Brexit Discussion Thread VI

flutered

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Russman wrote: »

True, but I think most MPs don't want to leave at all but are terrified to say it for fear of their seats and being seen to "go against the people".

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

i read on overclockers that the host and the floor manager spent twenty minutes before the show started telling dianne abbot jokes

Dyr

Adamcp898 wrote: »

This is what you said:



Then this:



You're advocating the merging of NI with the RoI against the current unionist majority. Hardly anything as noble as respecting the "consent of the NI electorate".


And I haven't expressed any opinion other than that it's generally a bad idea to force anything on anyone, something which I thought would be fairly obvious, so I'm not sure what I'm meant to be "not okay" with either.

Emphasis mine.

Emphasis mght be yours but so is the lack of attention to what is written.

It was a minority that led to the creation of NI, loyalism had no majority prior to the gerrymandering of the 6 counties, it was a minority which caused the collapse of the sunningdale agreement. If there is successful border poll it will be a minority once more that certain quarters will be tip toeing around as in your post:

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

There is no way to "force" a UI, if the people of NI vote for one it doesn't matter a damn if you, John Bruton or Gregory Campbell consider it "antagonistic". Unionism has always claimed its veto was based on the will of the people in NI but ultimately they have always relied on the bogey man of civic unrest and your mindset rewards their approach.

Sand

Havockk wrote: »

How do you see that playing out? Once the realisation hits?

You had a status quo where it could be shamelessly proposed in mainstream media that the UK could be governed indefinitely while ignoring a third of the people living in it. Its clear any form of Brexit will have a significant and negative GDP impact, but I think people are not grasping that Brexit was underpinned by a revolt against that status quo which locked them out. Even after the realisation that GDP is negatively affected, I don't think you're going to see rioting on the streets about GDP.

What is much more likely is political fragmentation as the realisation hits they are still ignored and locked out by Westminster, of which the disaster capitalists are only a faction.

Donald Trump

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The working classes suffer more, those who are mobile amongst whom I am sufficiently fortunate to count myself by virtue of my being Irish will leave the country in larger numbers than at present while the Jacob Rees-Moggs of the country enrich themselves with Project Singapore-on-Thames. All the while the media will be desperately looking for scapegoats. If people equate Brexit with greater sovereignty, Murdoch, Desmond, the Barclays and Rothermere might find their margins taking a hit.

I disagree


We already know that any post Brexit declined will be the explained away as evil EU punishing the British people for their cheek in wanting democracy or some such shite or for "winning WWII" or some such variation.



They'll get a few years out of that.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

Norway is a complete non-starter.

Four freedoms including Movement
Schengen
Hard border and few crossing points, not hundreds.
No passporting for UK services
Norway pays the EU the same as the UK per capita.
Customs union so EU rules except for oil , energy , fish and agriculture things which the UK doesn't export.

Spot any red lines ?


Norway plus plus is a completely different animal and was never on offer from the EU.

Water John

The UK never used the full set of rules available to them under the EU to limit immigration. TM should be constantly called out on this.

Capt'n Midnight

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

The current rules allow the UK to deport unemployed EU citizens with no means of support after six months or so.

New UK laws put the onus on employers to handle illegal workers.

Capt'n Midnight

Silent Running wrote: »

Well, the one that requires least work is a crash out no deal. It requires absolutely nothing to be done. Just wait out the clock.

The easiest option is retracting Article 50
It requires one vote and a letter.

Hard Brexit requires lots of laws being passed and doing trade deals with 70+ countries. And subsidies of 3 billion a year to farmers in a shrinking economy , if they keep that promise that is. And a whole host of other stuff to keep the lights on and planes in the air and food and medicine in the shops.


After the EU the US is the second biggest customer for UK car exports.
https://www.france24.com/en/20190118-eu-sets-out-plans-limited-us-trade-deal-0

The EU pressed on Friday with plans to forge a trade deal with the US, part of an effort -- backed by Germany -- to avert a trade war with President Donald Trump.

Negotiating a deal was the key to a transatlantic truce secured last year after the US slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU and others, alarming the world.

The effort is also part of a strategy to stop Trump from slapping damaging duties on car imports from Europe, a danger that has especially unnerved Berlin.

prawnsambo

Donald Trump wrote: »

I disagree

We already know that any post Brexit declined will be the explained away as evil EU punishing the British people for their cheek in wanting democracy or some such shite or for "winning WWII" or some such variation.

They'll get a few years out of that.

