Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Bit cynical

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't think a NO DEAL is on the cards, so the issue is.... what is on the cards?

One thing I think hasn't been discussed here much (and therefore quite likely to happen) is that the UK crashes out of the EU but retains membership of the EEA. This would be a failure for Ireland but quite good from the point of view of EU manufacturers seeking to sell into the UK.

Spanish Eyes

Water John wrote: »

Hopefully the HOC specifically rules out a Crash Out Brexit.

How will that happen? Another vote on the downvoted vote for the WA?

Water John

TM's Plan B she must submit to HOC within 3 days. Any member can table an amendment. Downing St are pushing hard for only one amendment to be allowed, but don't think Bercow will agree.
One of these amendments will be to rule out a No Deal Brexit. The amendments are voted on first and if this one passes it overrules TM's Plan B.

An Ciarraioch

Bit cynical wrote: »

One thing I think hasn't been discussed here much (and therefore quite likely to happen) is that the UK crashes out of the EU but retains membership of the EEA. This would be a failure for Ireland but quite good from the point of view of EU manufacturers seeking to sell into the UK.

No East-West tariffs, and significantly reduces problems in relation to the Border, so why would we complain?

An Ciarraioch

Water John wrote: »

TM's Plan B she must submit to HOC within 3 days. Any member can table an amendment. Downing St are pushing hard for only one amendment to be allowed, but don't think Bercow will agree.
One of these amendments will be to rule out a No Deal Brexit. The amendments are voted on first and if this one passes it overrules TM's Plan B.

And No Deal can only be avoided if:

A. The Commons votes for an alternative (Norway, FTA, Canada).
B. It votes to extend/revoke Article 50.

Spanish Eyes

Bet the UK never thought they would have to face REAL time negotiations with the EU.

Having said that, there will have to be a compromise somewhere as opposed to a No Deal.

But no one knows what that might be. Does anyone?

Spanish Eyes

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And No Deal can only be avoided if:

A. The Commons votes for an alternative (Norway, FTA, Canada).
B. It votes to extend/revoke Article 50.

I don't think the UK can unilaterally vote to extend A50 unless there is a General Election or a people's vote. AFAIK.

Water John

Basically the HOC instructs the Executive to prevent a Crash out Brexit. Technically the Executive could ignore it but would not, as Parliament is Sovereign.
I'm sure Dominic Grieve as former Attorney General will get the correct wording to the amendment.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't think the UK can unilaterally vote to extend A50 unless there is a General Election or a people's vote. AFAIK.

It cannot unilaterally extend A50 and the EU could even refuse it if there was a general election or referendum planned.

All it can do is politely ask the EU to extend A50 and then hope for the best.

Water John

It can however unilaterally withdraw Art 50 notice, very unlikely now, but may happen if there is a 2nd Ref.

Nody

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't think the UK can unilaterally vote to extend A50 unless there is a General Election or a people's vote. AFAIK.

They can't vote to unilaterally extend it period; they can ask for an extension which all EU27 must agree to and the fact that they must ask is likely a big issue for UK's internal pride and esp. brexiteers to swallow ("Why do WE have to ask for it? We are the UK!").

Spanish Eyes

Water John wrote: »

It can however unilaterally withdraw Art 50 notice, very unlikely now, but may happen if there is a 2nd Ref.

Yes the UK can decide to revoke unilaterally due to the recent ruling, but they cannot decide to EXTEND indefinitely. That issue is not theirs to make that is a decision of the EU. Unless they call a GE or allow a People's Referendum.

I cannot help but think there is a big shedload of arrogance going on here on the part of the UK. Sorry now.

Bit cynical

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No East-West tariffs, and significantly reduces problems in relation to the Border, so why would we complain?

It does reduce them, but the UK would be leaving the customs union so the EU would require some sort of border to be in place. Also there would be no forward guarantee that the UK would stay in the EEA. Since they would be outside the customs union they would be free to negotiate and conclude trade deals, including a trade deal with the EU itself. Having done so they could consider leaving the EEA.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

It cannot unilaterally extend A50 and the EU could even refuse it if there was a general election or referendum planned.

All it can do is politely ask the EU to extend A50 and then hope for the best.

They would have Ireland's backing if they decided to ask for an extension.

Nody

Bit cynical wrote: »

They would have Ireland's backing if they decided to ask for an extension.

