Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Folkstonian

Why is right hand drive genuinely weird?

If you mean simply in terms of numbers of cars worldwide in comparison to left hand drive, then this isn’t the case really.

But if you mean the actual mechanics of it; seeing as between 80 and 90 percent of people worldwide are right handed, does right hand drive seem to be the solution that allows the safest way to change gears, as the more dominant and dexterous hand of the driver is the one invariably left on the wheel, allowing better control of the vehicle?

Charles Babbage

What's happening here?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/irish-pm-tells-uk-only-bilateral-deal-would-prevent-post-brexit-hard-border

Is Leo leaving the EU? Weird!

A Dub in Glasgo

Firblog wrote: »

No mate, did you hear even one MP say what a good thing the backstop was? Did you hear anyone using it as a plus point when trying to sell the deal? Didn't think so, it was the poisoned pill most MPs refused to swallow.

Well you can now tell us how many MPs voted to kill the backstop

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

Worst case scenario, we end up with adapters and having to cut off and fit plugs and then phase in a modern version of earthed, shuttered, polarised continental sockets, like the French system.

Places like Italy (three in a row, two different sizes) and Belgium (three in a row with a offset) have something entirely different to the French/German compromise (earth on sides vs earth pin).

Top Tip : if visiting the EU the "continental adaptors" you get here are usually un-earthed and in most countries they are only useful in bathrooms where the washing machine is, or for compatibility with local adaptors ( it's MUCH easier getting a "German" adaptor than a UK one)


That's the lovely thing about standards , there's so many to choose from.

Unlike , say , Brexit deals.

Sierra Oscar

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

marieholmfan

Folkstonian wrote: »

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Bizarre especially given their treatment of the UK which is one of very few European countries with warfighting capacity.
Throughout this process the EU hasn't been at all interested in UK intelligence gathering abilities, in the UK contribution to Galileo or in anything other than trade.

The EU clearly institutionally doesn't see an army as part of ever closer union so what is the Macron / Merkel deal actually about?

An Claidheamh

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Places like Italy (three in a row, two different sizes) and Belgium (three in a row with a offset) have something entirely different to the French/German compromise (earth on sides vs earth pin).

Top Tip : if visiting the EU the "continental adaptors" you get here are usually un-earthed and in most countries they are only useful in bathrooms where the washing machine is, or for compatibility with local adaptors ( it's MUCH easier getting a "German" adaptor than a UK one)


That's the lovely thing about standards , there's so many to choose from.

Unlike , say , Brexit deals.

Belgium uses exactly the same as France. It's where the current CEE 7 system originates. The compromise system that fits German and French sockets originates in the Benelux to have a completely compatible system between those 3 countries. It was developed in the 50s/60s and subsequently adopted across Europe.

A lot of pan EU concepts originated in the Benelux.

I would ignore Italy's issues. Their plug/socket system is absolutely bonkers with multiple standards nationally.

Switzerland uses the weird 3 pins with one offset. They're not in the EU and tend to be isolationists anyway.

Denmark is the only other odd one and they're apparently adopting the French/Belgian standard.

Italy is allegedly phasing out it's old multiple national standards in favour of CEE 7, but it seems most people haven't got the memo and use all 3 or 4 different types simultaneously. That's more a reflection of Italy than it is of EU standards.

Basically ALL of Europe (with the exception of a few hold outs) use the same plug and socket. It's also used right across the former USSR and also in South Korea and various other places around the world.

AFAIK, it's the most widely used system on the planet.

This stuff is FAR less chaotic than people seem to think.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

An utterly fascinating development. Their joint announcement today signalling astutely more military and political cooperation between France and geemany was delicately timed to send a message

Was it to say to on the fence voters in the case of a second referendum, don’t bother trying to stay inside the EU if you hope to keep our military, social and political integration projects at arms length?

That there is more substance to the ‘scare stories’ about sovereignty and a European Armed Forces than many remain campaigners (looking your way right now Mr Clegg) would ever care to admit.

