Brexit Discussion Thread VI

FrancieBrady

EdgeCase wrote: »

Britain has a fairly long history of going into crisis though when you look at the 1970s and 80s period for example. There were endless and very long strikes that would make the French ones seem relatively non-disruptive.

There was a period of remarkable calm from the 90s until Brexit.

I'd agree with that. If the second referendum taps into the undercurrent of disenfranchisement then UK society could see prolonged civil unrest. They were able to quell the riots a few years ago. Might not be able to this time.

10000maniacs

cml387 wrote: »

I notice from Downcow's posts that he may be an Ulster protestant farmer.

I would genuinely welcome his input if he/she could contribute his point of view.

Everybodys voice should be heard. Not sure this philosophy will sort Brexit out but we hear far too little from Ulster farmers in this debate.

10000maniacs

cml387 wrote: »

I notice from Downcow's posts that he may be an Ulster protestant farmer.

I would genuinely welcome his input if he/she could contribute his point of view.

Everybodys voice should be heard. Not sure this philosophy will sort Brexit out but we hear far too little from Ulster farmers in this debate.

intellectual dosser

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

After a 52-48 Remain vote they would still have a divide (no change there), but they would still have a functioning economy, too.


The divide in UK politics is not about to destroy their economy - Brexit is.

I think if May's deal was passed the economy was be relatively unscathed, but the divide won't allow it to be passed.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Acting on a 52-48 remain result in a second referendum will spark off serious unrest in the UK imo.

It would tear itself apart violently.

Who is going to be violent though? Is your 60 year old that voted to leave going to rip up the high street? Let's be real here, the only real concern would be the far right rising in the UK and making trouble and they will be in a minority. Those that follow Tommy Robinson are the ones you need to be concerned about. On Remainiacs they were saying that you are also more likely to have the youth revolt against the older voters who has decided to deprive them of the benefits they have enjoyed all of their lives.

In any case does anyone here think that the likes of Farage or JRM will be quiet if the vote is 66% to 33% to remain? Has those who oppose abortion kept quiet in Ireland after the referendum?

Godot.

I have a habit of missing the obvious, so could someone tell me why there is little to no mention of a Northern Ireland only referendum on the backstop?

It puts everything to bed as far as I can see. May can point out it's the will of the people. Opinion polls show that an overwhelming majority want the backstop, it would probably go through comfortably.

prawnsambo

Godot. wrote: »

I have a habit of missing the obvious, so could someone tell me why there is little to no mention of a Northern Ireland only referendum on the backstop?

It puts everything to bed as far as I can see. May can point out it's the will of the people. Opinion polls show that an overwhelming majority want the backstop, it would probably go through comfortably.

For the same reason that the majority in NI voting to remain is ignored. It would be against the democratic vote of the entire UK which voted to leave. And the same goes for Scotland. NI is an inconvenience that's best ignored, hence it's referred to as the 'Irish' border and not the UK border or the NI border.

An Ciarraioch

Godot. wrote: »

I have a habit of missing the obvious, so could someone tell me why there is little to no mention of a Northern Ireland only referendum on the backstop?

It puts everything to bed as far as I can see. May can point out it's the will of the people. Opinion polls show that an overwhelming majority want the backstop, it would probably go through comfortably.

There is the danger that London could revert to an NI-only backstop in that scenario, meaning RoI-GB trade barriers.

Leroy42

If they give such a vote to NI, Scotland will be demanding a vote.

LuckyLloyd

Peregrinus wrote: »

Up to now, China has not that interested in free trade agreements; they don't play a big part in Chinese trade policy. It currently has a network of, I think, 14 FTAs, the bulk of them with near neighbours in the Asia/Pacific region. But recently they have taken a slightly greater interest in FTAs, in reaction to Trump's loss of interest in them; as the US becomes more isolationist, China spots an opportunity to step into its shoes, to some extent, and it thinks FTAs may have a role to play here.

What China is really interested in is investment agreements, of which it has a huge network - more than a hundred (inc. one with the UK). China's enormous trade surplus with the rest of the world means that it has vast amounts of foreign currency, with which it seeks to acquire assets abroad. So it enters into investment agreements which define and (it hopes) expand its rights to buy and own businesses, infrastructure, resources, etc. in other countries. Even the trade agreements which it negotiates have a chapter on freedom of investment.

That's the context within which the UK will be seeking to negotiate a trade deal with China. I've yet to hear any Brexiter enthusiast for an independent UK trade policy, and the negotiation of lots of trade deals, discuss this in any deatil. Or, indeed, at all.

Great post as always. I think it's safe to say that when the reality of huge amounts of Chinese investment / ownership within the UK; or significant expansion of visa programs for Indian nationals as the prices to pay for these wonderful FTAs hit home, Brexit will lose a big chunk of its base in one fell swoop.

robinph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Acting on a 52-48 remain result in a second referendum will spark off serious unrest in the UK imo.

It would tear itself apart violently.

That would be not acting though, it would merely be ripping up the article 50 notice and go back to normal hoping that everyone forgets the last couple of years.

Leroy42

The UK government has stated today that a further £2bn will be set aside for no deal preparedness. This is top of the £4.2bn (according to Hammond) that has already been set aside.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

That would be not acting though, it would merely be ripping up the article 50 notice and go back to normal hoping that everyone forgets the last couple of years.

That reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Bart was going through the terrible twos. They all laughed about it at first, but as it got wore and worse, the laughter stopped until eventually they held a thrid birthday party for him. Even though he was still two.


They can do the same with Brexit. It's pretty much the same kind of irrational temper tantrum.

Professor Moriarty

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Great post as always. I think it's safe to say that when the reality of huge amounts of Chinese investment / ownership within the UK; or significant expansion of visa programs for Indian nationals as the prices to pay for these wonderful FTAs hit home, Brexit will lose a big chunk of its base in one fell swoop.

