Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Adamcp898

There's a transitional period yet to come folks, although I don't believe it's a full 24 months.

Also, I thought the Republican-Unionist ****ehawking was meant to stop?

prawnsambo

Adamcp898 wrote: »

There's a transitional period yet to come folks, although I don't believe it's a full 24 months.

There's only a transitional period if there's a withdrawal agreement.

Water John

The real issues of today, Brexit rolls on, are Labour's slow shift of stance, the amendments being put down in the HOC by Grieve, Cooper and Labour.
Will an Extension to Art 50 be granted by the EU?

Example:Grieve explains how his amendment would work
This is how Dominic Grieve, the Tory pro-European, explained what his amendment to next week’s Brexit motion (see 10.58am) would achieve on Sky News.

'What my amendment does is to identify a number of Tuesdays between now and the date of Brexit in which the business will be controlled by the House itself and not by the government.

There will be a motion in neutral terms to start the day which is about looking at Brexit and what is going on, then members of parliament can table amendments for consideration which can be turned into resolutions of the House.

A resolution of the House is a pretty solemn thing. If the House says that it thinks something ought to be done which the government isn’t doing, the government can decide to ignore it but historically it would be very unusual in our constitution for that to happen'. Guardian Live.

I'm really not interested in any debate on side issues raised by downcow.

McMurphy

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

When you arrive in Britain, they mostly will be oblivious to religious or political allegiance of either side of someone from the North.

You will be looked upon as being Irish, regardless.

That's the reality.

Water John

You are now getting to crunch time. Some Govn't Ministers on the soft Brexit and Remain side are pushing hard for No Deal Brexit to be taken off the table. TM is listening more to ERG than the threat of a number of resignations from her Cabinet.

TM will be blocked from making it Her Deal or No Deal.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

GB is not a country anf there is no international border between NI and GB. I havent checked but i am pretty sure the two nations on the islands recognised by the UN are ROI and UK of GB & NI. and some of you are reading far to much into a name - the nation of the UK was formed by bringing together GB & NI and that is recognised in the name - I really like it that way and would hate to see that bit of history erased

The UN doesn't recognise RoI as a member, because they're a soccer team.

micosoft

downcow wrote: »

To be really honest. here is my thoughts - uncensored
There is history which I think no of us can avoid. Some may pretend they are above it but I think it infects us deep in our thinking. and i could be wrong but my guess is that thats not just a northern problem but across the island - so much difficult history and we are all products of it.
So i don't want to rejoin ireland any more that many of you want roi to rejoin the 'kingdom'. So i suppose that is me admitting it is not all economic for me.

That said, I believe that the UK and EU and indeed UK & ROI are interdependant and stronger working together. I believe we are leaving the EU but I also believe that all parties mention firmly understand we will be better of working together and being supportive of each other.
I understand the EU need to play hard ball so as no one else considers leaving
I understand ROI need to play hard ball and use the border issue to their advantage to keep economic connections with UK
I understand NI needs to keep good solid economic connections with ROI (and more eg friends, culture, etc)
I understand UK needs to play hard ball and not just roll over to EU & ROI

That said I believe common sense will prevail at or after the 11th hour. The backstop will be watered down (or fudged) and we will all move on and build improving relationships in the years ahead. I don'r expect either poverty or the jackpot for UK or EU for that matter. I do also think ROI are in the shakiest position but trust that EU & UK will play ball and make it work in the end.

Probably setting myself up for a hammering but sure so be it

I just see the same words used again and again. The EU is a Rules based membership organisation. It is not playing at anything. It is simply applying the rules that everybody agreed to. It cannot be otherwise. It is the only way to keep 29/8 members aligned and in agreement - the alternative is chaos. It really surprises me that the English right and indeed Unionists are the ones pushing for a EU that does not work on rules because when the rules are on their their side they are absolute sticklers for it. We've listened to that view point for decades from the Unionist community in particular - that the rule of law is paramount. So imagine our surprise when we see a very different attitude emerging when the discovery is that the rules apply equally to the UK as they do others.

You can keep banging your head against the rules of the EU as long as you want but it won't work. And using dismissive terms like "playing" is a deliberate misunderstanding of the EU position as has been clearly articulated (outside certain parts of the English Press). The EU is applying the logic of the rules impartially and calmly.

