Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

If you ask a general if they have plans for an invasion of their closest rival, they'll always say no. Doesn't mean they don't have a contingency plan just in case something unthinkable happens. It's their job.

Not part of no deal plans, as i said, is politician speak for
"It's not something we want to happen, but we will do it if we have no other choice"

It's like asking a government minister if they want to be Taoiseach. They'll always answer, "I fully support the current Taoiseach, I have no plans for what happens later" when you and I both know that they'd stick the knife in the minute they think they have a chance of winning.

Not having plans to do something is not the same as saying something won't happen.

(and they definitely do have plans for border infrastructure, they're just keeping them quiet to avoid stoking tensions on the border)

See Leroy42’s post above. We can discuss all we want about what the government really means when it is stating there won’t be a border, but as the post explains nicely our interpretation doesn’t matter and the political messeage is going to the general public no matter what - and could have consequences further down the line.

robinph

poppers wrote: »

What deal have the EU and Spain done with GB to sort out the Gibraltar border??

Is that really much of a problem?

There is a line down the middle of the runway where one country ends and the other one begins, quite simple to control access. Other than Spain would like to call it Spain, there isn't really any issue with Gibraltar.

FreudianSlippers

Leroy42 wrote: »

I agree with Bob24 in that Ireland has very much be signaling that there will not be a border no matter what. Whether they actually said that when you dissect the statements is not the point. They have allowed the message, and I am prepared to accept that it was done for diplomatic reasons, that nothing will change in respect of NI and Ireland will almost be unaffected by Brexit, in whatever guise.

Much like the problem TM has in selling her deal after telling everyone for 2 years that No Deal is better than a Bad Del, Leo is now going to face a backlash from many people who simply accepted the overall view of the government that nothing would change.

For most on here, it is not a surprise, but you would be surprised at how many in Ireland have not given this any real consideration. Much like many in the UK. It will be a shock when the border starts going up and many people will rightly ask why Leo didn't stop it and if Leo promised no border then it must be the EU making us to do.

Should they have handled it differently, well I don't know. One thing that is certain in this whole Brexit mess is that is hard to fully plan for the outcome of any particular action. Had they talked about the hard border earlier, would many in Ireland have been calling for Ireland to give concessions earlier.

But at this point I do think that Leo should come out with a full statement to the Dail and the Irish people detailing out exactly was is coming under a crash out scenario.

Hang on, I don't think that's what the Government said. Let's be clear here, the Government said they were not putting any plans in place for a hard border (or something along those lines). This statement doesn't say that there will be no hard border - in fact, the UK will be obliged to construct a hard border in the event of no-deal Brexit, regardless of the Irish Government's wishes or plans.

In the event of no-deal Brexit there will definitely be a period of time where there is unlawful trade between UK/EU via NI/Ireland. We can't erect a border on 30 March on the M1, let alone at every crossing point, so 1 of 2 things will happen:
1) A hard border will be built by both countries;
2) A deal will be done specifically in relation to Ireland (island) to prevent a hard border.

There will be no unilateral hard border from Ireland (Republic).

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

100% behind this. The real is that with the message the government is currently sending about no accepting a border no matter what, if the no-deal scenario materialises we will have a serious institutional crisis and complete government paralysis at a critical time for the country.

Not really, In fact, if Ireland have said they will do everything we can to avoid a hard border, and then britain crash out, and the EU make it clear that Ireland have a duty to protect the integrity of the EU border (as we all knew all along) then the Irish government can say that they are reluctantly imposing the minimum border required to ensure the integrity of the single market and the EU.

It's political pragmatism. Once this minimal border is up, we'll see where it goes from there. If sectarian violence kicks off and there is a requirement for military presence on the border, that will only happen down the line, not on day one.

Again, I sincerely doubt a no deal will transpire as Grieve et al will push through an amendments giving the HOC ample opportunity to pull back from the brink before the deadline.

Leroy42

Bob24 wrote: »

100% behind this. The real is that with the message the government is currently sending about no accepting a border no matter what, if the no-deal scenario materialises we will have a serious institutional crisis and complete government paralysis at a critical time for the country.

Well I don't agree with that. I do think that we are preparing, my issue is that it is focused solely on the government and agencies and not on the population as a whole.

I fully accepted a hard border ages ago, pretty much as soon as the vote to leave, but many people have simply ignored it, confident that the government keep saying nothing will change.

The fact that Leo met with all the leaders give me confidence that behind the scenes the body politic understand the reality and thus chaos won't ensue (political chaos anyway). The two biggest parties (FG &FF) both seem pretty aligned on this and I doubt very much that Martin is not fully aware of what is going on.

But as a previous post said, two months is time enough to start dealing with the realities. The EU kicked it off yesterday by stating the obvious, but the obvious that dare not speak it name up till that point.

In saying all that, I fully believe that No deal will not happen, not in any long term (ie longer than a few months) anyway and as such I think we will never actually get around to building the border.

