Brexit Discussion Thread VI

L1011

trellheim wrote: »

Right so assuming its a hard brexit

What to start stocking up on ?

Assuming the HoC Caves or the EU caves at the last minute , or there isnt a deal this will still leave us at March 28th and everyone else will have emptied the shelves.... so what to buy ?

Learn how to bake bread if you eat it; flour, tinned food - tinned meat, veg, condensed milk possibly but I suspect this is one thing we won't have any shortage of

Realistically I suspect that even in the worst disruption there will be food available - beyond even the "sufficient" claim the UK has made for their own supplies. It may be that we have *different* food available though

Don't buy anything you don't use; continually use and re-stock rather than let the supply get old.

EdgeCase

I'd suspect there'll be a short disruption to some supplies but that most will just reroute and be replaced rather quickly. It's also worth noting that many of the products that we assume are made in the UK actually aren't.

A friend of mine was for some reason considering stockpiling things like household detergents. I was looking at the origins and in a lot of cases they're continental / pan-European products that are just localised with a UK & IE label.

E.g. Ariel's made in France, Fairly Liquid is made in Germany, a lot of products are made in Poland and parts of southern Europe. Most of our fresh vegetables and so on seem to come from NL, Spain and further afield.

We'll be missing some products but I've confidence in the fact that our supermarket chains aren't morons and are quite Irish-based and will be able to cope and adapt quite quickly.

Also Ireland has the advantage of being relatively small scale which makes switching logistics systems around a lot easier.

The UK is cutting itself off from one of the only two giant, mixed, stable consumer markets in the world. Ireland retains full access to that. My view of it is they're in a FAR worse position than we are and a lot of the headlines are about trying to cause panic here or trying to deflect attention from how dire the situation in the UK could become by using whataboutery tactics.

Leroy42

From the Guardian it seems that the press across Europe are fairly damning in their pieces about what transpired in the HoC yesterday.

The most alarming thing, at it least it should be from a UK perspective, is the numerous mentions that TM cannot be trusted.

It appears that the EU have no trust that TM will either stick to her word on any changes or even if they get changes be able to deliver the vote. If faced with another split will she simply cave again?

'May can no longer be trusted': European press condemns PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/30/theresa-may-can-no-longer-be-trusted-european-press-condemns-pm

Shelga

How much of their fresh food does the UK import?

Fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy, eggs etc- surely they produce a hell of a lot of this stuff themselves, and their internal market would grow, if farmers can no longer export as easily?

Anyone have any statistics on this?

Again, I think Brexit is completely moronic, but talk of people dying in their thousands is surely exaggeration?

snotboogie

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'd suspect there'll be a short disruption to some supplies but that most will just reroute and be replaced rather quickly. It's also worth noting that many of the products that we assume are made in the UK actually aren't.

A friend of mine was for some reason considering stockpiling things like household detergents. I was looking at the origins and in a lot of cases they're continental / pan-European products that are just localised with a UK & IE label.

E.g. Ariel's made in France, Fairly Liquid is made in Germany, a lot of products are made in Poland and parts of southern Europe. Most of our fresh vegetables and so on seem to come from NL, Spain and further afield.

We'll be missing some products but I've confidence in the fact that our supermarket chains aren't morons and are quite Irish-based and will be able to cope and adapt quite quickly.

Also Ireland has the advantage of being relatively small scale which makes switching logistics systems around a lot easier.

The UK is cutting itself off from one of the only two giant, mixed, stable consumer markets in the world. Ireland retains full access to that. My view of it is they're in a FAR worse position than we are and a lot of the headlines are about trying to cause panic here or trying to deflect attention from how dire the situation in the UK could become by using whataboutery tactics.

The issue is that 99% of the mainland European produce that comes to Ireland transits through the UK. I don't see much of anything in place to replace this in the case of a hard Brexit.

EdgeCase

Shelga wrote: »

How much of their fresh food does the UK import?

Fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy, eggs etc- surely they produce a hell of a lot of this stuff themselves, and their internal market would grow, if farmers can no longer export as easily?

Anyone have any statistics on this?

Again, I think Brexit is completely moronic, but talk of people dying in their thousands is surely exaggeration?

They actually export very, very little food as it is. The Republic of Ireland is their largest food export market (by a long shot) mostly because we buy packaged UK food / drink products due to brand familiarity and proximity.

Also a large % of UK food/drink exports to global markets is products like Scottish whisky as it's high value. There isn't that much in terms of food products.

