Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

Anyone getting a serious impression of the second referendum drum being banged everywhere all of a sudden? Id say its guaranteed to happen now.

Since I said that 24 hours ago the front page of every Sunday paper, all the top stories on BBC, the top 20 posts on the UK politics subreddit and basically every post over there all calling for it now, plus the bookies have moved it to most likely outcome aswell.

Headshot

Thargor wrote: »

Since I said that 24 hours ago the front page of every Sunday paper, all the top stories on BBC, the top 20 posts on the UK politics subreddit and basically every post over there all calling for it now, plus the bookies have moved it to most likely outcome aswell.

hmm I wonder is no 10 trying to force the Brexiteers to get on board or else....

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

They even left out the fact that we have an independent referendum commission which is resposnible for publishing the facts surrounding whatever referendum is currently being debated.

Doesn't make it clear that a referendum can only be reversed by another one. Instead in the UK Parliament is Sovereign .

Or mention that we vote on the Exact Words that neither the Courts nor Parliament can change or ignore.

Or make it clear that we've got written agreements from the EU to referendums through in the past.

Or how we gave up the our claim on the North.


Again I'll point out that voting in the UK is far easier, especially if you live in one of 60% odd safe seats where your vote really doesn't matter. The hardest bit for many voters is working out which of your enemy's enemies to waste your vote on.

Here it's fun watching the permutations, and there's Devil Take The Hindmost where every TD's worst enemy is their running mate.

lawred2

Thargor wrote: »

Since I said that 24 hours ago the front page of every Sunday paper, all the top stories on BBC, the top 20 posts on the UK politics subreddit and basically every post over there all calling for it now, plus the bookies have moved it to most likely outcome aswell.

RTE news just said May is still having none of it and will say so tomorrow..

Something about British politics being undermined or some other twaddle as if they themselves haven't being undermining it on a daily basis since the Referendum was announced..

Rjd2

fergiesfolly wrote: »

How about a two option referendum: No-Deal vs Remain.
But if neither option passes with a 60% majority, the UK reverts to Mays deal and leaves.

I think that's not a bad idea, but maybe three options on the ballot, mays deal, no deal and leave? Then two with most votes go to the next round. I dunno what the treshhold should be for round 1,,,maybe 50% and you win fair and square? Or maybe the two with the most votes, so Brexiters won't feel that having two brexit options is splitting their votes.

On Corbyn...I know Cohen writes bollocks and he will always be biased when it comes to him...

The below stuck out,,

Beyond the practicalities lies the morality. To wish suffering on people who are weaker and poorer than you is disgusting and it is no less disgusting when Jeremy Corbyn rather than Jacob Rees-Mogg is hoping that the misery of others will advance his political programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/16/why-are-labour-party-leaders-so-quiet-on-europe---maybe-it-is-the-lure-of-disaster?CMP=share_btn_tw

Recent Yougov poll...

YouGov: has CON lead up to 4

CON 40 (+2)
LAB 36 (-1)
LD 10 (=)
Changes vs 6th-7th Dec

I don't know how that is possible tbh. I think the grown ups in the Labour party will force Corbyn into backing a second referendum, their current position is comedic and appeases no side. He won't want to, but its possible he may blow the next election if he doesn't which really should not be possible when you look at how awful the tories are.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

RTE news just said May is still having none of it and will say so tomorrow..

Something about British politics being undermined or some other twaddle as if they themselves haven't being undermining it on a daily basis since the Referendum was announced..

What I said earlier. It won't happen with her at the controls. It's limpet-like stubborness and the fact that she's painted herself into a corner. She has to go. No other way imo.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

What I said earlier. It won't happen with her at the controls. It's limpet-like stubborness and the fact that she's painted herself into a corner. She has to go. No other way imo.

Indeed, she said two or three weeks ago that there will be no referendum while she is the PM. People seem to be nearly forgetting this.....if one goes ahead, we would have to assume she will have left office, otherwise it is not happening.

prawnsambo

The one thing she could do if she had the guts for it is introduce a motion for the HoC (or a series - I'm not sure of the exact procedures) for her deal, no deal or revoke A50. It would put it up to parliament and get a lot of the fence sitters to actually state a position. I'm looking at you Jeremy Corbyn.

Sierra Oscar

lawred2 wrote: »

RTE news just said May is still having none of it and will say so tomorrow..

Something about British politics being undermined or some other twaddle as if they themselves haven't being undermining it on a daily basis since the Referendum was announced..

The biggest problem I see when it comes the second referendum proposal is that there isn't any agreement in the House of Commons regarding what the referendum question should even be.

