Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

What is the UK going to bring to the developing world that they don't already have

Leadership, apparently.

Good thread below about the wrongheaded notion the Brits have that everyone else is in need of their leadership, from the Empire to the Commonwealth to Europe and now on to the developing world.

Wait, I forgot EFTA, some of them think they should lead that.

https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1079767307155574789

jochenstacker

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yes, the disconnect continues, it ll be interesting to see the world post brexit/trump/rise of the right etc etc, I suspect it won't be rosey

Ok, may have misinterpreted your post.

RobMc59

Just reading about Taoiseach Varadkar speaking to Merkel about the wording of the TM agreement-why is TM fiddling whilst he is so proactive?-Any chance of a leader swap?:)

Leroy42

What can TM realistically be doing? She has a deal in her hand. IMO, it is actually quite a decent deal that she has landed. The problem is that it is neither as good as the deal they currently have (Remain) and delivers none of the benefits that a No Deal would (sovereignty etc) and she has allowed the narrative that a No deal is basically risk free to continue throughout her time as PM.

The only talks she should be having is with the HoC. EU is done, is was a long negotiation and both sides seem to have come to an agreement. The EU seem to feel that they have given everything that can be given and cannot move any further.

Thus TM now needs to deal with her own parliament.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

Thus TM now needs to deal with her own parliament.

She needs to convince parliament, and the population, that a deal which nobody likes is absolutely the deal that was voted for based on a result of 34% voting one way, 33% voting another way and the other 33% not being arsed to get out of bed and vote.

She has delivered exactly what was asked for by the vote.

Leroy42

Michael Gove was out yesterday saying that tariffs on beef and sheep would be 40% in a No deal. Guess Gove has suddenly turned as well now.

mrbrianj

Bambi wrote: »

I think the 2008 crash shows we haven't had that good for that long, it's more an inevitable consequence of a ruling class that's out of touch with a sizable proportion of the population on a few key issues.

Thats a good point, but if you consider the ruling class as the real rulers - (ie the non politicans) and that things like 2008 may have enlightened them to the possible advantages of a devalued sterling and cheaper cost base in the uk.

a simplified example is their car industry, the 10% tariffs for future exports to the EU will be more than covered out by reduction in the pound and labour costs, whilst they may also get a sales bounce from how european made cars are now going to be more expensive to the UK market. Great news if you own the company and whip profits out of the UK.

Not so cool if you work on the factory floor and you are now eating chlorinated chicken or hormone beef for lunch and can no longer afford your 2 weeks in Benidorm as the euro is too expensive. Not cool at all if you work in one of the other industries or services that wont survive Brexit.

When you hear mention of taking back control, you have to think taking back control of who?

10000maniacs

RobMc59 wrote: »

Just reading about Taoiseach Varadkar speaking to Merkel about the wording of the TM agreement-why is TM fiddling whilst he is so proactive?-Any chance of a leader swap?:)

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

robinph

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

That is probably just so people don't have to turn the volume up. They do it with loads of videos whoever is speaking in whatever language.

20silkcut

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Problem is England and the British Empire spent a few hundred years fighting all those European countries
(Despite the English being part Saxon/viking/irish/Roman/Norman...) and sinking their ships to maintain trade supremacy

The English education system is still quite narrow minded and insular. This whoke brexit shambles can be seen partly as a product of that

I think brexit has highlighted this and it is shockingly embarrassing for the English education system.
In the last three years large swathes of the British public and political class have displayed a complete absence of understanding of the relationship between Britain and Ireland for the last 200 years.
There is a complete absence of understanding of who emerged as the strongest countries after world war 2 and how Britain was defeated and destroyed in all but name and her empire left in tatters.
There is a complete absence of understanding of international trade and political alliances and a complete ignorance of any benefits of EU membership which is staggering.
Despite the fact that Britain has prospered immensely since joining the EEC. Some of its towns and cities have doubled in size over the last 50 years and its infrastructure is second to none.
This has somehow been construed to be a negative however.

Strazdas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Leadership, apparently.

Good thread below about the wrongheaded notion the Brits have that everyone else is in need of their leadership, from the Empire to the Commonwealth to Europe and now on to the developing world.

Wait, I forgot EFTA, some of them think they should lead that.

https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1079767307155574789

Fascinating stuff, especially the part about the English hard right having contempt for the Commonwealth in past decades.

It has long being suggested that the main reason they can't stand the EU is because they see it as a "foreign" organisation with its HQ in a foreign country. If the EU was based in London, it would be the best thing ever.

Dyr

20silkcut wrote: »

I think brexit has highlighted this and it is shockingly embarrassing for the English education system.
In the last three years large swathes of the British public and political class have displayed a complete absence of understanding of the relationship between Britain and Ireland for the last 200 years.

