Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Infini

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Arrogance would be far from the term I would use for Ireland and the EU the Brexiteers have a monopoly on that. This is a mess of the UKs making plain and simple, noone but the UK wanted this. On top of that all attempts have been to keep the most practical solution possible and the WA was just the first step yet Westminster cant pass it because of ideology and dysfunctional politics up to this point.

Lets be clear the status quo was fine because it gave everyone the best of both worlds. Brexit is forcing choices to be made far sooner than they'd like to be expecially in the likes of a UI for example.

Strazdas

funkey_monkey wrote: »

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

By "backtracking", he means backtracking on the statement yesterday that there will be a hard border in Ireland. There may be a feeling that the statement went too far and left Ireland hanging out to dry and without any advance warning it was coming.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

You told us what? All of these variations on the border theme were dicussed in version 1 of this thread!

But if you're in the mood for telling us things, how about answering some of the many questions that you've avoided so far, e.g.:
as a born-again Leaver, what specific (identifiable, quantifiable, fact-based) advantages do you see for Northern Ireland arising from a No-Deal Brexit?

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

Professor Moriarty

In the event of a hard border with tariffs and regulatory checks, NI will become an economic and societal basket case. Anyone who doesn't understand this doesn't know what they are talking about.

LeinsterDub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No compromise can be reached when the UK is not willing to compromise.

No compromise can be reached when the UK doesn't have a position formed from which is compromise is more accurate in my opinion

Hurrache

So Panasonic, P&O, Dyson, and now today Sony have announced they're moving their headquarters out of the UK. I'm sure I've missed others.

Zubeneschamali

10000maniacs wrote: »

Over the last few days it has gained ground on speculation that Article 50 will be extended.

If withdrawing A50 gets any momentum, expect to see Sterling strengthen significantly.


The more likely No Deal looks, the weaker it'll get.

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

Expect when being separated from the UK suits you of course?

downcow

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: Cease the inflammatory posting please.

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

Sam Russell

The bigest problem with the No-deal crash out is the fact that NI leaves the EU VAT system. It opens up a VAT carosel where goods are moved solely with a view to claiming VAT refunds illegally.

That is much more of a problem with the border than tariffs.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

So the UK are putting your, and everyone in NI, futures at risk for no benefit to you at all. So NI takes the bulk of the risk for which there is no upside.

NI voted to remain, but you are happy enough for the rest of the UK to put you at risk when you good get what you want, staying in the UK, without any risks if the DUP had pushed for as soft a Brexit as possible.

Yet it is the EU and Ireland that you feel need to compromise to avoid the potential problems that your own government have created?

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In a no-deal scenario, it would be essentially an existential and philosophical dilemma, as much as a political one to be faced - a land border may be unpalatable, but still the lesser of two evils, faced with the implications ensuing from the alternative in the Celtic Sea. Still, in the first scenario, much of the Anglo-Irish trade could be checked in ports and airports, making the cross-Border commerce the sole issue requiring physical land inspections.

In terms of a border, the Irish Sea border is the lesser of two evils given that it partly exists already. The land border is a huge upset to all of Ireland.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop

Maybe you should change your choice of news source! The EU has not caved on this issue.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Your one time posited neutrality is wearing a bit thin at this stage.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

Not really... what EU/Irish Government arrogance were you referring to?

BonnieSituation

The reactions if the last few days have shown exactly why we have been keeping our traps shut.

10000maniacs

downcow wrote: »

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

I don't see any reference to this in either the Telegraph or Post.

FrancieBrady

10000maniacs wrote: »

I don't see any reference to this in either the Telegraph or Post.

Indeed. Barnier has re-iterated strongly that a backstop with a time limit is useless.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Indeed. Barnier has re-iterated strongly that a backstop with a time limit is useless.

He's gone further and pretty much put the kibosh on any chance of an Article 50 extension. The obvious one of requiring something to extend for and the imponderable of what happens to the Euro elections. His view seems to be that there are legal issues that haven't been explored (implying that he doesn't want any UK MEPs cluttering up the works) and therefore any extension has to stop before then.

Havockk

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's gone further and pretty much put the kibosh on any chance of an Article 50 extension. The obvious one of requiring something to extend for and the imponderable of what happens to the Euro elections. His view seems to be that there are legal issues that haven't been explored (implying that he doesn't want any UK MEPs cluttering up the works) and therefore any extension has to stop before then.

That would force the UK to just flat out cancel the whole shebang.

prawnsambo

Havockk wrote: »

That would force the UK to just flat out cancel the whole shebang.

