Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Try me. Please keep it really simple for this thick northerner. Simple bullet points would be best and no big words.
Really interesting- more rants at me but no answer yet to this question that you all know the answer to. Who will be first to educate me?

Are you purposely playing dumb, or just fishing for provacation?

You HAVE been answered.

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

A long rant blaming everyone but the UK themselves? Dear me.

May and her team negotiated that deal, got compromises and agreed it, then she welched on it last night...yet the EU is causing distrust and a disconnect with politics?

There is no saving some.

downcow

Hurrache wrote: »

So simple you had to ask.

You were answered a few times, one even had a great big diagram.

All it does is highlight you're wasting our time as it shows that everything you post is based on personal assumptions and little fact.

you say I’ve been answered several times. Just highlight a couple of them for me because I can’t find any of them. Yes an image has been posted but I genuinely don’t understand the logic of it and it is including stuff like ‘UK unwilling to make financial contribution’ which is clearly not true.
So the challenge is still out there. A few simple bullet points telling me what Mays red lines are?

Midlife

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

So what's a fair deal?

I've posted this here many times. I genuinly don't know what Britian want.

As i understand, May will not agree to remaining in the customs union and will not agree to a hard border.

So what is it then?

Hurrache

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.
.

Your rant is totally misjudged and misdirected. You've fallen into the trap of showing you don't understand how the EU works and negotiates with your blame of two specific individuals, and fail spectacularly to understand that it's all the UKs doing, there is no obligation to offer them any sort of good deal.

You then mention two other deals with non EU countries as an example that the EU can negotiate when it wants to, but guess who ruled out getting similar deals to those? Yip, the UK and their red lines again. There was even a handy chart a few posts back graphically illustrating this.

Irishmale0399

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What exactly would you like the EU to offer Britain today?

Why should the EU offer anything. The UK negotiated the WA....they already had their chance. Now its take it or leave it.


As for people thinking London is interested in the GF agreement....cop on. They are so self centered in this that it was never an issue for them. They dont care about Northern Ireland and if May didnt need the DUP she would have binned NI already. Like the UK has nothing to offer the EU, NI has nothing to offer the UK.

Midlife

downcow wrote: »

you say I’ve been answered several times. Just highlight a couple of them for me because I can’t find any of them. Yes an image has been posted but I genuinely don’t understand the logic of it and it is including stuff like ‘UK unwilling to make financial contribution’ which is clearly not true.
So the challenge is still out there. A few simple bullet points telling me what Mays red lines are?

1) Deliver a clear, smooth and orderly Brexit
2) Protecting the union between the United Kingdom's four parts: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
3) Giving Britain control of its borders, laws, and money
4) Allowing Britain to have an independent trade policy

The first is a joke at this stage.

So they want to preserve the UK, control the borders and don't want to be in the common european market.

What is the actual solution?

Seth Brundle

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think that is quite right.

Raab quit as Brexit sec because he felt he was being sidelined by Theresa May and Olly Robbins And was completely unhappy with the withdrawal agreement, no?

Rabb quit on Nov 15th one day after the draft WA which he oversaw as Brexit Secretary was announced.

Charles Babbage

Folkstonian wrote: »

May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK.

The UK is composed of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Saying that is should serve the people of GB (in reality, England) only is simply old fashioned colonialism. Sorry, this time the Croppies will not lie down.

seamus

Folkstonian wrote: »

Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.

The EU never ran active disinformation campaigns against itself.
The EU never blamed itself for the poor decisions of British parliaments.
The EU didn't decide to hold a referendum in the UK
The EU didn't vote for the UK to leave
The EU didn't decide what the UK's red lines would be
The EU have not even once said "Brexit means Brexit". The door has remained open the entire time.

What, exactly, does the EU have to take responsibility for?

eagle eye

Nody wrote:

1) 30th March UK crashes out 2) 1st April Ireland implements mobile controls on the major roads checking commercial vehicles causing a disruption to trade. 3) UK main ports get truck queues backed all the way to London with in a week as most of UK grinds to an halt for various reasons 4) UK runs back to EU to sign the WA agreement removing the need for the controls as NI remains in the CU until a suitable solution is found (along with rest of UK for an unspecified period which may be shorter than NI) removing the mobile checks

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

Nody wrote:

Now will the troubles return for that time duration? No; simply because it will not last long enough to build up the aggravation over it. However as this is speculation of the future it's not guaranteed to happen as planned or expected. Hence if you want a 100% iron clad guarantee of no troubles then the answer is no, there is none short of all of Ireland becoming a vassal of UK because even leaving the EU would not be enough. Do you think that's an acceptable solution to avoid the troubles? Disband the Irish state etc. and become an province of the UK state?

