Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Zubeneschamali

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Don't see how the UK can manage that without a hard border unless they just don't care about NI and will check passports going into GB (which I doubt the DUP are cool with).

They have always said from Day 1 that they were not going to control illegal immigration at border checkpoints, in Ireland or at the channel ports. They will try to control it by making landlords, employers and benefit offices demand "papers please" from everyone, and illegals won't have papers.

FreudianSlippers

TM refusing to answer whether her Government will rule out customs union at PMQ. She did throw the question back at Corbyn beautifully though. :pac:

LeinsterDub

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But the Border is a long term issue, not something that will blow up overnight.

I don't know we all seen what happened in Derry on the weekend. A bomb on the border on the 30th is a very real possibility

boggerman1

boggerman1 wrote: »

Car crash interview by Michael creed on morning Ireland.still troting out the line that we don't want a hard border.everyone knows that there was going to have to be borders reintroduced once Britain decided to walk.if the EU border is now going to be Calais sure we in the south are going to be in the EU but outside the EU border or am I wrong.agriculture will be f**ked so

More details on Creed's interview here. It's embarrassing tbh.

https://www.thejournal.ie/morning-ireland-creed-4454433-Jan2019/

Seth Brundle

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What do we care if other EU nationals use Ireland to travel to UK? thats a problem for UK, if they put back physical border infrastructure then we all know where that will endup

In time, the UK will too require a physical border if they have no agreement with the EU. If the UK wants to create a trade deal with a non-EU country, then they need to protect their borders. It's complete bull for them to suggest otherwise.
Why would a country arrange a trade deal with the UK whilst products are openly entering the UK from the EU with no duties or whatever.

kalych

Bob24 wrote: »

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.

I do see some reason in this point. I likewise would have preferred if our government refrained from definitively ruling out the hard border in case of No-deal Brexit. This issue should be sidestepped more masterfully, provided it's obvious the border will have to go up.

We already have Joe Duffy callers blaming FFG for all the sins under the sun. It's best we didn't give them any more ammunition.

EdgeCase

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

We could potentially see people arriving in UK lets say from India to study, then once their visa expires traveling to Ireland and working in black economy here (probably already happens) but that doesnt get them any closer to being able to travel to mainland Europe due to Schengen checks.

I dont see this as an issue, as we as a country can choose to ignore this form of migration if it keeps the North from troubles and having to install a really hard border.

That situation already exists as Ireland and Britain have a free-travel area without a common visa system and neither issue Schengen Visas.

It's very likely that EU citizens and UK entering continental European countries will continue to do so, visa-free for up to 90 days, much like Canadians, Americans, Australians and so on have always done and the Irish-UK CTA arrangement will continue as is for movement of people and residency rights in both directions.

If the UK were to go without visa waivers, you'd be in a situation where UK-European relations would be more like UK-China relations, which is both unlikely and a ludicrous prospect.

Control of rights to work and so on are regulated using other systems i.e. you'd be unable to apply for a UK National Insurance number, or an Irish PPS number unless you'd rights to live in the jurisdiction you were applying to. So, would be unable to gain normal employment. In Ireland, PPSN is already used for things like renting, opening bank accounts and so on, so it's quite difficult to function here without being registered. In some ways, we're more regulated than the UK is on some of those things, without going down the route of a xenophobic 'hostile environment'.

A lot of these things are already the case. For example, if you're from China or India, you could hold an Irish or UK visa, there's an open border, but you don't have the right to cross it unannounced and you certainly don't have the right to live/work in the opposite jurisdiction with the wrong visa and work permit.

This stuff has all worked fine and has been a total non issue for many years.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.

That's not just ironic - that's downright offensive.

funkey_monkey

What is all this craic about the elites pursuing brexit due to the upcoming EU rules on tax avoidance? I've seen it being claimed regularly online - along with other various claims about Russia, etc.

I'm currently putting it down as another mad conspiracy theory, but does it have any legs?

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

Having said that the issue would be that if we even want to join Schengen this would be a clear show stopper.

The GFA means we never really had a choice about schengen as long as the UK were opted out.

Ireland, unlike the UK, actually respects our obligations under international treaties.

joeysoap

How is sterling stronger?

FreudianSlippers

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What do we care if other EU nationals use Ireland to travel to UK? thats a problem for UK, if they put back physical border infrastructure then we all know where that will endup

That's exactly what I said.

Akrasia

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

Immediately before the referendum, sterling was trading against Euros at 1 : 1.26
As of this week, it's 1 : 1.13

Before the referendum campaign began, it was 1 : 1:43


It's stronger because it's weaker. A weak gbp is great for UK exports (according to the brexiteers)

funkey_monkey

Interesting to read the comments on this tweet. They still think that UK are not going to have to do any checks at the border:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1088021455433011200

funkey_monkey

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

lawred2

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

Hurrache

Poland's favourite Tory MP has said they won't back down on the backstop as it will lead to a reunification vote of Ireland. He's as mad as a hatter, and everything he says is being torn apart on Sky News.

Hurrache

funkey_monkey wrote: »

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

lawred2 wrote: »

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

I think he means a backtrack on what has been said yesterday?

Infini

Realistically at the moment the border for all practical purposes is a non issue until we know for certain the UK is going to recklessly crash out in a blaze of idiocy and ignorant stupidity. At that point it's likely that TEMPORARY customs controls at that border will have to be implemented while the UK basically implodes on itself. It's simply a practical issue right now. That being said event's will likely move swiftly in the event of a certain Hard Brexit as it will be an unprecedented event which will likely have the UK in a heap by the end of the year. Realistically if they think the WA was bad wait till after Brexit when there could be a treaty with far less favorable conditions than what they have as their actions will have caused damage all round and they'll be on the hook for it.

