Brexit Discussion Thread VI

jm08

Nody wrote: »

For Spanish government (both main parties) it's a great "Oh look over there" thing to have Gibraltar to point to to be fair. If they got it back it would be pretty much useless to them beyond "hey monkies!" but much as Brexit it's not about facts but feelings.

As far as I know there is a huge issue with smuggling through Gibraltar, particularly cigarettes (which means a huge loss of revenue to the Spanish state). Andorra poses a similar problem.

On Sunday, the government of Gibraltar admitted that London and Brussels are putting the final touches on a specific protocol for the British Overseas Territory in the UK/EU Withdrawal Agreement, and that there will be “a set of practical measures spelled out in separate arrangements with Spain covering tax cooperation, police and customs cooperation, the environment, citizens’ rights and tobacco.”

Here is a fuller article listing all the issues that Spain has with Gibraltar.

https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/23/from-unemployment-to-tobacco-trafficking-why-gibraltar-is-a-brexit-red-line-for-spain

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

My statement is based on dozens of polls which show there are more people in NI who feel British rather than Irish So if it is such a severe border so as to diminish nationality then the rest follows.

You're assuming that those living in NI that identify as British, want to leave the EU and should the UK head for a hard Brexit, want a hard border.
The result of the referendum would suggest otherwise.

downcow wrote: »

Very few people here want a border at all but I just believe the intransigence of Eu and roi are forcing a border. Although that may be moving today. The cracks are appearing so hopefully very soft border wherever

In what way has there been intransigence from the EU and RoI?
Where are there cracks appearing? The EU have not changed their line at all. It is the UK who don't know what they want and can't agree amongst themselves.

RobMc59

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The problem is that if the Tories even suggested this, the DUP would pull support and there'd be a GE before HoC could vote on this I believe?

Hopefully,the decision of whether to cancel brexit or not will be taken out of May's hands and will be given back to the people to decide-the shenanigans in Westminster,especially by the tories is sickening-you know they are getting desperate listening to the threats and warnings coming from them-Corbyn has his faults but his"the door maybe open but no one is listening "is true.

Call me Al

Dytalus wrote: »

The EU has, from it's EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) provided just shy of €170 million so far during the 2014-2020 funding cycle for Northern Ireland. This funding is dedicated to development of farming regions, rather than direct subsidies to farmers.

Meanwhile, through the common agricultural policy funding, Northern Ireland was given roughly €220 million for 2014-2020 in pillar 2 funding, and over €2 billion in Pillar 1.

That's a lot of money the UK is going to have to start paying their farmers in Northern Ireland to make up for lost EU Funding on top of the already £10 billion a year they spend propping up NI anyway. To say this is not a problem (or, as you phrased it "I don’t agree with the two negatives you outline") is being a little bit too hopeful.

True, the UK contributes considerably more than that per year to the EU budget, but that all gets pooled into other funds, like the various EU Structural and Investment Funds..which prioritise the poorer regions of Europe in terms of giving funding - a lot of which are in the UK. Are those regions going to be getting money alongside NI farmers? How much? Will the UK be able to afford it, or will it all get pooled into London like so much of their money does?

Since the EUSF are geared towards propping up poorer regions, the underdeveloped parts of the UK have been supported - effectively - by the wealthier regions in Germany and France which get proportionately less due to their greater development. Do you think the British government will properly balance the funding and subsidies which previously came out of EUSF funding, or will they (as HMG has a history of doing) prioritise Britain over NI?

You're pinning a lot on the good will of HMG towards NI, when they've shown time and time again that NI is considered more a thorn in their side than an worthwhile member of the Union.

Thanks for those hard facts dytalus.

It make the £1billion Arlene gets to shell out in the 6 counties look a bit like 30 pieces of silver.

Dytalus

Call me Al wrote: »

Thanks for those hard facts dytalus.

It make the £1billion Arlene gets to shell out in the 6 counties look a bit like 30 pieces of silver.

No problem. I work in an area related to EU Structural Funds so I already had an idea of the figures, just had to dig out publically available docs to show them. It does make the £1 billion payout seem...rather irrelevant in the grand scheme. It's an extra 10% on the existing annual subsidy though, so not to be sniffed at from a Northern Irish perspective.

Interestingly, while looking up links to back up the figures, I found out the UK pays more to NI as it does to the EU every year. £10.8 billion to Northern Ireland, versus £13 billion to the EU (while they would pay £18b, they get a £5b rebate/discount). Combined with the total EU funding the UK gets (£4b) the net EU contribution is in the region of £9 billion/year.