On history you are right. It plays a part in all of our heads. Down south here we remember all of the bilateral "negotiations" we had with the UK - the treaty, the boundary commission and the economic war among many one-sided, unfair and frankly bullying behavior by the UK of a small country. We now see the solemn commitments of the Good Friday agreement (under which the Republic gave up it's claim on NI - a huge move) being cast aside. Forgive us if we cannot and will not trust negotiating with the British government. One of the global repercussions which is not yet appreciated in the UK is how much the UK's word has been devalued in the course of Brexit. That will come up in every treaty the UK attempts to sign by the way.

History has taught us in order to be independent we need to ally ourselves and in the EU we have found those allies. We are not some ball being bounced between the EU and the UK. We ARE the EU. OUR position is prioritized. Decades of influencing with our peers in the EU has seen the remarkable sight of 26 sovereign countries putting the needs of Ireland ahead of their own. Remarkable. It would be good for you to appreciate that as pretending that little Ireland is being used here let's you disengage with the reality that the DUP has managed to do more damage to the Unionist cause in a year than 40 years of IRA violence.

A Dub in Glasgo

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

I am in Britain 25 years and not once have I heard anyone refer to someone from NI as British or Northern Irish... they are simply Irish. You may not have an Irish passport but the people of Britain will call you Irish

Lemming

downcow wrote: »

5) i believe most people, brexiteers included, would accept some sensible additional checks at the Irish Sea - but we need to see some compromise of sharing some checking maybe at NI border and even some at ROI France border. Current ROI position reeks of arrogace and is winding people up

So, what you want is for Ireland to remove itself from the single market to suit the UK,to the absolute and total detriment of Ireland with the Irish people not consulted on the matter either. Oh, there's a position reeking of arrogance alright and it's not coming from Ireland.

downcow wrote: »

GB is not a country anf there is no international border between NI and GB.

But there is a border when it suits; phsytiosanitary checks are carried out at the NI border on livestock. To quote Paisley snr. "our cows are Irish" in reference to the BSE crisis. If you are from an agricultural background then you should be aware of this fact already, and its infamous history.

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

Speaking as someone living in Yorkshire for the better part of a decade now, whenever you [downcow] travel to the mainland UK, specifically England; you wont be viewed as British. Just Irish. You're as much a paddy as I am to them. I find that fact hysterical in just how tragic and sad it is; it's such a one-sided relationship for northern unionists.

A Dub in Glasgo

I think this whole Brexit farce from the UK has demonstrated, in a very clear manner, that the UK is not a union at all and certainly not united. The bigger constituent country will always ride over the wishes of the other constituent countries if they feel that their own wishes will not hold sway. The views of the people of Scotland and NI have been blithely ignored and will continue to do so.

Hurrache

The internet is losing its **** over the fact that the EU commission has finally publicly said that in the event of a no deal there will be a hard border.

What's scary is that people are only realising this now. Just wait for the avalanche of people and sectors of the media attacking the Irish government, specifically Varadkar, over this.

Adamcp898

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's only a transitional period if there's a withdrawal agreement.

I thought that would be self explanatory at this stage.



Perhaps a better question to ask would be why would a person from Northern Ireland "feel" more British than Irish. But in another thread.

Rather than everyone queuing up to make the same point Re: "This is what nationality people on the Island of Great Britain think you are." Not least while simultaneously lamenting how little people from Great Britain know about that aforementioned part of the United Kingdom.

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

The internet is losing its **** over the fact that the EU commission has finally publicly said that in the event of a no deal there will be a hard border.

What's scary is that people are only realising this now. Just wait for the avalanche of people and sectors of the media attacking the Irish government, specifically Varadkar, over this.

It's definitely a weird one... I don't see how anyone looking logically at the border in the event of hard Brexit couldn't see that it would be necessary.

Hurrache

As the commission said themselves, it's not a change of their position, just a statement of the obvious!

robinph

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am in Britain 25 years and not once have I heard anyone refer to someone from NI as British or Northern Irish... they are simply Irish. You may not have an Irish passport but the people of Britain will call you Irish

It's probably a self selecting group of similarly minded people that you are mixing with then, and possibly also a slightly more knowledgeable bunch regarding "these islands" than other parts of the UK due to the obvious differences regarding football teams and who supports which one.

