Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

vicwatson

Ty Prehistoric Lark wrote: »

Clear skies tonight in Kerry. Lots of stars to be seen

And no better place to see them

ZX7R

wind was worse for me this morning traveling from maynooth to suncroft,
rode from suncroft to maynooth this evening at 6pm was not as bad as feared.
but i think this was due to the change in wind direction it was at my back most of the time,rain wasmore heavy tonight.
crossing the curragh was the worst on the bike:eek:

brendanwalsh

Another non entity 'storm'. This over calling has increased In frequency since the snow storm earlier this year and ophelia last year. Shocking they were considering calling off a european rugby matches for what was nothing more than a bit of wind and rain

Artane2002

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Another non entity 'storm'. This over calling has increased In frequency since the snow storm earlier this year and ophelia last year. Shocking they were considering calling off a european rugby matches for what was nothing more than a bit of wind and rain

This thread is probably more suitable for talking about things to do with disagreeing with weather warnings. This debate has derailed threads in the past.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791

Danno

Top gust at standard 10m height was 53mph (85kph) which rolled through just after 5.20pm.

Here is the last few hours wind graph:



I think these warning systems need to be looked at, this was not worth a national warning.

Little snowy old me

I understand the difficulty that this particular system presented for forecasters but its yet another crying wolf event. Yes it was nasty in a few places, but majority of the population will be wondering what was the hype all about. My worry is that complacency will set in and one day a big storm will come and kill and injure many.

MJohnston

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I understand the difficulty that this particular system presented for forecasters but its yet another crying wolf event. Yes it was nasty in a few places, but majority of the population will be wondering what was the hype all about. My worry is that complacency will set in and one day a big storm will come and kill and injure many.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791

SleetAndSnow

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I understand the difficulty that this particular system presented for forecasters but its yet another crying wolf event. Yes it was nasty in a few places, but majority of the population will be wondering what was the hype all about. My worry is that complacency will set in and one day a big storm will come and kill and injure many.

I really don’t think people understand. A 9 year old girl was injured by a fallen tree. I’m delighted the warnings were called out, could have been a lot worse and met eireann did this perfectly, they updated with all their guidance, made the full country orange when the models showed it and then downgraded when they got clearer information.

FrostyJack

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I understand the difficulty that this particular system presented for forecasters but its yet another crying wolf event. Yes it was nasty in a few places, but majority of the population will be wondering what was the hype all about. My worry is that complacency will set in and one day a big storm will come and kill and injure many.

The job of forecaster is to warn people not convince them. If you live in an area that was not affected great for you. I passed 2 trees down blocking 1 side of a road on the way to work, both easily could have cost a life due to being on blind kinks in the road. I would not have gone out thanks to the warning but for I had to. If you or other uninformed people choose to ignore warnings, on your head be it. Do you comment on every thread about attackers on the loose saying " I never been attacked once and the news keeps warning me, people are just going to ignore the warning due to attacker fatigue"?

nthclare

Hailstones now outside... North Clare

mickger844posts

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I really don’t think people understand. A 9 year old girl was injured by a fallen tree. I’m delighted the warnings were called out, could have been a lot worse and met eireann did this perfectly, they updated with all their guidance, made the full country orange when the models showed it and then downgraded when they got clearer information.

Have to agree 100%. Hats off to Met Eireann on this one. They can only go on what the models show them and they reacted perfectly. Its the weather after all, it will do what it wants.

Gaoth Laidir

Remember, 48 hours ago this depression hadn't even started to form yet. To those hurlers on the ditch who like to have a poke at Met Éireann after every storm, I refer you to this famous quote:

“Consider a rotating spherical envelope of a mixture of gases, occasionally murky and always somewhat viscous. Place it around an astronomical object nearly 8000 miles in diameter. Tilt the whole system back and forth with respect to its source of heat and light. Freeze it at the poles of its axis of rotation and intensely heat it in the middle. Cover most of the surface of the sphere with a liquid that continually feeds moisture into the atmosphere. Subject the whole to tidal forces induced by the sun and a captive satellite. Then try to predict the conditions of one small portion of that atmosphere for a period of one to several days in advance.” – Author Unknown

M.T. Cranium

In any case, I think the orange level storm warning was essentially for rainfall potential and it was added that some coastal areas would see orange alert conditions met for wind, nobody was ever expecting wind gusts to reach orange level in most counties, and the storm was complex for rainfall forecasting with different output on different models, all showing some areas likely to exceed 30 mm. At some point I made the comment that it might go from yellow to orange and they might as well do a country-wide orange since at least some places in each county might reach orange alert status. The local rainfall minimum right over Galway combined with probably the lowest wind speeds achieved made it a definite bust in Galway but then I don't recall anyone saying in advance "this looks really bad for Galway," maybe if you'd suggested some place it wouldn't be that bad, you would have gotten that suggestion -- storm warnings tend to concentrate on what could happen and where it could be worst, to some extent, the storm verified on those considerations if maybe a little underwhelming on both counts. Probably whoever was out at Kinsale energy platform thought highly of the warnings they received anyway.

