Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We were talking about Ray Bassett earlier, so, of course, he'll be on Radio 4's Today programme tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/ray_basssett/status/1091039740760150017

It's funny how this strange man who espouses what is essentially a lunatic fringe view here and has essentially no public profile has no trouble getting serious exposure in the UK (because he tells them what they want to hear) but non-DUP voices in NI (the actual substantial majority) are completely absent.

I wonder why.

Water John

That Nick Timothy, formerly TM's key advisor would actually write that nonsense just shows how delusional they have become.

Seems the EU are worried of giving a 3 month extension, fearing the UK will then crash out.

eagle eye

Thargor wrote:

The Protestant majority you mention is down to 3%, at the next census it will likely become the Protestant minority, actually seeing as census data is from 2011 its probably more accurate to say Protestants are the minority right now, and a shrinking minority, versus a growing Catholic majority, its a perfectly foreseeable future, practically inevitable now. When it comes time to vote in a border poll theres no way ~50% of the Catholic population will sit on their hands whill ~100% of the Protestant vote casts a ballot (got a source for that 50% not interested in UI btw?).

I don't have a source but I'm quite sure that many people just want peace and that won't happen if there is an attempt to have a United Ireland.
The no border is the best solution with NI remaining in the UK.

RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

They dis themselves. Barely had the confidence to award themselves a talking shop. They are happy being an appendage of England.

I doubt you`ve ever heard of Owain Glyndwr,the last true Prince of Wales and the scourge of the English.He terrorised the English for years!-the Welsh are a very proud race-your dismissal of them does them a disservice imo.

briany

ste wrote: »

The only way I can see Britain cohesing is hard brexit & to let it begin to crumble. Of course EU/Ireland will take a lot of flak and we will suffer, but the Moggs/BoJo/ERG/etc/etc need to shown to be wholly wrong & that they betrayed the people.

The dishonesty of the Brexiteers is disgusting & they need to be swept away.

You may know a person who, if they trip over something, does not say, "Oh, clumsy me. I really should watch where I'm going." They say, "Who left that there?!"

If Brexit were a house fire that Nigel Farage started, he could tell concerned onlookers that the fire was a great boon to the occupants because it would dramatically reduce heating costs for the rest of their lives.

What I'm getting at, here, is we must not underestimate the capacity of the true believers to point fingers in the wrong direction and the capacity of bad men to deflect blame. We might think, based on history, that evil men usually end up being seen for what they are, but we live in a strange time where no-one has full control of the narrative, thanks in no small part to social media.

I have to think that if Farage, Mogg and Bojo are knowingly doing a bad thing, they have devised a strategy to ensure no serious consequences reach their door.

Akrasia

Yeah. Hoping that the harsh reality of a Brexit crash out will somehow bestow humility to these people is not the answer.

They will use every failure caused by their own actions as further evidence that they were right all along and that Brexit would have worked out great if only they had been in total control and weren't sabbotaged by 'remainers' or the EU

Irish Praetorian

Thargor wrote: »

The Protestant majority you mention is down to 3%, at the next census it will likely become the Protestant minority, actually seeing as census data is from 2011 its probably more accurate to say Protestants are the minority right now, and a shrinking minority, versus a growing Catholic majority, its a perfectly foreseeable future, practically inevitable now. When it comes time to vote in a border poll theres no way ~50% of the Catholic population will sit on their hands whill ~100% of the Protestant vote casts a ballot (got a source for that 50% not interested in UI btw?).

It is indeed likely that the decline in the percentage of the community identifying as Protestant will continue to decline, however there is another factor at play involving the growth of the 'no religion' and 'not stated' demographics, to which we have little indication of political affiliation. In either case, there is not much prospect for further expansion of the Catholic demographic, given the most recent age data suggests that the number of 'Catholic' children born was from 1996 to 2001 with 45.9%, whereas the figure for the most recent period 2007-2011 is just 44.3%. As the birth rates of the two communities converge, I think the prospect of 'outbreeding' the Unionist population becomes more and more remote.

