Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Zubeneschamali

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain will obviously hurt the most from no deal.

And within the UK, he regions which take the biggest hits are the North East (16%), West Midlands (13%) and...


Northern Ireland, with 12%.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

Remain should say to stay in the EU and push for reforms in the institution, and block further treaties of integration unless the EU make some concessions to that end.

This point has been made in Brussels - even Remainers in the UK are sceptical of the EUs mission. The EU is better off without them all, Leave and Remain.

downcow

One step at a time. Could I genuinely check this out so as I am not make wrong assumptions

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Can we also agree that it is in everyone’s interests across Eu/UK/ire for a sensible agreement to be reached?

quokula

downcow wrote: »

One step at a time. Could I genuinely check this out so as I am not make wrong assumptions

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Can we also agree that it is in everyone’s interests across Eu/UK/ire for a sensible agreement to be reached?

The backstop is what those extremists who shout loudest and get the most tv coverage in parliament are up in arms over, but the vast majority of those who voted against the deal did so because they want a softer / no brexit.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

One step at a time. Could I genuinely check this out so as I am not make wrong assumptions

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Can we also agree that it is in everyone’s interests across Eu/UK/ire for a sensible agreement to be reached?

Revoking brexit is the sensible option. It has no mandate. Not even for your country .

Its time to be sensible. It doesn't even have a global mandate it's not economically sound nor morally.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

I can't tell - Westminster is a complete sh!tshow, I don't think they know either.


But I also don't care. Deal is on the table: sign it, leave without it, or call the whole thing off.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

One step at a time. Could I genuinely check this out so as I am not make wrong assumptions

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Can we also agree that it is in everyone’s interests across Eu/UK/ire for a sensible agreement to be reached?

A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop. The EU has already given enough ground. If this ends up in no deal, so be it. We will take an economic hit second only to the UK, which will itself be hammered. Then the English will start saying "We send £400m a week to NI. Let's really fund our NHS instead".

Calina

downcow wrote: »

One step at a time. Could I genuinely check this out so as I am not make wrong assumptions

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Can we also agree that it is in everyone’s interests across Eu/UK/ire for a sensible agreement to be reached?

No one has an issue here. No one wants this to be permanent. It not being permanent depends on the UK coming up with a solution.

Presumably the UK fears it cannot find a solution and is terrified as a result. The backstop would be permanent because of UK problems.

A sensible agreement is not to Brexit at all. Everything else is bad to some mitigation of bad for the UK.

First Up

downcow wrote:

Can most of us agree that it is the potential permanency of the backstop that is currently the main blockage?

Better ask that question to the HoC. They are the only ones blocking anything and they seem to have a variety of different problems.

You seem to be labouring under the illusion that there is something more to be "'negotiated". There isn't.

The EU is waiting for the UK to decide if it will ratify the arrangements it agreed. If it doesn't, the EU will make its own arrangements, including Ireland's continued full participation in the Single Market.

This will probably include some arrangements for local cross-border stuff, as occurs on all the EU's external borders. However there will be no access to mainland Europe for NI exports and Ireland will not be a backdoor for the UK to the EU.

Most of the plans for these contingencies are in place. The EU has been planning for reality for the last two years so I suggest you should start planning yours soon.

funkey_monkey

Interesting article from Tony Connolly

http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0126/1025621-tony-blog/

judeboy101

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Interesting article from Tony Connolly

http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0126/1025621-tony-blog/

Seems TC is putting his money on Graham Brady's amendment getting backing from brexiteers and DUP.

An Ciarraioch

judeboy101 wrote: »

Seems TC is putting his money on Graham Brady's amendment getting backing from brexiteers and DUP.

As per Tom Newton Dunn - quite why the Tories are persisting with a position that they know full well has no prospect of being entertained in Brussels is a mystery, unless they're deliberately aiming for No Deal.

