Brexit Discussion Thread VI

prawnsambo

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

We have in our holes. Have you been asleep for decades? Our dependance on the UK as a trading partner has diminished gradually over the years. We export four times as much to the EU and import twice as much from the EU.

bob mcbob

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

Ok since we are in a neoCake world lets turn it round to you.

Teresa May's red lines are -
- no membership of customs union
- no membership of the single market
- no freedom of movement
- no jurisdiction of ECJ

The EU agreement is based on this.

So on the basis of the above red lines, what do you feel the EU should have offered her?

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yes, I think so.
I think they are abrasive and hugely dislikesble (and disliked, in reality)
Leaving aside whether you think that’s right or not, do you disagree that dislike for the individuals at the top of the pyramid in Europe didn’t play any part in the outcome?

It was faux dislike built on jingoistic headlines from the usual suspects.

Thargor

Oh my God:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1090527294039486464

ArthurDayne

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

My favourite bit about this post is that you point out that the EU made "huge compromises" in dealing with Switzerland / Norway, right after you also say that any offer of membership of the EEA would be "garbage".

Infini

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

And there's the other side called nationalist as well who are being dragged out of the EU against THEIR will. Lets also not forget the idiotic gobshíte's who thought it was a good idea to set off a car bomb in Derry the other week and act ridiculous. This come's down to one thing: British Incompetence. The key difference though is that the unionist side could find that a UI may end up being a benefit to them if the UK falls apart from such a self defeating excercise in stupidity. It might not win them all over but a few months/years of Brexit misery can certainly focus minds. The difference is NI will ultimately get to CHOOSE which option they prefer and the likelyhood of a UI is significatly possible in a Hard Brexit scenario because of it.

prawnsambo wrote: »

It takes years to complete a trade deal. NAFTA took six. The best that the UK can hope for is a quick deal with Canada and that's estimated to take at least two. Meanwhile, UK agri-food industry dies on its feet as it loses its only export market and faces punitive tariffs everywhere under WTO rules. Most models have predicted it will be gone inside two years. With no subsidies to protect it.

This is the simple truth and when it come's down to late March the UK will be forced to make the choice if they still wont accept the WA: Either they'll be forced to capitulate in the face of an economic collapse, a plunging pound, a flight on assets and cancel A50 and abandon Brexit. They'll have little other option at this point because if they willfully crash out it is literally a nightmare scenario for them for the next few years as trade deals CANNOT be done overnight they're long and exteremely slow to negotiate for a reason. The EU is likely to make some temporary exceptions but they'll be withdrawn at a moments notice at their discretion not the UK's. In this scenario they're well and truly screwed the country is likely to break apart over this.

micosoft

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

Beechwoodspark

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

It will happen whenever a border poll results in a United ireland. There won’t be civil war stop being a drama queen. However I predict that Many unionists will leave NI when it happens.

Frank Bullitt

micosoft wrote: »

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

This.

Only this morning myself and a colleague were discussing how these deals will play out. The UK think they are a big player when it comes to this...they are in for a real surprise.

prawnsambo

micosoft wrote: »

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

Yes, but they won't be offering them in a hurry. Far better to sit back and let all would-be protected industry and agriculture wither and die and then be faced with no protectionism to hold them back.

fly_agaric

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

I don't agree with that description of Ireland, doubt most people would.
We do look toward them (and possibly towards the US also) too much at times but not to extent of "nodding dogness" like putting our hand in the fire when they do it by leaving the EU.
As regards loss of lives, I really doubt it will come to that. If it does, responsibility for it lies ultimately with the UK government and its Brexit project.

(edit: re "loss of lives" was thinking of a more plausible scenario of future presence of Irish and/or UK customs at the border reinvigorating dissident republicans etc. + generating violence rather than civil war...)

First Up

Midlife wrote:

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

That point isn't lost on the IDA - or their competitors in the SDI.

lawred2

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

Your self loathing is your own. No need to include the rest of us

Water John

Vilification of individuals seems to be part of the UK arsenal used regularly. Used to be Barnier, now Juncker and Vorsdhadt.

Professor Moriarty

Folkstonian wrote: »

Sorry, you misunderstand. I don’t blame those two characters for the negotiations. I think they are awful and unbearable and are one of many reasons as to why leave won the referendum.

No obligation on the EU to offer Britain a good deal? Absolutely. But no reason to think that offering a selection of terrible deals will lead to anything but chaos and probably a no deal exit, either.

Yes, but what exactly would you like the EU to offer Britain today?

ARNOLD J RIMMER

If there is No agreement by the 29th March. On the 30th I’m curious what the UK looks like with the “ WTF just happened “ head on there shoulders

jochenstacker

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.


All this is based on the UK running cap in hand back to the EU. That's not going to happen imo.

No, what will happen is that the UK will go door to door, cap in hand, looking for trade deals anywhere they can find them.
After having proven themselves to be selfish, greedy, unreliable and untrustworthy. And now they're desperate on top of it.
And as everyone knows, international trade is a soft, cozy world that totally doesn't brutally exploit any and all weaknesses in their trade partners.
Oh yes, they will land themselves some absolutely cracking deals.
Just not cracking for them.
Only a completely deluded fool would argue otherwise.

