Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Enzokk

Another warning about food from Retailers,

No-deal Brexit 'to leave shelves empty' warn retailers

A no-deal Brexit threatens the UK's food security and will lead to higher prices and empty shelves, retailers are preparing to warn MPs.

M&S, Sainsbury's and Waitrose are among those warning stockpiling fresh food is impossible and that the UK is very reliant on the EU for produce.

The warning comes in a letter from the British Retail Consortium and is signed by many of the main food retailers.

It comes ahead of crucial votes in Parliament tomorrow.

The letter from the retailers, seen by the BBC, says there will be "significant risks" to maintaining the choice, quality and shelf life of food.

"We are extremely concerned that our customers will be among the first to experience the realities of a no deal Brexit," the letter says.

But let me guess, when this happens we will be told that its okay, people were warning this would happen so its not a big deal?

Folkstonian

Enzokk wrote: »

Wait, everybody from the leave side told voters not to believe Cameron and his fear mongering. That is when Project Fear was shouted by all and sundry, now you want to tell people that they should have believed the people you told them to ignore?

This is probably one of the most ridiculous statements out there regarding Brexit. This is almost as ridiculous as telling the EU that there will be technology to easily negate the need for a border so there is no need for the backstop. Have I missed it that we have somehow ended up in the movie Idiocracy?

Thank you for your honest appraisal of my capacity for critical analysis and retention of knowledge.

I played no part in any political campaign, by the way. So I don’t know who the ‘you’ that you so aggressively refer to is.

Nody

Russman wrote: »

Its the likes of this that I think makes a no-deal crash out pretty much nailed on at this point. The numbers for May just don't stack up, no matter which way she goes. Why, oh why she won't move on a different red line than the backstop, is beyond me. A bit like the old joke about a carrier group demanding a lighthouse change its course to get out of its way - its just not going to happen.
I guess her only hope is to try wait them out until 28th March and hope her deal is a bit less worse than the alternative.

Because she's (still) afraid ERG would kick her out for doing so.

On a side note the lighthouse one appears to be an actual event involving a Spanish Lighthouse and a US navy group going to the Iraq war :P

ilovesmybrick

Enzokk wrote: »

Another warning about food from Retailers

I was just about to post that. What stunned me most of all is the sheer idiocy on display in the comments. "If we don't by it who will?", "Boo hoo no avocado", "Exactly who or what is going to stop foreign food entering the UK: The UK Government? The European farmers perhaps, worried that we won't cook their broccoli to European specifications?".

Presumably there are quite a lot of trolls at work, but the sheer number of people that seem to believe that the entire food production system in the EU only services the UK is utter madness.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

Because Scotland is a constituent country of a greater sovereign state, whilst the EU is, for now, an association of sovereign states.

Surely even the most ardent Scottish separatist (is this what you are?) would see why the process is different?

Scotland voted in a nationalist government, which in turn requested a referendum on independence. Which was then freely, fairly, and peacefully contested. And lost.

If they want another vote, they are absolutely welcome to it.

You can pile on the British government and the wider political system over Brexit all you want, but I think it is absolutely absurd that you would attempt to disparage and discredit the manner in which that particular episode was dealt with.

Yes, England and Scotland are separate countries. But the union has been, until the last few years, a phenomenal success. Efforts like yours seem to be just a subtly snide attempt to gloss over its unprecedented accomplishments

You know well that the Scots kept the Union based on the status quo i.e. being part of the UK in the EU. They won't make that mistake again.

VinLieger

Nody wrote: »

On a side note the lighthouse one appears to be an actual event involving a Spanish Lighthouse and a US navy group going to the Iraq war :P

Pretty sure its been debunked well and truly and is just apocryphal

CelticRambler

Folkstonian wrote: »

Presumably Britain will need a similar regulatory body now, so the British staff members will be fast tracked into it

As pointed out in an earlier post, Britain has the MHRA which is (for now) working as an EU-recognised regulatory body. It's role, post Brexit, will not change dramatically, so it's unlikely that there'll be hundreds of jobs to be filled. Why? Because the EMA was the coordinating body for the 28 national authorities; the UK will not need to coordinate itself (well ... :rolleyes: )

Furthermore, the MHRA has already published its post-Brexit plan, which is (in effect) to copy-and-paste everything the EU does/says/requires into UK rules, then figure the rest out as time goes by. Voilà: no need to employ anyone to do anything extra.

