Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Folkstonian

dresden8 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/486911/Migrants-travelling-to-UK-across-the-Channel-in-makeshift-boats-and-dinghys

No mention of Iranians here.

Your article is from July 2014

dresden8

Folkstonian wrote: »

Your article is from July 2014

Indeed. It is. Lolz.

It appears that Iranians with means are transitting through Belgrade and on into the rest of Europe.

Still, Mossadegh and all that. Still the WASPs fault after all.

Folkstonian

dresden8 wrote: »

Indeed. It is. Lolz.

It appears that Iranians with means are transitting through Belgrade and on into the rest of Europe.

Still, Mossadegh and all that. Still the WASPs fault after all.

‘Mossadegh and all that’.. well argued

If Iranians are fleeing their homeland, and they are, it is because religious and conservative elements within the country pushed back against the idea of Iran becoming a progressive and liberal state as it was before the revolution, preferring to turn it into the brutally repressive theocratic hell that it is today

I don’t particluarly blame them for wanting to escape Iran. But the increase in crossings in the last couple of months have highlighted a lack of a coherent strategy from the British border force. Sometimes it takes a crisis (though I don’t think this really amounts to one) to force a solution

dresden8

Folkstonian wrote: »

‘Mossadegh and all that’.. well argued

If Iranians are fleeing their homeland, and they are, it is because religious and conservative elements within the country pushed back against the idea of Iran becoming a progressive and liberal state as it was before the revolution, preferring to turn it into the brutally repressive theocratic hell that it is today

I don’t particluarly blame them for wanting to escape Iran. But the increase in crossings in the last couple of months have highlighted a lack of a coherent strategy from the British border force. Sometimes it takes a crisis (though I don’t think this really amounts to one) to force a solution

Blowback might take 60 years or so, but the Brits (along with their American "special friends") broke Iran.

So fnck them.

They broke it, they bought it.

road_high

Christy42 wrote: »

Hilariously if they decode to stay they will claim the EU bullied them into it.

See that’s the problem- another two decades of the same “EU bullying us” ****e if they stay. I think get them out, paddle away on their own in the shark pond of world trade.

road_high

VonZan wrote: »

Are exports down to the UK by 10% in goods or services or both? I would be wary of that figure if it included services as there are a lot of companies impacting Irish trade figures that don't really have a presence in the state bar paying a small amount of CT and an audit fee.

More so than the brexit I’d say it’s the expensive Euro that’s effected our exports to UK. I think I read somewhere the volume of imports from the UK to here had risen? Makes sense with the cheaper GBP. So much for them needing us more eh?

flatty

dresden8 wrote: »

Blowback might take 60 years or so, but the Brits (along with their American "special friends") broke Iran.

So fnck them.

They broke it, they bought it.

We were a more than willing partner in the more recent invasions of Iraq.

First Up

VonZan wrote:

Are exports down to the UK by 10% in goods or services or both? I would be wary of that figure if it included services as there are a lot of companies impacting Irish trade figures that don't really have a presence in the state bar paying a small amount of CT and an audit fee.

Its goods and they are not down by 10%. They are down to 10% of our total exports.

RobMc59

First Up wrote: »

Its goods and they are not down by 10%. They are down to 10% of our total exports.

The loss of good will and trust caused by brexit to the Irish/UK relationship is the worst effect of all this.

J Mysterio

RobMc59 wrote: »

The loss of good will and trust caused by brexit to the Irish/UK relationship is the worst effect of all this.

It is huge I have to say. We were in a good place there for a while. Cameron apologising for abuses by the army in NI, the Queen and Martin McGuinness shaking hands, the Queens visit to Ireland and her speech. Relations were at their best for some time and seemingly had no ceiling.

No matter which way you look at it, Brexit is a complete disaster, just madness. It has set everything back and, as you say, damaged goodwill and trust.

The London Book Review article Francie linked to yesterday is really interesting in this regard - what the 'consensus feeling' is to Brexit in a variety of EU countries. Ultimately, many have simply lost a lot of respect for the UK in this, I can't blame them.