Is it a referendum to abandon Brexit entirely? Is it one to back either Theresa May's deal or accept a hard-Brexit?

I reckon any second referendum will be extremely divisive regardless of the question put to the people and will only serve to polarise the debate even further. If a proposal to water down Brexit was passed by a slim majority then the Brexiteer's would keep demanding a third referendum. Dangerous stuff.

Capt'n Midnight

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think that's not a bad idea, but maybe three options on the ballot, mays deal, no deal and leave? Then two with most votes go to the next round. I dunno what the treshhold should be for round 1,,,maybe 50% and you win fair and square? Or maybe the two with the most votes, so Brexiters won't feel that having two brexit options is splitting their votes.

This again ?

May's deal will likely finish last because it's Brexit In Name Only and a lot of voters will have it as a second choice as their backstop.

So its Leave vs Remain.


Different options / weighted voting setups would see May's Deal win.

Whoever sets the question gets a huge advantage.



It's the economy stupid.

Here's someone complaining about a £165.99 telescope - the penny hasn't dropped. Or rather it has and a lot of people haven't noticed.
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/celestron-31051-astromaster-130eq-reflector-telescope-motor-drive-16599-amazon-3136427

Just looked on CCC and Amazon have previously been selling this for £119 so not that good a deal...
...

These telescopes are imported, the £119 price you see was from 2.5 years ago when the GBP was around 1.41 euro when it is now 1.11 euro and even for that strong GBP that particular price was a suprisingly good deal that happened only once. So, no it is not going to come near that price again (unless we miraculously manage to turn around the GBP?)

Leroy42

TM needs to grow pair and start being brutally honest with the electorate. She has already accepted that this deal is the best she is going to get, she wasn't asking for anything new last week just for a rewording etc.

But she should make it clear to the voters that they can't continue to believe that Brexit is totally painless. Even the fact that the fables FTA will bring it with plenty of regulation alignment (so taking rules for the EU) hasn't even been mentioned.

The voters need to be made starkly aware that decisions need to be made. Want full leave, then due to GFA either there will be a border or we dump NI (in terms of regulations).

Want continued free travel within the EU, then FoM into the UK will not end.
Want access to Galieo, Euratom etc, then be prepared to continued to make payments with no say.
Want to take back control of fishing rights, are you ready to buy the fish that will no longer go to the continent?

She had nothing left to offer. She has n support in the EU, her party is totally split.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, she said two or three weeks ago that there will be no referendum while she is the PM. People seem to be nearly forgetting this.....if one goes ahead, we would have to assume she will have left office, otherwise it is not happening.

A week is a long time in politics.

It's impressive how many times she's made it to Friday.
Good for her, but at the expense of the ordinary voter ?

She's not even looking to the next election. Safe seat anyway.

What the UK needs is a statesperson, someone who looks a generation ahead, someone who at least cares about their legacy.



The UK media and politicians need to listen to the people's concerns about non-Brexit issues and or educate them on what a Brexit will really mean.


So far it's not even clear if either party understands how much the UK economy relies on exporting services to the EU or how many countries like ourselves are working to take that business away from them.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A week is a long time in politics.

It's impressive how many times she's made it to Friday.
Good for her, but at the expense of the ordinary voter ?

She's not even looking to the next election. Safe seat anyway.

What the UK needs is a statesperson, someone who looks a generation ahead, someone who at least cares about their legacy.



The UK media and politicians need to listen to the people's concerns about non-Brexit issues and or educate them on what a Brexit will really mean.


So far it's not even clear if either party understands how much the UK economy relies on exporting services to the EU or how many countries like ourselves are working to take that business away from them.

You would think though it would be simpler for her to say nothing about another referendum. Instead, she is doubling down and practically announcing "Over my dead body", so it's hard to tell what she is playing at.

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

it's hard to tell what she is playing at.

and that'll get her to Friday

Leroy42

[QUOTE=Strazdas;108899997 it's hard to tell what she is playing at.[/QUOTE]

I agree with Ian Dunt on this. All the theories about her having some grand plan, some well thought out plan to bring the country with her and stay on good terms with the EU, has been shown to be a fiction.

Her only plan is to get to the end of the next crisis. She didn't get on board with the DUP because of some desire to protect the union, she needed their votes to remain PM.

She didn't come up with Chequers because of some deep held conviction, she did it to try to create some level of acceptance from both the Tories and the EU. She has totally ditched it.

Her putting off of the vote on her deal, and now seeminlgy trying to postpone any vote until January, is purely meant to keep her in power as long as the next deadline.

