Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Charles Babbage

downcow wrote: »

Are you purposely not answering the question I was asking. And of course I know there are differences in UK regions and biosecurity checks etc at Irish Sea. My point is why this is ok for remainers but it is abhorrent to have any checks at international border?

It isn't an international border as per the GFA which recognises that the Irish nation is found on both sides of the border

And how can you not know that there are currently checks at the roi/ NI border?

Where, exactly?

Firblog

The hard facts now are that the deal - as it is - is dead. The backstop killed it. To have any chance of passing a vote in the UK Parliament the backstop will have to go. For that to happen there will have to be a way of implementing customs inspections that both sides agree are, comprehensive, robust, and don't involve 'physical border infrastructure' - anyone care to explain what that means? Have our Govt actually explained what they mean by it?

FrancieBrady

theguzman wrote: »

The EU have let Ireland down by failing to make enough concessions to the UK to avoid a hard border. They wanted free trade without the EU telling them what to do and telling them who can live in the UK and who can't. The Eu should be about trade like the days of the Coal and Steel Pact not turning into a Franco/German Empire.

I think you will find that the vast majority of Irish people think the backstop was a perfectly fair and adequate concession to the UK.
If they crash out they will crash out because a small political party in northern Ireland had an abstract objection to it. The DUP are the knife in the backs of us all, the rest of the UK included.

Hurrache

theguzman wrote: »

Majority rules and the people spoke so accept the decision, build a bridge and get over it. It is the will of the people and time will prove it to be the correct decision as the Franco/German EU axis will unravel and the Visegrad countries to the East will also act as a bulwark against the Imperial ambitions of Merkel and Macron.

I see a new script has been issued anyway.

Hurrache

Firblog wrote: »

The hard facts now are that the deal - as it is - is dead. The backstop killed it. To have any chance of passing a vote in the UK Parliament the backstop will have to go.

The backstop is the excuse but it's not what killed it. Parliament had a chance to kill the backstop in an amendment last week(ignoring the fact it would have fundamentally changed the WA) and only a handful voted for it.

What has killed it is the ineptitude of both sides of the UK house of parliament.

FrancieBrady

Firblog wrote: »

The hard facts now are that the deal - as it is - is dead.

Somebody can correct me if I am wrong here but if the Grieve Amendment succeds and No Deal is off the table then May's deal very much comes back into play. The choice will be Brexit via May's deal or retreat and Remain.

Firblog

Hurrache wrote: »

What has killed it is the ineptitude of both sides of the UK house of parliament.

No mate, did you hear even one MP say what a good thing the backstop was? Did you hear anyone using it as a plus point when trying to sell the deal? Didn't think so, it was the poisoned pill most MPs refused to swallow.

Firblog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Somebody can correct me if I am wrong here but if the Grieve Amendment succeds and No Deal is off the table then May's deal very much comes back into play. The choice will be Brexit via May's deal or retreat and Remain.

How about a referendum? No Deal Brexit, or May Deal Brexit?

That way the result of the first referendum is respected, the MPs are off the hook, and the electorate are to blame if all goes to crap in a hard Brexit.

Lemming

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Nothing to do with me giving too much power to the English; Just a statement of cold, hard truth.

The issue at stake isn't whether or not they get to decide who is or isn't British; and on that I agree completely with you. But what is fundamentally at stake is whether they register you as British to consider you at all when making overriding political decisions that are contrary to what the population of N.Ireland want. Brexit is being fuelled by a waking rise in English nationalism that has long been dormant. Politically that means the rest of the union is being ignored to varying degrees of near totality in a pursuit of 'self' by England. Which brings up the crux of what it is to be British. For the smaller parts of the union, there would seem to be an ingrained awareness of being part of a bigger whole not least by virtue of government sitting in another constituent country of the union. But for a lot of English folk, that awareness isn't there because they're the biggest part of the union; the governments sits there, they don't really learn much about the history of the rest of the union, and they are the 'whole' with a few extra bits hanging off the edge that they sometimes travel to for whatever reason. That awareness is not helped by the fact that Westminster is extremely London-centric.

