Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently there are going to be "blitz-like" tv ads in Britain in the new year preparing public for no deal including telling people not to book flights abroad from April 1st.

That means my brother is getting a new television.

He will literally put his foot through the current one when he sees that.

Christy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently there are going to be "blitz-like" tv ads in Britain in the new year preparing public for no deal including telling people not to book flights abroad from April 1st.

Link to that please or what is the source. That would insane if true.

First Up

I get the feeling that some people's (negative) vision of "the EU" is a big building in Brussels.

If they thought of it as cooperation between the people, governments and industries of 27 countries, they might be better able to understand what its about.

FreudianSlippers

First Up wrote: »

I get the feeling that some people's (negative) vision of "the EU" is a big building in Brussels.

If they thought of it as cooperation between the people, governments and industries of 27 countries, they might be better able to understand what its about.

Frankly, if they thought about it as the USA-lite (which it is in essence, with exception of federal taxation and military issues) they'd probably achieve the same goal.

EdgeCase

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Apparently there are going to be "blitz-like" tv ads in Britain in the new year preparing public for no deal including telling people not to book flights abroad from April 1st.

Well, if you want to completely collapse your own air transport and tourism businesses that is certainly one way of going about it in an efficient and effective manner.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Or they believed what their institutions and senior politicians told them, ie that the NHS would be better funded, that decline in the deprived parts of the UK was down to free movement of people and that our laws were being made in Brussels.

You're on a Political forum which is tightly moderated. This isn't a way most people choose to spend their time so it can be fairly argued that you are politically engaged to a degree beyond the average voter. I see where you're coming from but attempts to "otherise" the 17.4 million Leave voters of all stripes aren't going to do any good in the long run.

I'm only criticising them in the sense that they claim to be 'bored with Brexit'. They created the current crisis with their vote at the ballot box and having been duly warned this could set off a major crisis and instability. This is not some unfortunate situation that has befallen them and over which they had no control (in which case they could be afforded a lot of sympathy). They initiated it but are also refusing to take ownership of the debacle.

Jim2007

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that if borders in ireland upset nationalists and threaten the peace, then borders in the Irish Sea upset unionists and equally threaten the peace.

And we need a solution that actually works, that is the primary objective here. And in that respect it is far easier to put a couple of warships into Belfast Lough than to police the NI border. The is why it is the favoured option for the EU side including the EU parliament.

J Mysterio

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyone who got BBCNI should remember the morning news pretty much every day starting with "A man has been injured in a paramilitary-style attack in..." unless there had been a bombing in the last few days.

It was UTV if I recall that had the murder news every day!

foxyladyxx

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/dec/18/brexit-latest-theresa-may-cabinet-no-deal-planning-tory-pro-europeans-more-likely-to-abandon-may-in-confidence-vote-than-brexiters-claims-rees-mogg-politics-live?page=with:block-5c18ff66e4b09fd3d62b33a3#block-5c18ff66e4b09fd3d62b33a3

Army on standby .. for what exactly?

If Brexit REALLY means they have to engage troops - wouldn't it be better if they paid real wages to the unemployed and gave them the task of sorting out the government's mess?

downcow

Jim2007 wrote: »

And we need a solution that actually works, that is the primary objective here. And in that respect it is far easier to put a couple of warships into Belfast Lough than to police the NI border. The is why it is the favoured option for the EU side including the EU parliament.

I have got away behind on posts but anyway this one confuses me. I don’t think there’ll be any issue in Belfast lough. If republicans get pissed off they will be attacking northern targets from south and if loyalists get pissed off they will be attacking southern targets from north. So there is only one border would be affected by conflict. Personally I don’t think there will be any conflict worth mentioning no matter who gets pissed off the world has moved on and we can see up north the dissidents can’t scratch themselves but the authorities know given the level of technology. Forget the gfa/peace argument it’s a none starter. The ira were extremely sophisticated and decades of experience and they were defeated. There is no way a few republicans or loyalists are any significant threat.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I have got away behind on posts but anyway this one confuses me. I don’t think there’ll be any issue in Belfast lough. If republicans get pissed off they will be attacking northern targets from south and if loyalists get pissed off they will be attacking southern targets from north. So there is only one border would be affected by conflict. Personally I don’t think there will be any conflict worth mentioning no matter who gets pissed off the world has moved on and we can see up north the dissidents can’t scratch themselves but the authorities know given the level of technology. Forget the gfa/peace argument it’s a none starter. The ira were extremely sophisticated and decades of experience and they were defeated. There is no way a few republicans or loyalists are any significant threat.