But lets proceed to the question of how people would vote. Now my main source for this is a 2016 Ipsos Mori poll, taken shortly after the Brexit vote. The long and the short of it is whilst 88% of Protestants would vote outright to remain part of the Union, 37% of Catholics would also, as compared with 42% of Catholics who would vote for unification. If we break this down further in terms of age demographics, another peculiar pattern emerges; for the oldest age cohorts (which are most strongly Protestant) support for remaining in the UK is 77%. That figure declines in a linear fashion to the 35-44 year old demographic, of whom only 51% would vote to remain in the UK compared with 30% who would vote to join Ireland. But the decline does not continue after that, with support for remaining in the UK increasing to 63% in the 24-34 demographic and 67% in the 18-24 grouping.

The big TLDR here is, unless there are some fairly massive changes within the voting patterns of the Catholic or Nationalist community, a United Ireland is a far off prospect.

listermint wrote: »

What's with the religious aspect ?

Sure the majority have always only ever looked at their pockets up there. Say one thing do another. There's a hard minority with the viewpoints you are expressing. The rest are in the middle ground just wanting to get on with life and concerned about job and family.

I think that your stats opinion is way off the mark

I seem to have fallen into the habit of using Catholic and Protestant interchangeably with Nationalist and Unionist. To be fair its slightly complicated by the fact that the census records religious rather than political affiliations, but I don't believe its beyond use as a rough indicator of polling opinion. I do however think it's that same 'middle ground' attitude that could work in favour of a 'remain in the UK vote' - if you wish to address my statistical argument it is listed above.

jm08

sandbelter wrote: »

i have to say I agree, I'm constantly surprised by the large number of NI Catholic's that view themselves as British. As for the Unionist, they have always been very honest as to they are; They have never shown any interest in being Irish, they arrived British, lived British, died British.

That doesn't hold up in surveys. 4% of catholics view themselves as British in NI.

58.6% said they felt Irish
57.9% said they felt Northern Irish
56.7% said they felt European
46.7% for people who felt British.
29% of people from a Protestant background defined themselves as Irish
4% of people from a Catholic background who identified as British.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-half-of-people-in-northern-ireland-consider-themselves-british-survey-36991147.html

blanch152

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would depend on the deal on offer.

1. UK could continue subsidy.

2. NI should escape without the share of the huge UK National Debt

3. EU would likely chip a few bob of regional aid, and a few other funds.

4. Ireland could agree to some continuance of a NI assembly - at least for a transition - even a period of joint authority.

5. A transition for tax equalisation - with a NHS type continuance.

On balance, we voted 95% for the GFA, so I would expect it would carry hugely in Ireland. NI might be a bit more tricky - but the Unionists appear happy to accept a 52%/48% vote in some matters.

If the UK is basically neutral or even in favour of a UI, then that would help.

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'm talking about the establishment of an Irish Sea border after a chaotic Brexit, when NI has already begun to feel the effects of being at one with a post-Brexit UK.

If NI went straight from its current "Irish Sea lite" separation to "Irish Sea a-little-bit-less-lite" as part of the WA (i.e. the Dec 2017 proposal) then there'd be no reason to opt for re-unification as they'd be getting the best of all worlds.

But if the UK crashes out, a hard border is established, NI's economy goes through the floor with no help available in Westminster, then an Irish Sea border will go from being "tolerable" to "desireable". Not the best-of-all-worlds offer that's on the table now, but a keep-you-fed-and-alive agreement. Give it two years, with the RoI back on its feet and still no Brexit dividend in evidence for the UK, the pragmatic voters in NI will start asking "what's in it for us?" and seriously consider the advantages of Irish reunification. It'll probably be something completely unrelated, something that primarily affects the English (who will have again forgotten about NI) that tips the balance; something like the return of military service/conscription or the imposition of ID cards.

The conditions that would cause Northern Irish people to vote for a united Ireland (a disastorous no-deal Brexit that bankrupts the UK) are the opposite of tthe conditions needed for the South to vote for unity.

That is one of the biggest contradictions in the argument for unity.

Irish Praetorian

jm08 wrote: »

That doesn't hold up in surveys. 4% of catholics few themselves as British in NI.

