Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Hurrache

Interest take on what the British government are at
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1079159383123247106?s=19

mickoneill31

Leroy42 wrote: »

Have they discussed this with the EU I wonder?

Doesn't read like it, but I would assume that they are aware that it not simply up to them.

Doubtful. Corbyn was saying earlier on this month that he'd delay Brexit to renegotiate the deal. That's another unicorn.
He seems to be saying and doing the minimum so when it goes tits up he can say "well they didn't do my plan which would have avoided this"

road_high

Latest headlines I’m reading is that they may now extend the leave date...! Will they ever actually leave?

ancapailldorcha

Liam Fox has come out and said that Brexit has only a 50% chance of happening if May's deal is rejected. From the BBC:

Senior Brexiteer minister Liam Fox says there is a 50-50 chance the UK will not leave the EU on 29 March if MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal next month.

The international trade secretary told the Sunday Times it would only be "100% certain" if MPs back the deal.

He said if the deal is rejected, that "would shatter the bond of trust between the electorate and Parliament".

MPs are due to vote on the withdrawal agreement in January, with the UK scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March.

The agreement negotiated by Mrs May with the EU - which sets the terms of the UK's exit and a declaration on future relations - will only come into force with a majority backing in Parliament.

The Commons vote was due to be held on 11 December but the PM postponed it once it became clear it would be defeated by a large margin.

I don't know what he expects to happen. Everyone hates the deal. The Christmas break won't change that. The hardcore Brexiteers have already shown their disdain for the people of this country and there's no reason to believe that this has changed.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Liam Fox has come out and said that Brexit has only a 50% chance of happening if May's deal is rejected. From the BBC:



I don't know what he expects to happen. Everyone hates the deal. The Christmas break won't change that. The hardcore Brexiteers have already shown their disdain for the people of this country and there's no reason to believe that this has changed.

I take it Fox is trying to say to fellow Brexiteers that if they do not take the WA on offer, there is a high chance Brexit will be cancelled, either by HOC or by a second referendum, and any other option, like a threat of a crash out could get the whole Brexit mess canned.

He is also concerned that a GE could result in Corbyn getting into No 10.

joseywhales

They will never leave, its all just an excercise in bloodletting, if noone actually wants to leave including most of parlament, they will contrive any possible way not to leave including a deal where they don't really leave, their collective subconscious won't allow it.

If they had a referendum where they asked if all of parlaiment should commit suicide it would pass and probably be better for the country and finally satisfy the electorate.

road_high

joseywhales wrote: »

They will never leave, its all just an excercise in bloodletting, if noone actually wants to leave including most of parlament, they will contrive any possible way not to leave including a deal where they don't really leave, their collective subconscious won't allow it.

If they had a referendum where they asked if all of parlaiment should commit suicide it would pass and probably be better for the country and finally satisfy the electorate.

You’d think after over two years to plan for leaving that they’d have ample time- if the will was there. They’re still stuck at “wanting to leave” but keep all the benefits and suffer no pain or inconvenience. Neither tally with “leave means leave”!

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I take it Fox is trying to say to fellow Brexiteers that if they do not take the WA on offer, there is a high chance Brexit will be cancelled, either by HOC or by a second referendum, and any other option, like a threat of a crash out could get the whole Brexit mess canned.

He is also concerned that a GE could result in Corbyn getting into No 10.

Labour would know that as well. I can't see May winning over anywhere near enough Labour MP's to make up for the shortfall from her own party.

J Mysterio

Jean-Claude Juncker has called on the United Kingdom to “get your act together” over Brexit, branding some Britons “entirely unreasonable” for expecting Brussels to put forward a solution.

The European Commission president also rejected claims of a plot to keep the UK in the EU “by all possible means” and revealed he fears the majority of MPs “deeply distrust” both the EU and Theresa May.

Mr Juncker’s comments to German newspaper Welt am Sonntag were published as British cabinet Brexiteer Liam Fox said the chances of Britain leaving the European Union will be little more than “50-50” if UK prime minister Theresa May’s deal is rejected by Parliament.

Irish Times

judeboy101

They are a malignant tumour in the EU as it is. Better to excise it while we can.

Christy42

Hilariously if they decode to stay they will claim the EU bullied them into it.

RobMc59

Christy42 wrote: »

Hilariously if they decode to stay they will claim the EU bullied them into it.

