Brexit Discussion Thread VI

BonnieSituation

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

She'll never stand in a GE

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I fully understand that plans may not be revealed until it is necessary to do so, but the bottom line remains the EU will protect the integrity of the SM & CU. We will not get any leeway on this in the event of a no deal.

Not sure we were expecting any leeway. It was clear to me from the beginning that a hard border would be the outcome of no deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Looks like the UK just became a little less relevant in Europe

France and Germany have signed a new treaty on Tuesday aimed at breathing new life into their place at the centre of the European Union.


And in completely unrelated news another UK Vehicle manufacturer becomes foreign owned..
BAE Systems sells control of vehicles arm to Rheinmetall

British defence giant BAE Systems has sold a majority stake in its Land UK tank and combat vehicle division to German rival Rheinmetall for £28.6m.

The new joint venture gives Rheinmetall a 55% stake, with BAE owning the rest, and will be based at the UK firm's factory in Telford, Shropshire.

Called Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land, the venture will produce the British Army's new infantry vehicles.

BAE's Land UK is competing to upgrade and maintain the Challenger 2 tank.

#takebackcontrol

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Most people in Britain (mainland) when asked what they are (nationality) will reply as follows.

1. I am English - if they consider them selves so.

2. I an Scottish - ditto.

3. I am Welsh - ditto.

4. I am Irish if they are from Ireland or from NI (and Nationalist).

5. I am British - if they are from Northern Ireland (and Unionist) or from India.

I think that about covers it. The first four would not consider them selves primarily British over the other identity.

I remember a discussion of the radio about the FIFA/Blatter corruption saga. A fellow from the (English) FA was saying Blatter was signing up football associations across the globe to FIFA that were not even members of the UN. Of course England, Scotland, Wales, and NI all have football associations signed up to FIFA and not one of them is a member of the UN. He did not realise the nonsense he was speaking - even when it was pointed out to him.

Kermit.de.frog

If it came down to a choice between a hard border or Ireland being dislodged from the EU single market (by Britain's actions in leaving) because we want to protect the GFA what are we going to do?

It would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland to be dislodged from the single market. Think of what would happen to all the FDI here for the European market. It's far worse for us than barriers between us and the UK.

I'm afraid in our self interest a hard border may be inevitable. Only other option is be poorer with no border, outside the single market - and basically because the British say so.

J Mysterio

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

Yes. It will be an EU border, but it is actually our border of our state so yes. It's not a matter of the EU insisting but a matter of following legal requirements and agreements.

As has been pointed out previously however, the government would of course be loathe to actually construct the physical border. Its unthinkable. They would, I imagine, filibuster themselves and argue relentlessly about it so it would be interminibly delayed.

One strand of thought is that the UK would be so destroyed in a No Deal Brexit, the government need only dely so long before they are forced to revert to the EU, in turn obviating the need for the border.

Let's hope it doesn't come to it and we won't be forced to deal with the worst possible scenario.

road_high

Hard border won’t impact significantly on our economy- NI is a dot in our overall trade. Something will be worked out in the end, just not up to the EU to solve

Hurrache

We're certainly not leaving the single market.

swampgas

I can see where 17-pdr is coming from, in that Varadkar and Coveney stating they will never put up a border is starting to stretch credulity. Everyone (okay almost everyone) knows that a hard Brexit means a hard border.

I can understand why up to now Leo and Simon haven't wanted to acknowledge that a hard border may be required, but at this stage in the game it's starting to sound a little desperate.

Maybe the point at which the Irish government starts talking publicly about a hard border is the point at which we will know that negotations are truly over, and that the EU has decided that a hard Brexit is inevitable?

Calina

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. Those aren't only manufactured in the UK. If they even are. And you can't really use two pin plugs on 240V AC. Far too dangerous.

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

Kermit.de.frog

P.S maybe Kevin Doyle of the Irish Independent needs to be more careful on his reporting that did the rounds on what Varadkar said today.

That was a categorically false representation of what Varadkar actually said. He never said Ireland would look to do any deal with the UK on it's own.

A bit of professionalism, accurate reporting and common sense wouldn't go a miss.