But would the likes of Poland, Romania or Hungary after the attacks they received from, during and after the Brexit campaign? Can't see them being very happy with the general sentiment in the UK about "johnny foreigner" etc. and they are likely to be net beneficiaries in terms of new factories (where as the likes of Belgium, Ireland etc. have issues that will impact them faster).

Spanish Eyes

Bit cynical wrote: »

They would have Ireland's backing if they decided to ask for an extension.

The rest of the 27 might not agree though. And even if IRELAND backed it, for what end? There is no plan, they do not like us anymore, they hate the backstop, they do not want to be in the EU.

I just don't get all this helping to sort their own disasters out TBH.

But I suppose we may have to be a bit pragmatic to save ourselves in the long run.

That is what they may be relying upon.

Bit cynical

Nody wrote: »

But would the likes of Poland, Romania or Hungary after the attacks they received from, during and after the Brexit campaign? Can't see them being very happy with the general sentiment in the UK about "johnny foreigner" etc. and they are likely to be net beneficiaries in terms of new factories (where as the likes of Belgium, Ireland etc. have issues that will impact them faster).

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The rest of the 27 might not agree though. And even if IRELAND backed it, for what end? There is no plan, they do not like us anymore, they hate the backstop, they do not want to be in the EU.

We would be active in our diplomacy in those countries. I could see another whirlwind tour by Varadkar or Coveney.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

They would have Ireland's backing if they decided to ask for an extension.

Almost certainly but they could run into opposition too : apparently Macron is seriously fed up with the Brexiteers at this point and prepared to burn his bridges with them if they don't get their act together pronto.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

Almost certainly but they could run into opposition too : apparently Macron is seriously fed up with the Brexiteers at this point and prepared to burn his bridges with them if they don't get their act together pronto.

He has to talk tough but I doubt if he personally has strong feelings one way or the other. Again, we would have to exercise our diplomatic skills here.

Spanish Eyes

I honestly don't think the rest of the EU give a fk about Brexit.

It is a UK issue. Their decision, their problem.

Apart from Barnier and the negotiators, the rest of the EU are impervious to the UK. Which should be a lesson really.

WE here in Ireland have a different focus. To be sure. But hopefully the EU will back us up.

Seth Brundle

Brexit affects all of the EU. It is testing the strength of the union which, so far, has been resolute.

Bit cynical

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I honestly don't think the rest of the EU give a fk about Brexit.

It is a UK issue. Their decision, their problem.

Apart from Barnier and the negotiators, the rest of the EU are impervious to the UK. Which should be a lesson really.

WE here in Ireland have a different focus. To be sure. But hopefully the EU will back us up.

I think that if the UK did seek an extension, we would have to at least try to get backing for it from the other member states. I agree that the rest of the EU don't care about Brexit. But this does not mean that they oppose an extension, it means that they don't have a strong opinion about it one way or another. If Ireland backs an extension and can influence the Brussels establishment behind the scenes to back it (obviously they won't publicly back it, then the other member states will likely go along with it since it is no skin off their nose one way or the other. If nothing else, it postpones disruption in some other EU countries allowing greater time for preparations.

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

Almost certainly but they could run into opposition too : apparently Macron is seriously fed up with the Brexiteers at this point and prepared to burn his bridges with them if they don't get their act together pronto.

It appears Macron has his own problems to worry about at home and brexit is probably the last thing on his mind.

Spanish Eyes

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think that if the UK did seek an extension, we would have to at least try to get backing for it from the other member states. I agree that the rest of the EU don't care about Brexit. But this does not mean that they oppose an extension, it means that they don't have a strong opinion about it one way or another. If Ireland backs an extension and can influence the Brussels establishment behind the scenes to back it (obviously they won't publicly back it, then the other member states will likely go along with it since it is no skin off their nose one way or the other. If nothing else, it postpones disruption in some other EU countries allowing greater time for preparations.

Fair enough. But how long will an extension last? Will it be open ended or tied to time?

That is the question. The Uk should not be trusted IMV, and that is my view WRT to any State that is as incompetent as they appear to be in similar circumstances.

But they may be playing the long game.

View

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I honestly don't think the rest of the EU give a fk about Brexit.

It is a UK issue. Their decision, their problem.

Apart from Barnier and the negotiators, the rest of the EU are impervious to the UK. Which should be a lesson really.

