Brexit Discussion Thread VI

DOCARCH

Going to be interesting to see what the public/political reaction is going to be to this....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit:_The_Uncivil_War

....to be broadcast tonight (C4 at 9pm).

Impeccable timing!

EdgeCase

I was listening to Hilary Benn MP on RTE's Morning Ireland this morning and I wouldn't really share his confidence in the fact that a default Hard Brexit is off the cards. He seemed be of the opinion that the UK government couldn't possibly be that stupid.

I keep hearing people saying that they don't believe that the UK government could be so irresponsible as to just run down the clock to 29th March and allow a crash out to happen by default. I also get the impression that that has been the assumption in the business and investment community. They're all waiting for this nightmare to just end and normal service to be resumed.

So far, nothing that I have seen from the UK would give me any confidence that the system will somehow do something sensible at the last minute. There's a perfect storm and it still very much looks like a crash out is a strong possibility.

Zubeneschamali

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You forget that we have quotas on our WTO schedules to help protect our own farming industry and quotas can also be written into trade deals.

You don't have WTO schedules, just some half-assed proposals copy-pasted from the EUs current schedules (even the currency amounts are still in euros).


Some heavy hitters like Russia are objecting to those proposals, so they will not be certified. Being in a hopelessly weak negotiating position, the UK is going to have to grant extra access to the UK market to other WTO nations over and above what it offered as an EU member.

EdgeCase

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You don't have WTO schedules, just some half-assed proposals copy-pasted from the EUs current schedules (even the currency amounts are still in euros).


Some heavy hitters like Russia are objecting to those proposals, so they will not be certified. Being in a hopelessly weak negotiating position, the UK is going to have to grant extra access to the UK market to other WTO nations over and above what it offered as an EU member.

Bear in mind that that would suit some of the extreme libertarians, who would quite happily see all tariff barriers and all regulations dropped. It would decimate many British industries and fundamentally change life in the UK, but it would fit the model of absolute laissez-faire that is dogma for certain Tories and GOP type in the US. What's 'red tape' to one person is sensible regulation and sane levels of protection for someone else.

I keep hearing discussions of the "Singapore model" which would require the UK to drop public spending to about 15% of GDP - that means no social welfare or NHS.

There are definitely some out there who seem to think that the Brexit vote was carte blanche to dismantle the UK social infrastructure and I really do not think that's what was voted for by almost anyone and could result in very serious political backlashes if it's attempted.

There's a total disconnect between the mainstream of the UK public who are generally very centrist and have expectations that aren't really that different to the Irish public : reasonably good public services, education, health, welfare, moderate taxation and so on. and the extremes of the Tories who seem to want to scrap all of that in favour of total sink-or-swim economics that would cause enormous problems.

CelticRambler

There's a phrase in the Guardian today that must have some characters in the Brexit pantomime choking on their Weetabix:
"The emerging Irish-German nexus ..."
The country that "ought to know its place" in league with the bully-boys of Europe! :eek:

It's an interesting concept to consider, though: the EU's manufacturing powerhouse and traditional giant anchor-state teaming up with what is arguably the Union's most agile and resilient small state, to manage the future development of the bloc. It would be the sweetest irony if Ireland became the UK's proxy voice in Europe post Brexit.

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

(A) From common sense. (B) From experts. The fact that they pose as being dismissive of expert advice in order to secure political advantage doesn't mean that they do actually dismiss it.

Common Sense seems in very short supply. There has been very little common sense on display the last few years. Ideology tends to usurp common sense.

Experts. Not only have they dismissed many experts findings, they have come out and publicly dismissed the very basis of the reports. It would be extraordinary that behind the scenes they were actually accepting of these reports and are simply putting on a show for the TV. I am not saying it couldn't be the case, but I think you think they are thinking logically and see this as the clear picture that we see it.

I would think more of it as a religion. Do religious people place common sense ahead of their belief?

