Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Bob24

Captain Obvious wrote: »

We haven't lost EU support though. The hard border in the case of a no-deal exit was always going to be a reality. The EU have stuck by us in insisting any deal must keep regulatory alignment ion the island of Ireland.

Yes for what I have highlighted and this is what the EC is saying. But our governement is saying the exact opposite. Shows the panic building-up; and the false expectation I was referring to that the EU wouldn’t make any move towards reinstating a border non matter what (I absolutely agree with you that the EU forcing the return of a border in a no deal scenario was obvious from the start, but what I am mentioning in terms of losing support Is that the Irish strategy has been based on the fact that it wouldn’t happen and our government is now on a completely opposite line than the EC’s related to this).

EdgeCase

RobMc59 wrote: »

This whole view is based on NI collapsing and what can be "grabbed "from the UK-I thought it was the UK who was self serving and selfish?

We have a scenario where the UK has thrown us under a bus and is busily driving and reversing back and forth over the Good Friday Agreement and has put our economic stability in peril.

We owe them nothing. They've caused this by not caring a jot about the implications for anyone else. They didn't seem to even know they had an EU land border.

Of course we grab whatever upsides we can. What else can we do? We've been placed in a very awkward position.

Captain Obvious

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes for what I have highlighted and this is what the EC is saying. But our governement is saying the exact opposite. Shows the panic building-up; and the false expectation I was referring to that the EU wouldn’t make any move towards reinstating a border non matter what.

Our government are relying on the UK keeping it's promise. If that is the case they are not fit to govern. NI is part of the UK and the UK is leaving the EU. It's as simple as that. In the absence of a deal we either put a border between us and NI or us and the EU.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But the blinkered and stupid do still exist.

They're are people still angry at FG over VAT on kids shoes in the 82 budget.

While I think Leo and Simon did well , I would be critical of Leo's love of positive PR and spin.
There should be no-one on this island unaware of the realities of a No Deal crash out.

seamus

Bob24 wrote: »

But our governement is saying the exact opposite.

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

EdgeCase

Bob24 wrote: »

How sweet.

Personally, I think it's the end of the golden era of warm Anglo-Irish relations. We've basically got very little in common with a bunch of right wing English nationalists and the DUP.

That's the unfortunate reality of it.

Until there's a major shift in British politics we are really speaking to eachother from parallel universes.

FrancieBrady

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

And a clear way out for the UK.
I think a border poll will be the price the DUP will pay for shafting |May and the Brexit project tbh.

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

Realistically we're only concerned about goods anyway, so you pick the major arteries and set up checkpoints to stop and check all southbound commercial vehicles (we don't care about northbound) while allowing passenger vehicles through unchecked on another lane.

Some will take back roads to avoid it, but if you're driving an artic on your employer's time you're going to just take the M1 and not try navigate some rural roads. Getting a grip on 80%+ of goods movements should be doable inside a week.

Yeah, this is what I've been thinking, only check southbound commercial vehicles on the main arterial routes, don't car about anything else. Any commercial organisation that's going to try circumvent this by taking boreens is most likely up to dodgy things as it is anyway.

prawnsambo wrote: »

You're parrotting a headline in The Indo where the body of the article doesn't back up the headline. As usual.

The Indo has been wishing for such things so they can go all hysterics over Brexit, that piece of trash revels in it.

EdgeCase

seamus wrote: »

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

Not only that but if the Irish Government starts to talk about the practicalities of a hard border it would feed into an acceptance of that as inevitable in London (and Brussels).

There's a lot of strategy in remaining optimistic about no need for one.

The Irish Government is successfully managing to keep some control of the narrative on this which is keeping it on the agenda as something the UK and EU need to resolve.

Russman

seamus wrote: »

No, they're not?

Our government have been playing it down because unlike Westminster we're intimately aware of the sensitivity about the border issue and that talking incessantly about a hard border will stir up the terrorists, and it will make it look like we're using a hard border as a bargaining chip or a threat.

When it's neither. It's off the table. We cannot accept any agreement which contains a provision for a hard border.

I'd agree with you, but if there's a no deal, we won't be able to accept or reject anything, its totally out of our control.
At this stage, while aware of the sensitivities around the border, it might be time to stop pandering to these sensitivities and begin to lay it out for anyone in denial that there will be a border if there's a no deal situation. It won't be Leo's fault, or the EU's fault, the blame is squarely with the UK.

Bob24

EdgeCase wrote: »

Personally, I think it's the end of the golden era of warm Anglo-Irish relations. We've basically got very little in common with a bunch of right wing English nationalists and the DUP.

