Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Professor Moriarty

From The Guardian re Kawczynski's call for a veto:

A Polish govt source shoots this down immediately saying Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement is the worst possible scenario for Brexit. Adds Poland would evaluate any A50 motion if/when it comes from the UK govt, but would need to have a clear plan of what's next.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From The Guardian re Kawczynski's call for a veto:

A Polish govt source shoots this down immediately saying Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement is the worst possible scenario for Brexit. Adds Poland would evaluate any A50 motion if/when it comes from the UK govt, but would need to have a clear plan of what's next.

It is going to be interesting if the UK parliament votes to extend article 50 and Poland does veto it. I believe the word treason covers what Kawczynski is doing, by lobbying a foreign government to subvert the decision of parliament.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

It is going to be interesting if the UK parliament votes to extend article 50 and Poland does veto it. I believe the word treason covers what Kawczynski is doing, by lobbying a foreign government to subvert the decision of parliament.

Interestingly, he was born in Poland and came to the UK when he was seven. So maybe it's not treason...

Larbre34

James Dyson is moving the Dyson Corporation Head Office and its tax residency to Singapore. The company is quoted as saying its "nothing to do with Brexit"

The absolute shtate of that hypocritical, morally bankrupt, self-serving, hungry weasel piece of shyte.

J Mysterio

Borderhopper wrote: »

Apologies mod.

Not something available on news for obvious reasons. But I've both spoken to staff concerned and seen the emails regarding both issues.

It's not hearsay, but people value their jobs whilst being concerned at the pressure put on them to enforce a hard border.

Another thing to note. Do not underestimate the potential for violence. Nationalists were told a united ireland wasn't a necessity because of FOM. The potential loss of this has angered and scared people, especially with the quite frankly unseemly crowing from the DUP about a lost vote. 1968/9 may be acknowledged as the start of the troubles, but pressure built up over years. There are a lot of young people (adults who weren't even. One in 1998!) who have a romantic notion of the troubles. As history shows, it doesn't take everyone to tip things into violence. Just enough will do it.

Its already started. The Derry car bomb and subsequent events are a message

Akrasia

Borderhopper wrote: »

Northern Ireland Civil Service staff have been asked to "volunteer" to man fuel depots in the event of fuel shortages

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

listermint

Larbre34 wrote: »

James Dyson is moving the Dyson Corporation Head Office and its tax residency to Singapore. The company is quoted as saying its "nothing to do with Brexit"

The absolute shtate of that hypocritical, morally bankrupt, self-serving, hungry weasel piece of shyte.

And it always seems to be the most prominent brexiteers that do this.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/22/dyson-to-move-company-hq-to-singapore?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Enzokk

Larbre34 wrote: »

James Dyson is moving the Dyson Corporation Head Office and its tax residency to Singapore. The company is quoted as saying its "nothing to do with Brexit"

The absolute shtate of that hypocritical, morally bankrupt, self-serving, hungry weasel piece of shyte.

Here is a link to the move by Dyson,

Dyson to move company HQ to Singapore

Sir James Dyson, the British billionaire inventor and outspoken Brexiter, is moving the headquarters of his vacuum cleaner and hair dryer technology company to Singapore.

The company’s chief executive, Jim Rowan, said the move from Wiltshire to Singapore had “nothing to do with Brexit” but was about “future-proofing” the business. The move of Dyson’s legal entity from the UK to Singapore “will happen over the coming months”, meaning it could happen before Brexit.

Luckily for Dyson Singapore has just recently agree a FTA with the EU so he gets to pay lower taxes and gets access to the EU market as well while campaigning for the UK to leave the EU. Aptly described as a hypocrite.

Edit: Snap, listermint beat me to the link.

Akrasia

Russman wrote: »

I think it might have been mentioned earlier (waaay earlier !!) in this thread by someone, but if its a no-deal crash out and we need to put up a border, would it be feasible for our planning process, tender & design processes and overall bureaucracy to be slow enough that by the time we got to actually build and open border posts, the UK would be on its knees and looking for a deal ? First item on the agenda obviously would be the border issue.