Peregrinus wrote: »

You'll notice a sharp distinction bewteen brexiters in the Cabinet, who have largely dropped the pretence that no deal is acceptable, and Brexiters outside, who insist that it is. This represents different tactical choices; those who have chosen to pretend that a no-deal brexit is acceptable have also positioned themselves so that they will not be responsible for the delivery of Brexit. And this reflects the facdt that, if and when it actually happens, they know that no-deal Brexit will not be acceptable (to the voters).

It is true that cabinet minister have come out with the line that No Deal is costly and TM's deal (or more accurately their deal) is the best option available, but recall the level of support from cabinet in the days leading up to the originally planned vote? Wasn't even close to be a unified cabinet. I fail to see that they have all (those that were against it) now suddenly come around.

In terms of those outside cabinet. I really believe that the likes of IDS, JRM, Baker etc really believe that No Deal is the best option available. I accept that they accept that there are significant costs, but these are 1) worth it and 2) not going to effect them directly.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.) The tide is flowing strongly Labour's way; all he has to do is not bugger it up. He doesn't need to plunge the country into chaos in order to win the next general election. While plunging the country into chaos would probably give him a more decisive election victory, it also gives him a huge problem once he is in office, and makes it much more difficult for him to do the things he wants to do. So, given his druthers, he'd avoid a no-deal Brexit.

They Corbyn hasn't been paying attention to the polls. Labour is not cruising towards power at all. The Tories may well be hit but it appears that Labour is not picking up the support.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Having said that, there is a risk that if Labour starts to bleed support from disappointed Remainers who finally realise that Corbyn is not playing a clever game to deliver Remain or a soft Brexit, Corbyn may realise that he is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and may think, yes, he has to manouvre the Tories into a no-deal Brexit in order to be confident of winning the next election. But it's certainly not his optimal strategy.

That, according to the polls, is already happening.

Zubeneschamali

splinter65 wrote: »

Is it the general consensus then here with you guys that it’s “no deal”?

I see 3 possibilities:


May runs down the clock, and MPs give in and pass her deal to avoid No Deal as the deadline looms.



May tries this, an MPs do not give in and the UK crashes out with no deal.


Finally, May tries this, MPs do not give in and at the last minute Parliament passes a vote instructing May to withdraw A50.


I don't see how we get an election or a 2nd referendum before April, and I can't see the EU27 agreeing to extend the deadline for time for more shenanigans at Westminster.

Igotadose

Leroy42 wrote: »

They Corbyn hasn't been paying attention to the polls. Labour is not cruising towards power at all. The Tories may well be hit but it appears that Labour is not picking up the support.



That, according to the polls, is already happening.

But, where's the "No Brexit" party? That's the problem - there's no other group standing up and saying "vote us in, we will withdraw A50."

It's really sad to see the British as dumb as the Americans are these days. The two countries are becoming less and less distinguishable in their attitudes.

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't see how we get an election or a 2nd referendum before April, and I can't see the EU27 agreeing to extend the deadline for time for more shenanigans at Westminster.

I can see the EU extending A50 if the UK puts a 2nd referendum in motion.

lawred2

Inquitus wrote: »

I can see the EU extending A50 if the UK puts a 2nd referendum in motion.

May will have to be taken out of office then because she is not even going to entertain a 2nd referendum.

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.) The tide is flowing strongly Labour's way; all he has to do is not bugger it up. He doesn't need to plunge the country into chaos in order to win the next general election. While plunging the country into chaos would probably give him a more decisive election victory, it also gives him a huge problem once he is in office, and makes it much more difficult for him to do the things he wants to do. So, given his druthers, he'd avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Having said that, there is a risk that if Labour starts to bleed support from disappointed Remainers who finally realise that Corbyn is not playing a clever game to deliver Remain or a soft Brexit, Corbyn may realise that he is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and may think, yes, he has to manouvre the Tories into a no-deal Brexit in order to be confident of winning the next election. But it's certainly not his optimal strategy.

That sounds like a Baldric cunning plan. It's possible that this is his thought process, but in order for May's deal to go through, it looks like Labour have to either support it or abstain. Either way, that will look bad for Labour as enablers of a brexit a majority of Labour supporters are against. If they vote agianst her deal, then it's hard brexit and again a loss of support.