The UK is completely incapable of meeting its own food needs and hasn't been able to do so since the industrial revolution. Basically, UK agricultural output is not sufficiently large scale to feed the population. They won't starve, they'll just pay a lot more for their food and have to switch to totally unfamiliar / potentially lower quality sources.

An Ciarraioch

All financial services gratefully received!

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1090604274080514053

EdgeCase

snotboogie wrote: »

The issue is that 99% of the mainland European produce that comes to Ireland transits through the UK. I don't see much of anything in place to replace this in the case of a hard Brexit.

A lot of it can be handled by simply moving ships into Irish service. There's already at least one Brexit buster ferry in place which can handle 14km of trucks at a time.

Logistically speaking, the Irish market is not THAT big or complicated to service. If there's a demand for shipping on Irish-continental routes, there'll be capacity brought on stream by moving ships from elsewhere.

Bear in mind that due to potential chaos at ports in the UK, there'll be less goods moving through which may result in excess ferry capacity moving from there to routes between here and France / Belgium.

Irishmale0399

snotboogie wrote: »

The issue is that 99% of the mainland European produce that comes to Ireland transits through the UK. I don't see much of anything in place to replace this in the case of a hard Brexit.

There are plans in place, know that first hand as I worked on them for a German company. Major supermarket chains can ship from France without any problems. The UK press are trying to put things like this out to try and swing the general opinion of the Irish public.

That would put pressure on Leo and co. however we dont have to worry...as the EU stands together on this one.

Hurrache

More Brexit dividend they all talk about

Edit: Beaten to it!

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1090604274080514053

ARNOLD J RIMMER

EdgeCase wrote: »

A lot of it can be handled by simply moving ships into Irish service. There's already at least one Brexit buster ferry in place which can handle 14km of trucks at a time.

Logistically speaking, the Irish market is not THAT big or complicated to service. If there's a demand for shipping on Irish-continental routes, there'll be capacity brought on stream by moving ships from elsewhere.

Bear in mind that due to potential chaos at ports in the UK, there'll be less goods moving through which may result in excess ferry capacity moving from there to routes between here and France / Belgium.

I would think that in the short term. The EU will subsidise cargo shipping from Ire > EU and visa versa

snotboogie

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

There are plans in place, know that first hand as I worked on them for a German company. Major supermarket chains can ship from France without any problems. The UK press are trying to put things like this out to try and swing the general opinion of the Irish public.

That would put pressure on Leo and co. however we dont have to worry...as the EU stands together on this one.

Are they increasing the number of sailings? Right now there are only 10 to 15 sailings per week combined between all ports and ferry companies in Ireland, i think.

Irishmale0399

snotboogie wrote: »

Are they increasing the number of sailings? Right now there are only 10 to 15 sailings per week combined between all ports and ferry companies in Ireland, i think.

Sailings could be increased if needed as well as alternatives which I cannot speak about. I think you will find the EU is right behind Ireland on this one and unlike the UK who have given contracts to a ferry company with no boats the EU are bring very realistic and have plans in place.


Heard today from a German cop that Ireland have been offered EU officers to patrol the border if needs be.

robinph

There may be issues with products making their way across the UK to Ireland from France, but that will just mean an initial delay I'd expect. Then an exemption for lorries destined for Ireland will be created at Dover so that they can reduce the backlog and get in the stuff destined for the UK more quickly. It would still be quicker to move stuff by truck through the UK and on a ferry at Holyhead and Dover than going direct between Ireland and France. A couple of boats doing 4 trips back and forth at either end of the UK will move far more freight than one boat going direct between Ireland and France and taking a day for each direction.

downcow

Quickpip wrote: »

downcow wrote: »

I think the referendum result in Northern Ireland is the best reflection of what the views of people up North are, rather than a radio phone in show.
That was 56% to remain and 44% to leave if memory serves me right.
It roughly broke down to the same old historical voting patterns(Normal people and headcases).

I can only guess you are suggesting the 44% are headcases. A bit extreme maybe

Hurrache

Somebody in the Ivory Coast is getting all panicky at the moment wondering what the hell is going on.
https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1090603439976050690

Varik

The direct sea route will take far longer.

Dublin to Zeebrugge is 11 hours, without travelling through the UK that's goes up to 40 hours. Antwerp & Rotterdam are worse. For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it. Even Calais isn't' that much closer than Zeebrugge.