Midlife

This is very telling from May yesterday

""Today we have the chance to show the European Union what it will take to get a deal through this House of Commons, what it will take to move beyond the confusion and division and uncertainty that now hangs over us," Mrs May told parliament.

"I also accept that this House does not want the deal I put before it, in the form that it currently exists. The vote was decisive and I listened. So the world knows what this House does not want. Today we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want."

British lawmakers will have the opportunity to vote on up to seven proposed changes to Mrs May's Brexit deal on Tuesday, the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow said."

She's basically said that now her deal is firmly rejected, the Uk needs to come together and decide what deal they want.

THEY DON'T KNOW YET!!!

With 60 days to go, they haven't actually figured it out between themselves.

So how can people possibly be complaining about the EU in negotiations.

Fann Linn

Thargor wrote: »

Oh my God:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1090527294039486464

The gift that just keeps giving.

BorneTobyWilde

A peoples vote if took again would be to Leave, I have no doubt. It's what the EU is hoping for, but it would be Leave. There is enough people who just don't care, and have nothing to lose, they will get their benefits regardless.
Remain would need to gain 2m votes, I dunno where they get them, maybe from those who turned 18 since 2016.

jochenstacker

Midlife wrote: »

This is very telling from May yesterday



She's basically said that now her deal is firmly rejected, the Uk needs to come together and decide what deal they want.

THEY DON'T KNOW YET!!!

With 60 days to go, they haven't actually figured it out between themselves.

So how can people possibly be complaining about the EU in negotiations.

Hard to say. Sub 50 IQ, drugs, brainwashing, severe mental illness, but most likely they know bloody well they're heading for disaster and they're steering that course deliberately and are hoping to profit from it, be it as disaster capitalist or being paid off by outside"interested parties".
So insanity or criminal intent.
I will call anyone a fool or a liar who says that there are other, legitimate reasons.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think that is quite right.

Raab quit as Brexit sec because he felt he was being sidelined by Theresa May and Olly Robbins And was completely unhappy with the withdrawal agreement, no?

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

Charles Babbage

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

DO you realise that one side up there call themselves nationalists?

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

No, that was much later. When he picked up the transport portfolio iirc.

tuxy

Yes about a week after he realised the Dover-Callis crossing was important to the UK economy and two weeks before the EU27 voted on Mays deal he quits because he is not happy with the deal he spent months working on.
If he was being sidelined why did it take him five months to realise it?

ARNOLD J RIMMER

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

I never figured out how the average joe in Ireland knew this and the Brexit Sec at the time didn’t.

Mr Raab told a technology conference on Wednesday: "We want a bespoke arrangement in goods which recognises the peculiar, frankly, geographic, economic entity that is the United Kingdom.

"We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.

tuxy

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, that was much later. When he picked up the transport portfolio iirc.

This was reported on the 8th of Novemever by many news outlets

Dominic Raab has come under fire for saying he "hadn't quite understood" how reliant UK trade in goods is on the Dover-Calais crossing.

He then resigned on the 15th November.

Irish Praetorian

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

A peoples vote if took again would be to Leave, I have no doubt. It's what the EU is hoping for, but it would be Leave. There is enough people who just don't care, and have nothing to lose, they will get their benefits regardless.
Remain would need to gain 2m votes, I dunno where they get them, maybe from those who turned 18 since 2016.

I'm sorry but what is this based on? I've been consuming the polling of the UK population post-referendum to try and track their attitudes on the issue and this seems to fly in the face of that data.

Broadly speaking, people seemed to be on-board with Brexit up until roughly the period between the invocation of Article 50 and the 2017 General Election. Since that point, polls showing a lead for Brexit being the 'Right' decision or polls showing a 'Leave' vote in a hypothetical second referendum, have been pretty rare. Moreover the nature of that polling is also changing, with a fairly close toss-up in previous months being replaced with stronger leads for 'Wrong' or 'Remain' in the past year or so.

I coudln't help but observe this during the recent 'Question Time' flare-up, when some controversy emerged over the raucous response Isabel Oakeshott received for delivering the usual 'leave means leave' schtick - it was loud, but if you actually look in the audience, maybe half (if generous) were cheering; I think the Leave crowd might be getting nosier, not more numerous.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

I understand your frustration and have some sympathy, but it is your government and politicians who have let you down.

micosoft

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes, but they won't be offering them in a hurry. Far better to sit back and let all would-be protected industry and agriculture wither and die and then be faced with no protectionism to hold them back.

Let's not forget that both China and India remember the last "trade deal" they were forced at gunpoint to sign by the British. They have long memories and they have already made it clear that they don't care for May's red lines - they want visa's and one sided market access (see the awful Swiss deal with China).

As for Trump. Lol. He needs a win. The greatest trade deal for America means crushing the UK. Chlorinated Chickens here we come.