Where the potential difficulties UK-based companies will arise is in the development of new medicines and medical devices, which will need EU approval if they're to be used in any of the 500m EUropeans, and that's where the UK risks a steady loss of medical and pharma jobs over several years - and the associated contribution to GDP.

Folkstonian

J Mysterio wrote: »

You know well that the Scots kept the Union based on the status quo i.e. being part of the UK in the EU. They won't make that mistake again.

We shall see, I suppose. Your confidence would appear to be unfounded in the most recent of polls on independence though.

I’m sure there are a great many parallels between the English view of Scotland and the European view of Britain right now. It would be a great relief and a cause for moderate celebration when the moment of separation does finally come.

For too long have the SNP got away with blaming all their national ills on ‘Westminster!’

For too long has the political debate there been shamefully and utterly populist.

You, I expect, would debate on Europe in Britain in much the same regard.

AtomicHorror

CelticRambler wrote: »

As pointed out in an earlier post, Britain has the MHRA which is (for now) working as an EU-recognised regulatory body. It's role, post Brexit, will not change dramatically, so it's unlikely that there'll be hundreds of jobs to be filled. Why? Because the EMA was the coordinating body for the 28 national authorities; the UK will not need to coordinate itself (well ... :rolleyes: )

Furthermore, the MHRA has already published its post-Brexit plan, which is (in effect) to copy-and-paste everything the EU does/says/requires into UK rules, then figure the rest out as time goes by. Voilà: no need to employ anyone to do anything extra.

Where the potential difficulties UK-based companies will arise is in the development of new medicines and medical devices, which will need EU approval if they're to be used in any of the 500m EUropeans, and that's where the UK risks a steady loss of medical and pharma jobs over several years - and the associated contribution to GDP.

Yep.

I'm sure MHRA will expand, but if they need 900 bodies, or even 30% of that, it could only be due to some horrendous bureaucratic inefficiencies in that organisation.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

Thank you for your honest appraisal of my capacity for critical analysis and retention of knowledge.

I played no part in any political campaign, by the way. So I don’t know who the ‘you’ that you so aggressively refer to is.

I am not angry at the people that voted Brexit, I am angry at the people that lied to them to vote for Brexit. The line that you said about the warnings I believe was used by some MP to try and backhand away that they never warned people about the risks of leaving the EU. This includes that they will not have to leave the SM and was was told by various people as possible to do without taking all the rules.

If however you now believe this then I will question your ability for critical analysis. If you refuse to see the truth what else am I supposed to think?

VinLieger wrote: »

Pretty sure its been debunked well and truly and is just apocryphal

I see mention of it as originating from the River Thames and someone having a fight with a bridge over whether to move. Who knows, still funny though.

demfad

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I was just about to post that. What stunned me most of all is the sheer idiocy on display in the comments. "If we don't by it who will?", "Boo hoo no avocado", "Exactly who or what is going to stop foreign food entering the UK: The UK Government? The European farmers perhaps, worried that we won't cook their broccoli to European specifications?".

Presumably there are quite a lot of trolls at work, but the sheer number of people that seem to believe that the entire food production system in the EU only services the UK is utter madness.

There is an absolutely massive dark money online campaign pro no-deal Brexit in the UK at the moment.

At the same time they are trying to pack TV show audiences etc.

Politicians shouting empty Brexity slogans getting raptuous replies of applause cheering. Signs of remainer fatigue setting in against tireless disinformation. Polls are saying the opposite and if there is a referendum, remainers will turn out to the last person and win. But this is about creating the false impression of mass support for any out. Promoting the threat of mass civil strife when offline pro-Brexit marches are barely getting 50 people.

I was reading a book the other day (the hacking of democracy) where it used the metaphor of an elephant and elephant rider.

