Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Podge_irl

Akrasia wrote: »

TM has rejected Corbyns no confidence motion. They're not going to make time for the vote.

So Labour will almost certainly call for a no confidence vote in the government under the fixed time parliament act some time today which would mean a vote this week and a Potential GE campaign over the Christmas

Conservatives won't lose a confidence motion. The DUP for all their posturing certainly don't want an election which could either put Labour in power or remove their influence over the Conservatives.

FreudianSlippers

I don't think the DUP would come back with a positive result in a GE now tbh.

flatty

Podge_irl wrote: »

Conservatives won't lose a confidence motion. The DUP for all their posturing certainly don't want an election which could either put Labour in power or remove their influence over the Conservatives.

Agreed. Corbyn has blinked himself into a corner. Labour really really should get shot of him.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

UK has stated clearly they will absolutely not be creating any border in ireland and wto can’t insist.

The very fact that the UK is leaving the EU means they are creating a border, whether the rest of us like it or not, and one that is inevitably harder than it was before because the Brexiteers have stated that they want to diverge from the EU's rules and regulations.

On your side of that border, according to WTO rules, if the UK allows one cow or one litre of milk to be brought into NI from the EU without being checked, then every country in the world can send their cattle, beef and dairy products into the UK without any checks.

Subsequently, because the UK will have demonstrated that it imposes no checks on its imports, exports of all British beef and dairy products to the EU will be banned - exactly the same way as China banned beef after the BSE epidemic.

How will that affect the price of your herd? Do you really want British & NI farmers to have to compete with the Argentinians and the Americans for space in fridges of Tesco and Sainsburys? Because every time someone says "we don't want a hard border" and promises not to put up controls, that's what they're telling you.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

If there is a General Election is it UK wide?

As in could the DUP lose seats in NI?

LeinsterDub

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

If there is a General Election is it UK wide?

As in could the DUP lose seats in NI?

Yes and yes.

cml387

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

If there is a General Election is it UK wide?

As in could the DUP lose seats in NI?

Yes, it includes NI. And yes, DUP could lose (or gain) seats.

downcow

Leroy42 wrote: »

So rather than simply repost slogans and talking points, such as the "UK have no intention of a hard border", surely at this stage in the game the answer of how they intend to avoid this is required rather than simply restating it.

I feel this is the crux of the issue. So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.
I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.
I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected. If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.
Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

FreudianSlippers

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

If there is a General Election is it UK wide?

As in could the DUP lose seats in NI?

There are regional/local/assembly elections in the UK (except no assembly in England) but a general election is a general election.

downcow

Having said that I do recognise most on here believe the Eu is wonderfully angelic and the UK is evil for wanting out

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Having said that I do recognise most on here believe the Eu is wonderfully angelic and the UK is evil for wanting out

Do you think that that's a worthwhile contribution to discussion?

Captain Obvious

Podge_irl wrote: »

Conservatives won't lose a confidence motion. The DUP for all their posturing certainly don't want an election which could either put Labour in power or remove their influence over the Conservatives.

Not a chance it would succeed but it shows the Tories who wanted to get May out as preferring power over what's best for country.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I feel this is the crux of the issue. So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.
I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.
I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected. If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.
Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

The UK can leave (like everyone else) anytime they want. They want a deal however and have gotten one, which they can take or leave too.
They cannot however leave with a deal that leaves them better off at the expense of us left in the EU.

So it is over to them, take it or leave it.

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

Do you think that that's a worthwhile contribution to discussion?

Probably not. Apologies. But it would be helpful if all sides considered how they could assist the other and recognised own faults.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

Having said that I do recognise most on here believe the Eu is wonderfully angelic and the UK is evil for wanting out

lawred2 wrote: »

Do you think that that's a worthwhile contribution to discussion?

Enough of this please.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The UK can leave (like everyone else) anytime they want. They want a deal however and have gotten one, which they can take or leave too.
They cannot however leave with a deal that leaves them better off at the expense of us left in the EU.

So it is over to them, take it or leave it.

Yeah that is very fair position. But I still feel strongly that the gfa should not have been trailed through this to aid one position unfairly

Laois_Man

flatty wrote: »

Agreed. Corbyn has blinked himself into a corner. Labour really really should get shot of him.

I don't know what you think Corbyn could have done differently that would have given a no confidence motion in the Government a chance of success.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yeah that is very fair position. But I still feel strongly that the gfa should not have been trailed through this to aid one position unfairly

What is unfair about protecting an agreement that underscores a political settlement and peace on this entire island and the rights of people contained therein?

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.

The EU has provided a solution - the deal is on the table.

I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.

