Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Hurrache

Someone mentioned this interview earlier, the one in which Martin Howe was on Sky News arguing that there's no need for a border before he came quickly unstuck when faced with facts.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/adam-boulton-and-martin-howe-qc-argue-about-the-irish-backstop-on-sky-news-1-5865131

Hotblack Desiato

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Airbus seems to be moving to Pratt & Whitney (US) and CFM International (France/US) engines for their A220, A320, A350 and the A380 is using the Engine Alliance (GE/Pratt & Whitney).

They still have options for the RR engines on the A330, but I think they are also offering Engine Alliance going forward.

It was always IAE (RR sold their stake in it but are still a supplier) or CFM on the 320ceo family, the 320neo is CFM or P&W, the neo engine options were chosen years ago.

330 ceo is GE, P&W or RR. 330 neo are all RR Trents

350 also all have RR engines. Again a decision made years ago.

380 is EA or RR, according to wikipedia it's about 45%:55%, RR ahead.

220 is P&W. Not an Airbus design, Bombardier made that decision years ago.

To say Brexit has had any impact on engine choices for any model produced in the foreseeable future is a red herring I'm afraid.

Borderhopper

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

The U.K. makes relatively few medicines, most come from EU companies or EU based subsidiaries. Almost no laboratory diagnostic equipment or consumables are manufactured in the U.K. and almost all is sourced from EU countries. 20 years experience in NHS medical pathology has shown me this.

robinph

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Think all of the drugs that keep me alive and in a good mood are only manufactured in the EU. Add on a limited shelf life for some of them and that stopping taking some of them them would be fatal within a day or so I'm quite understandably a bit nervous about any delays that might happen with the surprisingly important trade route between Dover and Calais.

The supply chains have been running along happily for decades, doesn't take much for things to go to pot. Was surprising how long it took for supermarket shelves to get restocked with basic items just last year after a few days of lorries not getting through because of a bit of snow, and that was for products that were produced in the same country and in multiple places.

Call me Al

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

I guess the authorities will just need to get those outgoing ferries offloaded quick sharp on the EU side before loading them all up to carry back with them.
Just as well there aren't going to be any checks or delays to or from the ports or dock at either end ..... oh wait....

Frank Bullitt

Hurrache wrote: »

Someone mentioned this interview earlier, the one in which Martin Howe was on Sky News arguing that there's no need for a border before he came quickly unstick when faced with facts.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/adam-boulton-and-martin-howe-qc-argue-about-the-irish-backstop-on-sky-news-1-5865131

This is a glorious and awkward watch.

mickoneill31

eggman100 wrote: »

Medicines are made in the UK, and the UK would not hold up imports from the EU anyway. The only people suggesting a problem are the EU on UK exports. But that is their lookout if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces. Project fear strikes again.

Studying the EU since the 90s. You should have been studying trade.
Insulin isn't even made in the UK. Many medicines that are required in the UK are made in the EU.

What's the deal with the radioactive materials required for hospitals that come from the UK. I haven't been keeping up to date with what's going to happen there.

I'm sure the UK won't restrict medicines coming in but if they want to get all these great new trade deals after Brexit they'll have to control their borders. That means delays.

And even if there are only delays leaving the UK then the cost of those trucks leaving the UK goes up. Thatll be passed on to the consumer.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Eggman100 will be taking a break.

otnomart

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

Captain Obvious

otnomart wrote: »

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

Poland at the request of a UK MP no less. Another example of democracy being stamped on by Tories.

Strazdas

otnomart wrote: »

Interesting today seeing the positions of two other EU Countries, Austria and Lithuania.
-Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian president, said the EU would agree to a short extension of article 50 but preferably not beyond the European Parliament elections set for May
-But the Lithuanian president, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said a no-deal Brexit would be better than a lengthy extension of article 50.
source for both is the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live
So: if the UK asks for an extension, it seems so far that at least Poland (previous statements I came across) and Lithuania will vote No ?

If they do, we are unlikely to hear about it, just that the EU had come to an agreed position under Barnier. It does suggest though that an extension is by no means a given.

demfad

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

Anecdote about Bannerman: As a UKIP MEP he was fined when Hermann Kelly impersonated him at a State of the Union parliament address so he wouldn't miss an appearance fee.

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm inclined to disagree. Older people are more likely to vote than younger people and are also less likely to hold social media accounts. I'd say decades of negativity, vitriol and deceit have done more for Brexit than echo chambers.

Agreed. But the aspect that got Brexit, like Trump, from being in a minority position to a majority position were massive targetted disinformation campaigns. In Brexits case about £1 million overspend (biggest fraud in UK election history) was funnelled from Vote Leave to AIQ via Beleavethrown in the last week. This added to the £3.5 m Vote Leave had legally paid AIQ. Those pesky Russians pushing £8 million (mainly to digital campaigns) through Aaron Banks plus whatever their own (seperate Russian) campaign cost them. RT dominated the youtube campaign via Farage.
We know Cambridge Analytica were knocking around too but no estimate yet.
Years of hatred got Leave into the 40s% but Disinformation and criminality on a massive scale got them over the line.

ancapailldorcha

One-liners deleted.