The elephant rider is a person's reason and the elephant was their emotion/personality. The theory is that if an elephant is inclined to go a certain direction the rider will rationalise this. This is opposed to traditional thinking which might have assumed that the elephant would be guided by the rider who made her mind up by unbiased reason.

In the late 1990s/early 2000s people finally started accurately categorising personality traits. In 2006 the first facebook test (online survey) was performed. It wasn't for politics but a huge sample was created and people started testing if personality had a bearing on what you bought, liked, or even how you voted. A colleague of this guy in Cambridge University (called Kogan) built up a bigger sample. Analtycs programs could look for patterns. This was what Bannon and Mercer bought into in 2013.
The method of slapping the data into a computer and letting the computer work out what the patterns were was how Mercer wrote his translation program at IBM (Google Talk, Siri based on).
Instead of trying to change peoples mind by talking to the rider (traditional approach) the apps tried to make people do or NOT do soemthing. Vote or NOT vote. They talked directly to the elephant.

Facebook data was extracted, analysed, and this informed the ads, data etc needed to meet objectives. This is why you are seeing the UK as you see it now.

And Cambrdge Analytica always used the front end AggregateIQ. So when you see the majority of Vote Leaves campaign pay money to AIQ (Vote leave paid half) and you see Cambridge Analytica all over LeaveEU and BetterOut.
You must realise the scale of conspiracy that occurred here and thats before acknowledging the Russian interference, Finance and like the US, coordination.

Remainers must start talking to the personality elephants as well as the rational riders now. I think this is ethically OK. As long as there is a rational approach to their position translating it into 'elephant' should be OK especially in this dire situation.

In UK, US and in Europe the elephant frequency needs to be accessed by right thinking people. Because as long as the fascists can remain unchallenged at this emotional level they will continue to make hay with impressionable people.

A Dub in Glasgo

Folkstonian wrote: »

We shall see, I suppose. Your confidence would appear to be unfounded in the most recent of polls on independence though.

Have you got a link to the recent opinion polls?

Water John

David Davis was being put forward as an option for PM within the last 2 years. Saying he was viewed as a figure of fun, is rewriting the facts.
I remember writing here, that having seen a performance from him of QT, that he was an idiot and how could people be considering him PM ,material.

Hurrache

Sabine Welyand speaks about what the English gov are up to at a press conference today
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1089893167250530306
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1089893589688160256

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Sabine Welyand speaks about what the English gov are up to at a press conference today
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1089893167250530306
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1089893589688160256

And if you were reading The Telegraph, it's just a matter of deciding what Britain wants, then nipping over to Brussels and telling them to get on with it.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And if you were reading The Telegraph, it's just a matter of deciding what Britain wants, then nipping over to Brussels and telling them to get on with it.

TBF to the Telegraph, the MP's are saying that as well.

Mr.Wemmick

Water John wrote: »

David Davis was being put forward as an option for PM within the last 2 years. Saying he was viewed as a figure of fun, is rewriting the facts.
I remember writing here, that having seen a performance from him of QT, that he was an idiot and how could people be considering him PM ,material.

I don't think they are. If anything this just highlights how the Tories have lost the run of themselves, Brexit and the country.

Might as well as have Larry the Downing Street cat run for PM.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF to the Telegraph, the MP's are saying that as well.

Yes but for different reasons. From The Telegraph's (Bojo, Tebbit, Bootle et al) point of view, it's simply a matter of waving away this pesky backstop, sorting out a few minor details and then tallyho. For a large majority of MPs, the backstop is a minor issue or isn't an issue at all. It's about hard, soft or no Brexit or another referendum.

seamus

AtomicHorror wrote: »

The European Medicines Agency closed up their Canary Wharf HQ on Friday after 24 years in London. That's 900 jobs to be relocated or re-staffed, not to mention knock-on effects as pharma companies re-allocate their regulatory-facing staff, some of whom will no longer be able to legally operate in the UK from April.

And the overall knock-on effect: This is damage that can't be undone.