What will happen on the 30th of March? The UK mainland ports will grind to a halt and there will be tens of thousands of trucks trying to get to the UK from the Continent.

The NI border would probably have to have border checks imposed almost straight away given a total crash out scenario because there will be such chaos at Dover that the 'canny' UK haulage firms will quickly start trying to using Ireland as a back door to the UK, which would in turn, jam up Irish ports and roads and ferry services forcing us to erect customs checks at the border to close off that route.

The Irish army have already been surveying the smaller local border crossings and they almost certainly have a plan to close them off if they need to be (a digger and some boulders would do for a start)

Enzokk

We had the discussion yesterday on the motions in the House of Commons and what is being done to try and steer Brexit by MPs when it is clear government has no idea what it wants or how to get it passed.

Luckily Ian Dunt has a story on exactly where we stand and what is going to happen in the next few weeks. It is confusing and you may think that reading about parliamentary procedure is the worst thing you can do but this article is really interesting on the approach from two MPs who we have praised on their work with Brexit.

The final parliamentary Brexit battle is coming: This is what it looks like

This morning we finally got a clear look at the battlefield. MPs have marched for two and a half years, climbed the hill of defeating Theresa May's deal, and finally they can see it there in front of them.

The amendments that have been put down on the prime minister's Brexit statement reveal how MPs are going to try and wrestle control from the government. They have two aims. The first is to prevent no-deal. The second is to provide a forum, outside of No.10's interference, in which they can figure out what the hell to do next.

Before the armies could make their way down to the battlefield, however, the government was up to a bit of slippery business. It's a weird move that makes no sense to anyone. May made no mention of it in the Commons yesterday - not in her statement or during hours of questioning from MPs. But then, later on, the written statement was published. And that had a caveat in it.

I will try to summarize but I fear it will not be 100% accurate so I think if you have time you must read the article. Basically both Cooper and Grieve has put forth motions that exclude government from being able to stop MPs from discussing and voting for bills on specific dates. This will give parliament full control on those days without government intervention to try and either get a deal outlined or even revoke article 50 if need be. The last day for this where they have a day set aside is the 26th March so if no-deal looks likely I think that on that day you will see the push to avoid no-deal from the adults in the room.

He also mentions that the government may have some plan up their sleeves but at the moment no-one can figure it out yet. As said before, politicians are busy playing chess.

Larbre34

They need a new word for Dyson's level of hypocrisy.

If I was a voting Brit and my kids future had been gambled like that, I'd be very tempted to go take a tour group to the Cotswolds and make their current head office go away.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

Support for the DUP has dropped from 36% in the last GE to 30% in a poll last November. I can only imagine which direction it has gone since then considering the anti-Brexit vote is increasing in NI.

trellheim

I want to point out perhaps a confusion

Article 50 Revocation : i.e. cancel Brexit - ECJ has ruled UK may do this on their own.

Article 50 Extension : i.e delay brexit : Requires someone to ask, and all 28 members to be unanimous

Leroy42

Akrasia wrote: »

What will happen on the 30th of March? The UK mainland ports will grind to a halt and there will be tens of thousands of trucks trying to get to the UK from the Continent.

The border would have to close almost straight away given a total crash out scenario because there will be such chaos at Dover that the 'canny' UK haulage firms will quickly start trying to using Ireland as a back door to the UK, which would in turn, jam up Irish ports and roads and ferry services forcing us to erect customs checks at the border to close off that route.

I think many firms, where they can, will try to get everything in/out prior to that. Sort of like planning for the Christmas break.

So things will probably be fairly quite in the days after Brexit, IMO. The sky won't suddenly fall in that night.

And you will have the likes of JRM and IDS out on the newsshows claiming that they were right all along, nothing has changed, everything will be fine.