58.6% said they felt Irish
57.9% said they felt Northern Irish
56.7% said they felt European
46.7% for people who felt British.
29% of people from a Protestant background defined themselves as Irish
4% of people from a Catholic background who identified as British.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-half-of-people-in-northern-ireland-consider-themselves-british-survey-36991147.html

Just to note while we have that poll linked, since it's quite recent, one page 44 one can observe that in the event of a border poll being called, about 21.1% of the entire NI population would vote for unification. Broken down, that includes 42.4% of Catholics and 3.6% of Protestants. Now of course, one could argue one campaigning starts those numbers might look stronger and more people might come to the table, fair enough. To address that I think we can use the comparison with the IndyRef in Scotland back in 2014, which saw polling for independence start out at 35% in favour and climaxed at 45% on the day. I really struggle to see a scenario where the numbers end up in favour of unification.

blanch152

Anthracite wrote: »

It's funny how this strange man who espouses what is essentially a lunatic fringe view here and has essentially no public profile has no trouble getting serious exposure in the UK (because he tells them what they want to hear) but non-DUP voices in NI (the actual substantial majority) are completely absent.

I wonder why.

Ray Bassett is a strange one.

Never made it to the top of the diplomatic service, despite a long career.

Beechwoodspark

blanch152 wrote: »

Ray Bassett is a strange one.

Never made it to the top of the diplomatic service, despite a long career.

See my post from around 8-20 am this morning

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The conditions that would cause Northern Irish people to vote for a united Ireland (a disastorous no-deal Brexit that bankrupts the UK) are the opposite of tthe conditions needed for the South to vote for unity.

That is one of the biggest contradictions in the argument for unity.

Seems the hardships/instability a hard border brings will change many people's minds. No requirement for bankruptcy.
Also the prospect of Scotland jumping ship is another route by which it may come.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

I doubt you`ve ever heard of Owain Glyndwr,the last true Prince of Wales and the scourge of the English.He terrorised the English for years!-the Welsh are a very proud race-your dismissal of them does them a disservice imo.

I have heard of him. And, as I said, I'm not dismissing them - they dismiss themselves as demonstrated by their contentment with their status as essentially an eccentric county of England. I don't understand it, for sure, but they are happy enough it seems.

Anyway, this is pretty off topic.

Zubeneschamali

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I really struggle to see a scenario where the numbers end up in favour of unification.

We are picturing the full fat Mad Max Brexit crashout, with lines for food, rationing of medicine, riots, police baton charges, troops on the streets of London, racist attacks on foreigners, immigrants and people with funny names, smuggling, black markets, lawlessness, criminal gangs, Scottish Independence, cats and dogs living together etc.

An Ciarraioch

Anthracite wrote: »

I have heard of him. And, as I said, I'm not dismissing them - they dismiss themselves as demonstrated by their contentment with their status as essentially an eccentric county of England. I don't understand it, for sure, but they are happy enough it seems.

Anyway, this is pretty off topic.

Pretty much the antithesis of Ireland - unconcerned about political autonomy, but concentrated their energies on the Welsh language.

joe40

I really don't see a united ireland unless there is a serious deterioration in the economic situation in the north.
Even nationalist who would consider themselves "Irish" still look at things like paying for doctor visits, school books, bins etc as something they would have difficulty with. Northern unionist always had a wee superiority complex towards the south, and also quite a lot of nationalists have one as well, maybe subconsciously.
That is just based an anecdotal evidence I don't have figures to back it up so may be well off the mark. It is just the sense I get at times.
The reality is the south is a much more progressive society attracting fdi in a way the north couldn't dream off. People have got very dependant on the block grant so until that dries up significantly there will be no movement.
Even with that the security issues with hardline loyalist paramilitaries would be extremely difficult for irish security forces.
In saying that I would love to see a UI, but it would need to be a planned process over a number of years.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seems the hardships/instability a hard border brings will change many people's minds. No requirement for bankruptcy.
Also the prospect of Scotland jumping ship is another route by which it may come.

The feverish speculation for a united Ireland reminds me most of raving Tory backbencher Brexiteers for its relationship to reality. If it happens the way they want, it is because people have lost their senses.

blanch152

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

See my post from around 8-20 am this morning

Just read it now.