The sea route is at best adding 20 hours to get to France.

otnomart

"The Commission has adopted plans to reroute Ireland’s freight to ports in Belgium and the Netherlands".
I remember reading the article when it was published, here is the link
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-french-ireland-ports-cut-out-of-eu-trade-route-after-brexit/

EdgeCase

Cork to Roscoff takes 14 hours using a conventional non-fast ferry, the Brittany Ferry's flagship MV Port Aven.

The Dublin to Antwerp / Rotterdam routes could be useful for non-time-sensitive freight that transits the UK at present, but you could also have extended ferries on South coast of Ireland to Brittany routes for food that's under time pressure for spoilage.

The Pont Aven is geared up for tourism, but there are ferries that could be put onto those routes quite easily that are more geared up towards truckers.

At present because of the land bridge, the development of Cork or Rosslare to France freight focused ferries hasn't been commercially viable and the focus has been on tourism, but the potential is there and the ability to move ferries to those routes is also there.

Macy0161

Varik wrote: »

The direct sea route will take far longer.

Compared to now. Compared to the cluster that will be the UK ports post No Deal?

Nody

Oh dear...

Theresa May has been warned the EU will settle for a no-deal Brexit rather than abandon the Irish backstop, as Brussels ramped up its refusal to reopen talks.

A senior MEP, serving on the European Parliament's Brexit Steering Group, said the prime minister’s plea to rip up the existing agreement would be rejected – because a no-deal outcome was “the lesser evil”.

“There will be a price to pay, but the calculus that is being made on this side of the Channel is that the cost of hurting the integrity of the single market will be significantly bigger,” said Philippe Lamberts.

But but but German car makers and EU backstabbing Ireland over the backstop and always roll over at the last minute...

I'd ask who'd blink first but to be fair we already know it will be the UK; the only question is what they will blink into and my belief as stated over a year ago still stands at "crash out brexit" by incompetence. A couple of months later (need to get things to settle in and be really bad) the new Tory leader will sign the WA deal with support from Labour and DUP gets thrown under the red bus.

Russman

eagle eye wrote: »

This whole idea that the EU should stay tough is like shooting yourself in the foot.
We, the people of the Republic of Ireland, are the innocent bystanders in all of this. The EU have a responsibility to protect us. We don't want higher taxes and we certainly don't want the troubles starting again.
You can drag Teresa May under the bus all you want and the Tories and Corbyn and they all deserve it but the EU have a responsibility to us. They are looking at the UK and deciding they are going to win the battle instead of considering all the members of the EU that reside on this island.

But to stray away from it is dangerously close to appeasement, no ? I accept there's a fine line between "cutting of your nose to spite your face" and being pragmatic about things.
If the EU cave on one issue, its only a matter of time before the next issue that upsets the ERG or DUP arises and another agreement reneged on IMO.

VinLieger

Nody wrote: »

A couple of months later (need to get things to settle in and be really bad) the new Tory leader will sign the WA deal with support from Labour and DUP gets thrown under the red bus.

Isn't it too late then? Once they are out they are out and the WA is defunct so they need to start on an FTA?

CelticRambler

Shelga wrote: »

How much of their fresh food does the UK import?

Fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy, eggs etc- surely they produce a hell of a lot of this stuff themselves, and their internal market would grow, if farmers can no longer export as easily?

One of downcow's Brexiteer chums (60-year old farmer, says "we've" lived through two world wars and the people were still smiling when they had no houses :rolleyes:) speaking on the Nolan show says there won't be any problem because the country (I presume he means NI?) produces plenty of potatoes and cabbage.

Meanwhile in the real world, the UK's internal market won't grow for the simple reason that it relies on imported unskilled EU labour to pick and pack any food that's grown in UK soil, and that supply has already been disrupted. Short of a massive switch to pick-your-own farming, there won't be anything to sell, at least at a price that the newly unemployed Airbus and Bombardier workers can afford.

Akrasia wrote: »

Will there be food rationing Before 29th of March in the UK if there isn't any deal agreed before then?

Basically, as it comes closer to brexit day, there will be panic buying. People who can afford it will stockpile up on food, like they're already stockpiling medicines and the shelves will start to become empty in the weeks before brexit day.

Whether or not there's officially sanctionned rationning, I can see that the shelves will start to empty anyway. If, by mid-March, the UK is still waiting for the EU to back down, continental hauliers almost certainly scale back their cross-channel deliveries. They won't want to be faced with dozens of their lorries stuck in Manston for an indefinite period of time.