That's the unfortunate reality of it.

Until there's a major shift in British politics we are really speaking to eachother from parallel universes.

I think it’s over the top to say that. Present disagreements don’t erase the common history, partly common culture, and critical trade relashionship. Plus the next step using a similar logic is that if a majority of Irish people don’t like Trump and the Republicans being in charge there we should also loosen up our relashionship with the US. It both cases I think it would be living too much in present obsessions and making too little case of both the past and the future.

Akrasia

EdgeCase wrote: »

All this talk of leaving with the UK is insane.!

You're right.

It was just a bit of kite flying by some gombeens in the UK. Nobody in their right mind would actually go along with it so it's not even worth talking about anymore.

oscarBravo

Bob24 wrote: »

...it would be fairly easy for the UK to take it easy for a while in terms of WTO-related checks, hence making it clear the the border is not being reinstated by the UK but by the EU and the republic.

I thought nobody was still peddling the Moggesque "we'll take back control of our borders by throwing our borders wide open" tripe. Looks like I was wrong.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

That's a dangerous policy. It's involving ourselves in something that we've agreed is solely the prerogative of the people of NI. And I suspect would backfire on us spectacularly. Let the conditions come about without nay interference from us. There will be plenty of people north of the border making those calls when the time comes.

Akrasia

lawred2 wrote: »

what's in it for the Indo to pen such crap?

in the business section as well!

You're talking about it aren't you?

how many clicks did that headline get? I know I certainly read it this morning when I saw it front and centre on my email digest

Hurrache

VinLieger wrote: »

This exactly, its good to see them all knowing to work together in the best interests of the country and not use this to gain leverage or points over each other, unlike the eejits next door

Except for Lisa Chambers, who seems to be both ignorant of many of the facts, and just looks at ways to take a pop at FG. She's an amateur still playing political football at schools level.

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

I thought nobody was still peddling the Moggesque "we'll take back control of our borders by throwing our borders wide open" tripe. Looks like I was wrong.

Be in denial and get ready to watch them doing what i said in case of a no deal.

In the grand scheme of things, playing the clock and forcing the republic to be first to reinstate a border is irrelevant to their future border and immigration policies.

prawnsambo

In other good news, Wetherspoons have reported lower than expected profits last year. Caused apparently by higher wage costs. Presumably because all their EU staff have left.

ilovesmybrick

Mogg is set to make a lunchtime speech calling for the ERG to do the feasible deal and that the backstop is the only absolute obstacle.(Guardian liveblog at 10am)

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

A couple of months ago I was warning here of the danger of fully relying on the EU and the fact that the Irish border issue was just used a way to pressure the UK during deal talks, meaning we would lose EU support on that matter as soon as that pressure point was not required anymore. I remember saying that on the day of a no-deal brexit (it it happens) it wouldn’t be the UK but the Rebublic which would be pushed to reinstate border checks first, upon request of the EU.

This is what the EC has confirmed and our government is still in total denial:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-rejects-idea-hard-border-needed-in-no-deal-scenario-1.3767245

Time for them to get a grasp with reality: the pressure for us to comply with EU rules and start border checks would be unmanageable for ireland whereas it would be fairly easy for the UK to take it easy for a while in terms of WTO-related checks, hence making it clear the the border is not being reinstated by the UK but by the EU and the republic.

The Irish government know perfectly well that border checks would be required if there is customs and regulatory divergence between Ireland and NI.

The difference between a crash out scenario, and a last minute concession on the border, is that in the crash out scenario, the legal responsibility for breaching the GFA is 100% solely on the British as the Irish didn't change a single term that had been agreed to in 1998 relating to the border. The UK unilaterally defaulting on their commitments means they have breached an international peace treaty.

If Ireland 'conceeds' anything that results in a hard border in NI then the border will have been re-instated by agreement of both sides.

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Mogg is set to make a lunchtime speech calling for the ERG to do the feasible deal and that the backstop is the only absolute obstacle.(Guardian liveblog at 10am)

Didn't expect him to blink first. But then I suppose, he's in the brexit at any cost camp and the nightmare scenario of the HoC voting to revoke the A50 notice is what's behind this.

LuckyLloyd

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

This isn't news. FG have done the right thing up till now, saying they won't impose a border and keeping quiet about any preparations in that regard.

Now is the time for a choreographed pivot to what everyone knew was the reality all along: Ireland will have to operate a customs border or be locked out from the Single Market / Customs Union in some way via the channel.

We knew this all along, and we know what it is we'll be doing - we're manning a border.