For all the loyalty shown (in being an identity-defining trait of Northern Unionists) the English scarcely even recognise you to consider sparing a seconds thought for you as British. They recognise the Scots & the Welsh when it suits, but not you; you're just another Paddy. At most, you'll get a question of whether you're from the "Southern bit" or the "Northern bit" and then possibly a question about whether the "Northern bit" is part of the union or not, or a variation on that question. That's how much they register your loyalty or existence. This lack of awareness was amply visible during & after the referendum campaign. During the campaign the few instances where the border and/or the GFA were raised, those concerns were dismissed by Brexiteers as simple and unimportant because - as we all know - they knew or cared little about N.Ireland, its deeply troubled history, or the complexity of the border issue and couldn't be bothered to know. Until it became a sticking point in negotiations at which point the "Paddies should know their place" comments started.

So to come back to your question about why whatever the English should think matters; one of the very few truisms that has been revealed - starkly - courtesy of Brexit is that the dominant political power in the [British] union is England. If the rest of the union voted 100% to remain, and England voted 100% to leave, the rest of the union still couldn't defeat England in a numerical vote count. This is what I am alluding to when I talk about a pursuit of 'self' by England. Where that ties into Northern Ireland is quite simple: the harder the Brexit, the worse things are going to get domestically. In that case, sooner rather than later, people are going to latch onto the sizeable subvention that is sent to N.Ireland every year to keep the lights on. If & when that happens, there will be more and more pressure directed onto the amount directed to Northern Ireland. That means, at the very least, spending cuts for services and given how large an employer that the public sector is in Northern Ireland, those cuts will be felt harshly.

Being aware of what England's attitude (or general indifferent lack of awareness perhaps) is towards N.Ireland is important because it does and will continue to affect you in some way shape or form. As the expression goes; "all politics is local". Whether or not you wish to take to heart what they think is up to you, but don't be oblivious to what they DO think

FrancieBrady

Firblog wrote: »

How about a referendum? No Deal Brexit, or May Deal Brexit?

That way the result of the first referendum is respected, the MPs are off the hook, and the electorate are to blame if all goes to crap in a hard Brexit.

Another referendum is an internal matter for the UK. The options will still be the same, take the deal or Remain. If Grieve's amendment succeeds No Deal won't be on the paper.

An Ciarraioch

Firblog wrote: »

No mate, did you hear even one MP say what a good thing the backstop was? Did you hear anyone using it as a plus point when trying to sell the deal? Didn't think so, it was the poisoned pill most MPs refused to swallow.

If the WA had been defeated by <50 votes, there might have been some truth in the argument that it was solely the backstop that caused this, but the fact that the margin was over 230 highlights that it was the divisions within Westminster over the next approach that was responsible.

Capt'n Midnight

theguzman wrote: »

Majority rules and the people spoke so accept the decision, build a bridge and get over it. It is the will of the people and time will prove it to be the correct decision as the Franco/German EU axis will unravel and the Visegrad countries to the East will also act as a bulwark against the Imperial ambitions of Merkel and Macron.

And then the people spoke again and took away May's majority. (BTW France and Germany just got closer - check the news, Brexit is a unifying force in Europe )

Also demographics, many of those insulated from the downside of Brexit by triple lock pensions have simply died while more pro-EU voters have come of age.

Ignore changes in the will of the people at your peril.




Brexit happened because of a power struggle in the Tory party.

May didnt't win the contest, she took the dead king’s crown from a thorn bush after every other contestant had been knifed in the back or tripped up and fell on their own sword.

There was a similar one in Merkel's party. Like May she will step down. But unlike May there is a clear successor with clear policies and a roadmap.

J Mysterio

Firblog wrote: »

The hard facts now are that the deal - as it is - is dead. The backstop killed it. To have any chance of passing a vote in the UK Parliament the backstop will have to go. For that to happen there will have to be a way of implementing customs inspections that both sides agree are, comprehensive, robust, and don't involve 'physical border infrastructure' - anyone care to explain what that means? Have our Govt actually explained what they mean by it?

If it wasnt the backstop, the brexiteers would be moaning about something else. Its unfortunate for us that they have now latched onto this element of the deal but the EU cannot now accept the backstop being removed they have committed to it in the strongesg terms. It stays or no deal.

Firblog

Hurrache wrote: »

"Mate", sigh.