The old cliche is that the tragedy of the two islands shared past is the British won't remember history and the Irish won't forget

I think its far to say that Irish people and the Continental Europeans are far more clued in about Britain through access to British media than vice versa.

boggerman1

James O'Brien's show today sums up how f***ed up the British education system is and has lead to an sizable minority of idiots who shouldn't be allowed to vote.when asked to give positives none could.another lad on about Britain's farmers being better off that they should import from Africa all their fruit and vegetables cause its nicer.asked about carbon footprints he asks what's that.the mind boggles

10000maniacs

boggerman1 wrote: »

James O'Brien's show today sums up how f***ed up the British education system is and has lead to an sizable minority of idiots who shouldn't be allowed to vote.when asked to give positives none could.another lad on about Britain's farmers being better off that they should import from Africa all their fruit and vegetables cause its nicer.asked about carbon footprints he asks what's that.the mind boggles

It is very easy to blame the uneducated masses for the Brexit result, but in reality it wasn't their fault. The Brexit referendum was called for the wrong reason, namely to relieve Tory internal political pressure.
Referendums are supposed to be a check and balance on the power of a states representatives, to stop them acting against their subjects best interests. They are not supposed to be tools in the hands of the party in power to be used for party political purposes.
What surely should have been the correct process is as follows.
The Commons would be first required to pass legislation to access Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on withdrawal from the EU. The government would then be legally prevented from putting this legislation into effect until it had been approved by a binding national referendum. And that binding referendum would be similar to our Lisbon referendum in complexity setting out every legal scenario possible.
This would set out well in advance the decision-making procedure for Brexit. In this way, everyone would be aware of the rules of the game before the question of withdrawal even arises.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

It is very easy to blame the uneducated masses for the Brexit result, but in reality it wasn't their fault. The Brexit referendum was called for the wrong reason, namely to relieve Tory internal political pressure.
Referendums are supposed to be a check and balance on the power of a states representatives, to stop them acting against their subjects best interests. They are not supposed to be tools in the hands of the party in power to be used for party political purposes.
What surely should have been the correct process was as follows.
The Commons would be first required to pass legislation to access Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on withdrawal from the EU. The government would then be legally prevented from putting this legislation into effect until it had been approved by a binding national referendum. And that binding referendum would be similar to our Lisbon referendum in complexity setting out every legal scenario possible.
This would set out well in advance the decision-making procedure for Brexit. In this way, all everyone would be aware of the rules of the game before the question of withdrawal even arises.

I'd take a step further back and have the rump of the party that wants to leave the EU, come up with a plan as to how to actually do that and what it would actually mean.



We'd be still waiting.

RobMc59

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

The BBC do that if someone from Newcastle or Sunderland are speaking on tv otherwise the rest of Britain can't understand:)

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

The BBC do that if someone from Newcastle or Sunderland are speaking on tv otherwise the rest of Britain can't understand:)

I think in Leo's case it is not his accent, but the fact he says anything at all.

trellheim

Backstop a 'con trick', says DUP's Wilson

The DUP's Brexit spokesman has said "there's not" any way in which his party can support Mrs May's Brexit deal.

Sammy Wilson's comments come after the party’s deputy leader Nigel Dodds insisted his party's opposition to Irish border backstop proposals had not lessened after a meeting with Mrs May yesterday.

"In fact we're more alarmed about what is coming out from the EU and especially the Irish Government," Mr Wilson said when asked if he was reassured by signals from Brussels.

The usual rhetoric from the DUP .... https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0104/1020256-brexit/

However if they manage to hold to "No Deal" then they get what they want which is .. the absence of a backstop. ( unstated here is of course the No deal beans and shotguns catastrophe that ensues unless one side or the other blinks )

FrancieBrady

trellheim wrote: »

The usual rhetoric from the DUP .... https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0104/1020256-brexit/

However if they manage to hold to "No Deal" then they get what they want which is .. the absence of a backstop. ( unstated here is of course the No deal beans and shotguns catastrophe that ensues unless one side or the other blinks )

The inescapable reality for the DUP is that the Tories and Westminster were more than willing to throw them under the bus for a deal and probably still will.

Last throes, springs to mind. I think most reasonable unionists have gotten the point now tbh and it will be interesting to see how that affects subsequent events and trends.

PeadarCo

trellheim wrote:

However if they manage to hold to "No Deal" then they get what they want which is .. the absence of a backstop. ( unstated here is of course the No deal beans and shotguns catastrophe that ensues unless one side or the other blinks )

The thing is for the DUP will there be any consequences for them in the event of no deal? Brexit has split along community lines. If you vote DUP or any unionist party you are not going to suddenly vote for a remain/nationalist party. Look at the rise of the effective DUP/SF collation. Very few of the recent scandals in the North have been about the competence at least in economic terms of a parties ability to govern. Most have been about more emotional issues like flags.

Given how the DUP are viewing this as an attempt to bring a united Ireland closer(aided by SF calls for a border poll and not helped by the fact Brexit has brought the issue back to the fore) will there really be serious consequences for the DUP in next set of elections. Unless there's a new party who will disaffected unionist voters vote for ?