I really don’t know. But I don’t think it will help convince anyone in England that a second vote to stay means a return to the status quo.

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Is it a good thing, a concern, or a step too far, or at least too soon?

Well AFAIK the EU military will still be subject to a veto. So any EU country can veto their participation in this or even if they want to establish it. So if any country doesn't want to participate they don't have to.

theguzman wrote: »

The EU have let Ireland down by failing to make enough concessions to the UK to avoid a hard border. They wanted free trade without the EU telling them what to do and telling them who can live in the UK and who can't. The Eu should be about trade like the days of the Coal and Steel Pact not turning into a Franco/German Empire.

There are no concessions from the EU that would have satisfied what the UK was after unless you wanted to break up the EU. They want access to the single market and they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but they don't want to sign up to the four freedoms nor do they want to have the same tariffs of the EU which will avoid the border. This is because they want to negotiate their own trade deals.

Do you think you could expand on where and what the EU could have conceded to the UK that would have gotten a deal over the line?

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

The backstop is not a serious obstacle to a deal, except in the context of the parties in Westminster refusing to cooperate with each other. Labour want a customs union anyway, they did not vote against the withdrawal agreement because of the customs union. As for the Brexiteers if it wasn't the backstop it would be something else. There might be 20 (dup + 10) with definite views on the backstop, but no more.

BonnieSituation

marieholmfan wrote: »

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

Just clear this up now...

RHD or driving on the left (IRL, UK, JPN, AUS, NZ) vs LHD and drvining on the right (USA, CDN, FR, DE, NL)

Hurrache

The Sun political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, on the Sky paper review yet displaying more ignorance, or likely just making things up, saying Varadkar is under increasing pressure from the opposition, Irish media and EU to sit down with May and come to an agreement.

Sierra Oscar

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

EdgeCase

The assumption initially (and I think even in London) was that Northern Ireland would have a special status to keep it in the UK but also effectively in the EU.

The EU was very happy to facilitate that due to the unique circumstances found in Northern Ireland and because the region is absolutely tiny in terms of economic consequences for the union as a whole.

The DUP ruled that out with their "blood red lines".

So if Brexit fails, Brexiteers can thank the DUP for making it an impossibility.

If we end up with a crash out and a hard border : thank the DUP.

If the Northern Irish economy goes into a tail spin, thank the DUP.

They've removed any possibility of a pragmatic solution to this and it was completely predictable that this would be the outcome.

Northern Ireland was given the opportunity to be in an absolutely fantastic situation economically. It could have been great. However, it the dogmatic identity politics dragged it back down to earth and we are where we are basically a choice of No Brexit or a crash out.

The Tories were warned and warned and warned about the risk of getting into bed with the DUP.

The incredible No Men strike again.

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

A border is not enforceable, even if you declare one.

Mr.Nice Guy

Our government can't even figure out how to build houses properly and people think it's going to be able to enforce a border that has more crossings than the entire Eastern frontier of the EU? No chance.

Sierra Oscar

Charles Babbage wrote: »

A border is not enforceable, even if you declare one.

If that prospect arises, and the EU Commission believe that Ireland is unable to enforce a border, then we could be placed outside of the Customs Union. That would be devastating for Ireland - and would also destroy the confidence that the Irish people have in the European Union. It would be interpreted as a massive betrayal. A volatile situation indeed.

As EdgeCase points out, what is needed is a special arrangement for Northern Ireland. That is impossible while the DUP are in control. A UK General Election is needed.

Sierra Oscar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

The stark realities of this whole Brexit story really seem to have crystallized with today's events and demonstrate how unpleasant it could get. Could we afford to implement and maintain a hard border ourselves? Remember the foot & mouth affair in 2001 and the large diversion of resources needed to police it. I remember the feeling at the time after it was all over: "thank God for that, can you imagine if that was a permanent arrangement". I honestly think we can't do it ourselves with the physical characteristics of the border making it impossible tbh.