All this is based on the UK running cap in hand back to the EU. That's not going to happen imo. Just look at all the idiots over there in power or opposition.
Also while Twitter and Facebook will make you believe that the British people want back into Europe it's very different on the ground over there. I recently spent a couple of days in London and Birmingham. I spoke to close to 200 people about Brexit. I spoke to somewhere in the region of about 80 people about it in London and it was only about 60/40 in favour of another referendum. In Birmingham I was quite shocked when it became clear that something like 70% were in favour of Brexit. This was last week.
The Republicans will start as soon as there is a border. The DUP will be delighted with the border so you won't find Unionist paramilitaries doing anything until some important Unionist is gunned down, the it'll be on and there'll be no stopping it. It's a frightening thought and I think it'll quickly lead to an Irexit vote.
If we are threatening to leave then others will look at that and you'll have more countries wanting out. The whole thing could break up or it might mean that everybody comes to their senses and we get a deal that works for everybody.

Charles Babbage

eagle eye wrote: »

The Republicans will start as soon as there is a border. The DUP will be delighted with the border so you won't find Unionist paramilitaries doing anything until some important Unionist is gunned down, the it'll be on and there'll be no stopping it. It's a frightening thought and I think it'll quickly lead to an Irexit vote.

No, it won't. It will lead to NI leaving the UK. In fact, likely there won't be a UK.

Folkstonian

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A long rant blaming everyone but the UK themselves? Dear me.

May and her team negotiated that deal, got compromises and agreed it, then she welched on it last night...yet the EU is causing distrust and a disconnect with politics?

There is no saving some.

I literally called May an inept negotiator. In what world is that not blaming the UK side?

downcow

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

As other mentioned, you already were given a picture of the Barnier Slide:

Norway = Single Market, no Customs Union
Turkey = Customs Union, no Single Market
Switzerland = Bespoke bilateral midway between the above
Canada = Basic FTA.

Thank you. I appreciate this answer. And it highlights why I asked. Everyone told UK voters before the referendum that the would not be in the CU or SM. so why should people be calling these red lines. This is what was voted for.
How could she even contemplate compromising on these.

A genuine thank you for answering the question

Folkstonian

Hurrache wrote: »

Your rant is totally misjudged and misdirected. You've fallen into the trap of showing you don't understand how the EU works and negotiates with your blame of two specific individuals, and fail spectacularly to understand that it's all the UKs doing, there is no obligation to offer them any sort of good deal.

You then mention two other deals with non EU countries as an example that the EU can negotiate when it wants to, but guess who ruled out getting similar deals to those? Yip, the UK and their red lines again. There was even a handy chart a few posts back graphically illustrating this.

Sorry, you misunderstand. I don’t blame those two characters for the negotiations. I think they are awful and unbearable and are one of many reasons as to why leave won the referendum.

No obligation on the EU to offer Britain a good deal? Absolutely. But no reason to think that offering a selection of terrible deals will lead to anything but chaos and probably a no deal exit, either.

fly_agaric

eagle eye wrote: »

If we are threatening to leave then others will look at that and you'll have more countries wanting out. The whole thing could break up or it might mean that everybody comes to their senses and we get a deal that works for everybody.

No...the other countries would shake their heads in disbelief at the madness (is insanity contagious?) and get on with it. IMO we would be (in their eyes) the UK's little nodding dog full of post colonial angst trotting after them out of EU the same way we trotted in with them to join the EEC!

eagle eye

Charles Babbage wrote:

No, it won't. It will lead to NI leaving the UK. In fact, likely there won't be a UK.

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Everyone told UK voters before the referendum that the would not be in the CU or SM. so why should people be calling these red lines. This is what was voted for.
How could she even contemplate compromising on these.

Delusion upon delusion

Beechwoodspark

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.


All this is based on the UK running cap in hand back to the EU. That's not going to happen imo. Just look at all the idiots over there in power or opposition.
Also while Twitter and Facebook will make you believe that the British people want back into Europe it's very different on the ground over there. I recently spent a couple of days in London and Birmingham. I spoke to close to 200 people about Brexit. I spoke to somewhere in the region of about 80 people about it in London and it was only about 60/40 in favour of another referendum. In Birmingham I was quite shocked when it became clear that something like 70% were in favour of Brexit. This was last week.
The Republicans will start as soon as there is a border. The DUP will be delighted with the border so you won't find Unionist paramilitaries doing anything until some important Unionist is gunned down, the it'll be on and there'll be no stopping it. It's a frightening thought and I think it'll quickly lead to an Irexit vote.
If we are threatening to leave then others will look at that and you'll have more countries wanting out. The whole thing could break up or it might mean that everybody comes to their senses and we get a deal that works for everybody.