It's often said that many of the Brexiteers - or just people who support Brexit - are the uneducated or uninformed, but I was startled talking to my parents over Christmas to learn that many family friends or relations we have in the UK are for Brexit, and so they don't discuss it. These are people I would have considered to be worldly, erudite, informed and sensible. Boggles the mind.

ambro25

J Mysterio wrote: »

<...>

It's often said that many of the Brexiteers - or just people who support Brexit - are the uneducated or uninformed, but I was startled talking to my parents over Christmas to learn that many family friends or relations we have in the UK are for Brexit, and so they don't discuss it. These are people I would have considered to be worldly, erudite, informed and sensible. Boggles the mind.

My (UK) mother in law is spending the Festive Season with us in Luxembourg, been here since mid-Dec. She holidayed with us in southern France this summer. She's never discussed Brexit in front of me yet, I only know that she voted for it through my wife.

I "caught" her sobbing quietly the other morning. She was taken in by the anti-immigrant crisis talk of the campaigns at the time. She's lately realised at last, hearing my wife, my kid and I talking about it every now and then after a latest development, that we'll (probably) never move back to the UK, after what the country has become and done to us as a multinational family. She's also copped for a daily dose of multinational continental news every night (Lux, Belgian & French news), fully realising how little at least some countries on t'Continent (i) cover Brexit and (ii) think of the UK now.

We've always had a very open, frank and friendly relationship with each other. She was, still is, a very smart and perceptive lady, very well-travelled as well. Just more elderly, and grown (kept, should I say) too trusting in this post-truth day and age.

To say she bitterly regrets her vote, is the epitomy of understatements. I'm not bitter about her vote (heck, I have plans to go exfiltrate her from the UK overnight, if it ends up Mad Max'ing); I just wish she'd opened more about it, when it mattered: it's not as if her daughter and I haven't been a couple for 25 years, married 22 of those, nor as if she didn't see us move & live in Ireland, then visited us every time she pleased, all under FoM.

Evd-Burner

ambro25 wrote: »

My (UK) mother in law is spending the Festive Season with us in Luxembourg, been here since mid-Dec. She holidayed with us in southern France this summer. She's never discussed Brexit in front of me yet, I only know that she voted for it through my wife.

I "caught" her sobbing quietly the other morning. She was taken in by the anti-immigrant crisis talk of the campaigns. She's lately realised at last, hearing my wife, my kid and I talking about it every now and then after a latest development, that we'll (probably) never move back to the UK, after what the country has become and done to us as a multinational family.

She's also copped for a daily dose of multinational continental news every night (Lux, Belgian & French news), fully realising how little at least some countries on t'Continent (i) cover Brexit and (ii) think of the UK now.

To say she bitterly regrets her vote, is the epitomy of understatements. I'm not bitter about it. I just wish she'd opened more about it, when it mattered: it's not as if her daughter and I haven't been a couple for 25 years, married 22 of those, nor as if she didn't see us move & live in Ireland, then visited us every time she pleased, all under FoM.

She will still be able to visit she will just have to apply for an ETIAS and have some limitations imposed which if she is only over to visit will not make much of a difference. Did she reply about anything when you informed her you would never move back?

jochenstacker

dresden8 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/486911/Migrants-travelling-to-UK-across-the-Channel-in-makeshift-boats-and-dinghys

No mention of Iranians here.

www.expre... well, no need to read any further than this.

ambro25

Evd-Burner wrote: »

She will still be able to visit she will just have to apply for an ETIAS and have some limitations imposed which if she is only over to visit will not make much of a difference. Did she reply about anything when you informed her you would never move back?

We know all that well.

But she's alone now and, at her age and ever-decreasing levels of mobility and independence, there's a sell-by-date and it's not that far away.

So her choice is, move country and abandon the UK to live with us, or (when the time comes) live out the rest of her days in a care home with an annual or bi-annual visit from us.

Depending on the flavour of Brexit, and the specifics of reciprocated measures governing UKinEU/EUinUK residency, a choice to be made either by end 2020 (2022 if extended)...or within the next 80 days.