LeinsterDub

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/16/jaguar-land-rover-to-axe-up-to-5000-jobs

Jaguar Land Rover is planning to announce thousands of job cuts in the new year as part of a £2.5bn savings plan to ward off the threat from Brexit, falling sales in China and a drop in demand for diesel cars

5000 jobs! Wow I mean just wow. And yet the reality deniers continue to pretend it's not happening

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1074438319914786818

cryptocurrency

Jaguar started their plant in Slovakia before Brexit vote and yet the media had s claiming it’s because if Brexit ..nuts

Leroy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Jaguar started their plant in Slovakia before Brexit vote and yet the media had s claiming it’s because if Brexit ..nuts

True, but Brexit was supposed to give the UK all these benefits and there appear to be none.

Dyson decided to invest its electric car manufacturing and JLR are not either.

If they can't even hold these brands what benefits are there?

cryptocurrency

If the UK proper Brexit they will have loads. The EU is very undemocratic and anti competition. They are best off out, and especially after what happened today in Brussels...run a mile.

LeinsterDub

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK proper Brexit they will have loads. The EU is very undemocratic and anti competition. They are best off out, and especially after what happened today in Brussels...run a mile.

Please expand on these soundbites. How is the EU undemocratic or anti competitive?

Leroy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK proper Brexit they will have loads. The EU is very undemocratic and anti competition. They are best off out, and especially after what happened today in Brussels...run a mile.

So you think JRL are disinvesting in the UK but will restart in a year or two? These companies are making multi-year investments.

You said yourself that JRL had gone done this path prior to Brexit, but now you think they will reverse them when they realise the benefits.

Maybe you could point out these benefits, as none of the manufacturers, the PM, most of the HoC, ex PM's seem to be able to see what is apparently so obvious.

And if they really are anti-competitive, surely that means that leaving it means the UK are ruled out of any future deals>

cryptocurrency

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

cryptocurrency

Leroy42 wrote: »

So you think JRL are disinvesting in the UK but will restart in a year or two? These companies are making multi-year investments.

You said yourself that JRL had gone done this path prior to Brexit, but now you think they will reverse them when they realise the benefits.

Maybe you could point out these benefits, as none of the manufacturers, the PM, most of the HoC, ex PM's seem to be able to see what is apparently so obvious.

And if they really are anti-competitive, surely that means that leaving it means the UK are ruled out of any future deals>

I never made any comment on JLR returning but I did say the UK is best off running a mile for the disgraceful EU. I actually despise the EU but sadly have to wait for more people here to start joining the calls to tell them to stick it. They will have collapsed long before ireland tells them to go.

lawred2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK proper Brexit they will have loads. The EU is very undemocratic and anti competition. They are best off out, and especially after what happened today in Brussels...run a mile.

Loads of what?

cryptocurrency

Flexibility to set up trade deals with the real parts of the world that are growing at an exponential rate. UK needs to focus on trade with the US, Asian nations and the commonwealth.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Flexibility to set up trade deals with the real parts of the world that are growing at an exponential rate. UK needs to focus on trade with the US, Asian nations and the commonwealth.

Yes, China and India will be a doddle to deal with and give an awesome deal out of the generosity of their heart.

Are you really that innocent?

Leroy42

They can't even manage to negotiate a deal with the EU, what deals are they going to be able to sign with these other countries.

India has already stated that increased Visas will form a part of any trade deal. The US are able to force the UK into an illegal war, what makes you think the UK will suddenly be able to drive trade talks?

Asia? Like Japan, the same Japan who just agreed a deal with the EU?

And the commonwealth. Like who? Australia have already said they will await other deals before committing to anything.

And what are the keys factors of these deals that are not available within the EU?

cryptocurrency

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Yes, China and India will be a doddle to deal with and give an awesome deal out of the generosity of their heart.

Are you really that innocent?

We are talking about the UK not us

blackcard

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Flexibility to set up trade deals with the real parts of the world that are growing at an exponential rate. UK needs to focus on trade with the US, Asian nations and the commonwealth.

You mean places where the EU already have trade deals?

Sierra Oscar

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They are unelected bureaucrats who most of the continent are ruled by and don’t relate with. I look on with bemusement at Junker, Tusk, Barnier and that Vosstad eejit. I never voted for them yet we are ruled by them.

They are also protectionist, they are scared witless if the UK free of the shackles and making a fist of it...which they will.

Three of the people you mention were Prime Minister's of their respective countries while the other held senior Ministries. Each of them were elected time and time again by their electorates.

They aren't exactly career bureaucrats like you make them out to be.