Then over the following days/weeks as stocks start to run down things will start to get a bit messier.

J Mysterio

I know this is already old news given Brexit (yesterday) but worth sharing nonetheless.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1087484714569461760

What a mess. Its amazing how few sensible voices one can hear. It's about a dozen mps all told? Pure shìte from the great majority.

So... A few decent and sensible MPs have to know cajole all the various groupings in Parliament - with their magical thinking - into securing a deal.. in 60 something days. Using their own resources one supposes. No problem there.

A Dub in Glasgo

robinph wrote: »

It's probably a self selecting group of similarly minded people that you are mixing with then, and possibly also a slightly more knowledgeable bunch regarding "these islands" than other parts of the UK due to the obvious differences regarding football teams and who supports which one.

The rest of the UK are mostly ignorant/ don't care/ confused by the whole thing, but there are plenty of people from NI in my circles that would be identifying as all variations of NI/ British/ Irish and multiple of at the same time in no particular order.

I am referring to folk from Britain referring to people from NI as Irish - I have worked all over Britain in those 25 years so goes beyond by social circle. I have heard people from NI describe themselves as Northern Irish

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1087746378590232577

Nothing to do with the trade deal that the EU have with Singapore at all I am sure.

James Dyson is a pig of a man, this proves it.

Enzokk

And then just one more link for now, for some project fear that people can digest.

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1087666286648283136

That is a list of 180 sourced cases where jobs and investment has moved from the UK so far.

demfad

Grieve amendment is in:

https://infacts.org/grieve-comes-up-with-killer-take-back-control-amendment/?mc_cid=7d10cce5b3&mc_eid=79544c4ee2

The following Tuesdays – February 12 and 26, as well as March 5, 12, 19 and 26 – are being lined up for Brexit debates by Dominic Grieve, the Tory former attorney general. This amendment, which has been coordinated with Cooper, is even more important (see amendment f) on item 112).

The idea is that each Tuesday the government will lose the right to determine what is discussed. There will instead be up to six and a half hours of debate, during which MPs will be able to propose any amendments. At the end of the day, the Speaker will choose which amendments to vote on.

That means 6 seperate days where discussion is uninterrupted on Brexit by Parliament with amendments allowed: Bercow decides order.

If this passes, should be the end of no-deal.


And here it is (item 112)

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190122.pdf

At end, add “and orders that on 12 and 26 February and 5, 12, 19 and 26 March
2019—
(a) Standing Order No. 14(1) which provides that government business shall
have precedence at every sitting save as provided in that order) shall not apply;
(b) a Motion in the name of the Chairman of Ways and Means “That this House
has considered the United Kingdom’s departure from, and future relationship
with, the European Union” shall stand as the first item of business;
(c) Standing Order No. 24B (Amendments to motions to consider specified
matters) shall not apply to such motions;
(d) Proceedings on the motion may continue for up to six and a half hours
after its commencement, though opposed, and shall not be interrupted at the
moment of interruption; and Standing Order No. 41A (Deferred divisions) will
not apply; and
52 Tuesday 22 January 2019 OP No.236: Part 2 B. Remaining Orders and Notices
(e) at the conclusion of those proceedings, the Speaker shall put the questions
necessary to dispose of proceedings on the motion, which shall include the
questions on any amendments selected by the Speaker, which may then be
moved

CelticRambler

Quin_Dub wrote: »

##Mod Note##

Borderhopper - You're going to have to make some reference to a news report or something around these updates..

(potentially) Random hearsay is not really up to standard for this forum..

