Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Hopefully if there is a second referendum the English middle classes and educated people will get off their backsides. Fair play to the Brexiters - many of whom probably haven't worked a day in their lives since the Tories introduced policies to increase immigration/labour competition and incentivise foreign production - but they got out and voted.


It's just a pity they are so ill-informed that they have blamed the EU for economic policies created by indigenous British parties, the most rightwing of which in the form of Thatcherism were ironically imported by the EU to the rest of the EU and thus undermined 'French exceptionalism' and much else/moved the EU economically to the right.


But, yes, while many people focus on the educated English like Johnson who intentionally and opportunistically scapegoat the EU for all British failings, the better sort of English people who have had the benefit of education and cultural enlightenment and still didn't vote have much to answer for here.

Chips Lovell

I didn't watch the debate last night because the outcome was a foregone conclusion.

What's been so frustratingly tedious about the entire process is just how predictable it is and yet, despite that, so much time is wasted in dissimulating about and temporarily postponing inevitable outcomes.

It's been obvious for over a year now that that this deal was the only kind of deal on offer, indeed the only kind of deal that could be offered. And yet the negotiations were dragged right out to the maximum length in order to maintain the fiction a little longer that some better alternative may be possible.

And it's been obvious for almost just as long that Parliament wouldn't vote through such a deal. Indeed, May almost certainly knew all along that it wouldn't, but still had to negotiate regardless, because there were no politically acceptable alternatives. Like Lear, she was bound upon a wheel of fire.

What follows is more predictability. Today will be taken up with a no-confidence motion we know the government will win. Then there'll be two more days for May to come up with a Plan B which, unless the red lines change (and it's unlikely they will in that time period) will be little more than window dressing of Plan A, with predictable results. It'll be next week before reality is confronted, unless they find another way of kicking the can down the road.

The reality at present is deal, hard Brexit, or no Brexit. If the British government changes its red lines, staying in the single market and customs union is a possibility, but they may as well stay in in that case.

Imreoir2

Penn wrote: »

Unless Parliament can actually vote on something though, that is what will happen, and it's hard to see them voting on anything (even asking to extend Article 50, or that being accepted by the EU). Many MPs are fine with leaving the EU on 29th March, and unless consensus can be found between everyone else on what the alternative to that should be, that's what will happen.

Very few MP's are fine with leaving with no deal. They can and will vote to apply for an A50 extension or to withdraw A50 if the only other alternative is no-deal.

RMAOK

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Very few MP's are fine with leaving with no deal. They can and will vote to apply for an A50 extension or to withdraw A50 if the only other alternative is no-deal.

Am I right in saying that the extension of the article 50 requires the approval of the other 27 EU members?

I know they can revoke their application without permission from the other 27

ancapailldorcha

RMAOK wrote: »

Am I right in saying that the extension of the article 50 requires the approval of the other 27 EU members?

I know they can revoke their application without permission from the other 27

It does, yes.

The UK’s readmission would require the consent of 27 countries, some led by populist anti-EU governments and coalitions.

Source:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/can-the-uk-get-an-extension-on-brexit

robinph

Applying for an extension will be rejected unless they can agree in advance on why they want the extension. Running a referendum being about the only reason for it to be granted. Anything like needing time to renegotiate or run a general election, which is basically just to lead to more negotiations, will be rejected.

It could really do with someone from the EU explaining to them in simple terms what their options are, but that would then give ammo to the extreme brexiteers that the EU is trying to dictate to the UK and increase support for the crash out...so the EU have to keep quiet and hope the UK figures it out for themselves.

Chips Lovell

I'd say the EU will only allow an extension if there's the prospect of some meaningful development, i.e. reconsideration of red lines or another referendum. If the extension is to just postpone the inevitable while pretending there's some magical alternative to the current situation, I can't see it being granted.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

We will be able to choose whichever chickens we want.
I think you’ll find that currently in the Eu we don’t have any choice but to drink chlorinated water

The poorer in society don't decide what chicken they get, the price dictakes that.

Will the NHS continue to buy EU chickens or the lower price GMO feed US Chickens do you think?

That a argument based on ignornace of the realities facing people.

Do you think people choose to buy the cheapest cars rather than everyone driving a Ferrari?

LeinsterDub

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

It seems to me (please rapidly correct me if I’m way off), that if we the Irish were to agree that we would erect a “light border” in the north, this might serve to reduce the backstop issue and the UK could have a soft brexit instead of a complete crash out resulting in our need to put up a full border anyway.

The English say they don’t want a no deal but they’re heading for that iceberg and it could be too late to turn.

I know Varadkar wouldn’t be up for it but it’s honestly looking like a car crash from my perspective and a lot of our goods do still come through the UK.

On the other hand perhaps the UK is heading for a remain and loss of face, and any further action on the Irish or EU side might steer them into a soft brexit instead of a remain?

I’m sure I’ll be corrected about the realities here but I just wanted to explore some hypotheticals.