Brexiteers have seized on it with glee naturally.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

If UK chooses a no deal Brexit, you mean. Please let's place responsibility where it belongs: in the hands of the country which voted to control its own borders.

prawnsambo

Calina wrote: »

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

I'm hazy on the details tbh, but our system of live, earth and neutral isn't the same as on the continent. An electrician explained it to me who had worked on Disneyland Paris and whatever the way they wire there, the chance of getting a fatal electric shock is much less than with our system. Hence the need for three pins, the third being the earth.

But I'd really need to research that again because it was a long time ago.

J Mysterio

swampgas wrote: »

I can see where 17-pdr is coming from, in that Varadkar and Coveney stating they will never put up a border is starting to stretch credulity. Everyone (okay almost everyone) knows that a hard Brexit means a hard border.

I can understand why up to now Leo and Simon haven't wanted to acknowledge that a hard border may be required, but at this stage in the game it's starting to sound a little desperate.

Maybe the point at which the Irish government starts talking publicly about a hard border is the point at which we will know that negotations are truly over, and that the EU has decided that a hard Brexit is inevitable?

If there is a No Deal Brexit, the government are not going to rush out and hurriedly sign agreements with Sisk for the construction, they are going to delay, delay, delay. In this scenario, we will be in crisis. It will be like reliving the treaty again, 100 years later, as our politics descend into chaos. And we can thank our British friends.

Sam Russell

Calina wrote: »

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

The nominal voltage in the EU is 230 vac.

The EU tried to bring in a three pin plug that was to become a standard throughout the EU but was rejected by every country.

There is a fundamental difference of opinion on electrical safety. The UK believes in ring mains and diversity, while Germany relies on a fuse per spur. France relies on double insulation to protect users, while we use ELCBs (earth leakage circuit breakers). It is not an EU competency so it is up to each country.

Ireland originally used Siemans plugs (German), but because of grey imports from the UK had to accept the inevitable and standardise on the UK design.

The EU plug is very like the Swiss one, but has a higher amp rating (16 a).

The only country to adopt the EU standard plug was Brazil - which is ridiculous, because they have both 110 v and 220 v distribution systems, but with identical plugs. This means if someone moves from the 110 vac region to a 220 vac region and plugs in their toaster, it wont just be the bread that is toast.

It would cost a fortune to change over. In my house, I think I have about 50 sockets and 50 plugs - it is amazing to actually count them - they are everywhere.

fly_agaric

J Mysterio wrote: »

If there is a No Deal Brexit, the government are not going to rush out and hurriedly sign agreements with Sisk for the construction, they are going to delay, delay, delay. In this scenario, we will be in crisis. It will be like reliving the treaty again, 100 years later, as our politics descend into chaos. And we can thank our British friends.

Yes this has worried me alot about what happens after a "No deal" Brexit (so have tended to post comments on it).
We're coming to a crunch where we will need to have a strategy for dealing with the situation and then make decisions and implement stuff based off it, not talk a load of shíte about "No hard border" and build castles in the air + wish after what might have been (the backstop).
To stereotype somewhat (but with much evidence from our politics) it is not our strong suit and I doubt we'll be able for this challenge.
Most likely scenario IMO after a UK "crash out" is that we will do as little as possible as regards enforcing of the new EU border/kick the can down the road for as long as humanely possible (and will perhaps be indulged by the rest of EU in this for a time).
Later we may have our hand forced by some instance where we have facilitated a huge fraud/smuggling scandal (hopefully not one that damages health or risks lives) in the EU.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If it came down to a choice between a hard border or Ireland being dislodged from the EU single market (by Britain's actions in leaving) because we want to protect the GFA what are we going to do?

It would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland to be dislodged from the single market. Think of what would happen to all the FDI here for the European market. It's far worse for us than barriers between us and the UK.

I'm afraid in our self interest a hard border may be inevitable. Only other option is be poorer with no border, outside the single market - and basically because the British say so.

Keep in mind the hard border mightn't last long. For it to come into being would mean the British had crashed their own economy....this in turn would probably force them to return to the negotiating table and abandon their red lines.