An Ciarraioch

To whit, the story is fully fleshed out by Slugger O'Toole (sparing me from having to link to the Sun):

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/25/the-dup-seem-poised-to-bail-out-theresa-may-will-the-eu-be-impressed/

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

As per Tom Newton Dunn - quite why the Tories are persisting with a position that they know full well has no prospect of being entertained in Brussels is a mystery, unless they're deliberately aiming for No Deal.

Either they know something we don't or they are chancers.

Akrasia

judeboy101 wrote: »

Seems TC is putting his money on Graham Brady's amendment getting backing from brexiteers and DUP.

Which would make a crash out even more likely. How many times do the UK need to be told that the backstop is already agreed and will not be removed?

road_high

Akrasia wrote: »

Which would make a crash out even more likely. How many times do the UK need to be told that the backstop is already agreed and will not be removed?

Saw one of them on tv a few days speaking as if the backstop will be removed and all May had to do is amend the Agreement accordingly!
A good crash out on WTO terms with widespread economic damage and disruption is perhaps what these donkeys need?

judeboy101

Akrasia wrote: »

Which would make a crash out even more likely. How many times do the UK need to be told that the backstop is already agreed and will not be removed?

Agreed by cabinet, parliament is God etc..... At this stage they need to leave and when they come to their senses, reapply. Only real issue for us is the phytosanitary border, non phytosanitary stuff can be dealt with away from border but considering how F&M got into Ireland I wouldn't trust British farmers with a one legged half blind chicken.

road_high

More helpful Indo headlines this morning- “Varadkar in panic as Brexit border plan exposed”. We all know in the event of a crash out there’ll be a hard border- this is why the EU have been so keen and allowed so many concession to the UK. But a line has to be drawn so where. If they don’t agree then so be it

rusty the athlete

Akrasia wrote: »

Which would make a crash out even more likely. How many times do the UK need to be told that the backstop is already agreed and will not be removed?

But this has been a 'feature' of the approach all along such as May going around Europe trying to solicit individual member countries when it was repeated time and time that the EU27 are united and not willing to be approached unilaterally. And then the whole cherry picking/having cake and eating it exercise, again being told time and time again that the favorable bits of the EU can't be picked off and the less 'desirable' elements of being a full member ignored. And now everything will be rosy when the backstop is pulled despite being told repeatedly by all and sundry that its a non starter. Its the most peculiar negotiating stance that I have ever come across, like saying I'm agree to move into your house tomorrow after being told over and over that its already occupied and simply not for sale.

downcow

listermint wrote: »

Revoking brexit is the sensible option. It has no mandate. Not even for your country .

Its time to be sensible. It doesn't even have a global mandate it's not economically sound nor morally.

Folks this is really interesting for me. Lots of you responded and to a person didn’t even attempt to answer the question. Simply stated that we should not have voted to leave and should go against the referendum.
It’s maybe why we can teach little agreement here. It’s not really about negotiations,agreement, backstop etc which I thought it was. It’s just people are pi**ed off that we are leaving

First Up

judeboy101 wrote:

Agreed by cabinet, parliament is God etc..... At this stage they need to leave and when they come to their senses, reapply. Only real issue for us is the phytosanitary border, non phytosanitary stuff can be dealt with away from border but considering how F&M got into Ireland I wouldn't trust British farmers with a one legged half blind chicken.

Yes, that has to be checked but not necessarily at the border.

Silent Running

judeboy101 wrote: »

Agreed by cabinet, parliament is God etc..... At this stage they need to leave and when they come to their senses, reapply. Only real issue for us is the phytosanitary border, non phytosanitary stuff can be dealt with away from border but considering how F&M got into Ireland I wouldn't trust British farmers with a one legged half blind chicken.

The thought that they would leave and then apply to join at a later date is not really a runner. Once they're gone, they're gone. As the advertising blurb goes.

The idea that they would just swan back into the European family as if they never left is never going to happen. They would have to take up the Euro and lose all their rebates and opt outs. The Euro would be required to join by any new applicant, which the UK would then be. The special deals they now have will die with Brexit.

