Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU produced a good report on a smart border which would have solved any Irish border problems, essentially it was the same solution as the European Research Group's.

The EU took a look at it, decided that it solved too many problems and hid it under the cupboard.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

judeboy101

20silkcut wrote: »

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

That report was highly speculative and theoretical. Trade experts who read it said it was full of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes' and extremely unlikely ever to work in real life.

The British right wing press and the hard Brexiteers seized on it though and claimed for a year afterwards that it was the solution to all the Irish border problems.

20silkcut wrote: »

If such solutions existed then shops and supermarkets wouldn’t need checkouts and we would see such technology in action everyday.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

In theory, we would need neither cash nor card but would allow facial recognition software to identify us and process payments directly from our account.

There is quite the gap between things being possible and practical, both technologically and culturally.

CelticRambler

judeboy101 wrote: »

Amazon have stores in america with no checkout

Motorways in Ireland have scanners that automatically log your toll before letting you through. That doesn't stop people tailgating (or "bonnetgating") to avoid paying. This kind of technology only works where either you have the manpower to enforce compliance (e.g. airport security/microwave body scanners) or where the population is habitually compliant with the law. Even in the Republic, that's not a particularly notable trait.

RobMc59

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It just shows how much Sterling has dropped.

Seeing as how they are in the business they probably in it for the long haul.

Whatever happens after Brexit planes will still fly. It's just that UK carriers will have some disadvantages compared to EU and US carriers.

As you point out sterling has dropped since 2016 but it's questionable French investors sunk billions into an airport thinking it may be able to make a profit down the line if planes are allowed to fly in and out of the UK.
Personally I'm hoping the UK comes to its senses but there are a myriad of scenarios apart from the absolute worst case some seem only to see.
I think May's deal will be rejected unless the EU ride to her rescue (it might be in their interest to help her get that deal over the line) and there is a 2nd vote and how that goes is anyone's bet.

BlitzKrieg

the whole smart border 2.0 point is fine. But it requires that the EU/UK have a comprehensive trade deal first. It says as much in that paper as the first and foremost requirement.

A bilateral EU-UK agreement regulating advanced customs cooperation avoiding
duplication and with possibility to carry out tasks on each other ;
Mutual recognition of Authorised Economic Operators (AEO);
A Customs-to-Customs technical agreement on exchange of risk data;
Pre-registration of Operators (AEO) and People (Trusted Commercial Travellers
programme in combination with a Certified Taxable Person programme);
Identification system by the border;
A Single Window with one-stop-shop-elements;
A Unique Consignment reference number (UCR);
Simplified Customs declaration system (100% electronic) with re-use of export
data for imports;
Mobile Control and Inspection Units;
Technical surveillance of the border (CCTV, ANPR etc).

So a smart border is impossible in a hard brexit scenario

And a soft brexit scenario requires guarantees from both the UK and EU not to put the Good Friday Agreement at risk

which is why the EU proposed a bloody backstop.

But the UK is so overfilled with this bizarre fear that the EU would trap them forever using the backstop that the very process that they wanted is being sunk.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

As you point out sterling has dropped since 2016 but it's questionable French investors sunk billions into an airport thinking it may be able to make a profit down the line if planes are allowed to fly in and out of the UK.
Personally I'm hoping the UK comes to its senses but there are a myriad of scenarios apart from the absolute worst case some seem only to see.
I think May's deal will be rejected unless the EU ride to her rescue (it might be in their interest to help her get that deal over the line) and there is a 2nd vote and how that goes is anyone's bet.

The French buyers said they were surprised that they could purchase it for a significantly lesser sum than the 20 times earnings they would have normally expected. In other words, they got a substantial bargain.

LeinsterDub

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

So a smart border is impossible in a hard brexit scenario

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

The French buyers said they were surprised that they could purchase it for a significantly lesser sum than the 20 times earnings they would have normally expected. In other words, they got a substantial bargain.

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

It also assumes a degree of honesty and compliance that would be impossible to guarantee. The scope for people to make very big money would be enormous.

Seth Brundle

10000maniacs wrote: »

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form. Which Irish party in their right mind would take on the political responsibility of doing that?

Absolutely none. It would be as a direct result of a British choice of Brexit. The Irish government have not, do not and will not have had an input into how the UK tears itself apart.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

Well we do know what will happen. The EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months. All of the worst case scenarios are temporary in any case. It's just going to be more expensive for the UK because of having to take all that bureaucracy in house instead of outsourcing it to the EU.


So for the French investors, they may take a hit in earnings for a year or so, but they've still got themselves a bargain.

trellheim

he EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months

Umm... that's a proposal in the event of a no-deal, not an agreement unless you can point me at something ? . In the current no-deal guidance its point-to-point only and its only a proposal, you need more than that !

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Umm... that's a proposal in the event of a no-deal, not an agreement unless you can point me at something ? . In the current no-deal guidance its point-to-point only and its only a proposal, you need more than that !

More than that for what? It's not that relevant in the context of a long term investment. Nobody's saying flight issues will continue indefinitely. So whether the EU proposal goes ahead or something else is agreed, there will be business as normal after a short term hiatus.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

That maybe the case but it's unlikely they bought a controlling share thinking UK airports will be paralysed after 29th March-don't forget,if the armageddon scenerio comes to pass who knows what may happen-the UK may freeze all EU assets in a bizarre tit for tat squabble.