More likely that there’ll be a border poll and a United ireland. Many unionists will leave NI for good if that is the outcome.

Going by Scottish sentiment there Could well be Scottish ref and Scottish independence and then England and Wales reapply to join the EU.

downcow

Midlife wrote: »

1) Deliver a clear, smooth and orderly Brexit
2) Protecting the union between the United Kingdom's four parts: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
3) Giving Britain control of its borders, laws, and money
4) Allowing Britain to have an independent trade policy

The first is a joke at this stage.

So they want to preserve the UK, control the borders and don't want to be in the common european market.

What is the actual solution?

Thanks that’s really helpful.
All sound very reasonable to me. Certainly a lot more reasonable than a backstop

Hurrache

Folkstonian wrote: »

Sorry, you misunderstand. I don’t blame those two characters for the negotiations. I think they are awful and unbearable and are one of many reasons as to why leave won the referendum.

But re-read that. It makes no sense. The whole of the UK voted leave partly because of two individuals in the EU? If that's one of the reasons Leave won the UK has much much bigger problems than Brexit coming their way.

prawnsambo

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

It takes years to complete a trade deal. NAFTA took six. The best that the UK can hope for is a quick deal with Canada and that's estimated to take at least two. Meanwhile, UK agri-food industry dies on its feet as it loses its only export market and faces punitive tariffs everywhere under WTO rules. Most models have predicted it will be gone inside two years. With no subsidies to protect it.

eagle eye

fly_agaric wrote:

No...the other countries would shake their heads in disbelief at the madness and get on with it. IMO we would be (in their eyes) the UK's little nodding dog full of post colonial angst trotting after them them out of EU the same way we trotted in with them to join!

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

I literally called May an inept negotiator. In what world is that not blaming the UK side?

No other blame only May was a lousy negotiator? She had a team of them and almost 2 years and trumpeted the deal when she agreed it then got squashed by the DUP...no blame for them? :rolleyes:

Beechwoodspark

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

We have not been the UKs nodding dog for years. ROI is sovereign and full member state of the EU whereas the UK is leaving within a few weeks.

Midlife

downcow wrote: »

Thanks that’s really helpful.
All sound very reasonable to me. Certainly a lot more reasonable than a backstop

What sounds reasonable?

What is your alternative to a backstop or hard border?

What can the EU now give the UK in terms of the border that meets those red lines.

It's getting increasingly hilarious that no-one can answer this question.

Folkstonian

Hurrache wrote: »

But re-read that. It makes no sense. The whole of the UK voted leave partly because of two individuals in the EU? If that's one of the reasons Leave won the UK has much much bigger problems than Brexit coming their way.

Yes, I think so.
I think they are abrasive and hugely dislikesble (and disliked, in reality)
Leaving aside whether you think that’s right or not, do you disagree that dislike for the individuals at the top of the pyramid in Europe didn’t play any part in the outcome?

First Up

eagle eye wrote:

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly. They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

They are entirely welcome to do this and I think they need to get on with it. For starters they'll need deals to replace some of the 44% of exports they send to the EU and also replace the trade agreements that they enjoy as part of the EU but with 10% of the negotiating leverage.

I'd advise them against starting a trade war though but by all means talk tough if it makes you feel better.

Midlife

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

J Mysterio

Midlife wrote: »

My basic stance on Brexit is this:

It could have been done well, it might even have made economic sense long term. Noway, Switzerland etc all do fine.

However, the approach by the UK has been a disaster. You have four quarters who won't agree on the same thing so they can't tell anyone what they want.

At this stage, the EU is correct. They negotiated a deal with a UK team. That deal was rejected by the UK. What kind of clowning is that? What are they expected to do but negotiate with the negotiators?

Britian have ****ed this up massivly by not being United. Shame on their politicians. They will have literally killed British people through their ineptitude.


But the thing that makes me furious at the back of it all is the hipocrasy of the rationale by some for Brexit. The same Tories who shut down local businesses, closed local industries and broke up local communities with Tatchernomics and then brought speculators and property developers to buy up the centre of British towns and cities are now blaming Europe and foreigners for Britian not being the way it was and the squeezing of the middle class.

Meanwhile Rees Mogg and his ilk are transferring their assets abroad and shorting British companies. A significant ammount of money will be gained by some if Britian crashes out this year. But anyone below the poverty line is in big trouble.

World class scumbags.

Now you can debate different aspects of Brixit, of backstops and GFA and WA but what's above is all reality.

Britian is ****ed because their elected representatives let them down.

Great post!