Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Purgative

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The UK negotiated a maze in the HoC and found itself back to where it started last week

Yes. Except that TM has now positioned herself against the EU and with a biggish chunk of the HoC behind her.


Maybe the place will crash and burn but she keep on fighting the good fight - quite the Churchill.

10000maniacs

I cannot believe Sean O' Rourke on RTE now giving Simon Coveney a torrid time about not negotiating with May on a replacement to the backstop. It would be political suicide for either Fine Gael or the EU to rip out the backstop. Unbelievable listening. What are RTE playing at?

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

It passed because it was non-binding whereas the cooper one was binding, so it passed because its good for optics for some of them but they can also continue kicking the can down the road without having to do anything of substance

As Davis said on LBC this morning, of course people voted for it as there was no consequence. So better to be able to say you never wanted no deal, but that doesn't mean it changes anything.

That is how the Tories are looking at it.

I have a feeling that the EU will take a different view. They will see that the HoC voted to not allow a no deal and as such it is up to TM to now deliver on that.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: There have been plenty of warnings about insults. Please cut it out or I'll have to issue bans.

Joe_ Public

10000maniacs wrote: »

I cannot believe Sean O' Rourke on RTE now giving Simon Coveney a torrid time about not negotiating with May on a replacement to the backstop. It would be political suicide for either Fine Gael or the EU to rip out the backstop. Unbelievable listening. What are RTE playing at?

I guess it’s called playing devils advocate. Hardly a presenters job to take sides and give any side an easy ride, whatever the position.

VinLieger

Purgative wrote: »

Yes. Except that TM has now positioned herself against the EU and with a biggish chunk of the HoC behind her.


Maybe the place will crash and burn but she keep on fighting the good fight - quite the Churchill.

Comparing may with Churchill is laughable

10000maniacs

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: There have been plenty of warnings about insults. Please cut it out or I'll have to issue bans.

Who was insulting? Was it me?

ancapailldorcha

10000maniacs wrote: »

Who was insulting? Was it me?

No. I deleted the post in question.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

As Davis said on LBC this morning, of course people voted for it as there was no consequence. So better to be able to say you never wanted no deal, but that doesn't mean it changes anything.

That is how the Tories are looking at it.

I have a feeling that the EU will take a different view. They will see that the HoC voted to not allow a no deal and as such it is up to TM to now deliver on that.

The only two votes which passed were ones that they knew were completely worthless.

They didn't even pass the one that would have given themselves more time to discuss things before the 29th March by cancelling the holidays and making themselves work on Fridays.

Shelga

Macy0161 wrote: »

The second one was none binding/ has no legislation planned to make it law. Just a statement of intent (hence more felt comfortable/ had cover to back it).

Thanks for clearing that up.

What is the point of a non-binding amendment though? What an absolute waste of time. With 58 days to go until economic suicide, parliament still seems to revel in the ridiculousness of their traditions- they are like a baying mob- it is crazy to watch.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Leroy42 wrote: »

What about flights going though Heathrow to other destinations.

Have you asked the airline?

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are we still covered on holiday insurance if the provider is UK based, and how can we be certain they are now?

Have you asked the holiday provider?

Leroy42 wrote: »

For example, you are awaiting a new car in April is that likely to put delayed?

Have you asked the dealership?

Surely there is some onus on the individual themselves to try answer questions that will affect themselves?

We're in a difficult situation, not brought upon ourselves. We have Brexit on the horizon, for a number of years, yet we have UK politicians voting and arguing amongst themselves rather than actually getting on with it. May is about to go back to the EU again, and be told the same thing she was last time. It's difficult to move forward with preparations with all this occurring.

CrabRevolution

Leroy42 wrote: »

I know the government are working behind the scenes and working with business to try to deal with Brexit, but that is no twhat I am talking about.

I am talking out Joe and Jane down the road. Will there be a shortage of some foodstuffs? What about flights going though Heathrow to other destinations. Are we still covered on holiday insurance if the provider is UK based, and how can we be certain they are now?

Should we expect delays in imports. For example, you are awaiting a new car in April is that likely to put delayed?

AS I said, it the only thing I have an issue with as I meet too many people that are simply seeing Brexit as something that is going to effect the UK. Flanagan was on Claire Byrne the other night and answered nothing. He simply stuck to the line that the UK need to accept the deal.

