Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Thomas_IV

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I said this in the last thread.

Corbyn is a anti Euro left wing politician at heart thus he has been totally ambiguous throughout the whole Brexit era.

Had he be been a stronger leader in the early days then maybe May would not have risked the snap election last year and thus we would not have the DUP calling the shots now.

But way back when Corbyn was elected there was talk of Tories joining the Labour party for £10 just to vote for him and thus sow the seeds of cahos within Labour

If that is true look at where it got the Tories.

Had there been a stronger Labour parliamentary opposition post Brexit the Tories would still have their 2015 election majority, and the WA would have passed in December 2017 because in reality no one outside the DUP give a hoot about the constutional implications of the backdrop.

That is all quite right, just that Tories did their fake applications for Labour Membership in order to vote and the fee was £3 as from the outset it was just to pay the fee and no need for membership application but as the Party got notice of abusive voters (pay the fee and spoil the vote) the member ship application was added. If I recall it correctly, the LP was swamped by new member ship application on a scale of 400K around the time of Corbyn's leadership contest and election. It took them huge efforts and time to sort it out. Fact is that many Momentum and far-left people joined the LP in order to vote Corbyn in as leader.

Many of them still refuse to realise that Corbyn is in fact a Brexiter himself. There is also an anti-Corbyn faction within the LP but to no avail.

c.p.w.g.w

wiggle16 wrote: »

The majority of the people who voted Remain (and the overwhelming overall majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland) are not eligible to vote in UK referenda? Hmmm.
Or do you just mean opinion polls? Because as I understand it, any reputable poll of that nature will establish relevance, ie, "are you eligible to vote/over 18" etc.

The vote was only carried in England. Not a single Scottish constituency voted to Leave. Only a few constituencies in NI votes to leave and their majority was very slim. The result was also extremely slim in Wales. The result in London was a clear remain, with over 2.2 million votes in against leaving. Calling it a vote of the people in the UK is a joke.

A huge element of the Leave vote was a protest vote. A lot of people did not understand the magnitude of what they were voting in favour of and believed the out and out lies spun by Boris et al (such as the £350000000 a week to spend on the NHS plastered on the side of a [German made] bus).

The number of google searches the next morning along the lines of "what is the eu" speaks volumes about the true nature of that referendum. The result in EU funded Cornwall, where they didn't realise they would lose their EU funding if they left the EU, says it all: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/26/cornwall-fears-loss-of-funding-after-backing-brexit

The Welsh voting to leave despite their massive farming industry which is also dependant on eu money. The lack of knowledge throughout the UK about the EU was/is depressing as the folks with this lack of knowledge are costing their country and fortune.

Although I find it humorous when farmers who campaigned for leave realised their grant money would exit too. Turkeys voting for xmas comes to mind

FrancieBrady

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh you poor deluded fool.


Unless the UK calls off Brexit there'll be years of trade deals with the EU and the border/backstop/customs and immigration and all the other stuff.

There seems to be a delusion out there that this is the only bump along the road to happy ever after/little England -happy at last.

It isn't, there is still the prospect of watching the UK eat itself up whether they leave or stay.

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted and sanctions issued.

DOCARCH

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There seems to be a delusion out there that this is the only bump along the road to happy ever after/little England -happy at last.

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

VinLieger

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

Dont forget the delusion that whenever its then shown the EU have the upper hand and are the stronger party in the negotiations that they are somehow cheating or being unfair....

FrancieBrady

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

Sammy Wilson yesterday being their primary spokesman.

Zubeneschamali

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Had he be been a stronger leader in the early days then maybe May would not have risked the snap election last year and thus we would not have the DUP calling the shots now.

You are saying that if Corbyn were a stronger leader, the Labour Party would be in a worse position in Westminster and the Tories a better position.



That is the exact opposite of what a stronger Labour leader means.

seamus

DOCARCH wrote: »

There is also delusion among Brexiteers that the UK and the EU are equal partners in negotiation, or even that the UK (in some mad/deluded way) have the upper hand!

I think most clearly illustrated yesterday by the commentary from a number of MPs that, "Parliament has had their say, now the EU needs to come up with something else".

They still don't get that the EU is not subservient to the UK parliament and that the UK is not calling the shots here.

They clearly believe that the EU "will not allow" a no-deal Brexit to happen. This is a guy in a mini playing chicken with a train.

Risteard81

SNIP. Cut out the one-liners please.

Tacitus Kilgore

Risteard81 wrote: »

Deleted post.

So-called? Good stuff. Pretty sure it's just called the EU.


Enemy of Ireland? Would you care to elaborate on this point?

Enemy of the world? Again, could you elaborate for me please.

