Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Strazdas

Tell me how wrote: »

It remains to be seen just what the impact will be when the UK leaves.

As soon as they do so, expecting that they will at least continue to function without all out anarchy, they are going to become a somewhat aggressive force towards the European project. I suspect that Euro-Sceptics in other countries still within the EU are going to both use and be used by the UK in an effort to forge new ties.

It has the potential to be very messy and will just take a sufficient right wing government (Hungary/Poland/France/Italy???) to grant a referendum on their membership and then they will have the UK on the outside promising all sorts of things in an effort to sway opinion towards leaving.

It is ironic that given the events of WW2, that we are now facing a period where the UK could be one of the most destabilising forces in Europe (Russia aside) and Germany trying to advocate for stability and unity.

As Angela Merkle said, we will find out just how much we have learnt from WW2 when all who remember it are gone.

I can't see any other country leaving in the near future. Even the European far right have no particular problem with EU membership.

On the specific issue of EU membership, I would class the Brexiteers as 'extreme right' : they believe that the UK cannot belong to any form of single market or customs union, never mind political union.

Charles Babbage

ambro25 wrote: »

We know all that well.

But she's alone now and, at her age and ever-decreasing levels of mobility and independence, there's a sell-by-date and it's not that far away.

So her choice is, move country and abandon the UK to live with us, or (when the time comes) live out the rest of her days in a care home with an annual or bi-annual visit from us.

Depending on the flavour of Brexit, and the specifics of reciprocated measures governing UKinEU/EUinUK residency, a choice to be made either by end 2020 (2022 if extended)...or within the next 80 days.

Now any like this can go to another European country, no questions about how long they will stay, and avail of the public health facilities. So quite apart from a permanent move a prolonged stay for recuperation following an illness is easy to do.

That said, few enough Britons have family in other EU countries, although I would expect a higher proportion of those that do to oppose Brexit.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

I can't see any other country leaving in the near future. Even the European far right have no particular problem with EU membership.

On the specific issue of EU membership, I would class the Brexiteers as 'extreme right' : they believe that the UK cannot belong to any form of single market or customs union, never mind political union.

They are perfectly fine with a Union, as long as everyone accepts that the UK is at the head of it (British Empire/Commonwealth for instance).

If the buildings of the EU parliament were in London, there would be no Brexit.

downcow

Infini wrote: »

Wouldn't call it nonsense. Older people will sometimes tend to look at things through the nostalgia glasses and think oh things were better back then etc. It's a natural reaction to the changing times.

Also if your gonna use the remoaner argument I can use the Bullshíteer responce and that oh so truthful bus right at the top of the list of their lies and deceptions and thats just the beginning of it. Lets not forget all the statements they made then contradicted themselves down the road even just a few weeks later. Brexit is a mistake because all the arguments made for it have been proven hollow and quite a few of the things that have happened have come to pass though not all because at the end of the day predictions are not 100% guaranteed. That being said quite a few of these things have happened before the UK has even hit their arse on the door on the way out!

As for your whole argument seriously your obviously posting in a way that "oh its all the vested interest groups/establisment lying" argument. Lets be clear Sterling in the 2 years since Brexit has dropped drastically its nearly 33% down from its height at one point. On top of that there's been a halt to investment well documented in this and previous threads and thing will get worse because when people don't know what happens their first reaction regardless of their line of business is to hold on everything until things become clear because blind decisions cost them time and money when they dont pan out. And dont get me started on the likes of the Daily Fail and co and their deliberately distored tabloid BS.

Lets be clear Brexit is a policy with absolutely NO benefit and all Drawbacks because some of those in England cannot share power with others and when they dont get their own way they resort to blaming everyone else and not their own faults. It will end badly.

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth. Take your first point about the bus. My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service.
As for the remain predictions. We were told by great and good that the economy would crash the day after the referendum if we voted out (not after we left - the day after the vote). This patently did not happen, indeed the is all time record high employment in UK today.
So while this nonsense continues I think we are headed out fast as people can see the spin of the remainders. And I say this as someone who didn’t vote because I was neutral. I am growing more of a brexiteers everyday

Folkstonian

Tell me how wrote: »

They are perfectly fine with a Union, as long as everyone accepts that the UK is at the head of it (British Empire/Commonwealth for instance).