You said more than I would but you have the right end of the stick.

funkey_monkey

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/sam-mcbride-dup-pushing-pm-to-exploit-logical-flaw-in-brussels-dublin-backstop-position-1-8791210/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Sam McBride in the newsletter about backstop:

The shambolic state of the British negotiation has to some extent obscured these problems for Ireland.

Dyr

blanch152 wrote: »

The feverish speculation for a united Ireland reminds me most of raving Tory backbencher Brexiteers for its relationship to reality. If it happens the way they want, it is because people have lost their senses.

Speaking of feverish speculation, were you not the lad who started a thread about the British being able to nix the GFA whenever they felt like it


Hows that theory working out?

Capt'n Midnight

joe40 wrote: »

I really don't see a united ireland unless there is a serious deterioration in the economic situation in the north.
Even nationalist who would consider themselves "Irish" still look at things like paying for doctor visits, school books, bins etc as something they would have difficulty with

HSE on the way up is meeting the NHS on the way down

Dental visits down 25% by fining people

The dentists' organisation says almost 430,000 penalty fines were issued last year - which they say is often "simply for ticking the wrong box on claim forms".

A man has claimed he pulled out one of his own teeth after waiting more than 18 months to find an NHS dentist.

Then there's the whole assessment process replacing DLA with PIP
Lots of people have lost benefits. And wages and dole down here are higher even when you factor in living costs.

WomanSkirtFan8

blanch152 wrote: »

Ray Bassett is a strange one.

Never made it to the top of the diplomatic service, despite a long career.

it also explains his absolute bitterness towards the EU but the less said about him the better I feel.:cool:

Water John

Isobel Oakeshott on SKY Press Preview with Sonia Sodha. God she is obnoxious, don't know how Sonia doesn't slap her across the kisser.
She's the UK version of Kelly Anne Conway.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The feverish speculation for a united Ireland reminds me most of raving Tory backbencher Brexiteers for its relationship to reality. If it happens the way they want, it is because people have lost their senses.

I think the UK going bankrupt was the most 'feverish' thing we have heard here to today.

A UI fixes many of the conundrums and pitfalls of Brexit. Given that no type of Brexit is going to please or advantage everyone.
And it may be the only choice we have to stop us getting dragged out of the EU.

joe40

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

I really don't see a united ireland unless there is a serious deterioration in the economic situation in the north.
Even nationalist who would consider themselves "Irish" still look at things like paying for doctor visits, school books, bins etc as something they would have difficulty with

HSE on the way up is meeting the NHS on the way down

Dental visits down 25% by fining people

The dentists' organisation says almost 430,000 penalty fines were issued last year - which they say is often "simply for ticking the wrong box on claim forms".

A man has claimed he pulled out one of his own teeth after waiting more than 18 months to find an NHS dentist.

Then there's the whole assessment process replacing DLA with PIP
Lots of people have lost benefits. And wages and dole down here are higher even when you factor in living costs.

I fully agree with all but I still think the perception (wrongly in my view) is that things are better in the north.

prawnsambo

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Just to note while we have that poll linked, since it's quite recent, one page 44 one can observe that in the event of a border poll being called, about 21.1% of the entire NI population would vote for unification. Broken down, that includes 42.4% of Catholics and 3.6% of Protestants. Now of course, one could argue one campaigning starts those numbers might look stronger and more people might come to the table, fair enough. To address that I think we can use the comparison with the IndyRef in Scotland back in 2014, which saw polling for independence start out at 35% in favour and climaxed at 45% on the day. I really struggle to see a scenario where the numbers end up in favour of unification.

I think you are mixing up two polls there. That table is from an earlier QUB poll and not the one that the article is about which was carried out by Lucid Talk. And the figures in the Lucid Talk are dramatically different from the QUB one.

trellheim

Isabelle Oakeshotte should not be platformed at all

Gina Miller taking people to school wonderfully on QT

Folkstonian

Can somebody explain the point of Richard Burgon being on Question Time?

I’ve no idea why he’s pushed into so many media appearances by Labour, he’s dreadful.

boggerman1

The Tory woman when asked for solutions to the British border in Ireland just waffled on and on.and once again the reaction in the audience shows the English are doubling down on we voted leave and to hell with the results