Thanks

SkyNews (20 minutes ago) have shown a leaked document from the Border Force saying that they are (have been) making arrangements to remove staff from their habitual roles to "mitigate a degradation in border security"

The same document also indicates that the customs Blue Channel will be removed, and Brits returning from Europe will be funnelled into the Red Channel to check and declare their overseas purchases. That seems to suggest a working assumption that there will be no reason for anyone to go through a Green Channel ... because WTO rules apply to everything? :eek:

Captain Obvious

Any deal that doesn't maintain the status quo after the deadline date will be effectively useless as there will be no time to implement it.

trellheim

Brexit betting heating up. Paddy power offering 5/2 on No deal or (1/4 on a deal or A50 extension ) ]
]


Some mad odds on Food rationing

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

Some mad odds on Food rationing

Passenger ferry trips are being cancelled because of it. Following on from P&O moving their fleet to a Cypriot flag, this was announced
https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1087756976891875328

However Brittany Ferries have since denied this
https://brittanyferriesnewsroom.com/brittany-ferries-moves-to-reassure-passengers/
https://www.brittany-ferries.co.uk/information/brexit-ferry-initiative

This is an initiative from the Department of Transport to help ensure critical goods are still able to be transported safely and swiftly in the event of a no-deal Brexit. We were approached by the Department for Transport as a trusted and reliable ferry operator to see if we could assist with this initiative and have since agreed to play our part.

The contract guarantees space on some of our ships and Channel routes for the delivery of critical goods post-Brexit, like medicines. It has been described as a kind of insurance, or safety net, to help ensure the smooth transit of these critical goods in the event of a no-deal Brexit after the 29th March.

Leroy42

Larbre34 wrote: »

James Dyson is moving the Dyson Corporation Head Office and its tax residency to Singapore. The company is quoted as saying its "nothing to do with Brexit"

This following the recent announcement that they would be building their electric cars in Singapore. Really tells you everything you need to know about Brexit.

These were the type of new industry companies that would come flocking to the UK post Brexit we were told. A UK owned company, very successful, selling the type of brand the world wants.

The lose the CT tax, the income tax on the executive team. They say job number won't be effect in the HQ move, but they are hardly going to run two HQ's.

Of course I assume the likes of IDS will be out shortly to tell us that Dyson has no clue and simply needs to have more belief.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

Passenger ferry trips are being cancelled because of it. Following on from P&O moving their fleet to a Cypriot flag, this was announced
https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1087756976891875328

And this is why I don't think there will be madness on the days shortly after Brexit. Contingencies such as this is avoid the sharpest problems. But what happens after that. Are Ferries no longer a thing for passengers? What about those going to drive holiday in France. They now have to hire a car?

It is simply incredible that this is even being allowed to be discussed. TM saying today that she doesn't believe that medicine shortages will occur as they are busy working on avoiding it. Even the fact they are working to avoid it, during peacetime in the most affluent part of the world is simply astonishing.

Amprodude

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

Captain Obvious

Amprodude wrote: »

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

Irish government won't have a choice. I would have thought everyone understood this was inevitable with no deal.

Havockk

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Irish government won't have a choice. I would have thought everyone understood this was inevitable with no deal.

Yea, as a northerner I have always imagined that a hard(er) border was always a possibility with this mess.

Nody

Amprodude wrote: »

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

The Irish government has know this would always be the case if there is no deal and they will implement it accordingly and it has been a well known fact since day 1 for people who bothered to check the basic understanding of how EU operates. There's a reason why Ireland pushed so hard for the backstop to be in the requirements because if not it would be a hard border by default in the agreement.

joe40

Nody wrote: »

Amprodude wrote: »

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

The Irish government has know this would always be the case if there is no deal and they will implement it accordingly and it has been a well known fact since day 1 for people who bothered to check the basic understanding of how EU operates. There's a reason why Ireland pushed so hard for the backstop to be in the requirements because if not it would be a hard border by default in the agreement.

Exactly, and there will also be checks of some sort on the British side. How could brexit mean taking back control and then leaving an open 300 mile border withe the "Eu". It is not just a border with Ireland.
The Brexiteers such as farage were not called out on this enough even by the Irish media. They got away with saying cta has been in place since the twenties so no issue here.
I even find it hard to believe there will be a totally open border even in the event of a deal/soft brexit.