In terms of a share of incoming EU Structural Funds, Wales comes out way more per head than the rest of the UK. NI is second, and still gets more than the UK average in terms of funding per head.

The more I look into this, the more I realise just how dangerous the situation is for Northern Ireland economically and monetarily. I don't want our neighbours to the north to get whacked especially hard in Brexit, but it seriously looks like they're going to get the worst of it out of the members of the Union.

Makes me angry, if I'm honest.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

As far as I know there is a huge issue with smuggling through Gibraltar, particularly cigarettes (which means a huge loss of revenue to the Spanish state). Andorra poses a similar problem.



Here is a fuller article listing all the issues that Spain has with Gibraltar.

https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/23/from-unemployment-to-tobacco-trafficking-why-gibraltar-is-a-brexit-red-line-for-spain

As a matter of interest,are you aware that the Canary Islands are Spanish colonies,-Which rather diminishes their "outrage"in regards to Gibraltar perhaps?

tuxy

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a matter of interest,are you aware that the Canary Islands are Spanish colonies,-Which rather diminishes their "outrage"in regards to Gibraltar perhaps?

Do the Islands want independence or does any other country have a claim on them?

I think the Spanish enclaves in Morocco are a better example.

Call me Al

There's a representative from the Ulster Farmer's Union Ivor Ferguson on Radio1 now saying that a no deal or hard Brexit will be a disaster for NI.
Their main concern revolves around the huge tariffs. A tariff of £40 per lamb going to ROI will leave 50% of their farmers our of business he says.

VinLieger

Call me Al wrote: »

There's a representative from the Ulster Farmer's Union Ivor Ferguson on Radio1 now saying that a no deal or hard Brexit will be a disaster for NI.
Their main concern revolves around the huge tariffs. A tariff of £40 per lamb going to ROI will leave 50% of their farmers our of business he says.

Im shocked downcow once agaIn has shown they havent a clue what they are talking about

RobMc59

tuxy wrote: »

Do the Islands want independence or does any other country have a claim on them?

I think the Spanish enclaves in Morocco are a better example.

Good point about the Canaries- I think the enclaves in Morocco are no longer under Spanish rule.

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a matter of interest,are you aware that the Canary Islands are Spanish colonies,-Which rather diminishes their "outrage"in regards to Gibraltar perhaps?

A, the entire native population of the Canaries is Spanish, and B, it is an autonomous community, like the Basque Country and Catalonia.

eire4

RobMc59 wrote: »

Good point about the Canaries- I think the enclaves in Morocco are no longer under Spanish rule.

No Ceuta and Melilla are stil under Spanish rule.

tuxy

RobMc59 wrote: »

Good point about the Canaries- I think the enclaves in Morocco are no longer under Spanish rule.

Ceuta and Melilla are both in the EU with massive fences and border security.
Still under Spanish control and Morocco is not happy.

10000maniacs

Call me Al wrote: »

There's a representative from the Ulster Farmer's Union Ivor Ferguson on Radio1 now saying that a no deal or hard Brexit will be a disaster for NI.
Their main concern revolves around the huge tariffs. A tariff of £40 per lamb going to ROI will leave 50% of their farmers our of business he says.

If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.

ancapailldorcha

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The problem is that if the Tories even suggested this, the DUP would pull support and there'd be a GE before HoC could vote on this I believe?

I don't think the Tories can do much given how many voted against the deal to begin with. 10 DUP votes only matter if the Tories in the Commons can be relied upon to vote with the government.

So that leaves either a crashout no deal, a general election which won't solve anything or aborting the whole process for damage control.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

As a matter of interest,are you aware that the Canary Islands are Spanish colonies,-Which rather diminishes their "outrage"in regards to Gibraltar perhaps?

I don't see the relevance of the status of the Canaries when it comes to smuggling, workers rights etc. between Spain and Gibraltar.

What Spain wants is for Gibraltar to apply the same rules as it does to level the playing field if they want to retain access to the EU.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Very few people here want a border at all but I just believe the intransigence of Eu and roi are forcing a border. Although that may be moving today. The cracks are appearing so hopefully very soft border wherever

It's pretty easy to determine the type of media accounts you read and follow based on the vocabulary you use when recycling myths.

FrancieBrady

10000maniacs wrote: »

If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.