Fr Tod Umptious

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You are saying that if Corbyn were a stronger leader, the Labour Party would be in a worse position in Westminster and the Tories a better position.



That is the exact opposite of what a stronger Labour leader means.

May would never have risked the 2018 election if she thought she was going to lose it.

Labour were in disarray, thus the opportunity for a greater Tory majority.

Labour are a mess right now and Corbyn is to blame for that mess.

FrancieBrady

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

murphaph

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

May would never have risked the 2018 election if she thought she was going to lose it.

Labour were in disarray, thus the opportunity for a greater Tory majority.

Labour are a mess right now and Corbyn is to blame for that mess.

I agree he's useless but he's not the only reason Labour have a big problem....many of their heartlands voted for something that will make their deprived areas even worse and Labour don't know how to get that message across to them without alienating voters.

Almost the entire political system in the UK is broken at present. The only remotely functioning part seems to be Holyrood.

Thomas_IV

seamus wrote: »

I think most clearly illustrated yesterday by the commentary from a number of MPs that, "Parliament has had their say, now the EU needs to come up with something else".

They still don't get that the EU is not subservient to the UK parliament and that the UK is not calling the shots here.

They clearly believe that the EU "will not allow" a no-deal Brexit to happen. This is a guy in a mini playing chicken with a train.

I think that not less of the diehard no-deal Brexiteers know quite well that the EU is almost ready to go for a no-deal Brexit and the worst thing in this is that the former really want that to happen. Either they calculate with the consequences and don't give a damn or they are deliberately want to push the UK off the cliff. I think that it is both cos nobody really can be that stupid to think that after rejecting this deal there will be a better deal despite the EU telling the Brits for many times that is this or nothing.

No doubt that the turmoil this no-deal Brexit will bring unto the EU 27 will have some negative effects, but the negative effects it'll have for the UK and its people I would estimate to be far worse. The Brits will have to pay dearly for this folly one way or another.

An extension of the exit date into July 2019 is meaningless unless there is a BrexitRef2 cos a snap GE won't solve this Brexit problem and it certainly won't bring Corbyn into No 10 due to his refusal to back up a peoples vote which will alienate Labour voters and party members who already signalled him more than once that they want to have a BrexitRef2.

Wanderer78

Fr Tod Umptious wrote:

Labour are a mess right now and Corbyn is to blame for that mess.

Not necessarily true, labours disarray has been a long time in the making, particularly since the Blair era, there's nothing like abandoning your Base to unsteady the ship

mrbrianj

Yes, some of the soundings yesterday were baffling.

"there is a majority in the HoC for leaving with a deal" - not on that result

"Parliament wont leave without a deal"- but what deal and who is going to agree to it?

"its time for the German car manufacturers to step and tell Angela Merkel to sort this out" - pure comic gold!

Flipped around several TV channels for the different views - when you put the different sides ideas together its clear they really are in a mess, and there is no where for reason or direction to come from.

Thomas_IV

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

I'd rather reckon with the UK not requesting an extension but just go full no-deal Brexit by 29th March 2019.

kuro68k

I feel quite ashamed of my government.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

Well Macron, for one. He's very down on any notion of extending A50.

But he might not be the only one. You describe opposition to extension as "left field" but, actually, it entirely depends on what an extension is for. If the UK looks for an extension so that they can continue to faff about, being in denial of the issues, refusing to engage and generally failing to make difficult choices, opposition to an extension will be a pretty mainstream position in the EU. The only realistic chance of an extension is:

- if it's an extension to do something definite; and

- if that something is going to lead to a choice being made; and

- if that choice is going to be something other than a no-deal crash-out.

So, for example, an extension to accommodate a referendum offering a choice between May's deal and Remain would very likely be granted. An extension to attempt to renegotiate the deal on the basis of a significant change by the UK in its red lines would possibly be granted - it depends on the change in the UK red lines. An extension to allow the UK to have a bit of think about things in general would almost certainly not be granted. An extension to allow the UK to make better preparations for a no-deal Brexit would definitely not be granted.

Enzokk

Donald Trump wrote: »

Listened to an interview with JRM about importing beef grown with hormones. Which are banned under EU standards but used in Australia. Said he was fine with it and that people could choose for themselves. Complained about EU rules and standards increasing prices for people

That is very much a US way of thinking. Give people 15 choices from unhealthy to healthy and let the people decide what they want. If they want to eat food that makes them obese it is their choice. This type of thinking misses a million other factors like the cost of items and what people can afford to buy, but it seems to placate those who advocate for this system.