That's on nobody else but Leave snake oil merchants, politicians, xenophobes and other assorted wastes of human DNA. I don't class duped Leave voters like my M-i-L in that group - never have.

ancapailldorcha

jochenstacker wrote: »

www.expre... well, no need to read any further than this.

Please read the charter before posting again. This is below the standard of posting for this forum.

judeboy101

Sky and BBC reporting its mostly iranians, they have the money to pay for the crossing / boats. UK won't bring other ships from med to patrol as they afraid it will encourage more crossings.

devnull

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's often said that many of the Brexiteers - or just people who support Brexit - are the uneducated or uninformed, but I was startled talking to my parents over Christmas to learn that many family friends or relations we have in the UK are for Brexit, and so they don't discuss it. These are people I would have considered to be worldly, erudite, informed and sensible. Boggles the mind.

Whilst there certainly is a link to the more educated you are, the least likely you are to vote Brexit, all the polls also suggested that the age plays a factor as well - I know in my own family that whilst the older well educated people are less supportive for Brexit than the older uneducated, they are still more supportive of it than the younger educated.

The older generation at least in my experience believe what they read in the newspaper and don't challenge it. They are used to a period where there is not the kind of misinformation going on that is now. You challenge the Brexiteer people in my family about their beliefs and they'll not be able to properly back anything up, instead they'll come out with what they saw on TV, read in the paper or 'everyone knows that" or 'my friend told me'.

McGiver

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The % of goods exported to UK is down to 9% and continues to fall

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsoctober2018/

At this stage, my concern is more about imports. I've noticed how many consumer goods are in fact British in Ireland, including good/niche food products.

ancapailldorcha

judeboy101 wrote: »

Sky and BBC reporting its mostly iranians, they have the money to pay for the crossing / boats. UK won't bring other ships from med to patrol as they afraid it will encourage more crossings.

Mod: We have a thread on Muslim immigration on this forum. Please take future discussion of this topic there.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

At this stage, my concern is more about imports. I've noticed how many consumer goods are in fact British in Ireland, including good/niche food products.

I'm still wondering what the like's of amazon will do if theres a no deal. As an example We're currently tied to Amazon.co.uk for many things (prime/free delivery/video and music etc) because were near one another but if the UK crashes out then the .co.uk site will become nonviable as import taxes would apply and wipe out any value. I can switch to .de for stuff but the likes of free shipping to Ireland is not available from that site and prime is of far less use on the .de site. I actually have to wonder if we'll either get our own amazon.ie site or if we'll be transferred to one of the other continental sites for stuff as we'll be rather isolated without the UK for some things for a while.

Leroy42

The main problem, and why the polls haven't moved more than marginally, is that the entire UK, including the media and politicians, still operate under the notion that nothing is going to change.

Sure there may be checks at the border but a few new boats will sort that out. And a few minutes extra in the queue is no biggie.

They firmly believe, lead by the likes of IDS etc, that a deal will be done at the last minute so nothing will change. (Except all the things they don't like of course, they never seem to be able to explain this contradiction.

downcow

devnull wrote: »

Whilst there certainly is a link to the more educated you are, the least likely you are to vote Brexit, all the polls also suggested that the age plays a factor as well - I know in my own family that whilst the older well educated people are less supportive for Brexit than the older uneducated, they are still more supportive of it than the younger educated.

The older generation at least in my experience believe what they read in the newspaper and don't challenge it. They are used to a period where there is not the kind of misinformation going on that is now. You challenge the Brexiteer people in my family about their beliefs and they'll not be able to properly back anything up, instead they'll come out with what they saw on TV, read in the paper or 'everyone knows that" or 'my friend told me'.

This is more patronising nonsense from the remoaners. This is helping to drive not sures into the arms of brexiteers.

Firstly you left out that the remain was most popular with the wealthy, the establishment, the middle classes and the media, city of London bankers, etc, etc.
You put down those who want to exit by stating the places they get their info. Maybe you could tell me how you got so well informed without using the television and print media, the knowledge you already have from experience and discussion with friends?? I think the only thing you didn’t put down was google:-).
And while you are at it. What are the great facts you process that has formed such certainty in you mind about the disaster that brexit would be?