He could engineer a situation where some Labour MPs support May's deal or he allows a free vote, but that's a risky enough approach as well.

prawnsambo

Igotadose wrote: »

But, where's the "No Brexit" party? That's the problem - there's no other group standing up and saying "vote us in, we will withdraw A50."

The Lib-Dems are a no brexit party. And coincidentally are the only party to make gains in the last polls.

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Lib-Dems are a no brexit party. And coincidentally are the only party to make gains in the last polls.

Vince Cable makes a lot of sense but would possibly be a wasted vote as he hasn't been able to repair the damage done by Clegg.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Vince Cable makes a lot of sense but would possibly be a wasted vote as he hasn't been able to repair the damage done by Clegg.

Yeah. But as a straw in the wind, it's instructive that they are making ground, pretty much at the expense of Labour.

Laois_Man

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.)

FYI, in its latest poll, taken over Christmas, YouGov gives the Tory's a 4% lead! That's more than they had in 2017 election results.

Seth Brundle

Bloody hell...

Assets worth nearly £800 billion ($1 trillion) are being moved from Britain to new financial hubs in the European Union ahead of Brexit, consultancy EY said on Monday.
...
“The closer we get to March 29th without a deal, the more assets will be transferred and headcount hired locally or relocated,” Omar Ali, UK financial services leader at EY, said.
...
Around 2,000 new European roles have been created by financial services companies in response to Brexit, with Dublin, Luxembourg, Frankfurt and Paris the most popular locations, EY said.

Forecasts of hundreds of thousands of UK financial jobs moving to the EU have not materialised, and the Bank of England expects about 4,000 jobs to have moved by March 29.

“Whilst roles will no doubt move from the UK, many firms are only moving those employees deemed essential and are hiring locally given the expense of relocation,” Ali said.

Not sure who predicted the "hundreds of thousands" of financial jobs moving but nonetheless, this shows that the whole thing is damaging for the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/assets-worth-1tn-to-shift-from-uk-to-eu-due-to-brexit-1.3749964

demfad

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.) The tide is flowing strongly Labour's way; all he has to do is not bugger it up. He doesn't need to plunge the country into chaos in order to win the next general election. While plunging the country into chaos would probably give him a more decisive election victory, it also gives him a huge problem once he is in office, and makes it much more difficult for him to do the things he wants to do. So, given his druthers, he'd avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Having said that, there is a risk that if Labour starts to bleed support from disappointed Remainers who finally realise that Corbyn is not playing a clever game to deliver Remain or a soft Brexit, Corbyn may realise that he is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and may think, yes, he has to manouvre the Tories into a no-deal Brexit in order to be confident of winning the next election. But it's certainly not his optimal strategy.

I disagree about Labours chances in the next election. Polling reveals they are currently 6 points behind one of the most shambolic Governments in modern British history by accounts.

It gets worse though: When asked how Labour would fare in the next election if they failed to resist Brexit the gap opens up to 17% 43:26.

I believe Corbyn wants May's deal, his not asking her any Brexit related PMs Questions on the day of the deal indicates this.

Maybe he feels that after Brexit Labour will get the voters to guarantee avoiding a Tory Brexit. But he is risking Singapore in Europe if the polls are reflecting that Labour supporters will punish Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

Russman

Laois_Man wrote: »

FYI, in its latest poll, taken over Christmas, YouGov gives the Tory's a 4% lead! That's more than they had in 2017 election results.

I suspect there's a huge element of stubbornness now in the general population, the whole bunker/siege mentality thing, spirit of Dunkirk and all that malarky. Stirred up no doubt by the red-tops. I think even the moderates on the fence are sick of the whole thing and it has been successfully painted as being the nasty EU's fault, so they think they're better off out of it. There's a harsh lesson coming down the line unfortunately.

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Bloody hell...