WE here in Ireland have a different focus. To be sure. But hopefully the EU will back us up.

And our focus is wrong. Our focus should be on strengthening our position within the EU, not focusing on a situation that has existed since we were a Dominion within the British Empire.

If a hard border is unthinkable for us, then the Brexiters can be obtuse over it and refuse to concede on it. Brexiters have always counted on the border issue being shelved for a future date (as has happened in the agreement). Had we said on day one, “Right, if you are leaving then we will join Schengen the day after you leave”, Brexiters would have been shown to have miscalculated and would have faced a grilling ever since. Instead we have facilitated their film-flam and allowed them to give the impression that the status quo will continue when it suits Brexit Britain and be abandoned when it doesn’t.

Spanish Eyes

View wrote: »

And our focus is wrong. Our focus should be on strengthening our position within the EU, not focusing on a situation that has existed since we were a Dominion within the British Empire.

If a hard border is unthinkable for us, then the Brexiters can be obtuse over it and refuse to concede on it. Brexiters have always counted on the border issue being shelved for a future date (as has happened in the agreement). Had we said on day one, “Right, if you are leaving then we will join Schengen the day after you leave”, Brexiters would have been shown to have miscalculated and would have faced a grilling ever since. Instead we have facilitated their film-flam and allowed them to give the impression that the status quo will continue when it suits Brexit Britain and be abandoned when it doesn’t.

Schengen would not apply to those in NI though would it? Instant grief.

I understand your points, but honestly this debacle is beyond all of us. All we can do is discuss it really. We don't have any power to change anything. We elected those who hopefully will protect our interests and the GFA via the International Agreement that is the GFA.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

It cannot unilaterally extend A50 and the EU could even refuse it if there was a general election or referendum planned.

All it can do is politely ask the EU to extend A50 and then hope for the best.

As others have posted there's EU MEP elections and a good few National elections coming in the next few months. And there's negotiations with Switzerland ( trucks from there take 30 minutes to screen when they arrive in the UK ) and other places on hold due to Brexit.

So no politician in the rest of the EU will contemplate an extension unless the UK brings some thing big to the table. A UK general election wouldn't count as the EU would regard it as an internal UK affair , just like they don''t get involved in the Spain - Catalonia thing. And besides if Corbyn won it would still be Brexit but with the unicorns farting rainbows of a different hue.


Also the UK has new tax rules for charging VAT on the 1th of April for (sub)contractors (am I billing the end customer or another contractor ?) and lots of other stuff because the end of their financial year is on April 5th, a week after March 29th.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/making-tax-digital/overview-of-making-tax-digital

VAT-registered businesses with a taxable turnover above the VAT threshold are required to use the Making Tax Digital service to keep records digitally and use software to submit their VAT returns from 1 April 2019.

Leroy42

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As others have posted there's EU MEP elections and a good few National elections coming in the next few months.

Exactly this. The UK seem to still believe that everything and everybody is simply waiting for them. Whilst Brexit is of course massive to Ireland, to the likes of Malta, Portugal etc etc, it really is not important in the overall scheme of things.

PM's of other countries (Macron for example) have far bigger problems that Brexit to worry about and the EU itself has some some pretty big problems (Trump, Italy etc).

I really don't see any reason why they would bother extending A50 as this would set a dangerous precedent for other countries. If they extend it now, why not for another time, and another. And what about payments, and elections and budgets and decisions (further investment in Galileo for example). And what about awarded contracts, will the UK be allowed win them during an extension?

It is a mess, complicated and costly and I see no advantage to it. The UK have shown throughout this process that only impending deadlines gives them any sort or reason to make a decision. Even the latest example, TM simply cancelling the vote before Xmas, all because she could.

cml387

I think the person under pressure next week will not be May, but Jeremy Corbyn.
Presuming defeat for the PM next week, it would be extraordinary if Labour did not call for a vote of confidence.

If TM wins, then Corbyn really has no place to go other than to call for another referendum, given that that is his mandate from the last Labour conference.

So essentially it's also decision time for JC as well.

Water John

The first focus is on TM. If she loses badly, she's gone. alternatively she has to come back to the House with a Plan in 3 days. Lb won't trigger a vote of confidence within that time frame IWT. She is the PM and hasn't even disclosed to anyone what she is thinking for Plan B.