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

The main problem, and why the polls haven't moved more than marginally, is that the entire UK, including the media and politicians, still operate under the notion that nothing is going to change.

Sure there may be checks at the border but a few new boats will sort that out. And a few minutes extra in the queue is no biggie.

They firmly believe, lead by the likes of IDS etc, that a deal will be done at the last minute so nothing will change. (Except all the things they don't like of course, they never seem to be able to explain this contradiction.

The problem is that they're gonna realise too late how much of a clusterfúck of a situation they've landed themselves in and only disaster capitalists like moggs will basically get the last laugh if they do. Not only that but the EU giving up to 1year leeway after brexit on things like flights etc means that while it helps buisnesses by giving them breathing space to adapt it will be essentially a slow continuous procession of restrictions, additional costs and bad news which will weight down the UK longer and make it more painful over time.

Infini

downcow wrote: »

This is more patronising nonsense from the remoaners. This is helping to drive not sures into the arms of brexiteers.

Firstly you left out that the remain was most popular with the wealthy, the establishment, the middle classes and the media, city of London bankers, etc, etc.
You put down those who want to exit by stating the places they get their info. Maybe you could tell me how you got so well informed without using the television and print media, the knowledge you already have from experience and discussion with friends?? I think the only thing you didn’t put down was google:-).
And while you are at it. What are the great facts you process that has formed such certainty in you mind about the disaster that brexit would be?

Wouldn't call it nonsense. Older people will sometimes tend to look at things through the nostalgia glasses and think oh things were better back then etc. It's a natural reaction to the changing times.

Also if your gonna use the remoaner argument I can use the Bullshíteer responce and that oh so truthful bus right at the top of the list of their lies and deceptions and thats just the beginning of it. Lets not forget all the statements they made then contradicted themselves down the road even just a few weeks later. Brexit is a mistake because all the arguments made for it have been proven hollow and quite a few of the things that have happened have come to pass though not all because at the end of the day predictions are not 100% guaranteed. That being said quite a few of these things have happened before the UK has even hit their arse on the door on the way out!

As for your whole argument seriously your obviously posting in a way that "oh its all the vested interest groups/establisment lying" argument. Lets be clear Sterling in the 2 years since Brexit has dropped drastically its nearly 33% down from its height at one point. On top of that there's been a halt to investment well documented in this and previous threads and thing will get worse because when people don't know what happens their first reaction regardless of their line of business is to hold on everything until things become clear because blind decisions cost them time and money when they dont pan out. And dont get me started on the likes of the Daily Fail and co and their deliberately distored tabloid BS.

Lets be clear Brexit is a policy with absolutely NO benefit and all Drawbacks because some of those in England cannot share power with others and when they dont get their own way they resort to blaming everyone else and not their own faults. It will end badly.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

The main problem, and why the polls haven't moved more than marginally, is that the entire UK, including the media and politicians, still operate under the notion that nothing is going to change.

Sure there may be checks at the border but a few new boats will sort that out. And a few minutes extra in the queue is no biggie.

They firmly believe, lead by the likes of IDS etc, that a deal will be done at the last minute so nothing will change. (Except all the things they don't like of course, they never seem to be able to explain this contradiction.

Yes, that's a good point. I suspect also that a big part of the Brexit vote is that the Leave voters thought their country way too big and way too powerful to fail. They imagined they could take a spin on the roulette wheel with their future, but that given their huge clout in the world, things would carry on as normal no matter what.

ambro25

downcow wrote: »

This is more patronising nonsense from the remoaners. This is helping to drive not sures into the arms of brexiteers.

Firstly you left out that the remain was most popular with the wealthy, the establishment, the middle classes and the media, city of London bankers, etc, etc.
You put down those who want to exit by stating the places they get their info. Maybe you could tell me how you got so well informed without using the television and print media, the knowledge you already have from experience and discussion with friends?? I think the only thing you didn’t put down was google:-).