On Brexit D1, nothing really changes as the UK have not changed any regulations. What will change is how the UK is treated at the EU borders already in place but I think will we will be given a certain amount of time to move on the border, time during which I fully expect the saner people in the HoC to finally get No deal back off the table.

Seth Brundle

Bob24 wrote: »

Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening?

Nowadays you have people firing at Theresa May for potentially going back on her promise not to reinstate a border. If you are correct, it means our governement is jumping on the same boat as her in terms making very important promises it knows doesn’t have full control over, which could come back to bite us.

When did we promise not to set up a border?
Whether or not we have a border is effectively out of their control.
It is dependent on whether the Brits agree to a CU deal with the EU or not. If they decide to head for the crash out then a border will be required to protect our (our as in EU) interests.

The EU and the Irish government couldn't be trying to negotiate the best outcome with the UK whilst saying that they'd be erecting a border. That would have been stupid. So they told it like it was - they weren't planning on setting up a border.

Bob24

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well I don't agree with that. I do think that we are preparing, my issue is that it is focused solely on the government and agencies and not on the population as a whole.

This is close to my point though. I also have no doubt that behind closed doors preparations for worst cases scenario are happening.

But when I mention institutional and political paralysis I am referring to your point of not preparing the population.

Let’s say a time comes whereby we have to start border checks and the government comes out to say “we have to do this because of our EU commitments and actually we have done our due diligence in the past, we are 100% ready”.

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.

Hurrache

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ireland is more likely to be capable of running a technological border for UK goods entering the EU (given these goods will also be entering other EU Member States) but there is no way the UK could run the border in a no-deal scenario without a hard border. That wouldn't be the Irish government implementing it technically.

If it came to it I don't think implementing a border for the purposes of customs is that huge a deal for Ireland.

Most of the previous infrastructure that was there was put up by the British for terrorism purposes, and we don't care what enters north from south.

Seth Brundle

Bob24 wrote: »

Let’s say at times comes whereby we have to start border checks and the government comes out to say “we have to do this and have done our due diligence is the part, we are 100% ready”.

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.

Backlash towards whom?
We are being forced into setting up a hard border (assuming it's a hard Brexit). We (ireland and the EU) have no control over this. Why do you choose to not understand this simple concept?
As for political paralysis - Leo and Simon are keeping all other parties in the loop about this. None of them like this possibility but I'll wager that the other parties won't make political capital out of it as it would easily backfire on them.

Hurrache

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Is there any source that anyone can find to the actual statement made by Margaritis Schinas or is it just as reported by the media? I'd be interested to see the context.

https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1087746504033558529

Seth Brundle

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Somewhat agree however the British have involved us against our will in Brexit and now even proposing we pull out of the EU and leave with them

A drowning man will clutch at anything!

Hurrache

Kay Burley and David Blevin wandering back and forth over the border at Enniskillen this morning live on Sky News showing the reality that the border these days is only really a border in name.

Bob24

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Backlash towards whom?
We are being forced into setting up a hard border (assuming it's a hard Brexit). We (ireland and the EU) have no control over this. Why do you choose to not understand this simple concept?
As for political paralysis - Leo and Simon are keeping all other parties in the loop about this. None of them like this possibility but I'll wager that the other parties won't make political capital out of it as it would easily backfire on them.

Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it. Easy then for political opponents to call Varadkar an incompetent and a liar.

murphaph

Leroy42 wrote: »

On Brexit D1, nothing really changes as the UK have not changed any regulations. What will change is how the UK is treated at the EU borders already in place but I think will we will be given a certain amount of time to move on the border, time during which I fully expect the saner people in the HoC to finally get No deal back off the table.

Well on Brexit D1 in the event of no deal the UK ceases to be a member of the EU and there is nothing left to talk about except perhaps applying for membership of the EU again. It will be too late by then. We would have to grit our teeth while the UK imploded enough for either NI to leave the UK or for the UK itself to reconsider its position.

There would be a period of border controls, light at first, but getting more invasive as pressure is put on Ireland to protect the external frontier of the single market. This pressure we could expect (rightly so) to be immense should the UK opt to begin importing cheap, substandard food to feed its people.

listermint

Bob24 wrote: »

Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it.

Are you saying they shouldnt have planned for it ?

And also in the same breath saying they should have played into the british hands by saying they would put one up ?


Im confused by your standpoint and your understanding of the negotiations.

Enzokk

Bob24 wrote: »

This is close to my point though. I also have no doubt that being closed doors preparations for worst cases scenario are happening.

But when I mention institutional and political paralysis I am referring to your point of not preparing the population.

Let’s say a time comes whereby we have to start border checks and the government comes out to say “we have to do this because of our EU commitments and actually we have done our due diligence in the past, we are 100% ready”.

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.

Its politics. Do you think Ireland should have been the one to say we will break our obligations of the GFA by putting up a border?

farmchoice

Bob24 wrote: »

Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it.

i think you might be underestimating the intelligence and political nous of the Irish population at large. particularly when it comes to Brexit.


when it is as obvious as it it now is that this is a very British mess very very few Irish people are are going to turn around and blame the Irish government for it.

robinph

Bob24 wrote: »

Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it. Easy then for political opponents to call Varadkar an incompetent and a liar.