At that point a number of things could happen but one of them could be a border poll. Even if the current government will deny it it will likely collapse shortly after Brexit as people will be out for blood at that point. It's likely given all polling data that in the event of a hard brexit this is going to backfire spectacularly on the DUP as people will be suffering and the one way out for them is reunification. Not everyone will agree its an unfortunate fact but seeing upwards of a 70% in favor of a UI up there would make in inevitable really. Some might think we would be wrong to demand a border poll but if there's upwards of 70% support for a UI at that point and things are that messy with the UK it would be the most sensible thing because it would not be "annexing" NI but rather giving NI as a whole the choice on what they want to do.

That being said the last thing the EU want's to be doing right now is trying to throw Ireland under the bus for the malicious and reckless actions of a broken UK. If anything if they're concerned about the border they would likely need to try and help out especially knowing how bad things could get along it. They should also be prepared to put serious diplomatic pressure on the UK to come to a realistic solution at the same time as ultimately they're the instigators of this whole debacle not Ireland.

I would take any media report with a good load of salt right now the simple truth is noone will truly know what will happen come March 29th, everyone can plan for these things but all the plans made cant account for the actual RL situation on the ground once it actually happens.

spacecoyote

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

I could be wrong, but thought I saw a headline that they are crediting the bump to the fact that Labour have said that they are likely to back the blockage of a no-deal brexit

10000maniacs

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

Over the last few days it has gained ground on speculation that Article 50 will be extended.

An Ciarraioch

In a no-deal scenario, it would be essentially an existential and philosophical dilemma, as much as a political one to be faced - a land border may be unpalatable, but still the lesser of two evils, faced with the implications ensuing from the alternative in the Celtic Sea. Still, in the first scenario, much of the Anglo-Irish trade could be checked in ports and airports, making the cross-Border commerce the sole issue requiring physical land inspections.

downcow

downcow wrote: »

That said I believe common sense will prevail at or after the 11th hour. The backstop will be watered down (or fudged) and we will all move on and build improving relationships in the years ahead. I don'r expect either poverty or the jackpot for UK or EU for that matter. I do also think ROI are in the shakiest position but trust that EU & UK will play ball and make it work in the end.
it

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

What did you tell us, what arrogance?

A temporary safeguard to avoid erecting a physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit would serve no purpose, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said.

In an interview to newspapers Le Monde, Rzeczpospolita and Luxemburger Wort, Mr Barnier said the current backstop proposal over the border was the only option on the table.

"The question of limiting the backstop in time has already been discussed twice by European leaders. This is the only possible option because an insurance is of no use if it is time limited," Mr Barnier said.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Barnier has literally just said they won't agree to a time-limited backstop (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0123/1024915-brexit/)... so what do you think is "now beginning"?

I'm not at all sure what "the roi" has to do with this? Something to do with UK countries not being in Euro 2020?

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically.

Public backlash? Do you mean the public that voted overwhelmingly to drop Ireland's constitutional territorial claim over the Six Counties, or the public that is overwhelmingly in favour of Ireland's continued membership of the EU?

For all our criticism of the DUP's obsession with Westminster, and the average English Joe Soap's ignorance of what goes on in Ireland, the vast majority of 21st Century Irishmen and women really don't give more than a second's thought to what goes on "up North" either - unless they're planning a trip to the Titanic exhibition, going on a stag night, or happen to have relatives who live along the border.

Politically, the Republican parties in the North must be rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of any kind of barrier going up that is hard-enough to remind ordinary people that they are no longer part of the developed world when they cross into NI, and to inflict as much damage as possible to the NI economy. Both will hasten a vote on the reunification of Ireland.

The governments of Dublin and Westminster will be aware of this. For all the ERG's bluster, whoever is sitting in No.11 Downing Street will do the sums and see that there's no way the UK can afford to re-establish and permanently patrol a border between NI and the RoI when there's so much more of the UK's economy that needs propping up. Ireland's Minister for Finance won't be too keen, either, to take on the cost of reintegrating NI into a RoI that's still weathering the effects of the Brexit storm. So both governments will have an incentive to do something to (a) keep costs down; and (b) avoid precipitating a reunification referendum. An Irish Sea border addresses both of those points, and it will undoubtedly be one of the first items on the agenda in the event of a No Deal Brexit - especially if a general election returns a DUP-free government to Westminster.

MrMusician18

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

No compromise can be reached when the UK is not willing to compromise.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^

You told us what? All of these variations on the border theme were dicussed in version 1 of this thread!

But if you're in the mood for telling us things, how about answering some of the many questions that you've avoided so far, e.g.:
as a born-again Leaver, what specific (identifiable, quantifiable, fact-based) advantages do you see for Northern Ireland arising from a No-Deal Brexit?

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Mod: Cease the inflammatory posting please.

Russman

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Not quite sure where you get the "arrogance" bit from tbh ? Arrogant to want to protect the GFA ? to protect the CU & SM of which both are continuing to be members of ?
For sure Ireland will suffer in a crash out, but not nearly as much as the UK and particularly NI. Nobody really wants that at all so why can't the UK, when its bringing in new legislation (i.e. Brexit) respect its existing commitments under the GFA and/or make sure that the new rules its bringing in are compliant with its obligations under treaty ?