Not sure who predicted the "hundreds of thousands" of financial jobs moving but nonetheless, this shows that the whole thing is damaging for the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/assets-worth-1tn-to-shift-from-uk-to-eu-due-to-brexit-1.3749964

The expected mass exodus of UK-based bankers because of Brexit could bring up to 100,000 new jobs to Germany's Frankfurt region over the next four years, according to a study published on Friday.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170825/brexit-expected-to-bring-job-boom-to-frankfurt-study


Here you go

Russman

prawnsambo wrote: »

Either way, that will look bad for Labour as enablers of a brexit a majority of Labour supporters are against. If they vote agianst her deal, then it's hard brexit and again a loss of support.

He could engineer a situation where some Labour MPs support May's deal or he allows a free vote, but that's a risky enough approach as well.

Interesting that it seems Labour have nowhere to go really. As you say, if they support May's deal they'll be punished by their own, and if they "allow" a no-deal they'll be punished by everyone. With a better leader they could have really made gains over the last 12 months and almost banished the Tories for a few election cycles, but Corbyn is so Brexity himself he just can't do it.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Corbyn knows that he is cruising to victory at the next general election. (Does the present Tory government look to you like one that could win a fourth successive general election? No, me neither.) The tide is flowing strongly Labour's way; all he has to do is not bugger it up. He doesn't need to plunge the country into chaos in order to win the next general election. While plunging the country into chaos would probably give him a more decisive election victory, it also gives him a huge problem once he is in office, and makes it much more difficult for him to do the things he wants to do. So, given his druthers, he'd avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Having said that, there is a risk that if Labour starts to bleed support from disappointed Remainers who finally realise that Corbyn is not playing a clever game to deliver Remain or a soft Brexit, Corbyn may realise that he is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and may think, yes, he has to manouvre the Tories into a no-deal Brexit in order to be confident of winning the next election. But it's certainly not his optimal strategy.

demfad wrote: »

I disagree about Labours chances in the next election. Polling reveals they are currently 6 points behind one of the most shambolic Governments in modern British history by accounts.

It gets worse though: When asked how Labour would fare in the next election if they failed to resist Brexit the gap opens up to 17% 43:26.

I believe Corbyn wants May's deal, his not asking her any Brexit related PMs Questions on the day of the deal indicates this.

Maybe he feels that after Brexit Labour will get the voters to guarantee avoiding a Tory Brexit. But he is risking Singapore in Europe if the polls are reflecting that Labour supporters will punish Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

It does seem that people have reached the point of starting to turn on Labour due to the lack of opposition to Brexit from their leader. I would still think that Labour wins a general election as of this moment but if there is a hard Brexit then the chances of Labour winning decreases sharply.

I would think that we are seeing a combination of factors with Labour's response to Brexit. We are seeing their anti-EU sentiment from the leadership group causing inaction to try and stop Brexit and also a reliance on people not putting Brexit at the top of the most important policies with the next election. They are still banking on the NHS being more important to people than Brexit, but I fear they are overplaying their hand in this case. The economy will be up there for people and if Brexit has a detrimental effect on people's livelihoods then it will overtake their concerns for the NHS or at least it will be linked.

So basically Labour is as bad as the Tories right now in regards to their response to Brexit but they are burying their heads in the sand and hoping voters would do the same and focus on domestic policies instead. The problem is Brexit will be intertwined with domestic policies which will bite them in the end.

As for Brexit, the UK have had another test where they try to see what impact delays will have on traffic in Kent.

No-deal Brexit UK lorry exercise under way

Lorries have begun their second practice run from Manston Airport in Kent to Dover as part of the British government's first major test of its plans for UK border disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

'Operation Brock' is designed to test out the disused airfield near Ramsgate as a mass holding bay to ease congestion.

The Heavy Goods Vehicles lined up on the runway before following a route in convoy from 8am, and then again at 11am, to Dover.

The 32km journey usually takes around 30 minutes depending on traffic.

If you want another view of the purpose of the exercise please do read this thread from Tom Peck.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1082146978308476928

Enzokk

Russman wrote: »

Interesting that it seems Labour have nowhere to go really. As you say, if they support May's deal they'll be punished by their own, and if they "allow" a no-deal they'll be punished by everyone. With a better leader they could have really made gains over the last 12 months and almost banished the Tories for a few election cycles, but Corbyn is so Brexity himself he just can't do it.