Hurrache

Sammy Wilson of course blaming the Irish government for where the UK parliament is at with regards the WA. The moron also thinks a no deal will be good. Mairead McGuinness smacks him down.

He then talks about the British government throwing away any leverage they have, as if somehow the DUP aren't part of that same bloody government.

ilovesmybrick

prawnsambo wrote: »

Didn't expect him to blink first. But then I suppose, he's in the brexit at any cost camp and the nightmare scenario of the HoC voting to revoke the A50 notice is what's behind this.

According to the Guardian the speech was supposed to be under embargo but that wasn't made clear. I wonder if once the DUP see the leak there's not some frantic calls being made and a backslide in the speech.

Akrasia

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Our government are relying on the UK keeping it's promise. If that is the case they are not fit to govern. NI is part of the UK and the UK is leaving the EU. It's as simple as that. In the absence of a deal we either put a border between us and NI or us and the EU.

Our government absolutely are not relying on the UK keeping their promises. It's the exact opposite. That's why we're demanding a backstop. It's there as a fall back because we know that the UK will fail to provide for a frictionless border within a fixed timescale. We're putting a legal framework in place to ensure that the UK has to follow on it's commitments.

If the UK refuse to sign an agreement with the EU and crash out, thereby tearing up all their treaties, not only with Ireland, but also all their trading and cooperation arrangements with the entire rest of the world, then this isn't our fault. It's a moment of self destruction by the UK against itself.

Captain Obvious

Akrasia wrote: »

Our government absolutely are not relying on the UK keeping their promises. It's the exact opposite. That's why we're demanding a backstop. It's there as a fall back because we know that the UK will fail to provide for a frictionless border within a fixed timescale. We're putting a legal framework in place to ensure that the UK has to follow on it's commitments.

If the UK refuse to sign an agreement with the EU and crash out, thereby tearing up all their treaties, not only with Ireland, but also all their trading and cooperation arrangements with the entire rest of the world, then this isn't our fault. It's a moment of self destruction by the UK against itself.

Their public position is based on the promise made by May at the end of 2017 in relation to the backstop.

seamus

Russman wrote: »

I'd agree with you, but if there's a no deal, we won't be able to accept or reject anything, its totally out of our control.

As mentioned above though, it does give some more leverage in any future trade talks.

I'm not sure if a border poll is an appropriate toy to play with. However, given that a general election is likely inevitable after a no-deal, the DUP will be gone, and whoever is leading the UK at that stage will do whatever they can to secure a trade deal to save England.

So if we can force *those* talks to lead with the status of Northern Ireland, there's a good chance Westminster will happily place NI into a special little box with special free trade arrangements and a border down the Irish Sea. Because the only reason Westminster cares now is because the DUP have them by the short and curlies.

At this stage, while aware of the sensitivities around the border, it might be time to stop pandering to these sensitivities and begin to lay it out for anyone in denial that there will be a border if there's a no deal situation. It won't be Leo's fault, or the EU's fault, the blame is squarely with the UK.

I was going to say that we need to get the messaging right, but tbh at this stage everyone outside the UK knows that this is all the UK's mess, and anyone inside the UK will simply hear their media state that Ireland/the EU are being difficult.

So, you're right.

Akrasia

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Leo should drop the nuclear bomb

And make it very clear that if UK leaves with no deal
then Ireland will veto any trade deal with UK unless a border poll on reunification is held

Keep repeating that from loudspeakers, it also offers a clear way out of Brexit mess for Ireland and Nothern Ireland, and hell with the rest of them

That would be spun in the UK as Ireland trying to Annex NI, rather than an Irish reunification being a consequence of the UK's own decision to leave the EU.

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

The Irish government know perfectly well that border checks would be required if there is customs and regulatory divergence between Ireland and NI.

Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening?

Nowadays you have people firing at Theresa May for potentially going back on her promise not to reinstate a border. If you are correct, it means our governement is jumping on the same boat as her in terms making very important promises it knows doesn’t have full control over, which could come back to bite us.

Christy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

This isn't news. FG have done the right thing up till now, saying they won't impose a border and keeping quiet about any preparations in that regard.

Now is the time for a choreographed pivot to what everyone knew was the reality all along: Ireland will have to operate a customs border or be locked out from the Single Market / Customs Union in some way via the channel.

We knew this all along, and we know what it is we'll be doing - we're manning a border.

The issue is doing it. It will be as tough for us as the Brits. I guess once a fair attempt is made and goods aren't coming through on a large scale we should be free of penalties.