Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Leroy42

And therein lies the problem. The UK want everything specially tailored to them, which in a one v one situation I am sure the EU wouldn't have an issue with.

The problem is that the deal does not exist in a vacuum. Countries like Turkey, Switzerland and Norway are all watching not to mention the remaining 27 who will now be asked to cover the shortfall in funds .

The EU cannot simply give the UK what it wants without serious consequences to the EU.

But this is something the UK have completely failed to take account of. Not only are they only concerned about their own issues, I'm not sure they are even aware of the factors driving the Eid position.

cryptocurrency

Leroy42 wrote: »

And therein lies the problem. The UK want everything specially tailored to them, which in a one v one situation I am sure the EU wouldn't have an issue with.

The problem is that the deal does not exist in a vacuum. Countries like Turkey, Switzerland and Norway are all watching not to mention the remaining 27 who will now be asked to cover the shortfall in funds .

The EU cannot simply give the UK what it wants without serious consequences to the EU.

But this is something the UK have completely failed to take account of. Not only are they only concerned about their own issues, I'm not sure they are even aware of the factors driving the Eid position.

I'm sure they have taken this into account which is why the EU either gives it up or there is no deal.

cryptocurrency

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Turkey can make suggestions but has to follow EU rules on the stuff covered by their CU.

So they will throw a wobbly if the UK are allowed a say in customers union rules that are forced upon Turkey.

Turkey makes almost as many vehicles as the UK. With a fraction of the labour costs. (and they buy nearly a billion dollars of parts from Bosch. )
http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-US/infocenter/publications/Documents/AUTOMOTIVE.INDUSTRY.pdf

UK accounts for 1/5th of German car exports. That is just a start. Stop trying to compare the UK to Turkey.

Anthracite

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I'm sure they have taken this into account which is why the EU either gives it up or there is no deal.

Gives up what? The reason for its own existence?

I don't think you understand organisations.

cryptocurrency

Anthracite wrote: »

Gives up what? The reason for its own existence?

I don't think you understand organisations.

The EU will keep sticking to the party line even as the flames are all around them. Reminds me of the film Downfall.

It is quite amazing with all the obvious problems now and coming down the line that people are buying the EU lines.

Anthracite

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK accounts for 1/5th of German car exports. That is just a start. Stop trying to compare the UK to Turkey.

Funny then that the German car manufacturers are ON THE RECORD as being more concerned about protecting the Single Market than protecting a single market.

Still, I'm sure the UK's nationalised car factories will be churning out high-quality cars of the people under the post-Brexit Corbinist Marxist utopia - god knows, the Japanese won't be using them for anything.

Can anyone name anthing other than cheese that is made in England these days?

cryptocurrency

Anthracite wrote: »

Funny then that the German car manufacturers are ON THE RECORD as being more concerned about protecting the Single Market than protecting a single market.

Still, I'm sure the UK's nationalised car factories will be churning out high-quality cars of the people under the post-Brexit Corbinist Marxist utopia - god knows, the Japanese won't be using them for anything.

Can anyone name anthing other than cheese that is made in England these days?

Weapons and Financial products. The EU is well aware of both export excellences of the UK.

Anthracite

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Weapons and Financial products. The EU is well aware of both export excellences of the UK.

Can anyone tell me whether a 'financial product' is a good or a service? Hmm...what's the story on selling services across borders...tough is it?

Follow-up question: does any other country in Europe make weapons? I think one or two...let me see...off the top of my head:

Spain
Italy
Czech Republic
Germany
Sweden
France
Belgium

Funnily enough, the UK comes in behind both Germany AND France in terms of making and exporting arms.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/european-arms-exports-on-the-rise/

I think that 'argument' has backfired on you somewhat.

cryptocurrency

Anthracite wrote: »

Can anyone tell me whether a 'financial product' is a good or a service? Hmm...what's the story on selling services across borders...tough is it?

Follow-up question: does any other country in Europe make weapons? I think one or two...let me see...off the top of my head:

Spain
Italy
Czech Republic
Germany
Sweden
France
Belgium

Funnily enough, the UK comes in behind both Germany AND France in terms of making and exporting arms.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/european-arms-exports-on-the-rise/

I think that 'argument' has backfired on you somewhat.

There are weapons and there are weapons and there are services and there are financial products. There are even financial weapon products.

It is all very complex. Even google doesn't have the details handy.

Midlife

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Weapons and Financial products. The EU is well aware of both export excellences of the UK.

This is a silly argument destined to go nowhere.

Your take on it seems to be that the both the EU imports (weapons and services) and exports (cars from Germany) from and to the UK are a source of strength at the negotiating table for the UK and somehow both conversly weaknesses for the EU. But obviously a similar loss of both imports and markets will not harm the UK.

This makes no sense.

It seems to be honest that you're committed in the belief that the EU is crashing down any minute now and the Uk is holding all the cards. When Boris comes back, he'll sort it all out. I don't think this is based on much other than hope and belief. To be honest though, that's as much as a lot of economists go on.

