Brexit Discussion Thread VI

briany

devnull wrote: »

Been busy all day and came back to see little has changed.

From what I can see
- May has ruled out a peoples vote
- May has ruled out a customs union
- May has ruled out an extension to Article 50
- May has ruled out withdrawing article 50.

She's also refused to rule out no deal, which seems to be the only other option left on the table

Maybe May's strategy to avoid a No Deal is to make the very fabric of reality crash in on itself.

Rjd2

Water John wrote: »

Certainly both Corbyn and May stand accused of putting their party's before country. For May this is a more major mistake as per primary role is that of Prime Minister of the country.

May has to deliver Brexit no matter what she thinks of it, as for better or worse the majority of Tory supporters want it. However I disagree that their is any mileage in the Corbyn strategy, sure there are leave supporters voters, but majority of his party want to remain or the softest Brexit possible.

Corbyn will win the next election, but his current stance is so absurd, it gives the Tories a glimmer, unacceptable tbh.

wiggle16

Bit cynical wrote: »

However this is the first time any country is leaving the EU, so I don't think you can suggest that it is an established principle. The EU have simply arbitrarily decided that trade will not be discussed while other aspects of the future relationship are being discussed and, as they are the stronger party, that is that. But there's no underlying principle at work here or, if there is, you haven't pointed it out.

I know what you're saying but the fact is that you have to establish the legal relationship between the UK and the EU before you can discuss a trade deal. It's not an arbitrary decision, it's a sensible one. You cannot base the legal relationship on a trade deal or allow a trade deal to influence that relationship. You are correct that they are not basing it on precedent, because there isn't one: they are basing it on the fact that negotiating a trade deal before the future relationship is established or concurrently with it would be chaotic (and look how things have fared so far) and unworkable.

It would effectively mean that Britain would be allowed to negotiate a trade deal on its own terms before deciding whether or not to leave the EU (the referendum wasn't legally binding and Article 50 can be revoked) and itself sets a bad precedent should another country decide to leave. Cameron went to Brussels to get a deal prior to the referendum to convince the UK to stay. Discussing trade while still a member state would be the exact opposite of that. It would turn into the UK govt trying to make leaving the EU an attractive option.

That's also why the EU refused to discuss anything before Article 50 was invoked. It gives Britain an unfair advantage and would have turned Article 50 into something to threaten the EU with rather than being a part of the legal process.

Besides, they can't even work out the legal relationship they want with the EU as things stand, never mind a trade deal.

Bit cynical

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Fair enough. When and where were these meetings given that youre pretty sure they happened?

Could not remember the exact dates.

EU leaders will meet without U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in December to discuss Britain’s impending departure from the Union.

It will be the third meeting of EU27 leaders without Britain since the U.K.’s vote to leave the bloc in June.

Leaders are expected to meet on the second day of December's European Council summit on Friday the 16th, in the same format as the June European Council when the 27 met days after the Brexit vote in an informal meeting in Brussels without David Cameron.

Source

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

Could not remember the exact dates.

EU leaders will meet without U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in December to discuss Britain’s impending departure from the Union.

It will be the third meeting of EU27 leaders without Britain since the U.K.’s vote to leave the bloc in June.

Leaders are expected to meet on the second day of December's European Council summit on Friday the 16th, in the same format as the June European Council when the 27 met days after the Brexit vote in an informal meeting in Brussels without David Cameron.

Source

Why wouldn't they meet without the British PM? Does Juncker get invited to cabinet meetings?

theguzman

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Professor Moriarty

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Correct. If there is no deal then there will be a hard border. This isn't news.

eire4

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

There is no jumping going on there at all. We all know and have know that if they leave with no deal there will be a hard border that is a fact which our government and everyone has always acknowledged. It of course is not something we want to have happen but it is reality.

A Dub in Glasgo

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

You have not read anything before about No Deal if you think this is news

brickster69

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Of course that will happen. It is an EU border now, not Irish.

Phonehead

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Well that's an interesting take on Britain withdrawing from the EU and not agreeing to Northern Ireland staying in the CU to avoid a hard border........................... It's all the EU's fault :rolleyes:

A Dub in Glasgo

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course that will happen. It is an EU border now, not Irish.

It is the UK border in Ireland which will be a UK / EU border

Water John

Nick Boles Con MP, is very good at dealing with Andrew Neil on BBC 2.
Nick admits he has made errors and has learned along the way, flummoxes Neil.
Doesn't allow Neil cut him off from finishing his points.

theguzman

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why wouldn't they meet without the British PM? Does Juncker get invited to cabinet meetings?