This is when it'll get interesting: assuming a chaotic Brexit brings continental re-supply to a halt, supermarkets will draw on all those things that they've been stockpiling, so the cracks will be papered over for a few weeks and Brexiteers will gloat about Project Fear being a huge exaggeration. That'll put the brakes on any attempt to get a realistic new deal agreed. But within a few weeks, ordinary customers will find that some, then several, of their favourite product lines are no longer on the shelves. There'll come a day when a critical mass of irritation turns to mass panic, triggering a run on hundreds of other product lines - just as the unreplenished warehouse stocks are exhausted.

If there's no extension to Art.50, I reckon this'll happen around the end of April - about 10 days after Easter, when the 17.4m Leavers have pigged out their reserves as a way of sticking up two "Blitz Spirit" fingers at the EU. Pity the poor students doing their exams in May and June ...

Varik

EdgeCase wrote: »

Cork to Roscoff takes 14 hours using a conventional non-fast ferry, the Brittany Ferry's flagship MV Port Aven.

The Dublin to Antwerp / Rotterdam routes could be useful for non-time-sensitive freight that transits the UK at present, but you could also have extended ferries on South coast of Ireland to Brittany routes for food that's under time pressure for spoilage.

The Pont Aven is geared up for tourism, but there are ferries that could be put onto those routes quite easily that are more geared up towards truckers.

At present because of the land bridge, the development of Cork or Rosslare to France freight focused ferries hasn't been commercially viable and the focus has been on tourism, but the potential is there and the ability to move ferries to those routes is also there.

EU has excluded France from the redone North Sea-Mediterranean route

Nody

VinLieger wrote: »

Isn't it too late then? Once they are out they are out and the WA is defunct so they need to start on an FTA?

I'm sure EU will be willing to be flexible on that and fudge it simply because it removes the hard border requirements at the Irish/NI border (or as I saw someone call it the Schroedinger’s Irish Border due to the Brexiteers double think approach). Remember the WA was simply EU asking the other countries to let UK still use their FTAs basically (as UK had left EU by 30th March anyway); never something harder than that so asking a few months later should not cause major issues though I'm sure certain people (*cough*Trump*cough*) will refuse to do so.

FrancieBrady

Russman wrote: »

But to stray away from it is dangerously close to appeasement, no ? I accept there's a fine line between "cutting of your nose to spite your face" and being pragmatic about things.
If the EU cave on one issue, its only a matter of time before the next issue that upsets the ERG or DUP arises and another agreement reneged on IMO.

To coin an emerging EU catch phrase; 'No Deal Is Better Than Re-Opening Theresa's Deal'.

Seems to me anymore movement on this whole thing from an EU perspective is dead in the water.
Ball lobbed firmly back into the UK court.

Akrasia

Shelga wrote: »

How much of their fresh food does the UK import?

Fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy, eggs etc- surely they produce a hell of a lot of this stuff themselves, and their internal market would grow, if farmers can no longer export as easily?

Anyone have any statistics on this?

Again, I think Brexit is completely moronic, but talk of people dying in their thousands is surely exaggeration?

At the end of March, it's close to 100% of their fresh food. UK fresh produce is not ready to harvest until May. The months of April and May used to be called 'the hungry gap' because people were living off whatever was left stockpiled from the year before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungry_gap

CelticRambler

robinph wrote: »

There may be issues with products making their way across the UK to Ireland from France, but that will just mean an initial delay I'd expect. Then an exemption for lorries destined for Ireland will be created at Dover so that they can reduce the backlog and get in the stuff destined for the UK more quickly.

If the Switzerland-Germany or Switzerland-France borders are anything to go by, an exemption for transiting cargo won't make any difference, because that cargo can only be fast-tracked once it gets inside the port complex. Hard Brexit controls will create unmanageable congestion well outside the areas controlled by the port/customs authorities.

Varik wrote: »

For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it.

Because (amongst other reasons) the last 20 years have seen Calais develop as a free-movement port. There is only rudimentary infrastructure for non-EU (essentially non-UK) traffic. They have to build new facilities from the ground up - quite literally, starting last week (and that's only for the veterinary inspection of cattle and horses). Furthermore, as there's no land available in Dover or Folkestone, it's expected that the UK will have to build it's customs facilities on the French side of the Channel! Nothing says sovereignty like having to ask a foreign state to lend you a bit of land with road frontage! :rolleyes:

Hurrache

So Barnier and Junker saying as we expected at the EU Parliament debate today,
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1090634888099889153
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1090636448758484995