The amount of nonsense that the UK media have managed to land the blame for incorrectly at the feet of the EU over the years it really shouldn't be much of a hard sell for Ireland to direct the blame for the border where it really belongs in this case.

Dyr

You wonder if the UK is willing to accept the loss of goodwill that a no brexit hard border will create

You also wonder to what degree the EU would be willing to manifest that lack of good will, i.e trade embargoes.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

I would be shocked if everyone in the Republic didn't envisage that there would Border Controls South bound in the event of No Deal Brexit from the EU side of things.

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

You wonder if the UK is willing to accept the loss of goodwill that a no brexit hard border will create

You also wonder to what degree the EU would be willing to manifest that lack of good will, i.e trade embargoes.

I don't think there's any more goodwill to lose, not from the EU anyway at this stage.

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1087746504033558529

Thanks. That's very different than what's being reported about the EU seeking concessions from Ireland to construct a hard border.

Bob24

listermint wrote: »

Are you saying they shouldnt have planned for it ?

And also in the same breath saying they should have played into the british hands by saying they would put one up ?


Im confused by your standpoint and your understanding of the negotiations.

Pretty clear from the start: I’m saying the government should stop saying no border will ever be accepted. Said it several times and never mentioned we shouldn’t prepare for it.

Leroy42

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Lets be realistic here purpose of most physical hard borders is to control movement of people AND goods, we dont care for movement of people as that will continue, so the purpose of a border will be to ensure integrity of Irish and Single markets

How can we simply opt out of tracking people though? Surely the EU will wnat to know if Non Eu nationals are coming in to the EU? FOM only starts within the EU?

Bob24

Leroy42 wrote: »

How can we simply opt out of tracking people though? Surely the EU will wnat to know if Non Eu nationals are coming in to the EU? FOM only starts within the EU?

I guess when it comes to movement of people it is more Schengen which is relevant and we are not part of it (if someone illegally enters ireland it doesn’t mean they can easily bypass Schengen border checks as when they try to fly from Dublin to Madrid they will face Schengen border checks there, so we wouldn’t break the schengen area by not having border checks).

It is more of an Irish issue: do we want to let people who are potentially legal in the Uk but illegal in the republic freely cross the border with no checks. The status quo is that we accept this problem in the CTA and aren’t trying to address it with a border: for exemple currently a non-EU person could have a legal UK residence card and live in Belfast, but have no documents allowing them to enter the republic. Yet if they drive from Belfast to Dublin they will face no border check to verify their documents.

Having said that the issue would be that if we even want to join Schengen this would be a clear show stopper.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please refrain from resorting to insults and posting one-line posts.

FreudianSlippers

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Lets be realistic here purpose of most physical hard borders is to control movement of people AND goods, we dont care for movement of people as that will continue, so the purpose of a border will be to ensure integrity of Irish and Single markets

Ireland will not put up physical border infrastructure as we don't have to check if people are allowed to cross (they still can and will), what we do have to check are goods being transported inwards.

You're partially correct from the Irish perspective (and partially incorrect, but I'll deal with that below). However it definitely doesn't work the other way around, as many EU nationals here will not be part of CTA rules. Don't see how the UK can manage that without a hard border unless they just don't care about NI and will check passports going into GB (which I doubt the DUP are cool with).

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

We are not part of Schengen and UK citizens can live/work/travel here (And vice versa) without checks due to earlier treaty.

edit: lets hypothetically assume that a boat of immigrants somehow arrives in Northern Ireland, these guys then travel onto Ireland, how do they proceed onto rest of Europe (Schengen) as there are checks at all ports/airports. Thankfully due to our location and non membership of Schengen external (to EU) migration thru Ireland is not an option

Technically, the Schengen rules apply to all external borders of the EU pursuant to the Treaty of Amsterdam, regardless of Ireland/UK not being in the Schengen area. I don't, however, think the EU would place too much onus on Ireland to actually implement this with the UK given the unique history on this island.

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

Two things:
1) we agree about unicorns, but not about the no-deal scenario: it might not be the most likely but it is far from impossible

Oh, I think it is quite likely to happen, they could quite easily blunder into if things go a little awry in Westminster.


They just can't stay in No Deal land for long enough for us to put up more than one or two portakabins at the border. If it lasted 3 months, First Citizen Corbyn and Keir Starmer will be appealing for a deal, or at least food aid.


Absolutely, chaps, no problem. But first, about that border...

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

if the no-deal scenario materialises we will have a serious institutional crisis and complete government paralysis at a critical time for the country.

We will indeed have a crisis, supply chains via the UK will be broken suddenly, there will be lots of chaos. Sterling and stock markets will do mad things, flights will be in a heap, it'll be mayhem.


But the Border is a long term issue, not something that will blow up overnight.

Hurrache

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.