Anyway, we'll know who was right in a few years.

It's been one massive cock up though, and you can't deny that. The Uk entered negotiations with no mandate, plan or leverage and are now pissed of with what they got.

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU will keep sticking to the party line even as the flames are all around them. Reminds me of the film Downfall.

It is quite amazing with all the obvious problems now and coming down the line that people are buying the EU lines.

This is an incredibly ironic post.

cryptocurrency

Midlife wrote: »

This is a silly argument destined to go nowhere.

Your take on it seems to be that the both the EU imports (weapons and services) and exports (cars from Germany) from and to the UK are a source of strength at the negotiating table for the UK and somehow both conversly weaknesses for the EU. But obviously a similar loss of both imports and markets will not harm the UK.

This makes no sense.

It seems to be honest that you're committed in the belief that the EU is crashing down any minute now and the Uk is holding all the cards. When Boris comes back, he'll sort it all out. I don't think this is based on much other than hope and belief. To be honest though, that's as much as a lot of economists go on.

Anyway, we'll know who was right in a few years.

It's been one massive cock up though, and you can't deny that. The Uk entered negotiations with no mandate, plan or leverage and are now pissed of with what they got.

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

There is a saying 'pride comes before a fall' and it is very apt here. The UK has put it's hand up and is being taught a lesson about it's place in the world. A lesson it really didn't need to learn, it could've sat quietly at the back of the class and kept cogging the homework.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is a saying 'pride comes before a fall' and it is very apt here. The UK has put it's hand up and is being taught a lesson about it's place in the world. A lesson it really didn't need to learn, it could've sat quietly at the back of the class and kept cogging the homework.

This arrogance is what the problem is.

Can you list the EU nations. Read them, Read them twice. Then add the fact that the Eastern, Southern Med and northern European all have different ideas and values. This hasn't even started yet.

Who is going to teach the UK this lesson? The countries that matter are not on the list.

UK relations in the Anglosphere is far more important and influential. Both London and Washington know full well that Australia is a far more important strategic partner to them than the French. You couldn't even compare the two.

Midlife

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Hang on. So you're saying THIS IS THE PLAN!!

Wow.

I agree btw on not going back. Would tear the country in two.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This arrogance is what the problem is.

Can you list the EU nations. Read them, Read them twice. Then add the fact that the Eastern, Southern Med and northern European all have different ideas and values. This hasn't even started yet.

Who is going to teach the UK this lesson? The countries that matter are not on the list.

UK relations in the Anglosphere is far more important and influential. Both London and Washington know full well that Australia is a far more important strategic partner to them than the French. You couldn't even compare the two.

They have already been taught the lesson. Have your stuff together before coming to the negotiating table.
They got owned, basically, because the UK is basically slowly breaking up. The centre cannot hold.

The choice they have is a bad deal or No Deal. :rolleyes:

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

May becomes a hero by making herself and her country look like ridiculous, incompetent, self-destructive fantasists?

That can only be true if Brexiters really, really hate the UK.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have already been taught the lesson. Have your stuff together before coming to the negotiating table.
They got owned, basically, because the UK is basically slowly breaking up. The centre cannot hold.

The choice they have is a bad deal or No Deal. :rolleyes:

No deal is a great deal.

UK will not break up. In fact, when the remainers look like complete hysterical babies two years from now when the collapse of the economy doesn't happen that they spent years going on about, most will never get taken seriously again. They need to be reminded each and every time they even attempt to open their mouths.

Just point and laugh at them every time they try to talk.

Blair, Clegg, Geldoff, and the rest..never on TV again. Gonna be great.

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a great deal.

UK will not break up. In fact, when the remainers look like complete hysterical babies two years from now when the collapse of the economy doesn't happen that they spent years going on about, most will never get taken seriously again. They need to be reminded each and every time they even attempt to open their mouths.

Just point and laugh at them every time they try to talk.

Blair, Clegg, Geldoff, and the rest..never on TV again. Gonna be great.

Are you living in some parallel universe? Parliament will dissolve before it allows a no deal.
No deal is perfect for those who want the UK to break up. I could see it happen inside 10 years after a No Deal scenario.

cryptocurrency

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you living in some parallel universe? Parliament will dissolve before it allows a no deal.
No deal is perfect for those who want the UK to break up. I could see it happen inside 10 years after a No Deal scenario.

Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose.

Ireland can't afford the north, it would bankrupt them and most are not into it anyway.

Once Europe starts to properly melt most will count their blessings the UK left.

Aren't you the poster who claimed Corbyn would be PM? Never going to happen. He is a national security threat. You need to learn a few things first.

Corbyn will never happen, its just silly talk. He is a useful idiot in opposition for now as he is no threat to power.

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a great deal.

For reasons which have been well-rehearsed in public discourse, "no deal" would represent an economic disaster and a political crisis for the UK. You can argue about how big a disaster and how much of a crisis, but anyone who asserts that it would be a "great deal" is either delusional or dishonest.

bobmalooka

SNIP. No more quips please.

sKeith

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Scotland had their referendum and they will have to wait a bit longer before another. It was well beaten and would still lose.