All the EU has done is present the cold hard facts which is the only way to deal with the hardline brexiteers and will also make the "lets get on with it" brigade wake up and smell the coffee.

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can the deadline date be delayed?

Yes but it requires all 27 to agree to it and it would want to be something major like a second referendum or a general election. It won't be extended to allow further arseing about.

Also it would require an act of parliament because if you recall they set the leave date in law.

judeboy101

Christy42 wrote: »

Hilariously if they decode to stay they will claim the EU bullied them into it.

They decided to stay in 1975 and the anti european factions have become more toxic and belligerent. They need to leave and make a decision to join, they have only been given choices to stay/ leave since 1973.

Seth Brundle

J Mysterio wrote: »

Jean-Claude Juncker has called on the United Kingdom to “get your act together” over Brexit, branding some Britons “entirely unreasonable” for expecting Brussels to put forward a solution.

The European Commission president also rejected claims of a plot to keep the UK in the EU “by all possible means” and revealed he fears the majority of MPs “deeply distrust” both the EU and Theresa May.

Mr Juncker’s comments to German newspaper Welt am Sonntag were published as British cabinet Brexiteer Liam Fox said the chances of Britain leaving the European Union will be little more than “50-50” if UK prime minister Theresa May’s deal is rejected by Parliament.

Irish Times

This BBC article focuses on the 50:50 part and only mentions Juncker's comment towards the end...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46713498

Infini

road_high wrote: »

Latest headlines I’m reading is that they may now extend the leave date...! Will they ever actually leave?

There truthfully is no extention without a 2nd referendum or A50 cancellation. The EU will not agree otherwise. They'll want a decision on this and if A50 is cancelled then that will be the end of it as in no Brexit for them as if they try cancelling in bad faith it could backfire on the UK.

Nody

Infini wrote: »

There truthfully is no extention without a 2nd referendum or A50 cancellation. The EU will not agree otherwise. They'll want a decision on this and if A50 is cancelled then that will be the end of it as in no Brexit for them as if they try cancelling in bad faith it could backfire on the UK.

I was only pondering what a GE would really do from an EU perspective. Basically for EU there are three options really from a GE.

1) Tories remain in power - Noting changed compared to today
2) Labour gains enough to get in power - They stated they want to renegotiate the deal which will not happen
3) No party gets enough vote and haggling ensues

In none of those three scenarios is there a significant step change forward compared to the current status as far as EU is concerned. Hence I'd agree referendum would be about the only reason to extend excluding wanting to buy more times for Brexit crash out on the EU side (i.e. give Ireland, Belgium etc. another 6 to 12 months to get more infrastructure in place).

judeboy101

Nody wrote: »

I was only pondering what a GE would really do from an EU perspective. Basically for EU there are three options really from a GE.

1) Tories remain in power - Noting changed compared to today
2) Labour gains enough to get in power - They stated they want to renegotiate the deal which will not happen
3) No party gets enough vote and haggling ensues

In none of those three scenarios is there a significant step change forward compared to the current status as far as EU is concerned. Hence I'd agree referendum would be about the only reason to extend excluding wanting to buy more times for Brexit crash out on the EU side (i.e. give Ireland, Belgium etc. another 6 to 12 months to get more infrastructure in place).

A referendum just just engrain the animosity towards europe for generations come among leavers. Even the most optimistic projections are a 60/40 remain and that is just plants the seed for future article 50's.

RobMc59

Nody wrote: »

I was only pondering what a GE would really do from an EU perspective. Basically for EU there are three options really from a GE.

1) Tories remain in power - Noting changed compared to today
2) Labour gains enough to get in power - They stated they want to renegotiate the deal which will not happen
3) No party gets enough vote and haggling ensues

In none of those three scenarios is there a significant step change forward compared to the current status as far as EU is concerned. Hence I'd agree referendum would be about the only reason to extend excluding wanting to buy more times for Brexit crash out on the EU side (i.e. give Ireland, Belgium etc. another 6 to 12 months to get more infrastructure in place).

I believe if Labour won a GE the EU would negotiate with them as they would want something completely different to the TM deal-which might suit the EU more than the deal on the table.

Evd-Burner

RobMc59 wrote: »

I believe if Labour won a GE the EU would negotiate with them as they would want something completely different to the TM deal-which might suit the EU more than the deal on the table.