Someone was querying whether it was possible for the EU members to meet and decide things (in that instance trade) without the input of the UK and asked me to provide examples.

Professor Moriarty

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

Brilliant logic.

Phonehead

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

You should definitely contact your local TD and share this brilliant insight on Irelands Brexit tactic.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

Someone was querying whether it was possible for the EU members to meet and decide things (in that instance trade) without the input of the UK and asked me to provide examples.

Indeed. It would irrational to discuss future relationships and negotiating strategy when the other party is in the room.

Anthracite

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example.

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

theguzman wrote: »

A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

theguzman

Anthracite wrote: »

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

A customs union undermines economic sovereignty and imposes rules on the UK over which they have no input so they have to leave. It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

Hurrache

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

As I said a few days, nobody but the very naive would assume no border in the event of no deal.

The Germans you put on a pedestal haven't told us anything we didn't know already.

theguzman wrote: »

a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK

Normally I'd assume a typo, but with your posting history I'm not so sure.

Irishmale0399

Anthracite wrote: »

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

Its all very simple....the EU has to show balls and tell the UK that the deal is on the table and that is all they are getting. Take it or leave it.....if they dont we will have Greece, Italy and a few others trying to get out without any real loss.



As for the border.....an EU customs/police force to monitor it and let people get on with their lives, if the people in the North dont like it they can do as I expect the Scots will and organise an indepenence referendum and join the EU once they are free of English rule.

Phonehead

theguzman wrote: »

A customs union undermines economic sovereignty and imposes rules on the UK over which they have no input so they have to leave. It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

So we are both standing up to the UK and co-operating with them at the same time. Amazing.

Love it! for real you should be a Government advisor.

Capt'n Midnight

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

EEA is all the obligations they have at the moment without any benefits; all free movements, taking EU law. They might be able to make their own third-nation trade deals, but they'd be hindered by single market rules and EFTA.

The only positive for the UK to EEA is... fisheries?

I've posted before about fishing. Most of the quotas are held by big companies and good few foreign ones at that. So sweet FA for the locals.

Pre-EU deals with other countries mean the UK won't be taking back control of fishing anytime soon anyway.

At present half the UK catch is landed in foreign ports because the UK doesn't enforce the existing rules. So lots of lost jobs and tax. And with a Hard Brexit there'll be tariffs too. .

Hurrache

Official call up for the military reservists in preparation for a no deal. Delivering food parcels, blockade airlifts, refamiliarisation with a certain border area..

All the hallmarks of a modern functioning democracy anyway.

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1085863863717937152?s=19/

TheRiverman

You would think Brexit never existed this evening on BBC and Sky News.Its all about Prince Phillip crashing his Range Rover at Sandringham earlier today.

Capt'n Midnight

theguzman wrote: »

It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

Exports to the UK count for just 6% of our GDP.

And we'd hope to make up some of the shortfall by companies transferring here to remain in the EU.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. It would irrational to discuss future relationships and negotiating strategy when the other party is in the room.

Therefore this could also have been done with trade to avoid a conflict of interest. The point had been made that trade talks could not have occurred because the UK would have been on both sides of the table. However it is possible to exclude one party when necessary.

Irishmale0399

A German politician was asked today on local German radio if he really felt that the British reports that the German economy would suffer badly after a no deal Brexit were true.......his answer was very simple and clear....

If they leave they have to do deals with the world which will take time and will not put them in a good position due to desperation to save their own economy.....Ireland, Germany, France etc. will all work together and get on, with or without the UK. The UK is not the EU...the EU is much bigger and stronger and we will stand together.

Capt'n Midnight

News dump.

Brexit means the UK gov't isn't planning to keep the lights on.
All but one of the UK's existing nuclear power plants are due to close by 2030. Only one of the six new plants is going ahead.
A Hard Brexit means importing electricity may have extra costs.


https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46896530
A reminder that a Hard Brexit means things like data transfers get tricky.

Housing market outlook worst 'for 20 years' Uncertainty.
Property values also affect the balance sheet. Enough of a fall and some companies would become insolvent.


Make no mistake, anything other than calling off the whole thing means years more haggling and presumably humiliation.
Ministers must clarify the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Switzerland and up to 70 non-EU countries,