Do you know your backstop history?

Would the beginning be that back in the 20's & early 30's there were no customs controls between North and South of Ireland?

EdgeCase

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm hazy on the details tbh, but our system of live, earth and neutral isn't the same as on the continent. An electrician explained it to me who had worked on Disneyland Paris and whatever the way they wire there, the chance of getting a fatal electric shock is much less than with our system. Hence the need for three pins, the third being the earth.

But I'd really need to research that again because it was a long time ago.

Just to quash a myth

(and I don't want to derail this thread into a side issue about electrical wiring.)

There's absolutely no difference whatsoever, other than the plug. There's a lot of mythology, particularly on British forums about differences and superiority complexes.

Believe it or not, a lot of online comments about this tend to see the 3 pin UK plug as a symbol of British cultural identity (mind boggling, I know.)

All of the EU uses 230V 50Hz

Any appliance sold in any EU country works in any other EU country. They're all approved to exactly the same specifications and standards. It's a single market with a single set of fundamental technical standards.

Most of Europe used a plug and socket system called CEE 7 which became a de facto standard. It's the two round pins, a recessed socket and earth is connected either by scraping contacts or a pin that sticks out of the socket.

Where an appliance doesn't need an earth, a smaller plug without earth contacts is used allowing for neater plugs.

Only things like kettles and washing machines, with actual earth wiring use the bigger plug with the earth contacts.

Ireland used this system officially until the 1960s and it's still fully defined in Irish standards even if it's not used by default.

A few countries use semi-compatible national systems (same two round pins but different earth pin) - Italy, Denmark and Switzerland. So things like mobile phone chargers and small non earthed appliances plugs will fit the sockets but bigger plugs don't.

Then there's BS1363 used in the UK, Ireland, Cyprus and Malta which uses 3 rectangular pins.
It's an unusual system in so far as it requires a dummy earth pin to open the socket. There's no earth necessary on most "class 2" double insulated appliances. But due to the socket design, it's impossible to produce a smaller 2 pin plug as would be the norm in the rest of Europe, Japan, North America and Australia and NZ.
..

Hope that clears things up.

In a Brexit scenario, we have no problem with appliances other than the plugs which isn't a massive deal.

Worst case scenario, we end up with adapters and having to cut off and fit plugs and then phase in a modern version of earthed, shuttered, polarised continental sockets, like the French system.

The modern versions of continental sockets have similar safety features to ours. Finger protection (recessed socket) and shutters. The French version is also polarisrd (plug only goes in one way).

You'd be looking at something like a gradual phase out of the existing sockets as people rewire or update decor. A minor annoyance compared to most of the impacts of Brexit.

Firblog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If the WA had been defeated by <50 votes, there might have been some truth in the argument that it was solely the backstop that caused this, but the fact that the margin was over 230 highlights that it was the divisions within Westminster over the next approach that was responsible.

Then the MPs must think that the deal is an absolute stinking pile of crap in its entirety if the backstop wasn't the main reason it was defeated so heavily.

FrancieBrady

Firblog wrote: »

Then the MPs must think that the deal is an absolute stinking pile of crap in its entirety if the backstop wasn't the main reason it was defeated so heavily.

Yes many of them had multi objections + those who want to hard Brexit

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The nominal voltage in the EU is 230 vac.

The EU tried to bring in a three pin plug that was to become a standard throughout the EU but was rejected by every country.

It's 230V +/- enough to cover both 220 and 240 a typical EU fudge that keeps everyone happy.


We and the UK use ring mains, a system who's main benefit is that it used less copper wire when there was a shortage during WWII. The down side is you have to be bloody careful as it's very easy to overload , especially if there is a break in any of the wires. This is the reason why we have the safest plugs. Unless you stand on the buggers.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/The_Convention_/status/1086214907304046592

Two of my favorite brexit commentators and neither of them have a clue what's going to happen next. Worrying times.

Mushy

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

Tell me how

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

Irish and EU comments on the border have been consistent since the start.
They seem more prevalent now because the bright sparks in the UK are only now wakening up to the fact that the issue is a reality.

Hurrache

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

The problem is that many in the UK are thinking the same thing, but in their favour. The backstop conundrum.

