Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Hurrache

Downcow, the only way Brexit will change any of the issues in the graphic below is simply by the fact they'll no longer be in the EU, and therefore will no longer appear in such lists if they only include the EU. If NI is in this list despite support from both the UK and the EU, what do you think will happen post Brexit?

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The simple answer is that the EU spends a rather large amount on peripheral and deprived regions that are not being taken care of, nor will they be, by central government. In terms of whether there's a net loss or gain on the contribution to the EU is a rather misleading concept as the benefits of EU membership go beyond the payments and do not break down as simply as that.

For example, the UK may pay more in and get less out directly. However, access to the single market produces economic boosts that will not be reflected well on a simple balance sheet. Like the Horizon 2020 schemes which are an indirect economic benefit that leads to a more attractive research environment. This desire to calculate payments in and out is a very simplistic and misleading metric. On a personal level I may make a loss on my personal taxation towards the country I live in based on any payments for health care or social welfare I take out, but that loss would not take into account the upkeep of infrastructure or the benefits of social cohesion and a stable society.

There's a simpler way of expressing it. Duplicating the devolved administrative functions that the EU carries out on behalf of all its members has cost the UK £4.2 billion so far. And they are a long way from duplicating all aspects. And these aren't once-off costs. They will continue for as long as the UK is outside the EU. Thousands of civil servants (7,000 the last time I looked) are tasked with the project. The requirement is for thousands more in customs, revenue, inspection regimes, technical areas like standards and a raft of other areas that I can't even begin to think of. If they get out of this with less than 20k staff, they will be doing well. But the cost will be astronomical. And all those costs will be incurred regardless of what kind of brexit is chosen.

ilovesmybrick

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's a simpler way of expressing it. Duplicating the devolved administrative functions that the EU carries out on behalf of all its members has cost the UK £4.2 billion so far. And they are a long way from duplicating all aspects. And these aren't once-off costs. They will continue for as long as the UK is outside the EU. Thousands of civil servants (7,000 the last time I looked) are tasked with the project. The requirement is for thousands more in customs, revenue, inspection regimes, technical areas like standards and a raft of other areas that I can't even begin to think of. If they get out of this with less than 20k staff, they will be doing well. But the cost will be astronomical. And all those costs will be incurred regardless of what kind of brexit is chosen.

As a side note, and not to derail the thread, I massively underappreciated the CSPE classes that we had to take in secondary school combined with the history and geography courses that outlined exactly how and why the EU works the way it does. From the few weeks I spent at home at Christmas being exposed to the UK media on a daily basis it's hard to understand how some commentators can remain so belligerently ignorant of how the EU, and parts of their own country, operate. And these are apparently the elite educated that went to private schools and the top universities.

devnull

Just heard from a friend of mine in the UK and everyone in his small town has had a leaflet dropped from a local Tory Councillor, I've seen a copy and found the same thing online.

WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE LISBON TREATY, THE TREATY THAT COMES INTO FORCE 2020, ITS WORSE THAN THE SO CALLED DEAL, IF 99% OF THE BRITISH THINK THIS THE DEAL IS BAD JUST LOOK AT THE LISBON TREATY. PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW, LEAVERS AND REMAIMERS..“What will actually happen if we stay in the EU” is a question no remainer will ever answer but here it is warts and all.

1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.
2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.
3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.
4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. (This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen, the move is fully cancelled - but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.)
5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK.
6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.
7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.
8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.
9 The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.
10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights
11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights
12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 - as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty
13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation
14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent
15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy
16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them
17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealths
18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.: Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar etc
19: The UK loses control of its judicial system
20: The UK loses control of its international policy
21: The UK loses full control of its national policy
22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right.
23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program
24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction
25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty
26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020
This is the future that the youths of today think we stole from them?
They should be on their knees thanking us for saving them from being turned into Orwellian automatons, if we escape from control of the EU.

This seems to being spread around by a lot of Brexiteers, and is going around on many Facebook pages and the way that some of them write is very strange and seems to have a lot in common with the kind of patterns I've seen from Russian trolls in the past. Noticeable that a few of them like referencing Breitbart, Russia Today and don't like the Ukraine at all and believe the Salisbury nerve agent attack was a hoax by potion down. Smells like Russian influence.

Sorry if it's considered a link dump, but it's quite shocking how you see so many people believing it just because they read it on the internet and how gullable some people are.

Hurrache

It's been debunked, quite easily, by experts on Twitter the last few days. Jesus, I mean claiming the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect in 2020 doesn't even have some people scratching their heads.

devnull

Hurrache wrote: »

It's been debunked, quite easily, by experts on Twitter the last few days.

The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

It wasn’t me raised the soccer team and I never discussed or mentioned it. I am already under pressure from mod for not being careful enough how I word my replies to pretty predjudiced stuff directed at me. So I refuse to discuss the soccer team here. I need to stay squeaky clean. Mind you I would love to on another thread!