Any light border will inevitably be attacked thus requiring it to become a slightly harder border inevitably leading to more attacks. Eventually leading to a hard border

Itssoeasy

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

Professor Moriarty

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

Here is former British Prime Minister John Major on what a hard border would mean for Ireland:

“A hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

We will be able to choose whichever chickens we want.
I think you’ll find that currently in the Eu we don’t have any choice but to drink chlorinated water

If you think the EU is bad just wait till you try to engage with the US in a trade deal by yourselves. Even under a democratic president/congress you will come out far worse than any situation you have ever had within the EU.

LeinsterDub

The hypocritics of the Tories are on the floor now. Somehow arguing that a government which was absolutely destroyed yesterday and who's leader only 2/3 has support of her own members have full confidence in the government and TM.

EdgeCase

RMAOK wrote: »

Am I right in saying that the extension of the article 50 requires the approval of the other 27 EU members?

I know they can revoke their application without permission from the other 27

And in some cases not just the 27 but there are constitutional requirements to potentially consult regional / state parliaments.

Also there's the slight issue that there's no Belgian government at the moment, so they might not even be able to sign off of a treaty change at all.

Belgian politics can be like Northern Ireland without the guns. The two sides don't agree on most things, yet have to work together. So I wouldn't be expecting smooth Government formation after the elections.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here is former British Prime Minister John Major on what a hard border would mean for Ireland:

“A hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

I think that applies to the UK too,a hard border would be disastrous and put UK/Irish relations back to the 70's.

Leroy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The hypocritics of the Tories are on the floor now. Somehow arguing that a government which was absolutely destroyed yesterday and who's leader only 2/3 has support of her own members have full confidence in the government and TM.

It really is quite something. She suffered resignations and mass revolt over her Chequers plan. That was her big idea and it failed miserably.

So then she went off to the EU to get a compromise deal, one that has suffered the largest defeat in the HoC since....well it was humiliating.

And then they, including the likes of JRM, Johnson, Davis, Raab etc, are going to walk through and vote confidence in a person they are deemed to be completely unable to deliver what they want.

On a human level, I fell somewhat sorry for her. She is being kept in a job that nobody thinks she can do, nothing wants her to do. Can you imagine her having to walk into No 10 each day passing the staff knowing they are actually feeling sorry for her, knowing that they they know she is useless and powerless.

Its pitiful really but in its own way perfectly sums up Brexit and the UK.

VinLieger

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

Whats a light border?


A border poll can only be granted by the UK government and no Tory government is going to grant one. I'd even be surprised if a labour one under corbyn were to do so as it would lead to a complete shattering of the union due to soctlands inevitable 2nd indy ref too.

Leroy42

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

It is amazing that Ireland can see the damage that UK leaving EU without a deal will do and the UK can even see the damage it will do to Ireland, yet they seem totally unable to admit that No deal will therefore have massive consequences for them.

So someone like JRM comes out with the lines that Leo needs to back Brexit as a No deal will be terrible for Ireland, but when asked if a No Deal is something to worry about for the UK simply says its all Project Fear and there is nothing to worry about.

Leroy42

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Don’t we get a say in when there’s a border poll? The north voted against brexit

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

igCorcaigh

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

All I've seen is this

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1085142102009245696?s=19

MarkHenderson

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

Metroid diorteM

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

Ok, thanks

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

Not quite - the GFA says that if there is to be a Border poll, then it has to be held both North and South simultaneously:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

lawred2

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

What would you like to see?

Dyr

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

The actions being what?

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Not quite - the GFA says that if there is to be a Border poll, then it has to be held both North and South simultaneously:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

Yes, but the question was whether we have any say in when it is called is my understanding.

Call me Al

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

I think the ROI are working on the expectation that things will deteriorate significantly quicker for the UK in the event of a no deal. The difficulties we will have here 're a border or customs checks will be nothing in comparison with the cross-channel border through which the bulk of their economy is maintained.
This situation will force the British gov't back to Brussels asking for help. I'd imagine the value of the backstop to the ordinary English voter would pale into insignificance under those circumstances.

Leroy42

Guy Verhofstadt has come out and tweeted that any A50 extension would be limited to short of the European Elections (May I believe, not sure of the date).

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1085458645280788482

The other thing to note is the language. "The mess". Clearly the EU is totally fed up with the whole thing. I would read this, and other statements, as very much the EU sending out the signal that they are not going to compromise so that the promised last minute deal of the likes of Davis, is simply not going to happen.

Captain Obvious

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

Can you clarify on what issues you think need to be addressed that caused Brexit? You mentioned it earlier and didn't elaborate. One change I think would make a big difference is media standards being implemented.

EdgeCase

One of the things that worries me a lot is that the ability for parliamentary systems' governments to collapse in times like this is a bit like having the correct fuses fitted in your house. It's a safety measure. When things go faulty and overload, they safely melt and cut the power.

In British politics at the moment a sense of crisis and the Fixed Term Parliament act is acting like a bypassed fuse, replaced with screw or wrapped in tinfoil. The power is on, the lights are on but flickering and there's a strong smell of melting plastic and a big risk of the house suddenly burning down.

All these lost vote and the minority government somehow carries on regardless. That's dangerous and they've clearly got an incredible weak mandate to govern or negotiate anything.