If the buildings of the EU parliament were in London, there would be no Brexit.

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

Charles Babbage

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth.

In no way did they equally stretch the truth. But then again this is one of the most common lies, a bit like the old canard that both communities in NI are equally responsible for sectarianism.



The devaluation of truth will be one of the more serious long term effects of Brexit in Britain, its proponents see no need to found their assertions in reality at all.

Silent Running

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

I wonder if there was a concerted effort made, media bias, dirty money and busses wrapped, would there be an appetite then?

McGiver

Tell me how wrote: »

They are perfectly fine with a Union, as long as everyone accepts that the UK is at the head of it (British Empire/Commonwealth for instance).

If the buildings of the EU parliament were in London, there would be no Brexit.

This is one of the core issues - English political class inability/unwillingness to cooperate with other countries. It is very evident domestically as an inability to arrange the UK into a functioning four nation state in a form of quasi-federation or federation, as well as internationally as inability/unwillingness to be a committed member of supranational organisation and a collection of many states where the decisions are not made in Westminster but collectively elsewhere.
It stems from three things - geography (it's a big island with no land borders), politics (Empire and all that) and 20th century history (were quite isolated from the effects of WW1 and WW2 as in there was no battle field on their territory really, were not occupied or defeated in WW2 either).

In short, majority of the English political class are a not a team player at all at the moment. There seems to be constant battle between isolationists, imperialists and globalists internationalists.

McGiver

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

NATO is a military alliance. Not an economic and quasi-political union/confederation. Two completely different things. NATO doesn't create regulations and does not debate and collectively decide on plethora of issues. The only thing it collectively decides on is whether to intervene in a certain conflict or not for example, very limited scope as opposed to the EU.

EdgeCase

I'm actually more concerned that this could trigger a cascade of problems in the UK itself, leading to a big unstable mess sitting off the coast of continental Europe and attached to Ireland.

The UK could go a whole lot of different ways after Brexit but I don't honestly believe that the British public are diehard libertarians, who want their social democracy dismantled and replaced by some version of Victorian ultra capitalism of the type being proposed by some of the Tories. That's where the Tories will meet their comeuppance as they've basically sold lies about protectionism and increased public expenditure and are intent on delivering fairly brutal reforms that remove all of the safety nets.

How the British go on to interact with Europe and the world generally remains to be seen. If they think they can rebuild the empire or something equivalent they are in for a very unpleasant shock as the world has moved on and they're at best a mid sized fading old power that's increasingly irrelevant.

I would suspect the most likely outcome is they end up as a poorer state that is left trying to suck up to superpowers. The USA isn't what it used to be and may have huge internal problems to deal with after Trump. I can't see them really being that focused on what the UK is doing and it's likely China will attempt to just use its financial power to control as much as possible in the UK.

I would potentially see a much weaker Britain in a decade's time, probably dancing to Beijing's tune.

McGiver

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

By the way, this observation has been repeatedly made by several continental European authors, seems to be the overall impression of the Irish people and I have read quite a few English authors concluding the same. Do you think it's a coincidence?

McGiver

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would suspect the most likely outcome is they end up as a poorer state that is left trying to suck up to superpowers. The USA isn't what it used to be and may have huge internal problems to deal with after Trump. I can't see them really being that focused on what the UK is doing and it's likely China will attempt to just use its financial power to control as much as possible in the UK.

I would potentially see a much weaker Britain in a decade's time, probably dancing to Beijing's tune.

Add Russian increase in collusion, spying and economic activity as well. The Chinese for sure. And US will profit from any deregulation and/or chaos regardless of their political situation as the big corporation will smell blood and go for the meat under any US leadership Trump or not, so to say.

Tell me how

Folkstonian wrote: »

Very sweeping and unsubstantiated.