How have the EU in any way tried to "hold on" to the UK? The EU has done nothing but attempt to negotiate a structured withdrawal with a UK that doesn't know what it wants.

I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected.

The UK ratified all changes to the EU since it joined, including and especially the Maastricht Treaty - in fact all major political parties in the UK had ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in their manifestos.

If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.

How so?

Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

This is just pure nonsense talking point fluff. The EU is not undemocratic as has been shown in multiple posts across the various threads.

robinph

downcow wrote: »

I feel this is the crux of the issue. So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.
I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.
I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected. If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.
Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

The UK has to first extract itself from pre-existing situations with Ireland before the two states can either enter or leave a customs union/ trading block/ free travel area/ etc.

Ireland couldn't join the EU without the UK also joining, the UK cannot leave without Ireland also leaving. Until NI becomes a separate entity from the rest of the UK, or also separate from the rest of Ireland, then there is no exit. Even then there are a bunch of other systems that keep Ireland and the UK tied together far tighter than either is tied to the EU.

You could claim that it is Ireland stopping the UK leaving the EU, but only in as far as it is the UK that is stopping itself from leaving the EU because of ties to Ireland. Leaving the EU is the simple bit, the UK just forgot it was inextricably linked to Ireland and the EU is quite rightly ensuring that the UK remembers that.

funkey_monkey

Yes, it includes NI. And yes, DUP could lose (or gain) seats.

The most marginal seats in NI are:

1 Foyle (SF) 0.4%
2 Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF) 1.6%
3 North Down (Ind) 3.1%
4 Belfast North (DUP) 4.5%
5 Belfast South (DUP) 4.6%


Foyle is a two way battle between SF and SDLP - majority only 169.
F & ST was won by SF with a majority of 875 - despite DUP not fielding a candidate.
Lady Hermon had a 1k majority over DUP as UUP did not field a candidate.
North Belfast had a 2k majority - due to UUP not running an candidate.
I would expect ELP to have a tough time hanging onto South Belfast despite a 2k majority.

I would not expect DUP to gain any seats next time around. I would actually expect them to lose South Belfast as the demographics of that area would be mostly middle class people who will be badly affected by the DUP approach to Brexit.
They might be enough of a swing towards Alliance or UUP to allow SDLP to steal back the seat - providing UUP and DUP do not agree a pact for this constituency for the next election. If they do, then it would be safe for the chosen unionist candidate.

dr.fuzzenstein

downcow wrote: »

Probably not. Apologies. But it would be helpful if all sides considered how they could assist the other and recognised own faults.

What faults?
If there is a hard border, it will be ENTIRELY down to the UK.
Do you think the EU will say "Of course, because you're old buddies of ours, we will throw every rule overboard"
EU is trying it's best to avoid that, despite the UK fighting an agreement tooth and nail

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is unfair about protecting an agreement that underscores a political settlement and peace on this entire island and the rights of people contained therein?

Do you not understand that if borders in ireland upset nationalists and threaten the peace, then borders in the Irish Sea upset unionists and equally threaten the peace. Unless you believe the threat is all from republicans and that loyalists are nice guys that offer no threat. That’s what I feel is unfair in the current Eu/ire analysis / manipulation. I am seriously interested in what you think about this?

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

Probably not. Apologies. But it would be helpful if all sides considered how they could assist the other and recognised own faults.

Maybe think of it this way:

You're divorcing your partner and leaving the house so you can hopefully go score some sweet young thang. Your partner engages with the divorce negotiation, but you're demanding that you get to keep living in the house, you expect three hot meals a day, but you're not going to contribute to the bills and none of the house rules apply to you.

Who's being unreasonable in that situation? Why should your partner consider "how they could assist the other and [recognise] [their] own faults"

Skelet0n

According to Politico:

How not to behave at parties: So who was the “tired and emotional” journalist who got chucked out of the party after heckling the Irish ambassador at his own event? Playbook’s lips are sealed, of course, and the unflappable Adrian O’Neill took it all in his stride. It all kicked off after the jokey part of O’Neill’s speech was over, and he moved into a serious section about the importance of maintaining strong relations between Britain and Ireland. As the audience listened quietly, our charming heroine yelled “boring” at him from the back of the room. O’Neill paused, good-naturedly replied that this was the serious bit of his speech, and continued. But as he spoke of the importance of avoiding a hard border across Ireland, she started grimacing and tutting … and then shouting “Brexit!” at the top of her voice. And if you’ve ever been to an ambassador’s party at a foreign embassy, you’ll realize this is generally not the done thing. Suffice to say she was escorted from the room. Getting thrown out of an *Irish embassy* party for being too rowdy … I mean, it’s an achievement, I guess.

Laois_Man

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is unfair about protecting an agreement that underscores a political settlement and peace on this entire island and the rights of people contained therein?