But nobody has answers to the questions you're posing as we've no idea what will happen. All they can do is say "there may be disruption /delays /cancellations". There's literally thousands of stakeholders and chains that could be affected in hundreds of different ways by different laws and systems by whatever version of brexit transpires.

The very specific answers you're looking for don't exist.

There's no precedent really. Barring invasions and wars, no country before has ever had so much of its structures and systems wiped out in one go, never mind doing it voluntarily.

Infini

Purgative wrote: »

Yes. Except that TM has now positioned herself against the EU and with a biggish chunk of the HoC behind her.


Maybe the place will crash and burn but she keep on fighting the good fight - quite the Churchill.

Makes no difference in the end. If they choose to abandon logic and reason thats fine, if they choose not to respect other countries and the EU thats fine as well. If they choose to live in a delusion of their own making sure that's fine but when it come's down to it they're essentially playing chicken driving a mini against the EU driving a TRAIN.

The simple truth is those in parliament who continue to push this broken line that they can still negotiate and get their way will continue to delude themselves until either they realize at the last moment the colossal mistake they're about to make and that the EU WILL NOT COMPROMISE on its core beliefs and hit the brakes with A50 being cancelled and being forced to deal with the BS they whipped up at home over the last 40 years or they drive themselves off that cliff and utterly destroy themselves.

Everyone on this side has tried to warn them and tried to be reasonable but lets be clear: You cannot reason with idiots. They refuse to listen to facts or have any concerns about the common good of their people only their own defective ideology and party before country and if they choose to destroy themselves we ultimately can't stop them from doing it but neither will we simply just take the economic damage without their being consequences for the UK.

They'll pay for that mistake for a long time to come through trade and diplomatic consequences and they ultimately might not even exist within a decade because we know through all this that Scotland has a good chance of seceding during a 2nd indyref as they at this point were lied to during the first one (aka that twitter post that someone has kindly linked a good few times). As for NI while a UI is not something everyone want's polls have shown this becoming a distinct possibility down the line and this will come and bite the DUP in the áss soon enough expecially if they think they can ignore the majority wishes of NI, the buisness and farming community and think they can just "go to the chippy". Karma is a bítch as they say.

VinLieger

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Until migrants figure out they can use Ireland as a backdoor into UK and British papers scream murder.

Then suddenly all their bloviating about no need for a manned border on their side comes home to roost and they will be begging for a backstop arrangement or trying to ram a border down the Irish sea.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

I am talking out Joe and Jane down the road. Will there be a shortage of some foodstuffs? What about flights going though Heathrow to other destinations. Are we still covered on holiday insurance if the provider is UK based, and how can we be certain they are now?

The DFA website that was linked above give some answers but we don't know all the answers yet because we don't know what terms the UK will finally agree. Some supply chains may be disrupted but it won't leave empty shelves as retailers and importers are lining up new sources and supply routes. I'd be surprised if there weren't some changes but I don't think anyone will go hungry or short of medicines as a result.

Flights from Heathrow should not be affected but UK operators may not be able to operate between other EU countries.

I don't know enough about insurance to comment but people in that business (e.g a broker) should be up to speed.

joe40

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Until migrants figure out they can use Ireland as a backdoor into UK and British papers scream murder.

UK have shown they have no issues tearing up treaties and obligations, points at GFA and brexit in order to placate the brexiteers and xenophobes

Whatever about customs check, which would be disruptive and very problematic, any change to the free movement of people across the border would virtually guarantee a border poll and a united Ireland.

Literally 1000s of people are cross border workers in both directions, (I'm one of them) That cannot be impeded in any way.

downcow

VinLieger wrote: »

Maybe stop dipping into the the Irish media and start looking at the global reaction to the stunts being pulled in the UK, ill bet the majority is not much different to what you see in Ireland. That's what we are all doing as well btw nobody on here is just reading RTE and taking what they say as gospel unlike you apparently with your parroting of the standard daily mail/express talking points.


When Negotiations don't reopen will you agree you've been talking out of your arse?

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

joe40

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

Such as?

Dyr

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Until migrants figure out they can use Ireland as a backdoor into UK and British papers scream murder.