Enzokk

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I've been out all day and am just catching up on this.
Is it fair to say that Europe has blinked first on this issue? Reading r/UKpolitics on Reddit it appears that some are saying that as UK won't put up a hard border then it is Ireland who is breaking the GFA.
However, to me, it is a result of the UK actions that Ireland have to put up the hard border.

Also how does this align with the BREXIT promise to take back control of its borders and control immigration? How will the UK do that?

I am wondering whether we are playing out the scenario where if there is a no deal Brexit the chaos will be at Dover and the English Channel. The focus will not be on our border initially and there would surely be a hope that if the chaos continues that the UK will quickly come to their senses and get a deal done to ensure unfettered access to the EU single market. That would at least give us a little breathing room before we start construction of custom posts and Varadkar will also have been relatively true to his word in that he had no plans for a border all this time.

Edit: What Strazdas said.

CelticRambler

prawnsambo wrote: »

... you can't really use two pin plugs on 240V AC. Far too dangerous.

Ah, go 'way out of that! :pac:

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm hazy on the details tbh, but our system of live, earth and neutral isn't the same as on the continent.

Yeah, it is: live is live (any colour but blue or green/yellow), neutral is neutral (blue) and earth is earth (green/yellow). Everything's wired to a consumer unit fitted with trip switches, where it picks up a mono or triphase supply.

Sam Russell wrote: »

France relies on double insulation to protect users, while we use ELCBs (earth leakage circuit breakers).

We don't rely on double insulation alone! Everything metallic has to be earth-bonded, and every circuit protected by its own MCB and a master RCD. Most new electrical devices are fitted with a moulded three-pin plug (live, earth and neutral ) except for the same things that come with a two-core wire connected to a three-pin plug in Ireland. The only significant difference is that a ring circuit is prohibited, and there's a limit to the number of outlets you can have on any particular spur.

The quality of French fittings is pretty crap (like most French stuff :rolleyes: ) but I think the regs are probably to a higher standard than in the UK/Irl.

Akrasia

Strazdas wrote: »

Keep in mind the hard border mightn't last long. For it to come into being would mean the British had crashed their own economy....this in turn would probably force them to return to the negotiating table and abandon their red lines.

A UK crash out is a singularity. Its never happened before and all predictions for what come next are pure speculation.

unit 1

Can anyone explain to me how a hard border would work.
In the event of a hard brexit surely there is an onus on the uk and the eu both having border controls, two borders one manned by ourselves but an eu border, and another by the uk, a uk border for controls as I imagine trading under wto rules would also have consequneces for them.

UsedToWait

Sir Ivan Rogers, whose speech at Liverpool University was posted on here, has delivered another broadside at the Brexit bullsh1itters, this time at UCL.
Haven't watched it yet(starts @ around 10 minutes on that link), but Peter Foster of the Telegraph has a thread on it here..

Peter Foster wrote:

Starts by warning that both Brexit 'reversers' and hard-break Brexiteers are killing the common ground for compromise. The result that May's 'my way or the highway' plan has not narrowed the gap, but widened it. /2

Then has a crack at the "bizarre" absolutism of brexiteers who once dreamt of an escape to Norway, but now lament it as BRINO /3

And then absolutely lashes the "canard" of a WTO-only brexit, as the basis for a new global trade strategy. I particularly like the second on these two paras /4

Then, near weeping at this point, ponders the mendacity of the snakeoil salesmen who say that the UK flouncing out of the EU on WTO rules is the route to putting the EU in the backfoot for a trade negotiation . /5

.. and so, depressingly, on...

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

... if there is a no deal Brexit the chaos will be at Dover and the English Channel. The focus will not be on our border initially and there would surely be a hope that if the chaos continues that the UK will quickly come to their senses and get a deal done to ensure unfettered access to the EU single market.

As I've been listening to the various stories concerning the Channel challenge (ground has been broken this week on new large-animal import inspection facilities at the Channel Tunnel terminal, by the French; the English don't have space for anything similar on their side), I think that that is going to consume such a huge proportion of the UK's limited resources that the "Irish border" problem will require a common-sense solution simply because there won't be any other way to deal with it.

