Brexit Discussion Thread VI

An Claidheamh

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Kate Hoey on 'The View' saying that a no-deal Brexit will be much worse for Ireland than the north.

They need to have someone who's qualified on EU matters stand next to people being interviewed on Brexit with a big vuvuzela that gets blasted into their ear when they talk shit.

You can take the girl out of the orange order but you can't take the orange order out if the girl.

She's just another unionist caricature

Zubeneschamali

Keatsian wrote: »

For the Tories themselves I mean.

Some of them, sure, but a cross-party Norway deal leaves May in #10 til the next election so the most important Tory might see a silver lining.

An Claidheamh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A border poll is afaik the decision of the Secretary of state for Northern Ireland according to the Belfast Agreement.
I don't think we should demand it as it would quite rightly be seen as nationalist politicking.

Denying it would be unionist politicking, and there's more than enough of that.

The Dáil has a duty to enact the GFA.

An Claidheamh

J Mysterio wrote: »

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

1) it would be something else if it wasn't the backstop, it's a term like "Prussian militarism", for British simpletons to get behind and ignore the hypocrisy

2) It hasn't really backfired, Britain wants to be in the EU, just not a member

3) Britain already signed up to it as the only solution

4) It was their idea

Emerson is just trolling.

However, I for one think it would be great if it was the "Irish backstop" that broke the "United" Kingdom, put them out of Europe and led to a border poll

J Mysterio

Havockk wrote: »

This kind of rubbish is creeping into Irish media sources more and more. Don't think there couldn't be a full blown media campaign for irexit in the event of a no-deal brexit.

I dont like how having a website and being listed as a journalist there just lends legitimacy now. 'Spiked' is a deeply dubious entity which appears to be quite transparently a lobby group of some mysterious patronage.

These people have an agenda and they are trying to influence opinion and debate.

I really struggle with the idea that people can continue to press patently incorrect or highly dubious theoretical or emotive points - against logic, decency and factual reality - and be quickly accomodated by what are serious institutions from which we expect a high standard. That in Brexit, 'both sides' of the debate are in effect 'equal' and legitimate.

Infini

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Denying it would be unionist politicking, and there's more than enough of that.

The Dáil has a duty to enact the GFA.

It could also be argued the whole Brexit fiasco as well as how Stormont has been collapsed and not running all this time is also a breach of the GFA and its been primarily on the British side. If anything if a reunification movement were to emerge in the months following Brexit we would be well within our rights to demand such a poll because of the dual factors of it being part of the GFA AND because it would remove the only land border between the UK and EU if successful.

The only problem will be the shytstirrers from the DUP who helped cause the mess but they should be handled by quite simply taking the kid gloves off and holding them to account with hard facts.

RobMc59

Just my opinion but the rhetoric seems to be becoming increasingly extreme by the hour-sniping at each other doesn't help the situation.

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but May's deal is dead in the water. What matters between now and April is what most MPs want, not what May wants.

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

FreudianSlippers

May's deal is the only deal.

Tell me how

demfad wrote: »

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

Watching Question Time last night as well as a lot of UK media over the last few days, I fear unless Corbyn gets his finger out, they will exit with a No deal before May's deal is accepted.

If this was happening anytime up to 2 hundred years ago, the outcome would be civil war. I think the division and emotion involved is that deep.

Silent Running

demfad wrote: »

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

Well, the one that requires least work is a crash out no deal. It requires absolutely nothing to be done. Just wait out the clock.

Adamcp898

Infini wrote: »

It could also be argued the whole Brexit fiasco as well as how Stormont has been collapsed and not running all this time is also a breach of the GFA and its been primarily on the British side. If anything if a reunification movement were to emerge in the months following Brexit we would be well within our rights to demand such a poll because of the dual factors of it being part of the GFA AND because it would remove the only land border between the UK and EU if successful.

The only problem will be the shytstirrers from the DUP who helped cause the mess but they should be handled by quite simply taking the kid gloves off and holding them to account with hard facts.

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

Seth Brundle

So the main opposition in the UK is as divided as the government. Apparently if Corbyn pushes for a second referendum, Labour could lose twelve from his frontbench because of fear of voter reprisals (linky).
So what now?
The government have no leadership and the members cannot unite on a single stance.
Hopefully I'm wrong but I can't see May having a plan B ready for Monday.
The opposition aren't united and facing in one direction.
Is the UK just going to stumble it's way to March 29th?

Dyr

Adamcp898 wrote: »

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

The problem with Northern Ireland is we've always been willing to let a minority have their way for fear of them wrecking the place otherwise.


That nettle has to be grasped at some stage

Adamcp898

Bambi wrote: »

The problem with Northern Ireland is we've always been willing to let a minority have their way for fear of them wrecking the place otherwise.


That nettle has to be grasped at some stage

Which is currently a republican one, no?

The North at the moment is polarised and dysfunctional enough as it is given the lack of a sitting assembly and any dialogue between the two largest parties. To suggest forcing a United Ireland on top of that would just be plain stupid.

First Up

Seth Brundle wrote:

). So what now? The government have no leadership and the members cannot unite on a single stance. Hopefully I'm wrong but I can't see May having a plan B ready for Monday. The opposition aren't united and facing in one direction. Is the UK just going to stumble it's way to March 29th?

Looks that way. Best hope is they beg for mercy and more time but its hard to see UK politics coming up with a solution without a complete breakdown and reconstruction of the party system and probably at least a couple of leadership changes and elections.

5-10 years of hard Brexit and then we'll see if they can come to their senses. The commercial word has already taken this to be the reality and has moved on.