UK have shown they have no issues tearing up treaties and obligations, points at GFA and brexit in order to placate the brexiteers and xenophobes

Worth noting that the CTA is more a custom or gentleman's agreement than a treaty, not sure it's based on legislation at all.

gimli2112

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

I keep hearing this in the media but someone earlier made a good point that the EU have no such history of compromising on their core beliefs. Making concessions on trade deals is one thing, this is something else, I think.

Infini

joe40 wrote: »

Whatever about customs check, which would be disruptive and very problematic, any change to the free movement of people across the border would virtually guarantee a border poll and a united Ireland.

Literally 1000s of people are cross border workers in both directions, (I'm one of them) That cannot be impeded in any way.

As I said in a previous post what's likely to happen come March 29th is that they'll simply stop commercial traffic like trucks and vans crossing the border. It's likely to remain like that in the short term in anyways because whats likely in one regard is that the UK will be crippled so quickly by a sudden crash out that within a few weeks they'll be forced back to the table and have no choice in the matter to accept whatever the EU offers them at that point.

On a side note I do wonder if the "Border communities against Brexit" group will shift gear to a reunification movement if a Hard Brexit is inflicted on NI against the majority will of NI if it truly comes to that. Would say it would become a formidable movement expecially if teaming up with the Farmers and Buisness groups as the damage to NI will be certainly severe and this will be all thanks to the DUP.

Blowfish

Bambi wrote: »

Worth noting that the CTA is more a custom or gentleman's agreement than a treaty, not sure it's based on legislation at all.

While that's true, the Irish Gov have drafted the various elements of it in their contingency 'no-deal' legislation here: https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/brexitnegotations/General-Scheme-of-Miscellaneous-Provisions.pdf

Good news for NI at least is that it does stuff like guarantees that the all Ireland Energy grid can continue so at least the power wont go out.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

Because he said it doesn't mean it's true. Better people than he, former negotiators and the likes, have exposed this as a myth.

The UK still think it's their trump card.

seamus

gimli2112 wrote: »

I keep hearing this in the media but someone earlier made a good point that the EU have no such history of compromising on their core beliefs. Making concessions on trade deals is one thing, this is something else, I think.

UK politicians have a history of eleventh-hour deals and running things down to the wire.

They've made the mistake of assuming that the whole world is the same and that things will "come right" at the last minute because politics is about staring down an opponent until someone blinks.

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

This article by the BBC would beg to differ. It references Ireland, Denmark, Greece, the EU constitution and Cameron. In all cases, the body of the agreement remained unchanged. Of course a codicil can be added but the backstop will remain. Which, of course, won't satisfy the Brexiteers. No matter what deal May gets on the backstop it won't satisfy them anyway as the backstop is just a red herring.

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

Again you seem to be sticking to the already disproven mail/telegraph/express talking points, Galloway is talking out of his ar5e

Also to disprove your ridiculous theory that all politicians and media heads are singing from the same hymn sheet out of some fanciful fear of the inevitable listen to sean or rourke's interview with coveney from this morning.

ancapailldorcha

Bambi wrote: »

Worth noting that the CTA is more a custom or gentleman's agreement than a treaty, not sure it's based on legislation at all.

It's alluded to in various bits of legislation but you are essentially correct.

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

This has been brought up time and time again and never been supported with instances where this has happened. What has been proven is that the EU are extremely difficult negotiators to get one over on. They are quite prepared to walk away from a deal if the conditions aren't what they require. For example, the Belgians have referred CETA to the ECJ as they are not convinced that the deal complies with EU law. And this wil take its time and everyone is happy to wait. And if it turns out that they are right, the Canadians will be told it has to change or it's off.

MrMusician18

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Hey I agree, but Westminster obviously doesnt care for people outside of England, some might not even be able to point out northern ireland on a map I bet

Some would say it doesn't care about people North of the Watford gap, but maybe that's a discussion for another day

10000maniacs

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess it’s called playing devils advocate. Hardly a presenters job to take sides and give any side an easy ride, whatever the position.

O'Rourke was saying we need to throw May a bone of some sort to save 1000's of jobs in Ireland. How is this even possible?
The ERG only voted for the Brady amendment because she told them she would go to Brussels and get rid of the backstop from her deal. In 2 weeks time when the backstop is still there, the ERG will pull support from Mays deal.