I don’t think there are many people in the U.K. looking to leave NATO, for instance, other than the oddball Trotskyists of Momentum.

Certainly not much appetite among the wider public.

Have you heard about the result of the referendum and seen the conversation since then?

What sort of substantiation are you looking for?

Folkstonian

McGiver wrote: »

By the way, this observation has been repeatedly made by several continental European authors, seems to be the overall impression of the Irish people and I have read quite a few English authors concluding the same. Do you think it's a coincidence?

Maybe, I speak pretty good French and a fair amount of German but don’t really read much of their media outside of sports publications so I don’t actually know what they are saying about England or Brexit.

Personally, I’ve always been in the group labelled unenthusiastic remainers. I think close economic partnership with the continent is vital but have little desire in being part of a political union. I know lots of people at home, mostly well educated, well off, and relatively young who would be broadly in the same category.

Remainers, but not particularly fanatical about the European project.

So maybe there’s some truth in it, but the evidence is all quite anecdotal.

RobMc59

EdgeCase wrote: »

I'm actually more concerned that this could trigger a cascade of problems in the UK itself, leading to a big unstable mess sitting off the coast of continental Europe and attached to Ireland.

The UK could go a whole lot of different ways after Brexit but I don't honestly believe that the British public are diehard libertarians, who want their social democracy dismantled and replaced by some version of Victorian ultra capitalism of the type being proposed by some of the Tories. That's where the Tories will meet their comeuppance as they've basically sold lies about protectionism and increased public expenditure and are intent on delivering fairly brutal reforms that remove all of the safety nets.

How the British go on to interact with Europe and the world generally remains to be seen. If they think they can rebuild the empire or something equivalent they are in for a very unpleasant shock as the world has moved on and they're at best a mid sized fading old power that's increasingly irrelevant.

I would suspect the most likely outcome is they end up as a poorer state that is left trying to suck up to superpowers. The USA isn't what it used to be and may have huge internal problems to deal with after Trump. I can't see them really being that focused on what the UK is doing and it's likely China will attempt to just use its financial power to control as much as possible in the UK.

I would potentially see a much weaker Britain in a decade's time, probably dancing to Beijing's tune.

Your assessment of the UK post a hard brexit is frightening and the potential similarity to a post WW1 Germany is a sobering thought.-Let's hope it doesn't happen as the last thing the UK,or Europe needs is a vacuum into which a modern version of Oswald Mosley could step,feeding the UK public's insecurities.

A Dub in Glasgo

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth.

If you believe that, would you then agree that the whole referendum campaign and vote was contaminated, and the government should not make any decisions based on what is logically an unreliable result?

downcow wrote: »

My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service.

Your understanding is wrong. You are relying entirely on figures provided by Boris Johnson that have been disputed and rejected by just about everyone else, including Nigel Farage. The 400m is Boris' projection of what the UK might have paid in 2020-2021 ... bearing in mind that the EU hasn't finalised its budget for this period; and in any case the 400m and the 350m did not take account of Britain's rebate, which reduced the actual amount to 276m/wk.

On the otherhand, yes, you are correct - once out of the EU, Westminster will be able to decide what to spend the money on. So far, we know that they've allocated £1bn as a bribe to the DUP, £4bn as a bribe to a bunch of African states; £14m to a ferry company with no ferries, and another £90m to genuine (non-British) ferry companies to keep imports flowing.

That's over a third of the "£350m a week" already spent on nothing in particular before the UK even starts spending on everything that's needed to properly "take back control" - customs officers, for example - and replacing financial supports that previously came from the EU - like farm subsidy payments. Oh, and the UK economy has been harmed by the Leave vote. It may not have been the dramatic crash predicted by some, but it is real economic damage nevertheless.

EdgeCase

He basically put vaguely estimated costs on the side of a bus and presented none of the benefits.

I mean I don't like paying for petrol but my car doesn't run without it. If you only presented the fact that petrol costs me €40 a week, I would probably stop buying it, if I didn't understand it's what makes my car go!