If you think that there's nationalist fervour now, wait until you tell them they have to drop sterling. :eek:

judeboy101

First Up wrote: »

Yes, that has to be checked but not necessarily at the border.

TC brings up scenario of a UK f&m outbreak where phytosanitary has been moved away from border, let's say meath factory. Infected animal imported and checked in Meath. Headlines read f&m confirmed in Ireland. No one will read the byline (infection imported from UK).

First Up

rusty the athlete wrote:

But this has been a 'feature' of the approach all along such as May going around Europe trying to solicit individual member countries when it was repeated time and time that the EU27 are united and not willing to be approached unilaterally. And then the whole cherry picking/having cake and eating it exercise, again being told time and time again that the favorable bits of the EU can't be picked off and the less 'desirable' elements of being a full member ignored. And now everything will be rosy when the backstop is pulled despite being told repeatedly by all and sundry that its a non starter. Its the most peculiar negotiating stance that I have ever come across, like saying I'm agree to move into your house tomorrow after being told over and over that its already occupied and simply not for sale.

May and her dysfunctional cabinet are hostage to the multiple whims of the HoC. Party cohesion has gone out the window.

Its not the first time (nor last) the EU has had to deal with a country or government in chaos. There is only one way to do it; be clear, firm and consistent.

judeboy101

road_high wrote: »

More helpful Indo headlines this morning- “Varadkar in panic as Brexit border plan exposed”. We all know in the event of a crash out there’ll be a hard border- this is why the EU have been so keen and allowed so many concession to the UK. But a line has to be drawn so where. If they don’t agree then so be it

If Jesus was being crucified in the morning, the Sindo would be running ads for half price nails.

Silent Running

downcow wrote: »

Folks this is really interesting for me. Lots of you responded and to a person didn’t even attempt to answer the question. Simply stated that we should not have voted to leave and should go against the referendum.
It’s maybe why we can teach little agreement here. It’s not really about negotiations,agreement, backstop etc which I thought it was. It’s just people are pi**ed off that we are leaving

Do you really expect people not to be pissed off that the UK is in the process of harming everyone around them? This selfish act won't win any friends among their neighbours. No thought has been given to anyone but England, and I do mean England. They don't care a jot about Scotland, Wales and, least of all, Northern Ireland.

downcow

First Up wrote: »

You seem to be labouring under the illusion that there is something more to be "'negotiated". There isn't.

Help me with this. I am genuinely confused. You keep saying there will be no more negotiating.
If we leave with no deal because we can’t accept the backstop being potentially permanent, are you seriously saying there will be no further negotiations?
Can you simply not stomache the reality that there will be an ever growing plethora of mutually beneficial agreements develop?
This is the ludicrous belief that many are stating here almost as a threat to the UK.

First Up

downcow wrote:

Folks this is really interesting for me. Lots of you responded and to a person didn’t even attempt to answer the question. Simply stated that we should not have voted to leave and should go against the referendum. It’s maybe why we can teach little agreement here. It’s not really about negotiations,agreement, backstop etc which I thought it was. It’s just people are pi**ed off that we are leaving

I have several times asked you to clarify what you want to be negotiated and you have ignored the question.

So don't come the misunderstood victim here.

road_high

judeboy101 wrote: »

If Jesus was being crucified in the morning, the Sindo would be running ads for half price nails.

Especially if they thought he was Irish!

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Folks this is really interesting for me. Lots of you responded and to a person didn’t even attempt to answer the question. Simply stated that we should not have voted to leave and should go against the referendum.
It’s maybe why we can teach little agreement here. It’s not really about negotiations,agreement, backstop etc which I thought it was. It’s just people are pi**ed off that we are leaving

Eh, yeah people are pissed off. Our economy will be severely damaged. Our security is under great threat. An institution that is very important to Ireland is being damaged. None of which is of our own making. And this is news to you. Says it all really.