Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Russman

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but May's deal is dead in the water. What matters between now and April is what most MPs want, not what May wants.

True, but I think most MPs don't want to leave at all but are terrified to say it for fear of their seats and being seen to "go against the people". With the result they can say what they don't want but are unable to say what they do actually want. I suppose a bit like David Lammy said in his speech, sometimes you have to tell the people they're wrong. Yet when you see an audience like on Question Time last night, how could the local MP say they're in favour of remaining and not be lynched ?

Zubeneschamali

Russman wrote: »

True, but I think most MPs don't want to leave at all but are terrified to say it for fear of their seats and being seen to "go against the people".

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

Beechwoodspark

wiggle16 wrote: »

I was wondering when this colossal muppet was going to swoop in and make an appearance:

https://news.sky.com/story/johnson-now-is-the-time-to-use-brexit-to-unite-the-country-11610285

The UK's answer to Silvio Berlusconi is back, dagger in hand and all.

Boris was talking utter rubbish after the vote the other evening

His “advice” was go back to Brussels, tell them off about what the Uk don’t like in the deal, and then tell them to get on with it.


Laughable. His main interest is media attention

Keatsian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

Except it would never satisfy the Tory Brexiters, which defeats the purpose of the whole exercise.

josip wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole's piece in the Guardian today is interesting.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/18/europe-brexit-britain-state-politics-fit-for-purpose

It would be more interesting if it was in the Telegraph or the Sun but one must accept that most media outlets, and UK newspapers are no exception, are little more than echo chambers for their existing audiences.

Even though I don't disagree with the thrust of his argument, somehow O'Toole is what I imagine when I try to picture how Remain might manage to lose a second referendum.

RobMc59

branie2 wrote: »

If that lady knew what Cromwell did to Ireland, she'd quickly change her tune

It's similar to President Bush describing the invasion of Iraq as a "Crusade"!

Hurrache

May and her ministers apparently are set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

spacecoyote

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Boris was talking utter rubbish after the vote the other evening

His “advice” was go back to Brussels, tell them off about what the Uk don’t like in the deal, and then tell them to get on with it.


Laughable. His main interest is media attention

There are always 2 things that come to my mind when I hear Boris spouting his rubbish.

One, a quote from the bard himself: "...a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"

The other, a song by the Godfather of Soul: "Talking Loud and Saying Nothing"

He really is the ultimate bluffer, but it appears that an enormous amount of the British public buy in to it. Is it really a case that if someone talks to them with a posh accent that they just assume that he must be talking sense?

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently is set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years apparently, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

May taking a page out of the Trump playbook.

prawnsambo

spacecoyote wrote: »

There are always 2 things that come to my mind when I hear Boris spouting his rubbish.

One, a quote from the bard himself: "...a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"

The other, a song by the Godfather of Soul: "Talking Loud and Saying Nothing"

He really is the ultimate bluffer, but it appears that an enormous amount of the British public buy in to it. Is it really a case that if someone talks to them with a posh accent that they just assume that he must be talking sense?

I suspect it is to a large extent. You get the same reverence towards JRM for precisely the same reasons. I've seen people getting into pearl-clutching outrage if somebody says he's a liar or even a bit disingenuous.

Winters

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently is set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years apparently, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

230 years? Exactly 230? I love the irony.

lawred2

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Boris was talking utter rubbish after the vote the other evening

His “advice” was go back to Brussels, tell them off about what the Uk don’t like in the deal, and then tell them to get on with it.


Laughable. His main interest is media attention

It's not laughable though

the right (wrong sic.) media attention yields incredible results

Brexit is the result of the right type of media attention
Trump is the result of the right type of media attention

His 'advice' will have resonated with millions of people. People who see that as how to 'handle' arrogant Europeans.

How correct or even remotely feasible his statements are are irrelevant. No-one seems to cares about what's real anymore.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently is set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years apparently, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

and this will be cheered on by the masses who will freely use such terms as traitor and villain because he had the temerity to be balanced

Water John

Brexit on the 29th March is very real and will bite the British people in the ass.
At this stage I think a soft Brexit is best for those of us outside the UK. It will also be enough to prevent a breakaway Tory Party forming.

Havockk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Theres a ridiculous article in Irish times from a Spiked writer. I do wish they would stop trying to influence us here with their nonsense. Incidentally, she appears to be another of peasant stock - Ella Whelan.

This kind of rubbish is creeping into Irish media sources more and more. Don't think there couldn't be a full blown media campaign for irexit in the event of a no-deal brexit.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just can't remember the chronology.

Would Theresa's deal have been home and dry or done and dusted had the DUP not pulled a strop in December? Would she have had to take that one to parliament?

She would have been struggling for enough votes for any deal. There is no deal out there that has enough support due to her red lines and the factions within the Conservative Party. She may have gotten a deal with the help of Corbyn but I think Labour would have balked at this as any positives the government would have claimed and blamed the negatives on Labour. That is what FPTP does.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

This kind of rubbish is creeping into Irish media sources more and more. Don't think there couldn't be a full blown media campaign for irexit in the event of a no-deal brexit.

It's important that voices from the other side are heard. If only to confirm that they are talking rubbish.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's important that voices from the other side are heard. If only to confirm that they are talking rubbish.

In normal times I'd probably agree. These aren't normal times and between me and you, a hell of a lot of people are susceptible to not listening to reason.

J Mysterio

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

seamus

It's about 3 months too late, but it's good for a chuckle.