And that common-sense solution will be for Westminster to speak nicely to Dublin and ask if maybe they could lend a hand if Westminster agrees to move the check-points to the Belfast ports. I can see Leo willingly agreeing to a proposal to have Irish/EU inspectors working in NI on behalf of the UK government during a chaotic Brexit "unless and until" the UK's regulations start to diverge from the EU's, and that's not going to happen while Westminster is consumed with fighting fires on its southern front (metaphorical and/or real, depending on how long the no-deal chaos lasts).

Nody

unit 1 wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me how a hard border would work.
In the event of a hard brexit surely there is an onus on the uk and the eu both having border controls, two borders one manned by ourselves but an eu border, and another by the uk, a uk border for controls as I imagine trading under wto rules would also have consequneces for them.

In theory they can be WTO compliant and say we don't do ANY customs control anywhere. But Brexiteers don't want to talk about that in general because they realize how silly such an idea would be. The second idea only coming up recently was basically ignore it and let all EU trade flow but that ignores the fact China could import a container to Ireland and route it via NI without the Irish customs agents giving a damn.

Or as someone put it; UK is leaving one trade group stating they don't want to follow the rules only to join a second trade group trade group stating they are not going to follow their rules either. The idea being it will be a few years before the cases grind through but the penalties will still be applied only a few years later...

Atlantic Dawn

Hurrache wrote: »

On top of the news today that Sony is moving business out of the UK and into Holland, P&O have announced they're reflagging all their UK fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit.

And Daniel Kawczynski keeps digging his hole deeper.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1087691731095699456?s=19

The P&O decision to select Cyprus is rather more that it's a cheap ass country for shipping legislation and allows them to hire staff on lower terms and conditions than UK staff. Irish Ferries have had their ships registered almost entirely in Cyprus for the last 20 years plus.

theguzman

Does anyone see the Irony of how the EU are about to stab Ireland in the back and force us to implement a hard border here, despite the Irish Government or the majority of the Irish people North and South not wanting it. Leo Varadkar has been the EU's most ardent supporter and now Poland and the Eastern States with Conservative Patriotic Governments are aligning towards the UK in support of Brexit. The EU has never cared one bit for Ireland despite what people think, they are not our allies and we have nothing in common with them. This Government will obey EU orders from Brussels and re-instate the Border when ordered to do so. The only way there can be no border in the event of a Hard Brexit is for Ireland to also leave the EU.

funkey_monkey

BonnieSituation wrote: »

She'll never stand in a GE

She is too divisive a figure to stand in a GE, especially west of the Bann. However, it is a moot point as she will want to be First Minister again and therefore will only stand in the assembly elections where she will get back in easily enough.

FrancieBrady

theguzman wrote: »

Does anyone see the Irony of how the EU are about to stab Ireland in the back and force us to implement a hard border here, despite the Irish Government or the majority of the Irish people North and South not wanting it. Leo Varadkar has been the EU's most ardent supporter and now Poland and the Eastern States with Conservative Patriotic Governments are aligning towards the UK in support of Brexit. The EU has never cared one bit for Ireland despite what people think, they are not our allies and we have nothing in common with them. This Government will obey EU orders from Brussels and re-instate the Border when ordered to do so. The only way there can be no border in the event of a Hard Brexit is for Ireland to also leave the EU.

We never 'wanted' it. And we knew what had to be done to avoid it. Negotiate a deal that had an alternative. And the UK agreed to that deal at PM level.

If the UK go ahead and crash out then 2 years negotiating that deal have been wasted and we have what we all didn't want (allegedly).

There are no EU knives in our backs.

theguzman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We never 'wanted' it. And we knew what had to be done to avoid it. Negotiate a deal that had an alternative. And the UK agreed to that deal at PM level.

If the UK go ahead and crash out then 2 years negotiating that deal have been wasted and we have what we all didn't want (allegedly).

There are no EU knives in our backs.

The EU have let Ireland down by failing to make enough concessions to the UK to avoid a hard border. They wanted free trade without the EU telling them what to do and telling them who can live in the UK and who can't. The Eu should be about trade like the days of the Coal and Steel Pact not turning into a Franco/German Empire.

Anthracite

theguzman wrote: »

Majority rules and the people spoke so accept the decision, build a bridge and get over it.

Is there any chance we might hear something other than this facile platitude at some point in the future? Or is it easier just to put you on ignore right now?