MrMusician18

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So the main opposition in the UK is as divided as the government. Apparently if Corbyn pushes for a second referendum, Labour could lose twelve from his frontbench because of fear of voter reprisals (linky).
So what now?
The government have no leadership and the members cannot unite on a single stance.
Hopefully I'm wrong but I can't see May having a plan B ready for Monday.
The opposition aren't united and facing in one direction.
Is the UK just going to stumble it's way to March 29th?

I think it's for reasons such as this that the opprobrium directed towards Corbyn on the second ref is perhaps a little unfair.

Christy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

Just my opinion but the rhetoric seems to be becoming increasingly extreme by the hour-sniping at each other doesn't help the situation.

To be fair the Germans sent a letter saying that they liked the Brits and were sorry they are going but respect their decision.

The BBC referred to it as "pleading".

What are you meant to do with that. If you are nice they call you weak. If you are not nice they call you a bully.

Will we see a reciprocal letter from the Brits? Somehow I doubt it.

VinLieger

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think it's for reasons such as this that the opprobrium directed towards Corbyn on the second ref is perhaps a little unfair.

Not when a majority of the Labour party members voted for it at the party conference and he continues to ignore it.

Dyr

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Which is currently a republican one, no?

The North at the moment is polarised and dysfunctional enough as it is given the lack of a sitting assembly and any dialogue between the two largest parties. To suggest forcing a United Ireland on top of that would just be plain stupid.

Nope, it's the minority that led to the creation of NI in the first place, we've seen various Irish politicians telling us that a 51% majority for a UI in a border poll is not enough. It's always coming back to keeping a subset of unionism from going Balubas a la Sunningdale.

Leroy42

But tbf, if the front bench of his party is threatening to resign if he calls for a 2ndRef then it isn't just about Corbyn. Clearly there are many others in the party that want to leave as well.

All those Labour supporters calling for movement should instead be looking at other areas to support, like the LibDems

FreudianSlippers

I doubt that the DUP would go for it, but if N.I. became an independent nation and was allowed to remain in the EU, they could also remain in the commonwealth and have a trade deal with Great Britain - problem solved?

(I mean obviously not, but just spit-balling)

Dyr

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I doubt that the DUP would go for it, but if N.I. became an independent nation and was allowed to remain in the EU, they could also remain in the commonwealth and have a trade deal with Great Britain - problem solved?

(I mean obviously not, but just spit-balling)

The DUP? Do you actually think Nationalists are going to go for the Orange Free State: Redux?

road_high

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I doubt that the DUP would go for it, but if N.I. became an independent nation and was allowed to remain in the EU, they could also remain in the commonwealth and have a trade deal with Great Britain - problem solved?

(I mean obviously not, but just spit-balling)

It would be funny watching them try survive in the real world without a London handout. Think Albania 1997..Will never happen though!

Adamcp898

Bambi wrote: »

Nope, it's the minority that led to the creation of NI in the first place, we've seen various Irish politicians telling us that a 51% majority for a UI in a border poll is not enough. It's always coming back to keeping a subset of unionism from going Balubas a la Sunningdale.

But yet you're willing to advocate the same line of reasoning now?

Anyway I'm not getting into a debate about the pros/cons of a UI. This is a discussion about Brexit, not wishful thinking :pac:

Panrich

This is very funny

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1086264773149380608

wiggle16

Panrich wrote: »

This is very funny

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1086264773149380608

It's actually maddening how shameless he is. In a f#cking JCB warehouse. Just so the reference to industry isn't lost on his dimmer supporters. Or if it is, they have all those big machines to gawp at.

I withdraw my previous comment about feeling sorry for the English for being duped. If they buy this performance then they deserve every minute of him.

jmayo

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just to clarify something from further up the thread. The IDA has been around since 1949. It's almost impossible to describe any post war Irish economic policy or activity without referencing it in some way.

It's probably the oldest organisation if it's type in existence and has been a template for many other countries' counterpart agencies.

...
Actually some of the Brexiteers should take a look at 1930s Ireland for an idea of where a policy of economic isolationism and politically driven ideologies of absolute self-sufficiency gets you.

It really wasn't until the T.K. Whitaker era that modern Ireland started to emerge. It took decades to get to where we are now, but that's where it started.

So to say that Ireland had great trade links before the IDA era is just not fact at all.....

Ehh since this was in response to me, I never said we had great trade links before IDA.
Being from a family plagued by multi generational emigration I know this all too well.

I said "we knew about the outside world long before the IDA started pimping us to the world."
That implies knowledge about places, not the fact we might have traded with them.
Unless you count emigrants sending funds home to their families as trade.

And we did have knowledge of the outside world in no small part thanks to that economic isolationism of that inward looking plonker Dev.
He would no doubt have been a big fan of Brexit.

Did anyone catch the weekly whinge fest that is Question Time ?
There are still a hell of a lot of Brits, particularly English, who really still think they are in the glory years.

jmayo

wiggle16 wrote: »

It's actually maddening how shameless he is. In a f#cking JCB warehouse. Just so the reference to industry isn't lost on his dimmer supporters. Or if it is, they have all those big machines to gawp at.

I withdraw my previous comment about feeling sorry for the English for being duped. If they buy this performance then they deserve every minute of him.

Ah come on be fair.
JCB is what is left of what was once a great indigenous British vehicle manufacturing industry.

The rest from their glory years, when they were even sometimes world leading design, have either disappeared entirely or have been bought up by foreigners.
And the shock and horror of it sometimes the foreigners hail from former colonies.

Next week he will be speaking from Morgan's plant.

Dyr

Adamcp898 wrote: »

But yet you're willing to advocate the same line of reasoning now?

Anyway I'm not getting into a debate about the pros/cons of a UI. This is a discussion about Brexit, not wishful thinking :pac:

Nope, Any change to the status of NI has to be with the consent of the NI electorate

I'm okay with that, you seem not be