what do you mean?

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone who got BBCNI should remember the morning news pretty much every day starting with "A man has been injured in a paramilitary-style attack in..." unless there had been a bombing in the last few days.

And RTE news used to list the world headlines before starting the reports with "but first, today in Northern Ireland ... "

Anyone remember the Newsflashes asking for keyholders in certain areas ?


The men of violence haven't gone away.

There hasn't been a bomb alert in over a week
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46508052

There hasn't been a been a murder in nearly two week.
BTW That PSNI Landrover in the picture is still carrying one ton of armour plating.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46508052

In the last month the Dissident Republicans and UDA have been active
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46247606
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46362679


Just in case anyone still doesn't get it
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46235640

On the border beat in in County Armagh - policing is not like anywhere else in the UK.

When I accompanied Sgt Sam Hoey on a drive around his area - we were in a convoy of four armoured cars.
...
"The reason why we can't cross the border is because we're carrying firearms," Sgt Hoey tells me.
...
He is employing 102 extra officers between now and the end of this financial year, which is close to the date when the UK is leaving the EU.

EdgeCase

Well many of the problems they will have aren't going to be able to be solved by the army unless they're planning to just invade Europe and sieze other people's drugs and food.

At this stage, nothing would surprise me.

All of the problems they face are due to entirely disruption of their own logistics systems

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well many of the problems they will have aren't going to be able to be solved by the army unless they're planning to just invade Europe and sieze other people's drugs and food.

At this stage, nothing would surprise me.

No Deal may have major implications for security along the border and in NI.

EdgeCase

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No Deal may have major implications for security along the border and in NI.

Undoubtedly, but is sending the British army back into Northern Ireland to secure the border really a viable option?! It didn't ever work well in the 20th century. I don't really see how it will work in the 21st.

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

Undoubtedly, but is sending the British army back into Northern Ireland to secure the border really a viable option?! It didn't ever work well in the 20th century. I don't really see how it will work in the 21st.

The alternative, if the situation were to revert to pre GFA levels, might be civil war.

Hurrache

foxyladyxx wrote: »

Army on standby .. for what exactly?

Well somebody needs to stock and clean all those fridges they've bought.

catrionanic

downcow wrote: »

I have got away behind on posts but anyway this one confuses me. I don’t think there’ll be any issue in Belfast lough. If republicans get pissed off they will be attacking northern targets from south and if loyalists get pissed off they will be attacking southern targets from north. So there is only one border would be affected by conflict. Personally I don’t think there will be any conflict worth mentioning no matter who gets pissed off the world has moved on and we can see up north the dissidents can’t scratch themselves but the authorities know given the level of technology. Forget the gfa/peace argument it’s a none starter. The ira were extremely sophisticated and decades of experience and they were defeated. There is no way a few republicans or loyalists are any significant threat.

What? I am from Belfast and couldn't disagree more. The threat is very real indeed.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

Undoubtedly, but is sending the British army back into Northern Ireland to secure the border really a viable option?! It didn't ever work well in the 20th century. I don't really see how it will work in the 21st.

No. The current British Army numbers 77,000.

In the past 27,000 couldn't stop 40% of the vehicle fuel being laundered or smuggled. It would leave just 50,000 for GB and the rest of the world, if you include rotation and training and holidays .

And the UK Govt has already ruled out more CCTV cameras.

downcow

catrionanic wrote: »

What? I am from Belfast and couldn't disagree more. The threat is very real indeed.