It's an appalling vista for them, even with May's deal.
The guy on the radio was anxious to point out that they are a strictly non political body, but I think if the UUP or the Alliance offer any sort of serious alternative policy to that being pursued by Arlene that the DUP section will be de-camping or at the very least lending their vote.

Zubeneschamali

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?

Because after the next election (which could be very soon) no-one in London will care about what the DUP ruled out or in.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why are his admissions of loyalty to what he views as his country and sticking with that through thick or thin being questioned?

Only because its incomprehensible to most of the rest of us why anyone would tie themselves to a worst-case scenario when they have other options. Especially as downcow has shifted from a position of not being particularly bothered one way or the other (understandable when the facts were not properly exposed) to deliberately choosing the side with those who lied to the public and conspired with outside forces, and with the very real threat that this own livelihood (assuming that's cattle farming) will be wiped out.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?

Because nothing is agreed until everything is agreed! :pac:

downcow wrote: »

dozens of polls which show there are more people in NI who feel British rather than Irish So if it is such a severe border so as to diminish nationality then the rest follows.

That'd be fine, except there are more recent polls that reporting a substantial NI majority in favour of a united Ireland if Brexit causes significant economic damage to NI. Presumably you'd be happy with that - will-o'-the-people and all that? :rolleyes:

downcow wrote: »

I trust the UK to maintain any support farmers are getting (as long as they don’t give the whole £350million to the health service lol).

The NHS? They're not getting a penny. What's left of the £350m is being spent on new border/customs facilities and duplicating all the EU agencies that used to certify everything that Britain traded with the outside world. Oh, and paying dozens of EU suppliers and service providers to keep the UK looking like it's open for business.

downcow

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It has absolutely nothing to do with the EU and Ireland (why you continue to post about the soccer team is ultimately very confusing) - the UK will need a border in the event of a no-deal Brexit to comply with WTO trading rules. Trying to sell this as something the EU is forcing on Ireland/NI is ridiculous.

It wasn’t me raised the soccer team and I never discussed or mentioned it. I am already under pressure from mod for not being careful enough how I word my replies to pretty predjudiced stuff directed at me. So I refuse to discuss the soccer team here. I need to stay squeaky clean. Mind you I would love to on another thread!

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

The EU has, from it's EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) provided just shy of €170 million so far during the 2014-2020 funding cycle for Northern Ireland. This funding is dedicated to development of farming regions, rather than direct subsidies to farmers.

Meanwhile, through the common agricultural policy funding, Northern Ireland was given roughly €220 million for 2014-2020 in pillar 2 funding, and over €2 billion in Pillar 1.

That's a lot of money the UK is going to have to start paying their farmers in Northern Ireland to make up for lost EU Funding on top of the already £10 billion a year they spend propping up NI anyway. To say this is not a problem (or, as you phrased it "I don’t agree with the two negatives you outline") is being a little bit too hopeful.

True, the UK contributes considerably more than that per year to the EU budget, but that all gets pooled into other funds, like the various EU Structural and Investment Funds..which prioritise the poorer regions of Europe in terms of giving funding - a lot of which are in the UK. Are those regions going to be getting money alongside NI farmers? How much? Will the UK be able to afford it, or will it all get pooled into London like so much of their money does?

Since the EUSF are geared towards propping up poorer regions, the underdeveloped parts of the UK have been supported - effectively - by the wealthier regions in Germany and France which get proportionately less due to their greater development. Do you think the British government will properly balance the funding and subsidies which previously came out of EUSF funding, or will they (as HMG has a historyof doing) prioritise Britain over NI?

You're pinning a lot on the good will of HMG towards NI, when they've shown time and time again that NI is considered more a thorn in their side than an worthwhile member of the Union.

I struggle to completely understand all the figure here. Is the not what the Eu do best. Just muddy the finances so as we can’t get a handle on it. It would be helpful if you could tell me does UK pay in more that we get out? That seems to be the key as to whether they can afford to replace any Eu support NI is getting

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Because after the next election (which could be very soon) no-one in London will care about what the DUP ruled out or in.

May has already attempted to shaft them over it. If they cannot see the writing on the wall, you would have to question the intelligence of the current leadership.

They never learned after ****ting in the nest over the Anglo Irish Agreement and in the run up to the GFA. The British were literally sick of them and went ahead and did the deal regardless of the Never Never Never whinging.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

I don't see the relevance of the status of the Canaries when it comes to smuggling, workers rights etc. between Spain and Gibraltar.