Worth pointing out - the agreement also put an end to IRA bombs going off in England. They seem to have forgotten that somehow!

robinph

funkey_monkey wrote: »

The most marginal seats in NI are:

1 Foyle (SF) 0.4%
2 Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF) 1.6%
3 North Down (Ind) 3.1%
4 Belfast North (DUP) 4.5%
5 Belfast South (DUP) 4.6%


Foyle is a two way battle between SF and SDLP - majority only 169.
F & ST was won by SF with a majority of 875 - despite DUP not fielding a candidate.
Lady Hermon had a 1k majority over DUP as UUP did not field a candidate.
North Belfast had a 2k majority - due to UUP not running an candidate.
I would expect ELP to have a tough time hanging onto South Belfast despite a 2k majority.

I would not expect DUP to gain any seats next time around. I would actually expect them to lose South Belfast as the demographics of that area would be mostly middle class people who will be badly affected by the DUP approach to Brexit.
They might be enough of a swing towards Alliance or UUP to allow SDLP to steal back the seat - providing UUP and DUP do not agree a pact for this constituency for the next election. If they do, then it would be safe for the chosen unionist candidate.

Would only need the SF to SDLP switch and the ratios are all changed and an extra seat would be needed for a majority in Westminster due to an extra MP turning up.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

Having said that I do recognise most on here believe the Eu is wonderfully angelic and the UK is evil for wanting out

Ah I've had enough of the poor us from you.

The UK can leave the EU. The UK can even repudiate the GFA in doing so. The UK can't however then expect the EU to do anything but take a very dim view of that.

The GFA secures NI's place in the UK and the deal was done on the premise that northern nationalists could pretend the border wasn't really there. If you put a visible border in there (the UK leaving the EU causes this) then you have repudiated the GFA.

The EU is prepared to make an exception for NI so it can remain in the single market and customs union. Northern Ireland leave voters (overwhelmingly protestants) can suck it up now and live with a less close relationship to GB to preserve the GFA or they can accept the economic consequences (along with mainland UK leave voters) as a result of really pissing off the largest trading bloc in the world.

This mess is of your making. Clean it up and stop blaming Dublin.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that if borders in ireland upset nationalists and threaten the peace, then borders in the Irish Sea upset unionists and equally threaten the peace. Unless you believe the threat is all from republicans and that loyalists are nice guys that offer no threat. That’s what I feel is unfair in the current Eu/ire analysis / manipulation. I am seriously interested in what you think about this?

An Irish sea border has zero negative impact on Northern Ireland.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

I feel this is the crux of the issue. So many people have decided that it is entirely the uks responsibility to provide the answers to this problem.
I completely accept that it is a significant problem but I don’t accept that there is a Devine right for Eu to hold on to states and perceive it as the states fault if it’s peolle decide they want out.
I think it was 74 the UK people voted to join the common market and I believe would vote in a massive majority to do that again. Those that didn’t want to go I’m accepted it was democracy and work politically to get out. In 2016 Uk voted to leave a very different beast and that should be respected. If that was the starting point there would b hope of agreement but from day one Eu and ireland tried to undermine that democratic decision and most infuriatingly used the hard won gfa as the battering ram.
Those who want back in can work politically for that. If Eu transformed then I would also be working to rejoin but Eu has became arrogant, undemocratic, and on UK exit downright difficult

But no one, repeat no one, is stopping the UK from leaving. The EU has tried to simutaneously protect itself (and that is what the Backstop is all about) whilst trying to facilitate a leaving member so as to continue as easily as possible to trade with it.

So the EU have provided options that it feels suit that dual role. The UK have offered nothing except pleas for special treatment.

So what are the UK offering to offset the, very clear and real issues, that the NI border will throw up? What solutions have they come up with? MaxFac?

How are they proposing to protect the integrity of their own market, never mind the EU if not by controlling the border? The only solution appears to be to simply ignore the problem and say you deal with it.

The UK are quite entitled to leave, just as the EU are quite entitled to request they pay for their financial obligations. They are also quite entitled to seek to limit the damage to itself and Ireland (as it will bear the brunt).

That the UK entered into the GFA, one must assume backed by the democratic votes as all the people since no Anti GFA ever got a majority, why should they be simply be allowed to ignore it now.

TM should have been upfront and open with the public. They can't have an open border and diverged regulations. It is one of the other. And if they want both, then the border must be moved somewhere else, hence the Irish Sea. So, actually, the EU have tried very hard to accommodate the UK wishes, yet the UK and posters here, continue to claim that the EU is bullying the EU.

Threats of witholding their financial obligations unless the get a better deal. Thats bullying. Giving a departing member options is not.