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth. Take your first point about the bus. My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service.
As for the remain predictions. We were told by great and good that the economy would crash the day after the referendum if we voted out (not after we left - the day after the vote). This patently did not happen, indeed the is all time record high employment in UK today.
So while this nonsense continues I think we are headed out fast as people can see the spin of the remainders. And I say this as someone who didn’t vote because I was neutral. I am growing more of a brexiteers everyday

You quite clearly are not neutral nor have you ever been neutral.

All your posts are a testament to your Brexiteering credentials even down to the use of jaded terminolgy such as 'remoaners'.

I'm yet to hear anyone even vaguely neutral refer to remain voters as remoaners.

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

I don’t have the time or the energy to respond to all that. Problem is you seem to think remain told truth and leave told lies. The fact is they both equally stretched the truth. Take your first point about the bus. My understanding is that the bus said there would be £350m available to health service that is currently going to Eu this is factually correct (or as was pointed out this week it was under estimated actually over 400) this is the money that won’t go to Eu so our elect reps in UK can decide to do with it what the wish incl health service. As for the remain predictions. We were told by great and good that the economy would crash the day after the referendum if we voted out (not after we left - the day after the vote). This patently did not happen, indeed the is all time record high employment in UK today.
So while this nonsense continues I think we are headed out fast as people can see the spin of the remainders. And I say this as someone who didn’t vote because I was neutral. I am growing more of a brexiteers everyday

The UK economy is down 2.5% relative to everyone else since the referendum. And the UK can hit the reset button anytime so Brexit might not even happen.

HM Revenue & Customs are down £500m a week.
So there is no more money for the NHS (the £20Bn doesn't even cover inflation)
Total loss is more than the EU Divorce Bill

Check property values from before the referendum
Now do the same in Euro, almost every home owner in the UK is poorer.



The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

McGiver

Folkstonian wrote: »

Personally, I’ve always been in the group labelled unenthusiastic remainers. I think close economic partnership with the continent is vital but have little desire in being part of a political union. I know lots of people at home, mostly well educated, well off, and relatively young who would be broadly in the same category.

It sounds more like a Brexiteers' narrative, I wouldn't call that Remainer actually. The EU is a political union - something actually resembling a confederation. The following is one of the Brexiteers typical arguments - "We are/were fine with the EU as an economic block but not with a EU as a political union" and add all the red herrings about super-state, undemocratic nature of the EU (House of Lords anyone?) etc. In reality, the EU and all it's predecessors, including the EEC which UK joined, had and have political integration and political dimension at their core, since the Treaty of Rome, and even before that in 1950 Schuman's declaration (founding moment of the ECSC). In fact, the EU always was an federalist/integration project attempted via an economic integration (not the other way round). This is clear to anyone who has read anything about the history and workings of the EU. Yes, there were/are different "schools of thought" within the EU i.e. the federalists and not-so-federalists, but you would find that the reformist/not-so-federalist voice was represented mostly by the UK and gained some momentum only several years after the UK had joined the EEC once Eurosceptic/Thatcherite/Reaganite groups gained momentum in the UK. I would dare to posit that the federalists have always been the major/dominant force in the EU. I am not judging here whether that is good or bad, but just trying to show that the notion of "EU has changed from an economic block to a quasi-superstate" is blatantly untrue - it's always been a political project aimed at a gradual political integration.

The "we are OK with economic integration but not with political one" is perhaps a valid proposition but it is certainly a minority opinion and I can hardly see how it can work with the EU as it is now, with its goals and principles, and given the single currency amongst other things. Economic integration without political one has its limits (think NAFTA for example), hence this is not the EU's objective, it has gone and wants to go further than that.

lawred2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK economy is down 2.5% relative to everyone else since the referendum. And the UK can hit the reset button anytime so Brexit might not even happen.

HM Revenue & Customs are down £500m a week.
So there is no more money for the NHS (the £20Bn doesn't even cover inflation)
Total loss is more than the EU Divorce Bill

Check property values from before the referendum
Now do the same in Euro, almost every home owner in the UK is poorer.