This has already been ruled out multiple times by the EU. There would not be enough time and the only way that article 50 would be postponed is if the UK were to call for a second referendum.

At this stage though I don't think it's a good idea for a second referendum as if remain wins it will cause major issues down the line for the UK and the UK will likely cause further problems within the EU. I think it's best if they leave and after the realisation of knowing what it's like to be in the world as it is today on your own that they then learn from their mistakes and rejoin with a better mindset. Unfortunately though to do that it will cause the UK a lot of short to medium term harm.

kunst nugget

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Unfortunately though to do that it will cause the UK a lot of short to medium term harm.

And us too. People seem to be making comments about this as if we are somehow immune to the fallout from a hard Brexit. It will be an awful kick to the balls of our economy and I can't really see a way that we won't enter a recession if it happens. And the worst part is that we had no hand in being sabotaged in this way.

RobMc59

kunst nugget wrote: »

And us too. People seem to be making comments about this as if we are somehow immune to the fallout from a hard Brexit. It will be an awful kick to the balls of our economy and I can't really see a way that we won't enter a recession if it happens. And the worst part is that we had no hand in being sabotaged in this way.

The latest garbage from the tories is embarrassing-even for the british public-Britain to have military bases around the world and a low tax economy like Singapore-ordinary British people aren't interested in stuff like that-so who are they trying to appeal to?

Water John

The EU have not ruled out a different, soft Brexit as in staying in CJU and SM. What they have ruled out is opening the present negotiations again. What is on the table is as far as UK can push. A softer option will always be considered.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

The EU have not ruled out a different, soft Brexit as in staying in CJU and SM. What they have ruled out is opening the present negotiations again. What is on the table is as far as UK can push. A softer option will always be considered.

That is quite correct.

Having said that, the Brexiteers would be totally opposed to it (and it would immediately raise the question as to why the UK was leaving at all).

judeboy101

Current migrant attempts to cross the channel aren't helping things.

Water John

Feck the Brexiteers. None of them was saying this, even Farage during the Ref.
They applied extreme Brexit in hindsight.

CelticRambler

kunst nugget wrote: »

And us too. People seem to be making comments about this as if we are somehow immune to the fallout from a hard Brexit.

It'll be a lesson for Ireland too - that we should have been making better use of our access to the rest of the EU and not putting so many of our eggs in the British basket. Ireland has also been somewhat short-sighted over the last few decades, depending too much on the English-speaking market - including the US - to the detriment of others. Only now those others speak English as well as we do, and have the advantage of being fluent in two or three additional languages too.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Current migrant attempts to cross the channel aren't helping things.

They're not EU migrants, though, are they? Nothing to do with us, mate!

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

A referendum just just engrain the animosity towards europe for generations come among leavers. Even the most optimistic projections are a 60/40 remain and that is just plants the seed for future article 50's.

Not really. Demographics point to young people being predominately pro EU.

murphaph

CelticRambler wrote: »

It'll be a lesson for Ireland too - that we should have been making better use of our access to the rest of the EU and not putting so many of our eggs in the British basket. Ireland has also been somewhat short-sighted over the last few decades, depending too much on the English-speaking market - including the US - to the detriment of others. Only now those others speak English as well as we do, and have the advantage of being fluent in two or three additional languages too.


They're not EU migrants, though, are they? Nothing to do with us, mate!

In fairness to the businesses and state agencies involved, the figures clearly show we have become even less reliant on the UK market than before the referendum. It's down to under 10% of our exports which is really quite a remarkable achievement. More can and is being done right now though. Brexit may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ireland medium term.

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

In fairness to the businesses and state agencies involved, the figures clearly show we have become even less reliant on the UK market than before the referendum. It's down to under 10% of our exports which is really quite a remarkable achievement. More can and is being done right now though. Brexit may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ireland medium term.

If Brexit turns out to be a damp squib in this iteration, that is no Brexit or some sort of BRINO, then it may well turn out to be good for Ireland. Irish business and government has had to have a look at things and this will be helpful for any turbulance in the future. In addition, the all Ireland nature of the economy has been identified and this may lead to more rapid economic integration without immediate pressure for full political integration.

In particular, if Brexit is kicked down the road further, which is not unlikely, we should continue ensuring that it cannot do excessive harm if or when it did come.