room never mind change the deal.

    It's stunning to watch from the outside and wonder why they are not seeing what we are seeing. The likes of Ian Duncan Smyth saying some weeks ago that the EU really needed to step up to the plate was like something someone in a coma would wake up and say.

    To this point, this whole Brexit thing has dramatically reduced the standing the UK has in the world.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?
    I think it was James O'Brien who said that the minute they tried to write it down would be when the whole thing fell apart. And that's been pretty much borne out by events. The ERG were supposed to put their plan down on paper and then ran away when they couldn't. So the default position for everyone has been to act as hurlers on the ditch and shy away from anything concrete that will inevitably be torn apart.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,379 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Thomas_IV wrote: »
    IMV, it's not quite that clear with Momentum having a major pro-EU stance. They're a far-left to left-wing non-LP political movement, associated or better affiliated to the LP, but Corbyn has up to now always managed to make them believe that the future he and his supporters dream of is better to be achieved outside the EU and this is why he always has been and still is anti-EU. He was much uncomfortable and in fact more reluctant to canvass for Remain in the BrexitRef 2016, but he had to cos the LP openly stood for Remain.

    The fact that a certain part of the Labour voters voted for Leave in 2016 as they were probably swallowing his delusions, brought him the Basis upon which he was able to justify his pro-Brexit stance, disguised as 'soft Brexit'. In fact the Leave voters of Labour voters have always been a minority, comparable to that Momentum (but able to tip the balance in favour of Corbyn in the leadership election).

    I don't know how close and for how long you have been following this political developments in the UK that took place since 2015, cos things that were started already then are unfolding more stronger by now.

    I agree with you on your estimation that Corbyn has put himself into an isolated position cos this is also due to the fact that his true colours are more shining through and people (or say many LP members) are realising by now that they've voted the wrong person as the leader and that twice.

    Keir Starmer, his shadow Brexit secretary, would be the better LP leader and he's one that I deem to be pragmatic cos he talks sense and is less the ideologist than Corbyn, but currently due to this Brexit Farce and the time until the Exit date getting shorter, there is apparently no big chance to challenge Corbyn in a leadership contest. This might occure sooner when he fails to topple May in the coming weeks (given that her deal is voted down), gets his GE but loses to the Tories once again (polls point out that with Corbyn going for Brexit the LP would lose more votes in a GE since 1983). But a GE is not the best solution to end this deadlock in the Commons, a BrexitRef2 is because that would put the responsibility for Brexit back to the electorate and the chances that the result of a BrexitRef2 would be a majority of Remain is the very thing May and Corbyn both dislike most.

    There is much theatre in the Commons to be exptected the next couple of days up to the date of the meaningful vote on 15 January 2019.

    I have time and again read some comments on Irish websites (this one here included) in which people were complaining about their politicians in the Dáil but frankly, when looking at Westminster Ireland is far more better off with the ones Ireland has.

    They do in reality. A recent poll of Momentum members showed very strong support for a second referendum - especially if there isn't a GE. Only 17% are against a second referendum in all circumstances.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,910 ✭✭✭Russman


    It's stunning to watch from the outside and wonder why they are not seeing what we are seeing. The likes of Ian Duncan Smyth saying some weeks ago that the EU really needed to step up to the plate

    That's the bit that I don't quite get. I mean, part of me is thinking they can't possibly be that naïve / deluded / misguided / arrogant, call it what you will, and that they must know something we don't. Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    They do in reality. A recent poll of Momentum members showed very strong support for a second referendum - especially if there isn't a GE.. Only 17% are against a second referendum in all circumstances.

    Thanks for that. But as one had to learn to know Corbyn, this doesn't bother him unless he's forced to follow up. That means that he tables an no-confidence motion against the UK govt in the Commons, after May's deal is voted down and loses that motion. Both are likely to happen. Both would be (normally) be politically finished as leaders, but in this unusual Brexit situation, they might probably stay on unless others challenge them and topple them.

    The UK has the political means to stop Brexit but the politicians doesn't have the will to do it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭Thomas_IV


    Russman wrote: »
    That's the bit that I don't quite get. I mean, part of me is thinking they can't possibly be that naïve / deluded / misguided / arrogant, call it what you will, and that they must know something we don't. Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?

    I'm afraid it can and we will see this happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,075 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Russman wrote: »
    ..Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?


    The hard core Brexiteers won't be shocked at all by that.
    But the gullible people who believe them will be.
    And then the hard core Brexiteers will tell them that it's all the EU's fault and the shock will be forgotten.
    And they'll all sing along like before.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxbIU0X-lCI&t=1m10s


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,378 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    josip wrote: »
    The hard core Brexiteers won't be shocked at all by that.
    But the gullible people who believe them will be.
    And then the hard core Brexiteers will tell them that it's all the EU's fault and the shock will be forgotten.
    And they'll all sing along like before.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxbIU0X-lCI&t=1m10s

    Sing the Singaporean national anthem while waving a US flag, more like.


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