The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

and that was even pointed out and admitted during the campaign

If I remember correctly the net figure was about £210m per week... So I'm not sure who exactly was revising figures upwards to £400m per week recently..

road_high

Leroy42 wrote: »

The main problem, and why the polls haven't moved more than marginally, is that the entire UK, including the media and politicians, still operate under the notion that nothing is going to change.

Sure there may be checks at the border but a few new boats will sort that out. And a few minutes extra in the queue is no biggie.

They firmly believe, lead by the likes of IDS etc, that a deal will be done at the last minute so nothing will change. (Except all the things they don't like of course, they never seem to be able to explain this contradiction.

There’s no real realities of Brexit yet as it hasn’t actually happened- a hard Brexit has to play itself out and happen for the downsides to become lived drawbacks. Only then might some regret begin and even then I can just see them blaming the EU anyhow- it’ll be the evil EU being spiteful rather than it implementing its own rules to an outside nation

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The Bus numbers ignore the money coming back from the EU in the rebate, farming, development grants, contract for spacecraft and such that mean that the UK gets back most of the EU money directly or indirectly.

Apart from not presenting the net figure (all what you mentioned above), most importantly it doesn't substantiate the multiplication effect on the economy stemming from the EU membership. You know all the global companies that are present and employ people in the UK because of the EU membership etc., all trade enabled by the EU (45% EU, 10% EFTA, 10% EU FTAs) approx 65% of UK's exports etc.

An Ciarraioch

Jacob Rees-Mogg is travelling to the North to attend a DUP fundraising dinner:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jacob-rees-mogg-turns-down-tories-to-fundraise-for-dup-1-8753578

McGiver

lawred2 wrote: »

and that was even pointed out and admitted during the campaign

If I remember correctly the net figure was about £210m per week... So I'm not sure who exactly was revising figures upwards to £400m per week recently..

Gross £350m
- rebate £100m
- EU investments in the UK £90m
Net £160m

I.e. BoJo liar liar pants on fire, in reality it's less than a half of that figure in net. Apart from the fact that the figure is totally meaningless when not put into a broader context e.g. % of UK's budget and what UK gets back for it.

tuxy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg is travelling to the North to attend a DUP fundraising dinner:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jacob-rees-mogg-turns-down-tories-to-fundraise-for-dup-1-8753578

Have they spent the £1 billion the tories promised then?

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Gross £350m
- rebate £100m
- EU investments in the UK £90m
Net £160m

I.e. BoJo liar liar pants on fire, in reality it's less than a half of that figure in net. Apart from the fact that the figure is totally meaningless when not put into a broader context e.g. % of UK's budget and what UK gets back for it.

Economic growth has stalled so it's more like

Nett £160m less £500m = about £350m a week less money.

And that's not counting the billions set aside for Brexit preparations or the billions promised to the farmers.


Also Trump has U-turned yet again on a deal with the UK so don't expect any help from there. Brexit is just a constant drip drip of bad economic news for the UK.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46720323

Donald Trump's offer of a "quick, massive, bilateral trade deal" will not be possible if Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement is approved, the US ambassador to the UK has warned.

President Trump had previously said her Brexit proposal sounded like a "great deal for the EU".

road_high

tuxy wrote: »

Have they spent the £1 billion the tories promised then?

Even if the North were to get an extra billion in funding it’s still a pitiful amount compared to what it needs. Roads wise it needs tens of billions to have a network comparable to the south or even their beloved UK.
Our government speaks in billions of funding for this that and the other all the time. It’s just symbolic of what a pathetic little begging bowl NI is now

Theanswers

road_high wrote: »

Even if the North were to get an extra billion in funding it’s still a pitiful amount compared to what it needs. Roads wise it needs tens of billions to have a network comparable to the south or even their beloved UK.
Our government speaks in billions of funding for this that and the other all the time. It’s just symbolic of what a pathetic little begging bowl NI is now

Very few of the border counties in the ROI have a good road network...

Perhaps our government (ROI) should invest in that direction instead of below the Galway/ Dublin line...