Cancel it or vote for May's deal. Which I think is May's cunning plan tbf.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

To be fair to downcow, the "None" in his reply quoted above was a direct answer to my question asking more or less the same! So at least that's that cleared up.

What I'd now like to know, from a self-confessed, on-the-fence-turned-Leaver such as downcow, is: what advantages do you get from being symbolically united with the UK in a no-deal Brexit that make a hard border with the RoI a price worth paying? I say "symbolically" because - as has been discussed many times already - there is already a socio-political and physical Irish Sea border separating NI from GB.

Sierra Oscar

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Please read the articles you are referencing sir, and maybe ideally don't ever reference a rag like the Indo but that is only a suggestion.

They aren't demanding any concessions. They are simply stating the obvious. This is a choreographed political move, and I would be shocked if it wasn't organised with the Irish cabinet (Coveney met Barnier a couple of days ago). There is no change of position here, nothing new.

It's merely time for Ireland to start lifting the lid on border preparations. That time would always come. Two months out is a perfectly reasonable time to start doing what must be done.

Have you actually watched any of the interviews by Government Ministers over the last 24 hours? Did you listen to Minister Creed on Morning Ireland? The EU Commission statement clearly came as a surprise to the Government. Doesn’t look to be a well choreographed move to me.

Nonetheless it’s positive to see Barnier signalling today that the backstop cannot be diluted.

First Up

The backstop only works if the UK stays inside the Customs Union or agrees to border procedures on goods crossing from Britain to NI. If it can't do either of those, then there will be checks on goods moving between NI and ROI, as well as on goods moving between ROI and Britain. None of that is new or a surprise.

How and where those checks take place has been the subject of a considerable amount of work and discussion within ROI and between ROI and the EU at both commercial and governmental levels. It has also been explored by traders and transport companies in Ireland, NI, Britain and the rest of the EU.

There is scope for some flexibility (or "fudge" if you prefer) on "local" goods crossing the border. The EU has considerable experience and can draw on a large body of practice in how sensitive borders operate elsewhere. A good example is Croatia, which has an external EU border with three countries it was one a part of and where local trading and social practices have continued without any real problem. Other examples include the Lithuanian border with Belarus, the Estonian and Latvian borders with Russia and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania. There is almost certainly a bit of "leakage" in all these cases but if it is localised and contained, it is tolerated.

There are more complicated issues; goods originating in or imported into Britain that are shipped to ROI for local consumption/use or shipped to ROI for onward shipment to mainland EU. The EU has been aware of all this from day One and has been looking at it from all angles. Shipping companies, port authorities, importers, retailers and a host of government and semi-government agencies have been designing solutions - and spotting potential loopholes. Technology, spot checks and probably a few other tricks will be deployed on this.

The EU's main concern is preventing attempts to exploit border sensitivities and use Ireland as a backdoor to or from the Single Market. This will almost certainly be monitored at Irish ports and it will be up to shippers to satisfy all requirements. In all of this, there has been 100% commitment to enabling Irish trade with the rest of the EU continue as fully and freely as it does now.

A Crash Out and a no Backstop situation would be a pain in the ass for many but you can rest assured that solutions will be put in place that both preserve the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland's participation therein.

Quin_Dub

Just as an aside , I assume that in the event of a "No Deal" Brexit , Gibraltar is also goosed as I have absolutely no doubt that the Spanish will be there with the gates and chains right as the clock strikes Brexit..

Leroy42

Services are far more important to Gibraltar I would have thought, and there doesn't seem to have been anything agreed about that AFAIK

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1088089818096193537


So to take back control they'll either ask the Polish to block an A50 extension or now just shut down parliament until Match 30th

robinph

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Just as an aside , I assume that in the event of a "No Deal" Brexit , Gibraltar is also goosed as I have absolutely no doubt that the Spanish will be there with the gates and chains right as the clock strikes Brexit..

But there is no requirement for Spain to keep the border open at the same time as keeping the border closed. There is also no problem with flying stuff in*, or by boat, from the rest of the UK as it's all the same country and no kind of in at the same time as kind of out scenario going on.

*Other than the flying over EU airspace bit.

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

Each of the four individual nations have their own laws-not just NI-if the people of NI are happy to remain in the UK that's their choice if some choose not to partake in voting etc then its their loss.If NI demands a UI vote that's fair enough but until that happens it has to be accepted people prefer to be part of the UK.