Mushy

Tell me how wrote: »

Irish and EU comments on the border have been consistent since the start.
They seem more prevalent now because the bright sparks in the UK are only now wakening up to the fact that the issue is a reality.

Oh they have, but feel it's a lot more open now than before. Does put pressure on UK moreso now

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think you will find that the vast majority of Irish people think the backstop was a perfectly fair and adequate concession to the UK.
If they crash out they will crash out because a small political party in northern Ireland had an abstract objection to it. The DUP are the knife in the backs of us all, the rest of the UK included.

The backstop was intended to last only as long as the UK and EU needed to agree on an arrangement that kept trade friction and movement of people on the island of Ireland to an absolute minimum, i.e. as near as we can get to the situation that's currently enjoyed.

If May hadn't blundered her way into making the DUP kingmakers, the whole thing would have been sorted, and arrangements for a seamless solution at the border could have implemented in a sane, orderly and mutually agreeable fashion.

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's 230V +/- enough to cover both 220 and 240 a typical EU fudge that keeps everyone happy.


We and the UK use ring mains, a system who's main benefit is that it used less copper wire when there was a shortage during WWII. The down side is you have to be bloody careful as it's very easy to overload , especially if there is a break in any of the wires. This is the reason why we have the safest plugs. Unless you stand on the buggers.

Also Ireland historically used standards inspired by Siemens and ASEA (now ABB) and DIN German sfuff. So we nominally used 220V 50Hz (standardised decades before the UK ever settled on 240V btw). It's also why we historically used German type DZ bottle shaped fuses and of that stuff.

Rings are Indeed permitted here but radials tend to be more common, again, we've somewhat more continental electrical heritage.

In the big scheme of things, you're talking about very minor differences involving a dumb plug and socket connector. There's only so many ways of connecting 3 wires with 3 lumps of brass and some springs.

Few, if any, appliances are actually made in the UK. So really it's just a supply chain issue, with most coming from the Far East or the continent anyway.

I would be a lot more worried about cars as right hand drive is genuinely weird and if the UK were to wander way off EU norms you could have issues here.

Folkstonian

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And then the people spoke again and took away May's majority. (BTW France and Germany just got closer - check the news, Brexit is a unifying force in Europe )

An utterly fascinating development. Their joint announcement today signalling astutely more military and political cooperation between France and geemany was delicately timed to send a message

Was it to say to on the fence voters in the case of a second referendum, don’t bother trying to stay inside the EU if you hope to keep our military, social and political integration projects at arms length?

That there is more substance to the ‘scare stories’ about sovereignty and a European Armed Forces than many remain campaigners (looking your way right now Mr Clegg) would ever care to admit.

I really don’t know. But I don’t think it will help convince anyone in England that a second vote to stay means a return to the status quo.

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Is it a good thing, a concern, or a step too far, or at least too soon?

Bigus

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

I've been saying it for 2 years , the real issue for the uk is the hard border at Calais, Rotterdam , zeebrugger et all , and they need to realise the full implications of this , Eu pointing out the Pontential issues on the land border might help crystallise minds as to what's going to happen at ports, which is where Brexit life difficulties will bang home.

marieholmfan

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would be a lot more worried about cars as right hand drive is genuinely weird and if the UK were to wander way off EU norms you could have issues here.

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

EdgeCase

It's undoubtedly going to impact Irish supply chains but I think the notion that it will impact Ireland more than the UK doesn't hold water.

We have alternative routes, destinations and supply chains without any need to negotiate anything. At worst we have a few bumps as we adapt but we don't have a medium term problem.

Goods can bypass the UK if they have to.

The UK on the other hand is permanently cutting itself off from the common market.

We just have to deal with the lack of smooth access to the UK. The rest of Europe remains unchanged for us. It's a logistical challenge to replace the land bridge routes across the UK but it's far from insurmountable.

Ireland's relatively small and nimble. So it's not as massive a task to resolve as the UK is logistics sector is facing.

EdgeCase

marieholmfan wrote: »

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

It may have but cars were specifically excluded from it for a period of time to allow adaptation.

It could end up integrating us into the Japanese car market though.

At present there isn't technical harmonisation. It's just a trade deal but that is likely to evolve, assuming the deal stays on track.