Seth Brundle

Ford claiming that a no deal will cost heavily from a financial and employment perspective...
https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1088431950648479744?s=19


Separately Sky appear to have held some kind of badly worded survey on how people's choice to leave.
On top of that, they erm to have messed up the results...
https://twitter.com/incrediblesie/status/1088506745712988160?s=19

An Ciarraioch

Heads of Bills for no-deal Brexit legislation published by the Government:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0124/1025281-plans-for-brexit/

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

the pol corrs are getting themselves worked up in a circle something awful .


1. The EU says "in the event of a no deal there will have to be a huge amount of work done to avoid a border " (said work implying the UK stays in the EU and so forth )

this leads to a truly silly logic jump from the poll corrs

2. "so why need the backstop at all ? Surely its not needed therefore "


AAAARGGGG

I hope that there are talks on the side to avoid a border in a no deal scenario. This would mean an Irish Sea border which the DUP will not like, but seeing as they didn't sign up to the GFA I think it is safe to assume they weren't going to like it either way.

eggman100 wrote: »

Either you weren't there or you have short memories. Nobody did as much for the remain campaign as Cameron and Osborne. They both campaigned their asses off telling us what terrible things would happen if we voted to leave

You have taken a break but for anyone else who might be thinking about this, here is an article that shows what steps were taken to avoid those predictions made by Cameron and Osborne and the Bank of England. In hindsight it would have been better to do nothing and let project fear play out, but they decided the prudent measures was the best option,

This is the Bank of England's all-action response to Brexit

FrancieBrady

Was out and about and heard a garbled RTE news item on the headphones about Juncker phoning Leo this evening...anyone know the story?

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Was out and about and heard a garbled RTE news item on the headphones about Juncker phoning Leo this evening...anyone know the story?

Here you go :

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1088506289339199492

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1088522589172043776

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1088402063736913920

Hard not to notice the more forthright tone from EU leaders today.

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

Here you go :

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1088506289339199492

Cheers. The message to the UK seems to be getting underlined at Davos today. Also good to hear Leo say that the UK will be asked to uphold their commitments to the GFA in the event of a crash out. Good to have that as a fallback.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

Comedy Gold

Airbus UK don't make aircraft. They make some wings and other bits.

If you nationalise the factory you will have just two potential customesr for wings that only fit on a certain brand, and Airbus won't be buying.

That just leaves Iran. And only during periods of sanctions when they don't have spare hard currency. And the US won't be happy with that.

#takebackcontrol

Developing new aircraft isn't cheap. Even Airbus and Boeing have gone to Bombardier and Embraer respectively rather than try to develop something smaller than a 737 or A319.

China is also ramping up aircraft technology so good luck on the open market. If you don't have good trade deals or huge government support then perhaps the only way into the market would be to buy Russian companies.


It's the Brexit , UK as a global trader on it's own myth in miniature.

Capt'n Midnight

marieholmfan wrote: »

The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Did you forget the bit where it was the UK that triggered Article 50 ?

The French have nukes. And they don't need to get launch access from Washington.

Reductio ad absurdum beaks a lot when you try to use it on Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Deliciously spun by the Telegraph opinion machine:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/23/dysons-move-shows-thatcherite-dream-free-market-brexit-dying/



(Emphasis mine)

So there you have it. Dyson isn't leaving Britain because of Brexit, it's because Brexit is unlikely to be Brexity enough. Singapore on Thames dashed, etc.

Singapore has a FTA with the EU

The UK might not.


Dyson is the guy who warned about Chinese students in the UK stealing secrets. There are lots of Chinese in Singapore, over three quarters of the population in fact.

Just another mé feiner

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Singapore has a FTA with the EU

The UK might not.


Dyson is the guy who warned about Chinese students in the UK stealing secrets. There are lots of Chinese in Singapore, over three quarters of the population in fact.

Just another mé feiner

Yep. The same guy was warning the UK government that they'd better maintain farming subsidies after brexit. He is personally the biggest farmer in the UK. It would be an unfortunate side effect if the predicted collapse of farming after brexit came about.

Folkstonian

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Did you forget the bit where it was the UK that triggered Article 50 ?

The French have nukes. And they don't need to get launch access from Washington.

Reductio ad absurdum beaks a lot when you try to use it on Brexit.

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

2ygb4cmqetsjhx

Surely people don't think Brexit brings us closer to the prospect of Nuclear war. There will be a deal. Or there will be no brexit.

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain maintains an independent nuclear deterrent. It doesn’t rely on American GPS for targeting and doesn’t require any authorisation from America to be used. Why are you regurgitating a long disproved slur?

It's kind of strange that you'd take issue with a technical aspect of what was a tongue in cheek riposte while sailing airily by the post that he replied to. Unless of course you think that threatening nuclear war on your nearest neighbours over a withdrawal agreement is an appropriate response.

EdgeCase

I'm not entirely sure why everyone in the British media took the advice of an overpriced vacuum cleaner company CEO instead of the rather more technically sound advice being given by countless economists.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1088522589172043776

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1088402063736913920

Hard not to notice the more forthright tone from EU leaders today.

To be honest it has to be made perfectly clear this is the only agreement on the table. If its unpalatable then the only sane choice is abandoning Brexit because a crashout will have severe political and economic consequences for the UK.

The simple truth is this is the endgame and the moment it genuinely looks like the UK will crash out is when well likely see the most severe consequences of this crystalise. I think the only reason we haven't seen a crash or drop in sterling at this point is the markets still think the UK isnt going to crash out and in fairness a deal or a50 cancellation is far more likely than a no deal crash.