No. They literally got it for a song.

There's not insider information here on a deal on brexit. It was a bargain whatever happens.

And it's the type of bargain more foreign investors and vulture funds can expect coming.

Great news for the British people..... And not some insider need of everything being hunky dory post brexit

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well we do know what will happen. The EU has agreed to allow flights from the UK on a temporary basis until proper certification is in place or for nine months. All of the worst case scenarios are temporary in any case. It's just going to be more expensive for the UK because of having to take all that bureaucracy in house instead of outsourcing it to the EU.


So for the French investors, they may take a hit in earnings for a year or so, but they've still got themselves a bargain.

And who would deny them that?-There's only the misguided souls(people like JRM and co)who have a ridiculous 19th century British empire attitude to all this-its the same with passports being produced by France and the dredging of ramsgate by the dutch-if they're the most competitive or have the expertise that's how it should be.
By the way I hope all this is irrelevant as the UK stays in the EU.

Gerry T

I don't get the tit for tat comment. Do you not mean tat for tat ?
The UK pulls out of the EU aviation and safety authority and It doesn't have it's own. So it causes a massive problem for UK airlines. And the answer to this, freeze assets it has in the EU

Now most people would say that's just feckin crazy, shot yourself in the foot and fix that by cutting of your arm

Or have I taken you up wrong ?

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

And who would deny them that?-There's only the misguided souls(people like JRM and co)who have a ridiculous 19th century British empire attitude to all this-its the same with passports being produced by France and the dredging of ramsgate by the dutch-if they're the most competitive or have the expertise that's how it should be.
By the way I hope all this is irrelevant as the UK stays in the EU.

Likewise. But they seem to be slow walking themselves (yourself ) over a cliff. At some point, somebody should point out how much this shambles has cost so far, how much it's going to cost in the future with the duplication of all the things the EU used to do for the UK and balance it against the contribution payments. I'm betting that the EU system is cheaper. And better.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

Likewise. But they seem to be slow walking themselves (yourself ) over a cliff. At some point, somebody should point out how much this shambles has cost so far, how much it's going to cost in the future with the duplication of all the things the EU used to do for the UK and balance it against the contribution payments. I'm betting that the EU system is cheaper. And better.

I agree-but do think a plus side of all this being dragged out is leavers seeing Trumps increasingly bizarre behaviour will be thinking "Are we really going to throw our lot in with them?"and might convince more to favour remain over such an uncertain future.

RobMc59

Gerry T wrote: »

I don't get the tit for tat comment. Do you not mean tat for tat ?
The UK pulls out of the EU aviation and safety authority and It doesn't have it's own. So it causes a massive problem for UK airlines. And the answer to this, freeze assets it has in the EU

Now most people would say that's just feckin crazy, shot yourself in the foot and fix that by cutting of your arm

Or have I taken you up wrong ?

I meant in a theoretical worst case scenario which all agree is unlikely to happen.

cml387

Two contrasting opinions on Radio Four's Today programme this morning.

First John (now of course Sir John) Redwood with the usual stuff about nothing to fear from a hard Brexit and everything will be fine.

Ken Clarke was more interesting in that he seems to be advocating revoking article 50 and then sorting out the real politics of withdrawal before supposedly invoking it again when parliament has made up it's mind.

Nothing new really but Ken did dismiss the referendum result as "an opinion poll".


I would really like to sit down and have a congenial glass of wine with Mr Clarke, he seems like a most companionable person.

ThePanjandrum

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

the whole smart border 2.0 point is fine. But it requires that the EU/UK have a comprehensive trade deal first. It says as much in that paper as the first and foremost requirement.

No, it says that there must be an agreement on advanced customs cooperation, the system can still run with no trade agreement at all.

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A smart border is impossible regardless of the kind of Brexit. Smart borders require cameras and scanners etc. It's not possible to do so at over 300 crossings and it's debatable that such infrastructure would survive a week.

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

If there is a hard Brexit or no backstop, that would mean cancelling the Good Friday Agreement in its current form.

What makes you think that. Please use actual quotes from the Agreement instead of claiming that it's somehow inherent though unsaid.

LeinsterDub

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

ThePanjandrum

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

Those are unlikely to be counted among the crossing points on the Smart Border 2.0 because they would not have large volumes of goods crossing there. Of course, the EU might insist on manning the border for phytosanitary purposes but that would be its decision.

Russman

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You know some of these border crossing are basically planks of wood over a steam? How do you propose these cameras and infrastructure are protected?

And don’t some people’s farms / houses actually straddle the border ? You could have livestock crossing several times a day.

ThePanjandrum

cml387 wrote: »

I would really like to sit down and have a congenial glass of wine with Mr Clarke, he seems like a most companionable person.

You've never met Ken Clarke then?

rusty the athlete

Why not, it's perfectly possible.

That's why the brits are training 1000 police officers from the rest of the UK to deal with trouble arising from hard border (as rported in the Guardian yesterday). Meanwhile a 51 year old man is stabbed to death on a train in front of his son yesterday, two women are in critical condition after being stabbed to today and January has started with at least a murder a day. This is what the Maybot calls 'taking back control'. Pity the 1000 police officers, how the brit ruling classes like sending people 'over the top' as long as they don't have to do it themselves.