It's just confusing that you keep saying RoI if you're not talking about a soccer team is all.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

The maths are there in Dytalus' second post:
UK pays £13bn to the EU (after rebate);
the UK receives £4bn from the EU in financial assistance, including farm subsidies;
Total annual payment from UK to EU = £9bn

Total annual payment from UK to NI = £10.8bn

So if the "£350m a day" was a good enough reason for England to want to leave the EU, it won't be long before it's a good enough reason for England to boot the Paddies out of the UK.

It's extraordinary that Brexiteers are hung up on the EU membership fee of all things. It's a country of 65m people and one of the richest countries in the world. A figure of £9bn a year for access to the Single Market and Customs Union membership is a long way from being excessive or extravagant.

The Netherlands pays €4.4bn net a year, a country of 17m people.

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.

my MIL is over from Scotland

telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

spare room tonight

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

my MIL is over from Scotland

telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

spare room tonight

If your sum total knowledge of the EU is precisely zero, it's the easiest thing in the world to convince you it's a dictatorship, it's corrupt, it's trying to take over Britain etc.

The big fault of successive British governments is they made absolutely no attempt to sell the EU to the public or talk up its positives, it was just this thing going on in the background that people didn't know much about. The icing on the cake was that hawkish Eurosceptic Cameron becoming PM and talking about the union purely in negative terms.

mickoneill31

devnull wrote: »

The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.

I saw a post on Facebook today about Ireexit. It had 100% responses that were positive towards brexit. Stuff like, the Irish are waking up and they're not happy now that they have to pay.
I posted a reply saying most people in Ireland are positive towards the EU and linked to a recent poll.

I checked it back an hour later. My post is gone and I can't post anything else to the page. It's 100% Pro Brexit again. It's easy to keep people in a bubble in Facebook.

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

my MIL is over from Scotland

telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

spare room tonight

Lol

Ask her about how farage gets suspicious private jets he seemingly can't afford and a bachelor pad in London be shared with some woman and he doesn't own the place. And how he moves on the circles of ultra wealthy right wing individuals. Those facts.

downcow

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It's just confusing that you keep saying RoI if you're not talking about a soccer team is all.

Apologies. I genuinely thought your country was called rep of ireland. But seems it’s called ireland. I thought that the whole island was ireland. But I accept I am wrong. Every day is a school day. I won’t be calling it roi again because I respect what you want it called. Now could you also make the effort to call my country Northern Ireland as opposed to the north.
Thanks for the steer.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

my MIL is over from Scotland

telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

spare room tonight

Well if you're going to be hung for the lamb, may as well make it the whole sheep and start quoting all Farage's lies to her, interspersed with "and here's another fact from Nigel".

That could keep you going all night. We can always keep you fed with new ones if needed.

Infini

Look for everyone's sakes let's hope May and expecially that fool Mogg gets sidelined by parliment and the only choice left at the end is either the WA or an A50 cancellation ending Brexit. No Deal is not just a non viable option it WILL cause untold amounts of collateral damage and severe Harm to NI.

Downcow lets be honest here Brexit is literally poison to a unionist in every sense but the DUP are so stupid and deluded in their own ideology that they refuse to recognise this and it will be at their own peril, it has no benefit whatsoever, none, only drawbacks from the bad to the absolutely perilous and will severely undermine the union if a crash out happens. Its not just the border it affects everything from trade, electricity to farming to even the prices in the supermarket. Then if theres a crash in the value of sterling or a run on the currency your savings lose value as well. Your essentially taking things for granted because you think it be fine.

Honestly you'd better hope Brexit either has the WA or is withdrawn because theres no way of fully knowing how things will play out in that event. It will be both unprecedented and very ugly for those inside the UK.

upupup

A brexiteer on sky news today at midday talking about the backstop problem..I dont know if he was confused or just had no idea but this is what he said which left me a bit confused.

here's what he said;.."The backstop may lead to a border poll which may result in Ulster joining the republic of Ireland against the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland"????

eire4

upupup wrote: »

A brexiteer on sky news today at midday talking about the backstop problem..I dont know if he was confused or just had no idea but this is what he said which left me a bit confused.

here's what he said;.."The backstop may lead to a border poll which may result in Ulster joining the republic of Ireland against the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland"????

It would be funny if the whole situation was not so serious. That quote really just sums things up when it comes to the breixteers.

Hurrache

upupup wrote: »

A brexiteer on sky news today at midday talking about the backstop problem..I dont know if he was confused or just had no idea but this is what he said which left me a bit confused.

here's what he said;.."The backstop may lead to a border poll which may result in Ulster joining the republic of Ireland against the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland"????

It was the guy who said he wrote to Poland asking for their help. Nothing says taking back control by asking for a foreign power to interfere with your parliament.


Kevin Doyle tweeted this. His record is awful and I wouldn't be surprised he's throwing this out there to try add foundation to his inaccurate story this morning.
https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1088147296720703490?s=19

Mr.Wemmick

Strazdas wrote: »

If your sum total knowledge of the EU is precisely zero, it's the easiest thing in the world to convince you it's a dictatorship, it's corrupt, it's trying to take over Britain etc.