FrancieBrady

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is for the DUP will there be any consequences for them in the event of no deal? Brexit has split along community lines. If you vote DUP or any unionist party you are not going to suddenly vote for a remain/nationalist party. Look at the rise of the effective DUP/SF collation. Very few of the recent scandals in the North have been about the competence at least in economic terms of a parties ability to govern. Most have been about more emotional issues like flags.

Given how the DUP are viewing this as an attempt to bring a united Ireland closer(aided by SF calls for a border poll and not helped by the fact Brexit has brought the issue back to the fore) will there really be serious consequences for the DUP in next set of elections. Unless there's a new party who will disaffected unionist voters vote for ?

I think, judging the opinion locally, that if a referendum in the north was called on Leave or Remain that many many unionists would vote Remain. Only diehard DUP unionists would vote Leave imo

An Ciarraioch

Assuming the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, is there much likelihood of splits in both the Tories and Labour with the view of forming a centre party that could get an alternative through the Commons? Granted, FPTP works against the idea, but there was a National Coalition in similar circumstances in the Thirties.

fly_agaric

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is for the DUP will there be any consequences for them in the event of no deal? Brexit has split along community lines. If you vote DUP or any unionist party you are not going to suddenly vote for a remain/nationalist party. Look at the rise of the effective DUP/SF collation. Very few of the recent scandals in the North have been about the competence at least in economic terms of a parties ability to govern. Most have been about more emotional issues like flags.

Given how the DUP are viewing this as an attempt to bring a united Ireland closer(aided by SF calls for a border poll and not helped by the fact Brexit has brought the issue back to the fore) will there really be serious consequences for the DUP in next set of elections. Unless there's a new party who will disaffected unionist voters vote for ?

Well, the RHI scandal that contributed to collapse of the Executive in NI was a typical corruption / mismanagement issue that can happen in all democracies rather than a flags/culture issue. I know its not the only, or even the main reason there is no devolved government operating in NI.

Optimistically, DUP support might weaken if they get blamed for a disorderly Brexit and resulting damage to the North's economy and UUP might regain some of their former vote share.

Much more likely alright is that it will be easier for a DUP voter to decide to blame the Irish and the EU for the whole mess and continue to vote DUP to keep the "enemy" at bay.

Leroy42

In terms of the DUP, it is very unlikely that current voters would move across to SF or SDLP, but they could move back to the UUP. So the DUP are not immune from losing support. But given that the recent past has been more about keeping the others from getting in, it would take a huge shift for people to take the risk in voting for the UUP due to fear of splitting the vote and thus letting SF has the power.

fly_agaric

I think the power sharing/D'Hondt setup there for the Assembly guarantees SF can only take a limited amount of power, even if unionist party votes were split while nationalist vote remained as a bloc.
You would end up with SF as the largest party taking on the "First Minister" job (which is coeval with the "Deputy" despite those descriptions being used, who would be DUP or UUP if there was a vote split). However the symbolism of that would be disturbing for unionists...anyway sorry, will stop the off topic posts now!

First Up

An Ciarraioch wrote:

Assuming the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, is there much likelihood of splits in both the Tories and Labour with the view of forming a centre party that could get an alternative through the Commons? Granted, FPTP works against the idea, but there was a National Coalition in similar circumstances in the Thirties.

I think UK politics is in for a pretty turbulent time but I nothing on that scale is going to happen before March 29.

bilston

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see Varadkar is starting to get under the BBC's skin. They are putting subtitles on his recent interviews. I wonder is this just BBC making a little Brexit statement?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46751625/brexit-was-a-problem-created-in-the-uk-leo-varadkar

No, the BBC do this on lots of their online content. I think it's so you can watch the content without turning the volume up, so for example you're on a train or bus and you haven't any headphones, but you want to watch a news report then hey presto, you can and not annoy anyone else at the same time.

PeadarCo

FrancieBrady wrote:

I think, judging the opinion locally, that if a referendum in the north was called on Leave or Remain that many many unionists would vote Remain. Only diehard DUP unionists would vote Leave imo

That wouldn't surprise me if their was a referendum. However what do the DUP have to lose with their stance? They can come out with whatever statements they want but will they be punished by voter's? If the north's voting patterns remain similar to a tribal headcount why would they change their policy. Business bodies can say whatever they want but politicians won't change unless they feel they will be voted out. In the Brexit situation it's especially true as alot of leavers don't care and or believe the warnings from a whole range of experts in different fields.

J Mysterio

Sky reporting the following from a poll of 'grassroots Tories':

57% No Deal 23 % May Deal 15% Remain 5% No Preference

Idiot Andrew Bridgen going on about Project Fear still. Bottomly supporting May Deal.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

No, the BBC do this on lots of their online content. I think it's so you can watch the content without turning the volume up, so for example you're on a train or bus and you haven't any headphones, but you want to watch a news report then hey presto, you can and not annoy anyone else at the same time.

That's it exactly. Wish a few more would do it. Especially those sites that autoplay videos when you open a page.