Nah. More lies from Project Fear.

Terence Rattigan

Leroy42 wrote: »

The UK government has stated today that a further £2bn will be set aside for no deal preparedness. This is top of the £4.2bn (according to Hammond) that has already been set aside.

It always prompts a wry smile when i see any government announcing that money has been "set aside", as if its been sitting on a shelf somewhere gathering dust,this is money that wont be going to the NHS, homelessness, job creation etc etc

20silkcut

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's also a possibility that you get a divisive campaign and a massive PR push from the leave side and they end up reaffirming the leave vote.

There isn't really a huge change in the polling since 2016.

There is a steady change in opinion in people thinking brexit not to be a good idea. But that is no guarantee that they would vote against brexit. There is a huge undecided cohort.
Probably because of the lack of leadership on the remain side. Which is incredible and much of it the fault of Labour.

Professor Moriarty

It's kind of sad and pathetic at this stage.


PM May's spokesperson today: "The UK and the EU will continue talking this week at all levels."

EU Commission's spokesperson today: "No further meetings between the EU and the UK to discuss the Brexit deal are expected."

EdgeCase

I think we're heading into one of those scenarios like in the bad days of Northern Ireland where political entrenchment and dogma will cause a disastrous outcome.

They seem to be as unrealistic as ever.

J Mysterio

Just heard this on Moncrieff. This bus has been touring the UK, in NI today:

https://www.bollockstobrexit.com/the-bus-tour/

Dyr

J Mysterio wrote: »

Just heard this on Moncrieff. This bus has been touring the UK, in NI today:

https://www.bollockstobrexit.com/the-bus-tour/

it was on the Northside this morning, did they mix that up with the north?

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's kind of sad and pathetic at this stage.

I was thinking that this morning, listening to Michael Fabricant being interviewed on Sky. According to him, the EU will offer the UK a deal at the last minute "because they always do"; Brexit will be a success because the UK is the biggest export market for German cars and French agricultural products; Britain will be "free" and go on to sign great trade deals with the US and others; and he knows all this to be true because he fitted out radio stations across Europe in the 80s ...

I wonder if those radio stations came with stuck record players as standard?

And then you have TM & others saying that holding a second referendum, or a people's vote, or revoking A50, or anything other than ploughing on with her unpassable BRINO deal that she won't put to a vote (yet) would make a mockery of British politics.

Sorry, Theresa: we're well past that point. :rolleyes:

boggerman1

God things have ratcheted up.looking at sky news just now a leaver and a remainer debating.the Tory guy a prat but the background noise is like a football match.brexiteer supporters roaring all sorts.its getting ugly now.dunphy was right yrs ago when he called out a certain class of people as completely uneducated. Even skys political correspondent fisial can't think of his second name getting shouted "your not British anymore".

Shelga

Will May ever be honest and tell the people that Brexit is going to hurt them. Or at least stop pretending that it’s pain-free. The level of lies and deceit by the Tories is really above anything I’d ever imagined.

Saw a comment earlier- when people threaten disillusionment with a second referendum, call their bluff. Brexit voters are going to be pissed off and disillusioned no matter what happens now- they may as well be that way in a functioning economy rather than a totally destroyed one.

Granted, this presumes that Remain wins a second referendum- far from a foregone conclusion.

First Up

Shelga wrote:

Granted, this presumed that Remain wins a second referendum- far from a foregone conclusion.

Forget about another vote. It would need complete upheaval in Westminster, including May's departure, a general election and a new political party configuration. All of that happening isn't remotely likely between now and March.

Let them leave and experience the consequences while the rest of us get on with living in the real world. They can decide what to do about it for themselves in their own time.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bambi wrote: »

it was on the Northside this morning, did they mix that up with the north?

Came in to Dublin from Holyhead during the night and then to the border then Belfast

Shelga

Yeah. I actually think No Deal is going to happen by default. The incompetence we’ve seen is incredible.

I don’t blame people for fighting for another vote though, even if it’s not realistic. You’re not going to stop looking for a lifeboat on a ship that is sinking.

Any chance of parliament getting an extension to article 50, to allow time for another vote?

downcow

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well you'll be obviously able to answer the questions that were asked of the OP before he ran away. Because that seems to be the modus operandi with fantasists here. Dump a meaningless soundbite and run before the hard questions get asked.

What’s the question and I’ll try. No point in asking me to guess what the question is

A Dub in Glasgo

downcow wrote: »

What’s the question and I’ll try. No point in asking me to guess what the question is

Take your pick

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901452&postcount=582

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901462&postcount=583

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901473&postcount=584

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901563&postcount=585

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108901716&postcount=590

downcow

10000maniacs wrote: »

Everybodys voice should be heard. Not sure this philosophy will sort Brexit out but we hear far too little from Ulster farmers in this debate.

🙂 well I was neutral and hence didn’t vote. Couldn’t be sure which way to go. If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote leave as I feel the eu and Eire have fairly disgracefully used our hard earned peace as a bargaining chip to make brexit so painfull that UK won’t leave. I have one solution thought Agree a backstop in the Irish see exactly the same as border backstop with same conditions for removal. I think the majority could wear that. What you think?

Mezcita

downcow wrote: »

�� well I was neutral and hence didn’t vote. Couldn’t be sure which way to go. If there was a vote tomorrow I would vote leave as I feel the eu and Eire have fairly disgracefully used our hard earned peace as a bargaining chip to make brexit so painfull that UK won’t leave. I have one solution thought Agree a backstop in the Irish see exactly the same as border backstop with same conditions for removal. I think the majority could wear that. What you think?

Not voting was your first mistake.