Even if the UK were to pull article 50 and remain in the EU after all, companies won't relocate back. They have no reason to.

The existence of a place where an organisation could have an office is not enough to overcome inertia. There needs to be a push or pull factor. Brexit is a push factor. Cancelling Brexit is not a pull factor.

And inside the EU, the UK is limited in what it can do to pull companies away from other countries. Outside of the EU, it has nothing to offer as a pull factor. So the companies and organisations that have left or started leaving, are never coming back.

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Might as well as have Larry the Downing Street cat run for PM.

Right now, according to paddypower, the favourites to replace May are Boris and then Raab. Boris acts the clown, but don't let that fool you, he really is a clown underneath. Raab is so ignorant he doesn't even know he's ignorant.


And these are the favourites to lead the Tories after May.

ilovesmybrick

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1089899355346296832

So, now is the time for Theresa May to exploit the "chaos" in Brussels and Dublin and this is due to "intransigence" in Brussels and the Irish government exploiting Brexit for it's own "narrow political domestic aims".

Are we 100% sure Sammy Wilson isn't actually a troll or some form of candid camera comedian, because the alternative is kind of terrifying.

seamus

That reads like the kind of thing that you see shared around lunatic fringe groups on facebook.

Incredible that an elected politician could be so out of touch with reality.

CptMackey

Sammy Wilson the gift that keeps on giving. It's really crazy just how blind the brexiters are.

No deal is looking more likely everyday. Can't see may doing anything to get the wa through

VinLieger

Sammy lives in his own world

demfad

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1089899355346296832

So, now is the time for Theresa May to exploit the "chaos" in Brussels and Dublin and this is due to "intransigence" in Brussels and the Irish government exploiting Brexit for it's own "narrow political domestic aims".

Are we 100% sure Sammy Wilson isn't actually a troll or some form of candid camera comedian, because the alternative is kind of terrifying.

Sammy was Nigel Farage's man in the DUP.
The question will come up who in the DUP pushed for the deal with AIQ. If Brexit happens they have won and will have greater control over covering up the many crimes committed to secure Brexit.

J Mysterio

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1089899355346296832

So, now is the time for Theresa May to exploit the "chaos" in Brussels and Dublin and this is due to "intransigence" in Brussels and the Irish government exploiting Brexit for it's own "narrow political domestic aims".

Are we 100% sure Sammy Wilson isn't actually a troll or some form of candid camera comedian, because the alternative is kind of terrifying.

Even if there were 'EU chaos, which there isn't, 'exploit' is a very significant choice of word. Also mentions getting rid of GFA, never mind the lies and calling Leo naive etc. what a jackass.

Havockk

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Odd, I remember that concern being mostly dismissed, with vague suggestions that an EEA style arrangement (but not EEA) would probably allow for EMA and EBA to stay in London. In the run-up to the referendum, that sort of reply seemed to be sufficient to deflect the matter.

Anyway, beside the point. It happened on Friday. That is news for the 900 staff, thousands of dependents and the wider pharma industry, and it is news that has been carefully ignored.



Weird suggestion. Why would the UK need it's own EU regulator? It has MHRA to handle local functions, they'll just need to take back the approvals process. They won't be recruiting 900 new staff for that. The point about EU QPPVs, regulatory and PV departments wanting to co-locate with EMA still stands. Future investment will also take a hit.

I specifically remember Daniel Hannan saying that the UK were leaving the EU, not the SM and CU.

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

I specifically remember Daniel Hannan saying that the UK were leaving the EU, not the SM and CU.

He's featured in this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

These people just threw out whatever combination of words they thought would yield a leave win.

An Ciarraioch

The good news appears to be that the Brady amendment on the backstop looks to be dead:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1089926495194222595

Havockk

This just gets messier and messier. Does anyone remember a story some time ago about a young woman from the North and her US husband? The UK just never bothered to fully implement the terms of the GFA...

http://eamonnmallie.com/2019/01/how-brexit-is-going-to-expose-the-failure-to-implement-irish-citizenship-provisions-of-the-gfa-by-daniel-holder/