Peregrinus wrote: »

This is complete nonsense. I don't know what website you're getting this tripe from, prinzeugen, but you had better stop reading it, because it is lying to you, and you are being made a fool of. I'm guessing you won't like that.

Good post, I have cut it down to just this point. Seems that the poster has just regurgitated the same story that was printed in The Sun and The Daily Mail as well. That would explain a lot of his views and how they are so off base if that is where he is getting his facts from.

I am not opening any links from The Sun but if you google "kids costumes flammable eu" then on the first page is two articles from the The Sun, one from 2017 and one last year, and one from The Daily Mail as well.

Google Search, kids costumes flammable eu

Peregrinus wrote: »

I'm not sure how much of a revelation this is, though. The WA has been cruising to a massive defeat in this vote for months, now. If May were willing to countenance a more palatable alternative, it was very much in her interests to do that before being publicly humiliated, not afterwards. So, if she didn't do it before the vote, there was never much reason for optimism that she would do it after the vote.

What we know about May is that, if she were a superhero, her superpower would be clinging to things with the tenacity of a fossilised limpet. There's general agreeement that this WA is pretty much the only one possible give, (a) the EU's strategic advantage in negotiations, (b) the EU's priorities, and (c) May's red lines. Only one of these is within May's control but, happily for her, the EU has long made it clear that if the red lines shift, all sorts of things become possible in the WA that are currently impossible. Unhappily for May shifting the red lines requires her to let go of the position she has adopted, and that's the precise opposite of what she is good at doing.

So it seems to me the options are:

1. May shifts her red lines, which is difficult and scary for her personally, and also not without political risk (though, N.B., her own party can't challenge her leadership before next December).

2. May resigns, and allows in another leader who will shift the red lines. This also involves May letting go, in this case of her office rathe than her political position, but that's equally difficult for her. Shifted red lines allows the WA to be negotiated but, NB, only to make it softer, not harder.

3. No-deal Brexit.

4. No Brexit.

As I've said before, options like "general election" or "second referendum" are just different mechanisms for choosing between the same basic options. They don't open up new possibilities that aren't in this list.

I think it is becoming clear that the only way she was going to get a deal through parliament, especially after her disastrous GE in 2017, was to work with the other parties to get a cross party consensus and deal that can get through parliament. This would have meant cutting off the right of her party and the extreme left of the Labour party but at least she would have done what she set out by enacting Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1085453695205212160

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't understand why people are a) mad at Corbyn and b) wondering what he is going to do.


He is implementing Labour policy as set out at Conference in September.


He will table a motion of No Confidence, and when he loses, call for a new referendum.

It does seem that the strategy, at least last night, for Labour was to call numerous no-confidence votes in the government. They can call as many as they like but that seems clearly like Corbyn is subverting the voice of those he said he would craft Labour policy. He is almost as bad as May in that he will say and do what he wants. UK politics are devoid of strong leaders right at the point where we need them to be strong.

Jeremy Corbyn offers little hope for people's vote campaigners

Jeremy Corbyn has offered no encouragement to supporters of a second EU referendum after he called for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government and an immediate general election.

The Labour leader did not refer to a second referendum in his two Brexit speeches on Tuesday evening, and risked antagonising the party’s pro-remain wing, some of whom want him to back another poll by the end of the week.

In his first, longer speech at the end of the full Brexit debate, Corbyn said: “Labour believes that a general election would be the best outcome for the country if this deal is rejected tonight.”

James O'Brien has said that Brexit has revealed that the emperor has no clothes when it comes to the likes of Farage, Johnson and JRM in that what they have promised the people is so obviously not true. For Labour voters that is also becoming true of Corbyn.

murphaph

kuro68k wrote: »

I feel quite ashamed of my government.

Bad system -> bad government. The UK electorate was offered a better system (AV) in a referendum and rejected it on a low turnout. That decision is really coming back to bite them in the rear end now. AV would have introduced coalition government as the norm to the UK (as it is in most of Europe, where it conditions politicians to build consensus) and this referendum would never have been possible as it was only an internal Tory spat that needed solving.

seamus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the UK request an extension, I know we won't object. Who is most likely to emerge from left field to object in the EU, if anyone?

I don't think it's "left field" so much as a consideration of overall impact. An extension under any circumstances is just an extension of uncertainty. It's not good for markets anywhere.

It suits us because the more time we have to prepare, the better. And the more opportunity we have to get the UK to come to its senses, the better.

It also follows that it suits France, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium & Germany a lot too to have more time to prepare.

Outside of that though, countries have less and less involvement with the UK, and they will want more robust debate on it than a simple "more time to prepare" mantra. They don't have the tinted glasses on, for them it's a matter of weighing up the cost of uncertainty versus the value of further preparation.