You say there is nowhere to go, but there is the other option of actively trying to get a second referendum or to cancel article 50. They would then not be supporting Theresa May's deal and would not be allowing for a hard Brexit. At least if they did that they could get those Tory rebels on their side who do not want a hard Brexit either and would have a majority in the HoC as well for this course of action.

Russman

Enzokk wrote: »

You say there is nowhere to go, but there is the other option of actively trying to get a second referendum or to cancel article 50. They would then not be supporting Theresa May's deal and would not be allowing for a hard Brexit. At least if they did that they could get those Tory rebels on their side who do not want a hard Brexit either and would have a majority in the HoC as well for this course of action.

Very true. But the Labour leadership won't go for that, and I think they'd be fearing leaving themselves open to accusations of "not respecting the will of the people" etc. etc. come general election time.
Also, if the leadership are closet Brexiteers themselves, I honestly reckon an effective mutiny by a large chunk of the party is just so far off the reservation for them that they'd barely consider it. I suspect they're torn between domestic concerns and the bigger picture.

foxyladyxx

Enzokk wrote: »

You say there is nowhere to go, but there is the other option of actively trying to get a second referendum or to cancel article 50. They would then not be supporting Theresa May's deal and would not be allowing for a hard Brexit. At least if they did that they could get those Tory rebels on their side who do not want a hard Brexit either and would have a majority in the HoC as well for this course of action.

The hard line Brexiteers have threatened to vote if another referendum is proposed. They will not accept anything but a leave the EU result.

I can foresee violence if that is how it pans out..

Believe me there are extremists in their midst and I really do think the police will have their hands full with law and order.

First Up

I don't there is much point trying to predict where UK politics is going. Both main parties are so badly split it hardly matters whose in power as neither can control their dissenting MPs.

Opinion polls based only on party preference don't and can't reflect that.

LuckyLloyd

First Up wrote: »

I don't there is much point trying to predict where UK politics is going. Both main parties are so badly split it hardly matters whose in power as neither can control their dissenting MPs.

Opinion polls based only on party preference don't and can't reflect that.

I would agree. Both parties are undergoing existential crises on Brexit and have been for near on a half decade. Corbyn fought last year's general election on general policy, not on Brexit

Seth Brundle

On a positive note (for Ireland!) is that we're doing well in terms of numbers of companies (27) moving either people or processes to Dublin (Frankfurt remains in second place, at 17, followed by Luxembourg, at 16. Paris has also moved up the scale, to 15, in November, from 10 in September)

Dublin remains top ‘Brexodus’ location ahead of Frankfurt and Paris, EY says
Some 27 financial companies having committed to moving staff or activities from UK to Republic since the 2016 referendum
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/dublin-remains-top-brexodus-location-ahead-of-frankfurt-and-paris-ey-says-1.3750021

Presumably JRM's investment vehicle is included in this list.

Leroy42

So what do people think TM needs to get from the EU in order to get the deal agreed in HoC and what hope does she have of getting it?

I read an article this morning (can't recall where!) but among the quotes were from EU members basically saying that they had given quite a lot to TM, including the UK wide CU, yet had received nothing in return and feel that giving more will no result in any change, only a demand for even more.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

read an article this morning (can't recall where!) but among the quotes were from EU members basically saying that they had given quite a lot to TM, including the UK wide CU, yet had received nothing in return and feel that giving more will no result in any change, only a demand for even more.

I think it was in the Guardian article which mentioned the Irish-German talks.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

I think it was in the Guardian article which mentioned the Irish-German talks.

Ah yes, there it is, thanks

“They are now looking for more concessions, but they just can’t be given. The Brits banked this major concession and just did nothing with it. People can’t understand why it wasn’t sold as a victory for May.

“The EU cannot now give another concession ahead of the vote because if the deal isn’t ratified, it means any new concessions will simply be banked again to no benefit at all. It would be pointless.” https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/07/germany-and-ireland-step-up-efforts-to-find-brexit-border-fix