They won't get that long. When the promised trade deals fail to materialise, jobs start going, factories closing and inflation hits double digits, it will take some contortions to blame the EU. I'm sure they'll try, but those who told them that these would be the outcomes won't be quiet.

First Up

Bambi wrote:

There is no way to "force" a UI

I'd go further; I would want the unionist community to apply to join - and then think about it.

We have more than enough to be getting on with in redrawing our political, economic and trading systems to be bothered with humouring them.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

I'd go further; I would want the unionist community to apply to join - and then think about it.

We have more than enough to be getting on with in redrawing our political, economic and trading systems to be bothered with humouring them.

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

bilston

First Up wrote: »

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

The Our Wee Country slogan illustrates pride in Northern Ireland. It has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Republic of Ireland.

First Up

bilston wrote:

The Our Wee Country slogan illustrates pride in Northern Ireland. It has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Republic of Ireland.

Or the "united" Kingdom???

10000maniacs

First Up wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote:

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

First Up

10000maniacs wrote:

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

If only. I'd expect years of civil disobedience - or worse.

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Spot any red lines ?

I see several of Mays red lines, but she just got beaten in parliament by 230 votes. Her red lines are history.

Capt'n Midnight

mrbrianj wrote: »

You'd have to laugh at the 'German cars' line - do they realise that the UK sell just as many back into the EU?

A car parts plant in Wales closed recently. If more close then UK cars will have to use foreign parts and may no longer classify as "UK" and so face full WTO tariffs. Germany has 100 production sites in the UK.

BTW Rolls Royce only sold about 400 cars in the UK last year and are German owned. Like I posted earlier Greely are starting to make Lotus in China. Almost all of the "UK" car industry is foreign owned. Decisions are made abroad.

June 23, 2016
German auto industry warns Brexit could lead to production shift

October 17, 2016
German car industry warns UK that 'hard Brexit' could trigger shift south

“The UK is an important market for the German car industry, but the cohesion of the EU27 and with it the single market is more important for this industry,” he said.

10000maniacs

First Up wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote:

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

If only. I'd expect years of civil disobedience - or worse.

I wouldn't think so. Obviously they would have a sizable percentage in the Dail but that would be their only leverage. Physical confrontation is out because they wouldn't have the numbers.

First Up

10000maniacs wrote:

I wouldn't think so. Obviously they would have a sizable percentage in the Dail but that would be their only leverage. Physical confrontation is out because they wouldn't have the numbers.

The Ulster Workers Council experience suggests some might have a different take on that.

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

The Ulster Workers Council experience suggests some might have a different take on that.

That only worked because Unionists had all the key jobs and also had the help of the British Army. Those days are long gone.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1086229050224504833

Idiots unite!

Headshot

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1086229050224504833

Idiots unite!

what was the story in the times?

MBSnr

Headshot wrote: »

what was the story in the times?

Paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dup-hints-at-backing-for-soft-brexit-to-remove-backstop-threat-2dn7r7wg7

L1011

Headshot wrote: »

what was the story in the times?

Claims the DUP could support Norway+++ or whatever bloody stupid term is the current name from BRINO (itself not that far from being a bloody stupid term, of course)

Strazdas

MBSnr wrote: »

Paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dup-hints-at-backing-for-soft-brexit-to-remove-backstop-threat-2dn7r7wg7

Sounds plausible.....the DUP never had red lines on a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit, bar maybe Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr

Prince William

Has anyone else noticed that anytime some nonentity in the UK calls for a second Brexit referendum rte put the story at the top of the news stories on the website as if it were the pm calling for it? When are those clowns in the D4 bubble going to realize that the British don't do politics like us paddies ?

Bit cynical

Fairly unlikely that there will be a second referendum much as we might want one for the UK. It is up to them, not us, and the main leaders are not calling for one. I would say the most likely at this point is some sort of Norway deal and/or extend A50.

wiggle16

Bit cynical wrote: »

Fairly unlikely that there will be a second referendum much as we might want one for the UK. It is up to them, not us, and the main leaders are not calling for one. I would say the most likely at this point is some sort of Norway deal and/or extend A50.

At this point I think it's over. There's no reason to extend Article 50. The EU would only extend it if there were something new and viable to be put on the table (like a second referendum) and even then they've made it quite clear they won't extend it beyond the EU elections in May. There's not enough time for the UK to put anything together between now and then, either in terms of a different deal or a second referendum or launching the entire population into space.

I could be wrong, but I don't think anything is going to change between now and 29/03/2019. I think what we're seeing now is what it's going to look like then.

Oh well.

Frank Bullitt

Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week.

Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night.

A leisurely walk towards the apocalypse.