My sense is that despite the tough timeline, the EU as a whole is very mature in its preparation for this outcome, and delaying further sees a diminishing return.

We also have EU elections on 23rd May. If an extension was allowed past that date, the UK would be obliged to take part, and the toxin in the UK could spread to the EU parliament. Or at the very least the poll in the UK would be so farcical that it could undermine the democratic process.

I think in the event that an extension is permitted, it will be for a short period of time; up to the end of April maybe. Just enough time for a general election to happen and for the UK to pick a path and go with it.

ednwireland

the channel 4 political correspondent called it right this morning on RTE.

the tory brexiteers think they can stop paying into europe, keep all the trade with the eu and go off an negaotiate different deals if they want, and the EU cant have that as what would be the point of the EU everyone would do that if the UK is allowed to do that.

this should, from the start been a cross party committee agreeing some guidelines before triggering article 50.

Enzokk

murphaph wrote: »

I agree he's useless but he's not the only reason Labour have a big problem....many of their heartlands voted for something that will make their deprived areas even worse and Labour don't know how to get that message across to them without alienating voters.

Almost the entire political system in the UK is broken at present. The only remotely functioning part seems to be Holyrood.

The question is whether those Labour areas that voted to Leave would abandon Labour and vote Conservative. It is up to Labour MPs in those areas to shine the light on why those people that voted leave are struggling. It is not the EU and if their MP votes against the deal and votes to withdraw article 50 then they have to show them why they did it and get the message across that Labour will ensure that immigration will have the rules enforced that the EU has in place and also that they will ensure that there is investment in the areas where people are concerned right now.

FreudianSlippers

prinzeugen wrote: »

There is so much wrong with that comparison. The USA is more democratic than the EU.

Absolute nonsense that you're going to need to explain.

prinzeugen wrote: »

The point I am making is that the other than voting for a MEP, the population has zero say in who does what. The EU parliament is like a communist congress. They dish out the jobs to the boys.

So, the same as the US. Gotcha.

prinzeugen wrote: »

But the high up EU jobs are so diluted to the point its undemocratic. You can vote for a president in the US. You cant in the EU.

The President of the EU is a completely different position to the President of the USA. Looks like you need a basic government/politics book.

Christy42

ednwireland wrote: »

the channel 4 political correspondent called it right this morning on RTE.

the tory brexiteers think they can stop paying into europe, keep all the trade with the eu and go off an negaotiate different deals if they want, and the EU cant have that as what would be the point of the EU everyone would do that if the UK is allowed to do that.

this should, from the start been a cross party committee agreeing some guidelines before triggering article 50.

Maybe an info session on what the EU is should have been done a few years ago for all MPs?

At this point I would not mind them passing a pie in the sky deal. They won't get it but it would at least show that there is something they could agree on.

Now it looks like they told May they hate everything she has done in this and will come in later today and tell her they still think she is the right person for the job. Madness!

FreudianSlippers

prinzeugen wrote: »

Trump started a trade war with China. The EU wants the same with the UK.

1) Trump is losing his trade war with China. Bigly;
2) The EU does not want a trade war with the UK, hence the deal on the table and the desire for Brexit not to happen.

Not valid as the EU is not a government but likes to think it is.

I'm not sure you know what "government" means, but let's put it this way: European Parliament literally has "parliament" in the name and has legislative authority.

The EU want Ireland in Schengen. We will have a wall if that happens. (UK will get the blame)

Source required, but the EU does not care if Ireland is in Schengen.

prawnsambo

seamus wrote: »

We also have EU elections on 23rd May. If an extension was allowed past that date, the UK would be obliged to take part, and the toxin in the UK could spread to the EU parliament. Or at the very least the poll in the UK would be so farcical that it could undermine the democratic process.

I think in the event that an extension is permitted, it will be for a short period of time; up to the end of April maybe. Just enough time for a general election to happen and for the UK to pick a path and go with it.

This. An extension past the European elections has always seemed a non-runner to me. Apart from the very valid points you make, there'd be the ludicrous situation of UK MEPs sitting in parliament with their country outside the EU. I assume there's some kind of mechanism to remove them, but even the thought of that possibility gives me shudders.

seamus

Christy42 wrote: »

Maybe an info session on what the EU is should have been done a few years ago for all MPs?

They wouldn't listen. It would be accused of being "propaganda" and MPs "outraged" that it was allowed to happen.

UK MPs would start an argument in a phone booth and it has been that way since the start. As murphaph astutely points out above, Westminster doesn't know how to do compromise. One party drags the country along by the nose while the other parties scream and shout at them. The notion of cross-party unity is foreign to it.