The rest of the UK are mostly ignorant/ don't care/ confused by the whole thing, but there are plenty of people from NI in my circles that would be identifying as all variations of NI/ British/ Irish and multiple of at the same time in no particular order.

prawnsambo

Adamcp898 wrote: »

I thought that would be self explanatory at this stage.



Perhaps a better question to ask would be why would a person from Northern Ireland "feel" more British than Irish. But in another thread.

Rather than everyone queuing up to make the same point Re: "This is what nationality people on the Island of Great Britain think you are." Not least while simultaneously lamenting how little people from Great Britain know about that aforementioned part of the United Kingdom.

Apologies.


Although I'm coming to realise that it's something that can't be taken for granted as being understood at all levels. Was it Andrea Leadsom who said that there would be a transition period with a no-deal exit?

Tell me how

Adamcp898 wrote: »

There's a transitional period yet to come folks, although I don't believe it's a full 24 months.

Also, I thought the Republican-Unionist ****ehawking was meant to stop?

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's only a transitional period if there's a withdrawal agreement.

It's frustrating to read some people believing this on an anonymous internet forum, albeit one discussing politics.

But, can you imagine how frustrating it is for people in the UK who know the full story to hear someone like Esther McVey proclaiming this (and doing so by linking a document which pointed out she was wrong).

Really shocking inadequacy in an elected official.

J Mysterio

CelticRambler wrote: »

Your country voted to Remain, by a significant majority. Unfortunately for you (and Scotland), the more populous and europhobic England voted to Leave and is dragging the rest of you with it.

And therein lies the answer to your "how is it OK..." question: the Irish Sea border does not put a line through the middle of any country, and that's why it's the best solution to a bad situation. Despite the oft-repeated slogan, NI is not British. It's one country in a political union of four countries and has the unique status in that union of being singled out in the title to emphasise how it is not part of Great Britain. Northern Ireland is not a region like the Lake District or Devon and Cornwall, it is a country in its own right, with its own parliament (.... :rolleyes:).

So your abortion analogy now becomes: "how can Ireland refuse to allow abortion when the other 27EU states permit it?" Easy - as it did until the situation was changed in the recent referendum.

Alternatively, you could ask: "how can one of the constituent countries of the UK not allow abortion or gay marriage when the other three do?" Answering that question opens up the possibility of applying different rules to the people and businesses of Northern Ireland in the Brexit negotiations, which - funnily enough - leads to the win-win of respecting the will of the people in NI and the maintaining the benefits of the GFA.

Wish someone could make this last point in HOC and have that sink in just a little bit.

Adamcp898

prawnsambo wrote: »

Apologies.


Although I'm coming to realise that it's something that can't be taken for granted as being understood at all levels. Was it Andrea Leadsom who said that there would be a transition period with a no-deal exit?

Not at all.

To understand the vagaries of Brexit one must first consider the great philosophical questions such as: "What makes a vote meaningful?"

Then it all becomes clear. Or so I'm promised.

ironingbored

https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1087360379691380736

Not sure it's been posted already but excellent thread.

FreudianSlippers

I can't listen to all these MPs saying that they need to pass a bill to ensure that there is not a no-deal Brexit, when the only way to avoid this is to agree a deal. What a monumental waste of time to table these motions and debate them!

Labour is looking for MPs to vote freely on all options, including customs union and another referendum... but their bills are so non-committal that it just results in more debate in HoC over these questions. It's clear they haven't a notion what they're doing... I'm starting to wonder if we should extend for a month or two to allow them to have a GE.

House4596

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I can't listen to all these MPs saying that they need to pass a bill to ensure that there is not a no-deal Brexit, when the only way to avoid this is to agree a deal. What a monumental waste of time to table these motions and debate them!

Labour is looking for MPs to vote freely on all options, including customs union and another referendum... but their bills are so non-committal that it just results in more debate in HoC over these questions. It's clear they haven't a notion what they're doing... I'm starting to wonder if we should extend for a month or two to allow them to have a GE.

Same I agree with you on this one

Tell me how

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I can't listen to all these MPs saying that they need to pass a bill to ensure that there is not a no-deal Brexit, when the only way to avoid this is to agree a deal. What a monumental waste of time to table these motions and debate them!