What Spain wants is for Gibraltar to apply the same rules as it does to level the playing field if they want to retain access to the EU.

The point about smuggling is a fair point but that's not all Spain are complaining about(they want Gibraltar) and in view of the disputed enclaves in Morocco(which I thought had been ceded!) is massive hypocrisy

tuxy

RobMc59 wrote: »

The point about smuggling is a fair point but that's not all Spain are complaining about(they want Gibraltar) and in view of the disputed enclaves in Morocco(which I thought had been ceded!) is massive hypocrisy

Morocco controls most of the disputed Western Sahara so hypocrisy all round then!

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

I struggle to completely understand all the figure here. Is the not what the Eu do best. Just muddy the finances so as we can’t get a handle on it. It would be helpful if you could tell me does UK pay in more that we get out? That seems to be the key as to whether they can afford to replace any Eu support NI is getting

Funny enough the Ulster farmer talking on Radio 1 earlier on behalf of his farming union members didnt have any difficulties understanding any figures. Where there's a will there's a way. Especially the tariff figures he was saying his fellow countrymen would now be paying on losing free access to their markets.
He said they'd even accept May's withdrawal agreement, imperfect as it is.
Yes he definitely had a comprehensive grip on the figures.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: A few posts have been deleted. No more personal digs, please. Downcow, that post answers your question. Let the back and forth about it end here.

Dytalus wrote: »

The EU has, from it's EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) provided just shy of €170 million so far during the 2014-2020 funding cycle for Northern Ireland. This funding is dedicated to development of farming regions, rather than direct subsidies to farmers.

Meanwhile, through the common agricultural policy funding, Northern Ireland was given roughly €220 million for 2014-2020 in pillar 2 funding, and over €2 billion in Pillar 1.

That's a lot of money the UK is going to have to start paying their farmers in Northern Ireland to make up for lost EU Funding on top of the already £10 billion a year they spend propping up NI anyway. To say this is not a problem (or, as you phrased it "I don’t agree with the two negatives you outline") is being a little bit too hopeful.

True, the UK contributes considerably more than that per year to the EU budget, but that all gets pooled into other funds, like the various EU Structural and Investment Funds..which prioritise the poorer regions of Europe in terms of giving funding - a lot of which are in the UK. Are those regions going to be getting money alongside NI farmers? How much? Will the UK be able to afford it, or will it all get pooled into London like so much of their money does?

Since the EUSF are geared towards propping up poorer regions, the underdeveloped parts of the UK have been supported - effectively - by the wealthier regions in Germany and France which get proportionately less due to their greater development. Do you think the British government will properly balance the funding and subsidies which previously came out of EUSF funding, or will they (as HMG has a history of doing) prioritise Britain over NI?

You're pinning a lot on the good will of HMG towards NI, when they've shown time and time again that NI is considered more a thorn in their side than an worthwhile member of the Union.

brickster69

10000maniacs wrote: »

If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.

You would of thought there would be a big market for them to make a bigger profit sending it to the rest of the UK after March.

If French and Irish farmers have tariffs and NI don't, looks a bit of a no brainer to undercut them both, especially with no currency fluctuations to worry about.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I know I need to be extra careful about language I use. But any chance of answering my question?

The maths are there in Dytalus' second post:
UK pays £13bn to the EU (after rebate);
the UK receives £4bn from the EU in financial assistance, including farm subsidies;
Total annual payment from UK to EU = £9bn

Total annual payment from UK to NI = £10.8bn

So if the "£350m a day" was a good enough reason for England to want to leave the EU, it won't be long before it's a good enough reason for England to boot the Paddies out of the UK.

ilovesmybrick

downcow wrote:

I know I need to be extra careful about language I use. But any chance of answering my question?

The simple answer is that the EU spends a rather large amount on peripheral and deprived regions that are not being taken care of, nor will they be, by central government. In terms of whether there's a net loss or gain on the contribution to the EU is a rather misleading concept as the benefits of EU membership go beyond the payments and do not break down as simply as that.

For example, the UK may pay more in and get less out directly. However, access to the single market produces economic boosts that will not be reflected well on a simple balance sheet. Like the Horizon 2020 schemes which are an indirect economic benefit that leads to a more attractive research environment. This desire to calculate payments in and out is a very simplistic and misleading metric. On a personal level I may make a loss on my personal taxation towards the country I live in based on any payments for health care or social welfare I take out, but that loss would not take into account the upkeep of infrastructure or the benefits of social cohesion and a stable society.