Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Could someone fill me in briefly on what has happened in the last two days or so? I didn't even realise there was a big vote in Parliament yesterday. Cheers.

Borderhopper

Hurrache wrote: »

Trying to insist that the negotiations are not about trust, but practicalities.

She has always been a few steps removed from the reality of Brexit when on radio, pretty much all propaganda.

Whilst also talking about good faith minutes previously. I've heard this whole process as being akin to standing and watching someone trying to play chicken with a train. Everyone's telling thrm it's a bad idea, but they won't listen. And it wouldn't be so serious for us except we're handcuffed to them

seamus

Bambi wrote: »

Now that theyve voted ro rule out a no deal brexit, how do they intend to enforce it? Mad stuff

In effect what Westminster declared last night was;

- "We will not accept the deal"

- "We will not leave without a deal"

- "We will not ask for an extension of Article 50"

What's kind of crazy is that if you're a Brexiter and you read these 3 statements, you will come to the conclusion that, "The EU must relent and give us a new deal now that we have stated our position. There's no other way out of this."

When to anyone else, the logical outcome is that the UK must cancel Brexit if it wants to get out of this mess and satisfy the 3 statements above.

There must be a lot of people praising their gods that the ECJ ruled A50 could be withdrawn unilaterally. If that wasn't possible, there would be literally no hope for the UK at all.

mrbrianj

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But are we not saying the same thing here with regards to a no deal ?

Brit- bashing seems to be the order of the day, and not without reason, but has anyone here given serious thought to the implications of a no deal Brexit ?

I would not mind a bit of guidance myself from government or other agency.

Questions like this for example. I have an Ulster Bank account, it's a UK based company, should I switch to an Irish bank ?

In fairness, there are constant radio and newspaper ads from the government pointing to the brexit ready supports and advice. Enterprise Ireland especially, and virtually every other government agency have advice or supports in place - how much use they are to business or individuals I don't really know, but it is there.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just on this, it is the one criticism I have of the government in relation to Brexit. They have been far to slow to publicly state the actual implications of a no deal. They should be out telling people the answers to the basic questions. What happens to UK based pensions, bank accounts. What about holidays booked through the UK. What is going to happen in regards to planned holiday to France through Eurotunnel.

IMO, people need to start being told of the practical outcome of a non deal so that we can start to prepare. They seem to have hitched their horse completely to getting a deal and seem unwilling or unable to be able to countenance anything else

But nobody knows what the implications will actually be, which is why the brexit mob can get away with claiming that talk of the apocolypse is all just project fear. Until anyone knows what the end agreement is actually going to be it's not really possible to figure out how things will operate, and until anyone knows how things are going to operate you can't really make any claims about how bad things will be without people claiming you are just making it up.

So we are all just sat around waiting to see what happens.

Fr Tod Umptious

mrbrianj wrote: »

In fairness, there are constant radio and newspaper ads from the government pointing to the brexit ready supports and advice. Enterprise Ireland especially, and virtually every other government agency have advice or supports in place - how much use they are to business or individuals I don't really know, but it is there.

I may be time to start broadening the focus of such campaigns to include individuals as well as business as the clock ticks.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

The Financial Services providing such products would have already made appropriate plans for such eventuality.

There's no much out government can do or say about the Eurotunnel though.

They could at least start preparing the public for what is likely to happen. They must be planning on his basis, if not we really are screwed.

Why not let the wider public know what to expect. I fear that the majority pf people, like in the UK, are simply under the impression that something will work itself out, that nothing is really going to change.

That is only true if the UK remain, all other scenarios mean thing will change to a greater or lessor extent.

I just think there is a vacuum of information being left, and we all know that vacuum look to fill with whatever is around. When people are faced with the situation of higher prices, issues with travel through the UK etc, I think many might start to question why Ireland didn't give in to the UK.

Remember that we get a lot of out media from the UK, so their version (its all Ireland's fault) its being allowed to permeate.

Leroy42

robinph wrote: »

But nobody knows what the implications will actually be, which is why the brexit mob can get away with claiming that talk of the apocolypse is all just project fear. Until anyone knows what the end agreement is actually going to be it's not really possible to figure out how things will operate, and until anyone knows how things are going to operate you can't really make any claims about how bad things will be without people claiming you are just making it up.

So we are all just sat around waiting to see what happens.

So nobody can ever plan for anything until the final outcome is fully known? That is a crazy idea. You make contingencies, you run awareness campaigns.

This is not about stating what will happen, but letting people know the practical outcome of certain outcomes. Deal or No deal will have widely different effects on Ireland and these could be, should be, put out to the general public.

Apparently we are a mature and responsible nation, yet apparently we cannot handle being told what might happen

Penn

Deleted User wrote: »

Could someone fill me in briefly on what has happened in the last two days or so? I didn't even realise there was a big vote in Parliament yesterday. Cheers.