So what are you saying? Which side should we wind up? Where should the passports be checked? Irish Sea or Irish border? Or could the English Channel be a more sensitive place to do it? Don’t expect anyone to suggest Channel as that might upset a few old cork republicans 😀

downcow

Guys can I reassure you the NI troubles are over. End off. No threat to south and no threat to NI. There is no stomache for it and those that are interested are being tracked in such a way that they can’t move. When was the last troubles killing (I know there is some drugs stuff. Indeed the most recent up here was exported from your little fued in Dublin). Maybe a decade ago

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

So what are you saying? Which side should we wind up? Where should the passports be checked? Irish Sea or Irish border? Or could the English Channel be a more sensitive place to do it? Don’t expect anyone to suggest Channel as that might upset a few old cork republicans ��

Surely you have the answers, as you have been putting down the EU proposals.

What is yours, or indeed the UK governments, proposals to solve this problem?

The EU have put forward a way in which no border needs to exist, but of course that requires NI to stay aligned. Of course the easiest solution is for the UK to stay aligned but that is not what the UK want so the EU have tried to find an alternative.

This backstop alternative appears to be a non runner in the UK. So, its a border then unless they can find an alternative.

Apparently, technology is the answer. It doesn't exist and nobody has actually been tasked with creating it but it will definitely solve the problem, probably, in time.

Just over 100 days and still nothing from the people who created the problem of how they intend to resolve it.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

Guys can I reassure you the NI troubles are over. End off. No threat to south and no threat to NI. There is no stomache for it and those that are interested are being tracked in such a way that they can’t move. When was the last troubles killing (I know there is some drugs stuff. Indeed the most recent up here was exported from your little fued in Dublin). Maybe a decade ago

But even if you believe that, (I honestly can't think that you do and that you would be prepared to risk your life on it) it still does nothing to resolve the underlying problem of the border.

How can the UK be out of the EU, the regulations, the rules eetc and yet still think that it can continue to have an open border?

What can it possibly offer any other country in terms of Trade agreements when that country already can gain unrestricted access to the UK market?

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

So what are you saying? Which side should we wind up? Where should the passports be checked? Irish Sea or Irish border? Or could the English Channel be a more sensitive place to do it? Don’t expect anyone to suggest Channel as that might upset a few old cork republicans ��

You don't need passports to cross the Irish Sea, unless you use Ryanair, but that's Ryanair.

For every one else, Drivers licence or similar + boarding card is fine.

Everyone gets ID checked in Dublin Airport arrivals regardless.
And when you get on the ferries.

So in practice no major changes to what's happening already.


BTW up to 60% of goods consignments moving from the UK to Northern Ireland, and vice versa, go through Dublin.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Forget the gfa/peace argument it’s a none starter. The ira were extremely sophisticated and decades of experience and they were defeated. There is no way a few republicans or loyalists are any significant threat.

Yeah ... you might want to revise you history of The Troubles. The IRA were never "defeated". Sinn Féin negotiated on their behalf with the British (and Irish) government to move their fight into the political arena rather than the (para)military theatre. Things were going quite well, including an IRA ceasefire when the negotiations hit a wall. The Tory Party found itself somewhat dependent on the DUP for support in Westminster. Every other party to the negotiations (Irish Govt, the US, the EU observers, and Sinn Féin/IRA) told the Tory-DUP alliance that they were being thick eejits and should continue continue with the negotiations according to the already agreed terms. (Does any of this sound familiar?) They refused, and the IRA decided to remind them of what not having a ceasefire looked like:



The 1996 Docklands bombing quickly brought the Tories to their senses, talks resumed and the GFA was born, without the DUP's support. At no point in the process was the IRA defeated, and in case you missed it, their Chief of Staff ran as a Presidential candidate in Ireland a few years back, and subsequently had dinner with the Queen in Buckingham Palace at her invitation.

That kind of peaceful co-existence of two previously sworn enemies is one of the many benefits of EU membership; unfortunately, the devil's alliance of the Tories and the DUP has come back to haunt Britain once again.