The research underpinning devnull's points is ample, from sources as varied as academia, polls and Parliament reports, and long published (Google has its uses: just bang in the string 'leave voter profile studies' and have a gander).

It's not a good look to denigrate it over a year and crumbs later, moreover as bald claims without any sort of counter-factual research materials.

downcow wrote: »

And while you are at it. What are the great facts you process that has formed such certainty in you mind about the disaster that brexit would be?

I can't speak for devnull, but for at least some like myself, that certainty comes from factual practicing of UK and EU law for close to 20 years, and thus a factual understanding of the legal consequences of terminating one's adherence to legal treaties: no treaty membership means no applicable laws; no applicable laws means no legal effects, reciprocal or otherwise; no legal effects means no relationship. Nada. N-o-t-h-i-n-g.

"Nothing" means no data exchanges between the EU and the UK, no UK pilots nor UK planes nor UK cars nor UK nuclear parts/products certified for export to the EU, no UK agrifood goods allowed into the EU unless phytosanitary-checked and vetted, no UK financial or legal services allowed into the EU27, etc, etc, etc.

Overnight on 29 March 2019.

Bar very few exceptions willingly consented by the EU27 under its own contingency plans, because it's in the EU27's collective interest to do so, and over short terms (up to 12 months for the longest, and all resiliable instantly if the EU27 so chooses).

You don't have to like reading hard truths. Doesn't make them any less truthful all the same.

WomanSkirtFan8

[quote= I suspect also that a big part of the Brexit vote is that the Leave voters thought their country way too big and way too powerful to fail."


Yep. A perfect example of good ole hubris in it's purest and truest sense . To me, it sounds too much like "unsinkable".
Now, where have we all heard that one before?!

Strazdas

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

[quote= I suspect also that a big part of the Brexit vote is that the Leave voters thought their country way too big and way too powerful to fail."


Yep. A perfect example of good ole hubris in it's purest and truest sense . To me, it sounds too much like "unsinkable".
Now, where have we all heard that one before?!

It explains why most countries wouldn't go near a Leave referendum, they'd be fully aware that the consequences of leaving without a plan would be pretty disastrous. The Brexit voters were convinced though that the UK was almost like a superpower and that walking away from union would have virtually zero negative impact.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

It explains why most countries wouldn't go near a Leave referendum, they'd be fully aware that the consequences of leaving without a plan would be pretty disastrous. The Brexit voters were convinced though that the UK was almost like a superpower and that walking away from union would have virtually zero negative impact.

It remains to be seen just what the impact will be when the UK leaves.

As soon as they do so, expecting that they will at least continue to function without all out anarchy, they are going to become a somewhat aggressive force towards the European project. I suspect that Euro-Sceptics in other countries still within the EU are going to both use and be used by the UK in an effort to forge new ties.

It has the potential to be very messy and will just take a sufficient right wing government (Hungary/Poland/France/Italy???) to grant a referendum on their membership and then they will have the UK on the outside promising all sorts of things in an effort to sway opinion towards leaving.

It is ironic that given the events of WW2, that we are now facing a period where the UK could be one of the most destabilising forces in Europe (Russia aside) and Germany trying to advocate for stability and unity.

As Angela Merkle said, we will find out just how much we have learnt from WW2 when all who remember it are gone.

1st dalkey dalkey

" What are the great facts you process that has formed such certainty in you mind about the disaster that brexit would be?"

In the short term I don't think that anyone is in any doubt about the disaster a no deal Brexit would be. Even JRM talked of it taking 50 years to recover.
In the long term it may well be that the UK would be better off on its own, but it could just as easily be that they wont. Long term prediction is far more unreliable then short term.
And, as someone said, in the long term we are all dead.
Taking May's deal and working towards more Brexit in stages over the next few decades is the sensible thing to do, if you are intent on a real sustainable Brexit.
It maintains reasonable relationships that allows for a reverse of course if things don't go according to plan in the future.
A no deal Brexit is just a childish strop.