It was their democratic right to call another referendum anytime after the brexit vote results came in. Scotland wanted then to stay within the EU.
Scotland remaining in the UK was won because they wanted to stay within the EU and independence at the time threatened possible years of hard times before regaining EU membership. They still want to remain in the EU.
Scotland outside the EU no longer has that fear, so they will ask and be granted another referendum whenever they seek it, would you hold them in a union against their will? (UK & EU) They have not called such a referendum yet because the outcome of the current situation is still in flux, and if the UK was to remain, then scotland would remain with it. If UK was to leave the EU, then I believe Scotland would take every opurtunuty to regain access to EU, even if that route was with independence from the UK.

black forest

In the meantime others are putting together a quite simple evaluation of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/akulith/status/1080460889839595522

If this is not bringing clarity to some people nothing will.

Peregrinus

black forest wrote: »

In the meantime others are putting together a quite simple evaluation of the current situation . . .

Note that the Twitter thread is from Eleanor Sharpston, a British QC who has been an Advocate General at the Court of Justice of the EU since 2006. So she writes on this stuff with some authority.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not sure that something which has cost thousands their lives is comedy stuff and I for one am curious as to why they are crossing all those European countries to get to the UK?

Relatively few of them are doing this. As is typical, the media in the UK focus on asylum seekers coming to the UK, but that doesn't mean that all, or even most, asylum seekers are coming to the UK. The ones that aren't are not noticed by the UK media, but they're there all the same.

RobMc59 wrote: »

The latest suggestion by sajid javid that the migrants could be dropped off at any safe port and mentioned French and other ports is controversial but would spread the load perhaps.

No. Spreading the load would involve more asylum applications being handled by the UK, not less. The UK has 12.7% of the EU population, but only handles 4.8% of asylum applications made in the EU (as of 2017; the 2018 figures aren't out yet).

Christy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Midlife wrote: »

This is a silly argument destined to go nowhere.

Your take on it seems to be that the both the EU imports (weapons and services) and exports (cars from Germany) from and to the UK are a source of strength at the negotiating table for the UK and somehow both conversly weaknesses for the EU. But obviously a similar loss of both imports and markets will not harm the UK.

This makes no sense.

It seems to be honest that you're committed in the belief that the EU is crashing down any minute now and the Uk is holding all the cards. When Boris comes back, he'll sort it all out. I don't think this is based on much other than hope and belief. To be honest though, that's as much as a lot of economists go on.

Anyway, we'll know who was right in a few years.

It's been one massive cock up though, and you can't deny that. The Uk entered negotiations with no mandate, plan or leverage and are now pissed of with what they got.

If the UK went for a hard brexit from day one it would have been seen as bullish, unfriendly, uncooperative and not good optics domestically. If TM manages to drag this out but stumbling and stuttering, have the whole EU chuckling smugly till February and an "accidental no deal" happens then she will go down as a political hero in the UK.

There are too many reasons for the UK to leave the EU that are vital but are extremely unpalatable to be discussed with the snowflake masses, especially during vegan January.

Global politics is a very dark art.

Staying the EU makes no sense from a national security standpoint and if anyone is honest with themselves they would stop the ridiculous idea the UK can still remain. The climb down would mean the nation is dead and the support of the majority of its people gone with it. That is national suicide. An Indian/Pakistani standoff is far preferable to the utter humiliation of cowing to the EU now.
The thought of remaining in the EU now after the last few years make many sick to their stomach.

Ah the old I can't explain the arguments but trust me they are really good line. Shockingly unlikely to go down well on a discussion forum.

People have been talking about the break up of the EU for years. Indeed they kept saying the splits would be obvious over Brexit. Instead all the infighting has been in the United Kingdom.

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Turkey can make suggestions but has to follow EU rules on the stuff covered by their CU.

Yes, that's a pretty logical and obvious part of being in a Customs Union.

Enzokk

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Just a way of saving face for the EU when in reality any legal detail on backstop being temp means they did renegotiate

So you are saying that the EU will concede that the backstop will only last until a deal is made that takes it place? That is what the EU has been saying all this time though. If however there is a time limit to the backstop in the next 2 weeks then you are right, if not then basically you are just full of hot air.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK accounts for 1/5th of German car exports. That is just a start. Stop trying to compare the UK to Turkey.

Is that by value or volume?

EdgeCase

Peregrinus wrote: »

Note that the Twitter thread is from Eleanor Sharpston, a British QC who has been an Advocate General at the Court of Justice of the EU since 2006. So she writes on this stuff with some authority.

The problem is that they don’t listen to expert opinions that contradict dogma. She’s basically just going to get ignored, just as everyone else who has pointed these facts out ad nausium over the past couple of years.

I would be very surprised if there’s a sudden shift to expert opinion being given the hearing it ought to be getting.

Maybe there will be more realistic discussion but given the track record to date, I don’t hold out much hope.