PS - you may recall that the previous occasion on which the Tories and the DUP got into bed together was to introduce something called the Poll Tax. That worked out splendidly, didn't it?

CelticRambler

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Frankly, if they thought about it as the USA-lite (which it is in essence, with exception of federal taxation and military issues) they'd probably achieve the same goal.

The UK is far more "USA-lite" than the EU - a collection of states that are supposedly United, but have almost nothing in common with each other (neither culture nor socio-political ambitions) apart from language, currency and head of state. The US doesn't even have mutual recognition of professional qualifications! :rolleyes:

cml387

downcow wrote: »

Guys can I reassure you the NI troubles are over. End off. No threat to south and no threat to NI. There is no stomache for it and those that are interested are being tracked in such a way that they can’t move. When was the last troubles killing (I know there is some drugs stuff. Indeed the most recent up here was exported from your little fued in Dublin). Maybe a decade ago

I wish I could have your faith in that.

(Also, please don't fall into the trap of responding to the more incendiary remarks from some posters, most of us don't hanker for a united ireland under other than democratic means).

Although there has been peace since 1997, it's fragile, and the old hatreds linger not too far under the surface.

I again emphasise the point that what we had before 2016, while not perfect, was at least keeping the lid on things. It's the UK decision to leave that puts all this talk of borders and guns back on the agenda.

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

Guys can I reassure you the NI troubles are over. End off. No threat to south and no threat to NI. There is no stomache for it and those that are interested are being tracked in such a way that they can’t move. When was the last troubles killing (I know there is some drugs stuff. Indeed the most recent up here was exported from your little fued in Dublin). Maybe a decade ago

TBH there was always a drugs/smuggling/bank raids component to the paramilitaries or their co travellers.

Today, 16:45

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In the last month the Dissident Republicans and UDA have been active
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46247606
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46362679[/url

Unless you live in the North East you'd be aware of the economics of cross border shopping. And if the economy isn't growing people may vote with their pockets.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Or could the English Channel be a more sensitive place to do it? Don’t expect anyone to suggest Channel as that might upset a few old cork republicans ��

Passports (and visas) will be checked at the English Channel. It's not a suggestion any more - it's reality: Kent County Council is spending much of the NHS's £350m/wk converting parts of the M20 and M25 into holding zones.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yeah ... you might want to revise you history of The Troubles. The IRA were never "defeated". Sinn Féin negotiated on their behalf with the British (and Irish) government to move their fight into the political arena rather than the (para)military theatre. Things were going quite well, including an IRA ceasefire when the negotiations hit a wall. The Tory Party found itself somewhat dependent on the DUP for support in Westminster. Every other party to the negotiations (Irish Govt, the US, the EU observers, and Sinn Féin/IRA) told the Tory-DUP alliance that they were being thick eejits and should continue continue with the negotiations according to the already agreed terms. (Does any of this sound familiar?) They refused, and the IRA decided to remind them of what not having a ceasefire looked like:



The Docklands bombing quickly brought the Tories to their senses, talks resumed and the GFA was born. At no point in the process was the IRA defeated, and in case you missed it, their Chief of Staff ran as a Presidential candidate in Ireland a few years back, and subsequently had dinner with the Queen in Buckingham Palace at her invitation.

That kind of peaceful co-existence of two previously sworn enemies is one of the many benefits of EU membership; unfortunately, the devil's alliance of the Tories and the DUP has come back to haunt Britain once again.

PS - you may recall that the previous occasion on which the Tories and the DUP got into bed together was to introduce something called the Poll Tax. That worked out splendidly, didn't it?

I guess you don’t really believe that. The troubles ended because the ira were so incredibly infiltrated. Stakeknife, Maginnis (your presidential candidate), etc, etc. They were defeated and the the loyalists turned up the volume with their disgraceful sectarian campaign which more than matched the ira sectarian campaign. Support in both communities deminished. I won’t happen again. Not possible.