The big fault of successive British governments is they made absolutely no attempt to sell the EU to the public or talk up its positives, it was just this thing going on in the background that people didn't know much about. The icing on the cake was that hawkish Eurosceptic Cameron becoming PM and talking about the union purely in negative terms.

Cameron and Osborne loved to sing from the EU-are-evil sheet. It was convenient as they could point towards the poor Greeks and blame the EU for UK's austerity and Osborne's nasty grab the cash and run policies (which May continue when she took over). That pair have a lot to answer for in turning folks against the EU and for creating the environment that led to Farage's whipped up dramas.

And now, no one seems to be talking straight or have the courage to admit to the UK public that any deal they manage to get will never match or be as good as the deal they have now.

VinLieger

upupup wrote: »

here's what he said;.."The backstop may lead to a border poll which may result in Ulster joining the republic of Ireland against the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland"????

Gonna go ahead and guess he meant "against the wishes of the people we like who do what we tell them without question even if it goes against their best interests" ie the DUP

First Up

correct horse battery staple wrote:

There might be one positive to Brexit, UK will be so busy with no deal fallout and claim they won't check goods, so that means EU producers can start cutting corners for goods destined for UK market, the savings of making substandard goods might be enough to balance out tarrifs, think of Toblerone as an example

I hope (for your sake) that this was just an attempt at humour.

Strazdas

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Cameron and Osborne loved to sing from the EU-are-evil sheet. It was convenient as they could point towards the poor Greeks and blame the EU for UK's austerity and Osborne's nasty grab the cash and run policies (which May continue when she took over). That pair have a lot to answer for in turning folks against the EU and for creating the environment that led to Farage's whipped up dramas.

And now, no one seems to be talking straight or have the courage to admit to the UK public that any deal they manage to get will never match or be as good as the deal they have now.

According to Donald Tusk, when Cameron went to the EU summit in early 2016 demanding concessions on freedom of movement, it was just a political stunt or PR job so he could 'bring something back' in order to justify holding the referendum. But Tusk gave him short shrift : he says he asked Cameron something like "Why should we start tearing the EU apart just to help you out with your stupid referendum?". He suggests that Cameron's face dropped when it suddenly began to dawn on him what an absolute mess he had created in calling the referendum.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The BBC adds Brussels to its shortlist for a post-Brexit EU base, alongside Dublin and Amsterdam:

https://www.lalibre.be/culture/medias-tele/la-bbc-songe-a-s-installer-a-bruxelles-5c4844fc7b50a60724f18610

Frankly, who cares? For one, I'm not sure the BBC requires a foreign base. For two, they obviously have not been doing a very good job on their European coverage to this point.

Hurrache

Strazdas wrote: »

According to Donald Tusk, when Cameron went to the EU summit in early 2016 demanding concessions on freedom of movement, it was just a political stunt or PR job so he could 'bring something back' in order to justify holding the referendum. But Tusk gave him short shrift : he says he asked Cameron something like "Why should we start tearing the EU apart just to help you out with your stupid referendum?". He suggests that Cameron's face dropped when it suddenly began to dawn on him what an absolute mess he had created in calling the referendum.

The documentary from which that came starts next week on BBC 2.

Water John

I hadn't realised it but it's more than ironic that Churchill, who all the Brexiteers worship, in 1952 was calling for a United States of Europe. Boris Johnson thinks he's stepping into his shoes.

Strazdas

Hurrache wrote: »

The documentary from which that came starts next week on BBC 2.

Brexit was no "accident". Cameron was playing with fire for years by threatening to hold a referendum for years and merely using it as a tool or weapon to win concessions. At one point, he threatened the EU with a referendum and that he would campaign for Leave (!)

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

A number of txts into Newstalk this morning claiming we should leave with the UK. Apart from the nonsense idea that it is is terms of trade links etc, are they proposing that we start to take up seats in the HoC as otherwise we would have no say in the rules and regulations set for us in this union.

My answer is to compare NI to us economically or look at Scotland in Westminster.

Scotland has a higher population than we do. And their MP's are ignored. The Lib Dems used to be the third party, even in Govt with the Tories they had little to no influence. A reminder that before the last election each of the three main UK parties who've being controlling the Union since 1707 only got a single MP each in Scotland.

Hurrache wrote: »

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

I hadn't realised it but it's more than ironic that Churchill, who all the Brexiteers worship, in 1952 was calling for a United States of Europe. Boris Johnson thinks he's stepping into his shoes.

He also longed for a United Ireland and preferred people in the South to people in the North.

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Frankly, who cares? For one, I'm not sure the BBC requires a foreign base. For two, they obviously have not been doing a very good job on their European coverage to this point.

It's about licensing to broadcast into the EU afaik. A lot of UK broadcasters are doing this.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Leave the soccer and the country name stuff at that please.