Charles Babbage

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just to quash a myth
Worst case scenario, we end up with adapters and having to cut off and fit plugs and then phase in a modern version of earthed, shuttered, polarised continental sockets, like the French system.

The modern versions of continental sockets have similar safety features to ours. Finger protection (recessed socket) and shutters. The French version is also polarisrd (plug only goes in one way).

You'd be looking at something like a gradual phase out of the existing sockets as people rewire or update decor. A minor annoyance compared to most of the impacts of Brexit.

But those plugs have no fuse and we have ring mains with 30A trips.

EdgeCase

We're kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If we end up in breech of EU common market rules, we can't stay in the EU and that would mean bye bye FDI, market opportunities, no more currency stability or low interest rates, not to mention a currently improving national debt burden that could suddenly become totally unsustainable and basically back to the bad old days of mass emigration and poverty.

My view of it is if it happens it happens. Blame the DUP and the Tories and Northern Ireland will probably be enthusiastically signing up for a united Ireland in a decade's time.

I don't think committing economic suicide is good for this island or a future united Ireland.

Northern Ireland's voters are a hell of a lot more pragmatic than the DUP.

Think long game here !!

Sierra Oscar

Deleted User wrote: »

The stark realities of this whole Brexit story really seem to have crystallized with today's events and demonstrate how unpleasant it could get. Could we afford to implement and maintain a hard border ourselves? Remember the foot & mouth affair in 2001 and the large diversion of resources needed to police it. I remember the feeling at the time after it was all over: "thank God for that, can you imagine if that was a permanent arrangement". I honestly think we can't do it ourselves with the physical characteristics of the border making it impossible tbh.

It would be a mammoth task to try and implement a hard border effectively over night. I would imagine upwards to 1,000 Gardaí would have to be deployed to border divisions alone. The number of Gardaí in border areas has declined by 50% + in recent decades. Then you would have to construct border infrastructure and seal roads to make it more manageable. It would be hugely costly and would massively impact on people's way of life in border communities.

I just can't see how we could fulfil our obligations to enforce a hard border. That leaves two options for the Irish Government - let ourselves be kicked out of the Customs Union or compromise on the backstop and fudge the issue until the UK is given more time to arrange less onerous border arrangements.

johnnyskeleton

EdgeCase wrote: »

If we end up in breech of EU common market rules, we can't stay in the EU and that basically would mean bye bye FDI, market opportunities and basically back to the bad old days of mass emigration and poverty.

I don't think committing economic suicide is good for this island or a future united Ireland.

No one is taking about Ireland breaching common market rules though. Logically, if the EU agrees a compromise solution and Ireland goes along with it, thats the very opposite of breaching the rules.

EdgeCase

Bear in mind another issue : it will be a customs border if it happens. It won't be a security or immigration border as movement of people issues don't really arrise.

EdgeCase

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

No one is taking about Irepand breaching common market rules though. Logically, if the EU agrees a compromise solution and Ireland goes along with it, thats the very opposite of breaching the rules.

There's no compromise situation on the table. The single market rules are very serious and are further backed up by the WTO rules.

The only solution would take Ireland out of the common market and into some associate member status which would be a total disaster.

I'd say we are going to have to come up with some kind of academic and technical border that works on paper trails tbh and try damn hard to convince the EU and WTO that it is going to be actually enforced bureaucratically to the point that no infrastructure is needed.

sink

I don't think we should worry too much about a no-deal scenario lasting very long, certainly not long enough for the prospect of a border between Ireland and the rest of Europe to take shape. Chaos in the UK in that situation serves our purpose by forcing them back to the negotiating table with an even weaker position than they have now. No-deal will only last as long as it takes to hold an election and for a new government to be formed, which will certainly not constitute the conservative party or the DUP.

EdgeCase

Charles Babbage wrote: »

But those plugs have no fuse and we have ring mains with 30A trips.

I'm mindful not to want to derail this thread into a discussions about a very simple technical standard but I also want to just quash the notion that this stuff is a major problem. It simply isn't.