Peak gust that I can see on the Welsh side past few hours would be 128 km/hr at Aberdaron at 19z. At the same time, 115 km/hr at Pembrey Sands in southwest Wales.

Meteorite58

In the end the strongest winds stayed further out to sea , pressure gradient did not tighten as much as earlier predicted. The guidance from the various models showed very severe weather as close as late last night and they backed off from this in stages in the earlier hours and through the morning. Right at the end the models got it fairly right.

In hindsight the French models did well, they seemed to be under predicting the speeds and track compared to the other models but were on it first I reckon , ECM got there, HIRLAM got there, ICON bit over done the wind speeds but adjusted well in the end, FMI - HIRLAM last to adjust downwards in speed and track. GFS and WRF were struggling with this , WRF -NMM did best in the end if under doing the speeds .

Squally in the afternoon but wind not a problem here near Tralee, gusting to about 60 km/h . 15mm of rainfall .

Bar dropped to 982.5 hPa at 12.03 , High 1001.3 at 0.00 currently 997.7 hPa Rising Rapidly

NASA

Earlier today

Widdensushi

Alot of area's will see stronger winds Monday than they did today.

M.T. Cranium

These seem to be the standard rules for storm threads:

1. Whatever actually happens, somebody will say it missed them completely and should never have been called a storm.

2. Whatever actually happens, somebody will say it was the worst they ever saw and feel lucky to be alive.

3. In rare instances, somebody claims both 1 and 2, confusing the readers even more.

4. Whatever was actually forecast, somebody will say Met E did a perfect job forecasting it, hats off to them.

5. Whatever was actually observed, somebody down the road will report it was totally different there (and probably it was, winds can be blocked out by buildings or hills, and showers can be heavy one place, light a few kilometres away).

So in general when assessing how any given storm went, you have to count up how many of each of these sorts of posts there were, the excess of 2 over 1 can be taken as a rough guide to storm severity, the percentage of posts resembling 4 will always be about the same, I think if there was a totally unpredicted catastrophe of stupendous proportions, or a dead calm throughout a red alert, somebody would post this anyway.

Hope nobody takes offence, by the way, just my somewhat facetious view of storm threads past, present and no doubt future.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Hats off to Met E

Edit:

I don’t even have a hat.

M.T. Cranium

On a more serious note, I think Meteorite does a great job stocking these storm threads with useful content and I really liked to see the post-storm recap above.

This probably lacked one ingredient to make it a very powerful windstorm, and that was a tighter supporting gradient at mid to upper levels, I think (storm) Deirdre did the best with what she was given.

M.T. Cranium

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Hats off to Met E

Edit:

I don’t even have a hat.

That's because the wind blew it away. :cool::pac:

uck51js9zml2yt

The reason this storm went wrong and didn't do as ME said it should was that "our" Joanna was off partying and Galavanting last night (according to her tweets) when should have been in Glasnevin.

Some will ask where's the Harm in that?...well he wasn't out partying as far as I can see

I'll get my hat and brollie if it's not too windy somewhere;)

Oscar Bravo

Ty Prehistoric Lark wrote: »

The reason this storm went wrong and didn't do as ME said it should was that "our" Joanna was off partying and Galavanting last night (according to her tweets) when should have been in Glasnevin.

Some will ask where's the Harm in that?...well he wasn't out partying as far as I can see

I'll get my hat and brollie if it's not too windy somewhere;)

That's a Lowe one

km79

I’m always in the “glad it didn’t turn out as bad as forecast “ brigade


But it’s always always better to be safe than sorry imo
I secured everything outside the morning as per usual
It took 5 minutes
It looks like it wasn’t necessary now but who cares !

Keep up the good work it is appreciated

DellyBelly

Have to say a pretty non event in Dublin. Got a bit windy but nothing of significance. Think ME exaggerated a little but I suppose better safe than sorry

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/kilkennyweather/status/1074085458244718592

Pangea

Few hailstones in the mix here now in Donegal.

pauldry

Was definitely worth a warning today

As Siobhan said last night a high end yellow

Got soaked today n some high rainfall over 30mm and gusty winds

Not unusual but far from the average type of day

clfy39tzve8njq

Deidre seriously under performed

kerrycork13

Ty Prehistoric Lark wrote: »

Didn't see any

I did went out for cigarette and spotted two in the space of 5 mins

Macy0161

Well the wind this evening was short lived, but strong enough I was happy to have made the call not to bring the kids to the flicks and go DVD instead here in Wicklow. Particularly given the flooding. Strong enough to damage the roof of one of the sheds anyway, so that's my Sunday morning lie on gone!

Xenji

Just shy of 40mm of rain in Castlebar today, looks like we will see the equivalent or higher Monday into Tuesday.