A small group of people went about getting billboard-sized printouts of ironic/hypocritical tweets and quotes from Brexiteers, and pasted them up (unauthorised).

After a show of support they've decided to go legit with it, run a proper set of authorised billboards, and in something reminiscent of the abortion debate in Ireland, their crowdfunding attempt smashed its original goal in a couple of hours;

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/by-donkeys

Like I say, it's way too late I feel to be of any real impact.

Zubeneschamali

Keatsian wrote: »

Except it would never satisfy the Tory Brexiters, which defeats the purpose of the whole exercise.

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:


a) instructs the Government to seek a Norway Deal.


b) Instructs the Government that if a withdrawal agreement is not in place on, say, March 22nd, they are to write to the EU unilaterally withdrawing the A50 letter.


And the Tory Brexiters and DUP can go and sh!te. (That doesn't have to be in the legislation)


This does not achieve Corbyn's goal of a general election and Labour Government, which is why no-one has tried it yet. But when we get down to the wire, it is perfectly doable.

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently are set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

How incredibly petty of them

ToBeFrank123

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:


a) instructs the Government to seek a Norway Deal.


b) Instructs the Government that if a withdrawal agreement is not in place on, say, March 22nd, they are to write to the EU unilaterally withdrawing the A50 letter.


And the Tory Brexiters and DUP can go and sh!te. (That doesn't have to be in the legislation)


This does not achieve Corbyn's goal of a general election and Labour Government, which is why no-one has tried it yet. But when we get down to the wire, it is perfectly doable.

Its hard to see how a Norway deal would work for the UK.

Lets be honest, Brexit was largely based on ending free movement of people. But people move freely between Norway and the EU.

Norway has also adopted EU legislation on coordination of social security, so that that people who move or commute between it and the EU qualify for benefits in case of unemployment or illness. In spite of not being an EU country, Norway has even joined the Schengen Agreement on abolishing border controls. In this way, the free movement between Norway and Sweden that has existed since the 1950s has been retained and reinforced by European cooperation.

http://theconversation.com/irish-border-after-brexit-an-expert-on-norway-sweden-explains-how-to-keep-things-smooth-88749

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

Unless the UK signs up to all EU legislation around trade and regulations, customs and border posts will be a must. And to stop free movement checks will need to be in place for that too.

Keatsian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:

For the Tories themselves I mean. This whole referendum was mainly for their benefit, in the forlorn hope that the party could put its divisions on Europe behind it.

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

Which is silly because if they crash out and they come crawling back for a deal we could simply state the backstop will be part of any agreement OR we could be more assertive and demand a border poll as part of the price of any deal if we wanted (expecially if theres a large campaign for reunification at the same time because of the failure of brexit).

The backstop came about because the Brits had burned their diplomatic capital and trust with their actions and statements. Its a legal requirement to prevent a hard border they cant escape that unless they remain within the customs union which they wont accept.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

Hmm. I think a more widely accepted narrative is that the backstop came from the EU side.

What does that even mean or matter?

Infini

Infini wrote: »

Which is silly because if they crash out and they come crawling back for a deal we could simply state the backstop will be part of any agreement OR we could be more assertive and demand a border poll as part of the price of any deal if we wanted (expecially if theres a large campaign for reunification at the same time because of the failure of brexit).

The backstop came about because the Brits had burned their diplomatic capital and trust with their actions and statements. Its a legal requirement to prevent a hard border they cant escape that unless they remain within the customs union which they wont accept.

A border poll is afaik the decision of the Secretary of state for Northern Ireland according to the Belfast Agreement.
I don't think we should demand it as it would quite rightly be seen as nationalist politicking.

Tell me how

Well, they were right. The Germans are pleading.

High profile Germans plead with UK to stay in the EU

The letter, published in the Times, is signed by 31 people, including the leader of the Christian Democratic Union - and likely successor to Angela Merkel - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and former Arsenal goalkeeper Jens Lehmann.

.......

The signatories said that they "respect the choice" of British people who want to leave the EU and, if the country wants to leave for good, "it will always have friends in Germany and Europe".

But they said the choice was not irreversible and "our door will always remain open".

ToBeFrank123

A border poll would fail in the short term.

But if Brexit goes t*ts up and people in the north are really struggling because of a poor economy, hard border, job losses and so on, the chances of it succeeding would improve.

Let's face it, Northerners must have some of the worst political leadership on the planet. Ours is at least slightly better.

The EU would or course have to help us subsidize the north if a United Ireland ever came to pass. I can't see most people in the UK missing the North if it left.

Dyr

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU would or course have to help us subsidize the north if a United Ireland ever came to pass. I can't see most people in the UK missing the North if it left.

TBH the UK can pay their share and all if we take the north on. It's their mess we're going to have to clean up

josip

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its hard to see how a Norway deal would work for the UK.

Lets be honest, Brexit was largely based on ending free movement of people. But people move freely between Norway and the EU.

http://theconversation.com/irish-border-after-brexit-an-expert-on-norway-sweden-explains-how-to-keep-things-smooth-88749

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

Unless the UK signs up to all EU legislation around trade and regulations, customs and border posts will be a must. And to stop free movement checks will need to be in place for that too.

Preventing EU citizens entering the UK, no longer requires a physical border thanks to the UK's innovation as they have promised countless times, despite the disbelief shown by Ireland/EU.

Their remarkable solution, which most other countries would have been incapable of implementing, is to embark on a course of economic self destruction unparalleled in modern Europe.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5352c28-f3bc-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f