They voted on different Amendments they want to push for in the Withdrawal Agreement. They voted against ruling out No Deal, against extending Article 50, and voted to change the Backstop agreement in May's previous deal. So now they have to go back to the EU to negotiate against the Backstop, even though a) the EU are as firm as they've ever been that the backstop can't be taken out of the deal unless there's an appropriate and suitable replacement, and b) the UK don't have an appropriate and suitable replacement. Even this morning Tory MPs have said in interviews that they're "exploring options" but have no actual solutions or ideas. Which means the EU will again reject it, and nothing changes except pushing UK closer to No Deal.

So as someone on Twitter pointed out, Theresa May won a huge victory yesterday by voting against the deal she spent two years negotiating and which she claimed a few weeks ago was the only and best deal possible and was best for the country.

Dyr

seamus wrote: »

In effect what Westminster declared last night was;

- "We will not accept the deal"

- "We will not leave without a deal"

- "We will not ask for an extension of Article 50"

What's kind of crazy is that if you're a Brexiter and you read these 3 statements, you will come to the conclusion that, "The EU must relent and give us a new deal now that we have stated our position. There's no other way out of this."

When to anyone else, the logical outcome is that the UK must cancel Brexit if it wants to get out of this mess and satisfy the 3 statements above.

There must be a lot of people praising their gods that the ECJ ruled A50 could be withdrawn unilaterally. If that wasn't possible, there would be literally no hope for the UK at all.

That's the thing though, the only surefire way they have now to prevent a hard Brexit is to withdraw Article 50 altogether, and then all hell breaks loose.

Penn

Penn wrote: »

They voted on different Amendments they want to push for in the Withdrawal Agreement. They voted against ruling out No Deal, against extending Article 50, and voted to change the Backstop agreement in May's previous deal. So now they have to go back to the EU to negotiate against the Backstop, even though a) the EU are as firm as they've ever been that the backstop can't be taken out of the deal unless there's an appropriate and suitable replacement, and b) the UK don't have an appropriate and suitable replacement. Even this morning Tory MPs have said in interviews that they're "exploring options" but have no actual solutions or ideas. Which means the EU will again reject it, and nothing changes except pushing UK closer to No Deal.

So as someone on Twitter pointed out, Theresa May won a huge victory yesterday by voting against the deal she spent two years negotiating and which she claimed a few weeks ago was the only and best deal possible and was best for the country.

That is as ridiculous as I expected I suppose. Would be some craic if May walked into an empty room ready to negotiate.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

So nobody can ever plan for anything until the final outcome is fully known? That is a crazy idea. You make contingencies, you run awareness campaigns.

Every manufacturer, exporter, retailer, importer, transport company and bank that I know has been working on contingencies for the last two and a half years.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Could someone fill me in briefly on what has happened in the last two days or so? I didn't even realise there was a big vote in Parliament yesterday. Cheers.

The UK negotiated a maze in the HoC and found itself back to where it started last week

j8wk2feszrnpao

Leroy42 wrote: »

She is relevant in that she has a clear understanding of the inner workings and thinking of the Tory party. (in an overall sense at least)

She was a high level politician and so knows about the reality behind the scenes that the public see, the horsetrading, the back biting etc.

Doesn't matter what her role once was. There's plenty of people who had similar roles and from a more relevant time.

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is also easy to dismiss the likes of Johnson, JRM etc as outliers within the Tory party, but Edwina (whom I think voted remain) is very much of the view that whatever suits the Tory party is the best option and that people like JRM are not the outliers we think they are.

She's might be important in a British or Tory Party context, cause that's their main focus. But for Brexit and the next stage, she is pretty much irrelevant as she doesn't add any value.

Hurrache

mrbrianj wrote: »

In fairness, there are constant radio and newspaper ads from the government pointing to the brexit ready supports and advice. Enterprise Ireland especially, and virtually every other government agency have advice or supports in place - how much use they are to business or individuals I don't really know, but it is there.

And there's a load of those ads played before radio streams on online radio such as the Communicorp stations.

Fr Tod Umptious

First Up wrote: »

Every manufacturer, exporter, retailer, importer, transport company and bank that I know has been working on contingencies for the last two and a half years.

But what does that mean for me with reagard to putting food on the table, clothes on my back, petrol in my car, access to goods, financial services etc etc.

That's what we need to be informed about.

Hurrache

Simon Coveney on Sean O'Rourke now.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But what does that mean for me with reagard to putting food on the table, clothes on my back, petrol in my car, access to goods, financial services etc etc.

That's what we need to be informed about.

https://www.dfa.ie/brexit/getting-ireland-brexit-ready/brexit-and-you/

First Up

Fr Tod Umptious wrote:

But what does that mean for me with reagard to putting food on the table, clothes on my back, petrol in my car, access to goods, financial services etc etc.

That's what we need to be informed about.

It means that the people who provide you with such things are working on how they will be able to continue to do so, within the realities of how the UK's departure from the EU turns out. They are at least as anxious about this as you are.

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

So we are all just sat around waiting to see what happens.

It is still quite possible that nothing will happen - they could call the whole thing off.