It's a very minor technical issue that's easily overcome.
Some installations here use 32 amp ring circuits. Others (including my last 3 houses) use 16 and 20amp radials only. It's quite different in the UK where basically 100% of homes use rings.

You would continue to use the current sockets and adaptors on rings until the house was ultimately rewired. Or, you would use continental sockets that included a built in fuse on the live. That would give you say 16 amp local protection which 100% solves that issue.

Either way, it's a minor inconvenience that's being turned into massive deal. They're just dumb mains connectors. Nothing particularly technically complex about any of them.

The main thing is that the appliances can be sourced from continental supply chains, without any issue other than adapting or changing the plug.

I really do not want to turn the thread into a discuss about a plugs. It's a very small technical issue that is extremely easily worked around, even if it requires a tweak to the wiring regulations.

The key issue is that Ireland has a absolutely no risk of being unable to source electrical appliances and electronics. We just need to adapt our supply chains.

My main point is simply that it's not a major trade issue, but just a temporary inconvenience, no worse than what goes on every day in Denmark for example, a small market with non standard plugs.

The big challenges here will be about adjusting supply chains and that's across the board in every aspect of the economy.

Hopefully it's not going to get to this though and some kind of pragmatism dawns in London over the weeks ahead.

EdgeCase

sink wrote: »

I don't think we should worry too much about a no-deal scenario lasting very long, certainly not long enough for the prospect of a border between Ireland and the rest of Europe to take shape. Chaos in the UK in that situation serves our purpose by forcing them back to the negotiating table with an even weaker position than they have now. No-deal will only last as long as it takes to hold an election and for a new government to be formed, which will certainly not constitute the conservative party or the DUP.

I think that's likely after a period of total chaos in March and maybe into the summer.

I could see a no deal happening followed by a serious economic crisis in the UK and then a deal being struck after the event and probably after a general election and the consumption of a lot of humble pie.

I'd see a much more pragmatic approach from a far less arrogant UK 2 or 3 months after a hard Brexit.

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It would be a mammoth task to try and implement a hard border effectively over night. I would imagine upwards to 1,000 Gardaí would have to be deployed to border divisions alone. The number of Gardaí in border areas has declined by 50% + in recent decades. Then you would have to construct border infrastructure and seal roads to make it more manageable. It would be hugely costly and would massively impact on people's way of life in border communities.

Sealing roads would simply lead to people opening them again. You could shoot them, of course, but that might have political consequences or the Gardai and Army might simply refuse.



Historical precedents re stopping smuggling are not good.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/argus/news/building-tunnels-under-the-border-to-smuggle-pigs-fascinated-worlds-media-26938725.html



However, even if there was a "no deal" on 30 March, I wouldn't panic, the British have to make a deal, the cannot ignore the EU. The majority in NI want the border open, a "no deal" is not stable.

MrMusician18

In every crisis there is opportunity. And nothing happens in isolation
There are elements within the commission that want to extract concessions from Ireland in the area of common tax policy and will use this to further that agenda.

While I'm no expert on EU law, the worst sanction the EU can impose on a member nation is to withdraw their voting rights. Is it even legally possible to be suspended or removed from the CU?

It would be my guess that in the event of no deal, the Irish government is banking on chaos to bring the UK back to the table fairly sharpish.

I would fully expect the EU to give implementation of the hard border a pass if it was to be open and unagreed for a matter of weeks or months. However if it lasted longer, or there was an animal health crisis then things would change dramatically.

EdgeCase

There's also a significant possibility that the UK goes into a very hardcore currency and sovereign and private debt crisis that causes a major global financial incident.

That would be followed by a major change of politics and attitudes in the UK, but I still think we are risking a 2008 style meltdown. There are a lot of economic risks that will suddenly become crystallised by investors losing confidence.

I would be preparing for a few months of potential chaos tbh and certainly trying to eliminate risks this year.

For me this is a year of paying down debt and avoiding overstretching my finances.