Labour is looking for MPs to vote freely on all options, including customs union and another referendum... but their bills are so non-committal that it just results in more debate in HoC over these questions. It's clear they haven't a notion what they're doing... I'm starting to wonder if we should extend for a month or two to allow them to have a GE.

If they have a GE, they will effectively look to restart the process by blaming May for everything that has happened up to now.

They will revoke Article 50 and implement it once again which is something I don't think the EU can prevent (am I incorrect here??) even though it will pi** them off to the nth degree.

Can the EU can refuse to accept the revocation of A50 and tell them ye are going on the 29th of March with no deal?

ironingbored

Tell me how wrote: »

If they have a GE, they will effectively look to restart the process by blaming May for everything that has happened up to now.

They will revoke Article 50 and implement it once again which is something I don't think the EU can prevent (am I incorrect here??) even though it will pi** them off to the nth degree.

Can the EU can refuse to accept the revocation of A50 and tell them ye are going on the 29th of March with no deal?

ECJ opinion said that UK could unilaterally revoke art. 50

demfad

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I can't listen to all these MPs saying that they need to pass a bill to ensure that there is not a no-deal Brexit, when the only way to avoid this is to agree a deal. What a monumental waste of time to table these motions and debate them!

If you can pass a Bill which seeks to extend A50 should no agreement occur then you can pass a bill seeking to revoke A50 should no agreement occur.

Two ways to avoid no-deal: Deal or revoke.

Tell me how

ironingbored wrote: »

ECJ opinion said that UK could unilaterally revoke art. 50

That's true. Forgot their ruling from December.

So, should Corbyn get in, revoke it, implement it a day later, is the clock set on 2 more years?

MrMusician18

Commission has finally come out and started the obvious openly, no deal means a hard border.

Although I understand the Irish government strategy on this aided and abetted by the media not pushing this question - some clarity on no deal might sharpen some DUP focus on the real issues.

FreudianSlippers

Tell me how wrote: »

If they have a GE, they will effectively look to restart the process by blaming May for everything that has happened up to now.

Up until today, I was definitely of the opinion that we should only extend for a referendum. Problem is that such a hard line will almost certainly result in no-deal Brexit at this stage.

I don't see the UK has much choice other than GE if they won't hold a second referendum; however, I certainly wouldn't agree to further extension... a new government would need to be told that this is the deal.

They will revoke Article 50 and implement it once again which is something I don't think the EU can prevent (am I incorrect here??) even though it will pi** them off to the nth degree.

Can the EU can refuse to accept the revocation of A50 and tell them ye are going on the 29th of March with no deal?

Technically they can, but I think this would seriously backfire on the UK.

Akrasia

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I can't listen to all these MPs saying that they need to pass a bill to ensure that there is not a no-deal Brexit, when the only way to avoid this is to agree a deal. What a monumental waste of time to table these motions and debate them!

Labour is looking for MPs to vote freely on all options, including customs union and another referendum... but their bills are so non-committal that it just results in more debate in HoC over these questions. It's clear they haven't a notion what they're doing... I'm starting to wonder if we should extend for a month or two to allow them to have a GE.

The only way to avoid this is not to 'agree a deal' if the reason they haven't agreed a deal yet is that the only deal that is on offer is not supported by anyone
The best way to avoid a crash out scenario, is to turn the default from crashing out of the EU, to remaining in the EU.

This can be done by a Private members bill that says 'If there is no withdrawal agreement passed by 28th of March 2019, A50 will be automatically withdrawn on 29th of March"

And in order to be acceptable to the EU, this would need to be withdrawn in good faith, so it can't be simply re-submitted on a whim a few weeks later, A50 and can only be re-submitted following another vote by parliament, or preferably, via another referendum.

The brexiteers can whinge all they like, but they've had 3 years to figure out how to leave the EU without destroying the economy and they haven't got within an asses roar of negotiating a satisfactory deal with the EU, so they should 'walk away' from the negotiations by cancelling brexit.

FreudianSlippers

demfad wrote: »

If you can pass a Bill which seeks to extend A50 should no agreement occur then you can pass a bill seeking to revoke A50 should no agreement occur.

Two ways to avoid no-deal: Deal or revoke.

The former doesn't stop a no-deal as it is reliant on acceptance from the EU, which we should not give without good reason. The latter is very unlikely to be passed in HoC in my opinion.