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is still quite possible that nothing will happen - they could call the whole thing off.

That would shatter the conservative party so i really don;t see it happening since this whole project has been about one thing only and thats uniting the conservative party

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

So nobody can ever plan for anything until the final outcome is fully known? That is a crazy idea. You make contingencies, you run awareness campaigns.

This is not about stating what will happen, but letting people know the practical outcome of certain outcomes. Deal or No deal will have widely different effects on Ireland and these could be, should be, put out to the general public.

Apparently we are a mature and responsible nation, yet apparently we cannot handle being told what might happen

Of course the government can plan and make preparations for multiple potential outcomes, big businesses can plan and make preparations for multiple outcomes. When it comes to telling individuals to do something though it's really a different matter and is more likely to cause a self fulfilling prophecy than anything else.

If they push a message about there being a potential shortage of medicines to the general public too much then all that will happen is they create a shortage of medicines as people stockpile. If they tell everyone to move their money out of some financial institution because it is at risk, then you just create a run on that and it crashes. By keeping the contingency planning amongst government and big business is sensible in order to stop creating the problems that you are trying to avoid from happening.

As much as we all hate it they have to remain vague towards the population at large.

Winters

Deleted User wrote: »

That is as ridiculous as I expected I suppose. Would be some craic if May walked into an empty room ready to negotiate.

A room with no table, and the exit door open..

bob mcbob

downcow wrote: »

I am only dipping in to roi media and news programmes but looking from outside roi they seem to be doing you a disservice. It seems they are currently just mouthpieces for government. They are speaking as one voice. They seem afraid to even mention the possibility of negotiations opening, which suggests to me they and the politicians know rightly that more negotiations are a real possibility.
British media is discussing all possibilities
For a moment forget how certain you are that negotiations are over. Can you not see what I am saying about the politicians and media supporting each other (and indeed you guys on here)?

All these phrases like liers etc being used for TM etc for suggesting that negotiations may open again on backstpp. Will you guys call your politicians and Eu politicians liers etc, if backstop is amended??

I am honest enough to say I ‘think’ the backstop will be amended. Of course I am not certain. You guys are either certain or you are unsure and scarred to show any chinks in your thinking.

Interesting days ahead

Ok an interesting perspective you take offence at the Irish media and hold the British media up as some shining example to follow. So tell me

- How do you feel about the Daily Mail calling supreme court judges "Enemies of the People" because they judged a case on the rule of law against brexiteers.
- How do you feel about the Daily Telegraph branding Tories MPs as "mutineers" because they had a different political view than the newspaper.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

It is still quite possible that nothing will happen - they could call the whole thing off.

Nobody is depending on that.

Shelga

I'm confused about some of the amendments last night- the Yvette Cooper one to extend article 50 and rule out no deal failed- but another one aimed more indirectly at ruling out no deal did pass by a margin of 8?

Can anyone explain what this second one is? I'm struggling to find info about it, made more difficult by the fact that the UK political establishment is currently eating itself, and two directly opposing statements can now seemingly be true.

Macy0161

Shelga wrote: »

Can anyone explain what this second one is?

The second one was none binding/ has no legislation planned to make it law. Just a statement of intent (hence more felt comfortable/ had cover to back it).

VinLieger

Shelga wrote: »

I'm confused about some of the amendments last night- the Yvette Cooper one to extend article 50 and rule out no deal failed- but another one aimed more indirectly at ruling out no deal did pass by a margin of 8?

Can anyone explain what this second one is? I'm struggling to find info about it, made more difficult by the fact that the UK political establishment is currently eating itself, and two directly opposing statements can now seemingly be true.

It passed because it was non-binding whereas the cooper one was binding, so it passed because its good for optics for some of them but they can also continue kicking the can down the road without having to do anything of substance

Leroy42

I know the government are working behind the scenes and working with business to try to deal with Brexit, but that is no twhat I am talking about.

I am talking out Joe and Jane down the road. Will there be a shortage of some foodstuffs? What about flights going though Heathrow to other destinations. Are we still covered on holiday insurance if the provider is UK based, and how can we be certain they are now?

Should we expect delays in imports. For example, you are awaiting a new car in April is that likely to put delayed?

AS I said, it the only thing I have an issue with as I meet too many people that are simply seeing Brexit as something that is going to effect the UK. Flanagan was on Claire Byrne the other night and answered nothing. He simply stuck to the line that the UK need to accept the deal.

robinph

Shelga wrote: »

I'm confused about some of the amendments last night- the Yvette Cooper one to extend article 50 and rule out no deal failed- but another one aimed more indirectly at ruling out no deal did pass by a margin of 8?

Can anyone explain what this second one is? I'm struggling to find info about it, made more difficult by the fact that the UK political establishment is currently eating itself, and two directly opposing statements can now seemingly be true.

The Cooper one would have meant that no deal wasn't a possibility.

The one which passed said they would prefer that it didn't end in no deal.

Basically it was just so that the MP's can claim that they tried to prevent no deal, but they didn't need to commit themselves to it properly.