Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

ZX7R

DOCARCH wrote: »

DunLaoghaire currently reporting gust of 59kts, and Dublin Bay Buoy reporting wave height of 5.8m (....that's very high for Dublin Bay!).

quite a stormy night in maynooth last night,not looking forward traveling this evening to work by motorbike,i hate the wind.

Graces7

DOCARCH wrote: »

Just bear in mind that Storm Deirdre will not arrive until later. Orange warning comes into effect at 3pm.

so the heavy non stop deluges are extra? :rolleyes:

DOCARCH

Graces7 wrote: »

so the heavy non stop deluges are extra? :rolleyes:

Christmas bonus!

M.T. Cranium

The impulse for this storm recently moved across the PAP buoy at 49N 16W, so far just in an embryonic stage. High seas seem to be fairly widespread in advance of this developing storm, a leftover result of Thursday's wind fetch.

The wind sequence with this storm will be interesting. In the eastern half of the country, strong southeast winds will tend to weaken as the trough approaches, at some point around 3-5 p.m. could go almost calm, then pick up rapidly from the west reaching gale to storm force gusts. In the west, the wind is likely to fade out gradually this morning to nearly calm, then will pick up gradually from the northwest at first, until there's a stronger gradient developed, then will reach gale to storm force gusts early to mid afternoon.

Just wanted some less weather-conscious readers to know that some intervals of light winds are likely, so that nobody assumes the storm has fizzled out. Along the south coast, this sequence will be particularly abrupt, as soon as the elongated trough moves east, winds will suddenly pick up to 80-120 km/hr westerly (about 3 p.m. Cork to 5 p.m. Wexford).

licklelee5

We are due to fly into Dublin from the UK at around 8pm, just wondering if anyone in the know thinks this will still be likely?
Will start to make alternative plans.
Thanks all, always great advice here.

Gaoth Laidir

Look at the difference in wind direction between Dublin Airport and Casement at the moment. They're just 20 km apart.

SEPT 23 1989

Woken up by a few very violent gusts in the last 20 minutes

Newcastle Dublin

pad199207

Very strong gusts in Naas

M.T. Cranium

Hirlam FMI depiction is particularly intense, moves the low somewhat further north on an inland track and also has that more circular end result without the elongated trough being very prominent. If that's exactly how this plays out, it could be more like code red winds for parts of the south coast spreading into the inland southeast. That scenario would reduce (for some coastal areas) any intervals of winds going slack then shifting, it would be more like an Ophelia wind field gradually increasing to storm force and slowly veering southeast to southwest.

The other Hirlam depiction is not quite as intense. Most of the other models held serve on their previous looks (to me anyway), but each in its own way would deliver some storm force gusts.

Anyway, will be brewing some coffee and staying up with this one, should have reliable indications by about 10 or 11 as to exact track and intensity, well placed ocean buoys to help us (K3 for example).

redsteveireland

Calm, but wet, in the west.

Kamili

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

M.T. Cranium

Kamili wrote: »

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

Not for Ireland, the central parts of Britain have a shallow surface layer of colder air that crept over from France and the rain will be falling into that, freezing on the surface (it doesn't have time to freeze in the air while falling, or it would become ice pellets or sleet). No part of Ireland will turn any colder than it is now so just plain rain. Same for parts of southwest England and coastal Wales that are above freezing as this sets in.

vid36

Kamili wrote: »

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

There was some in Ireland on December 26 2009

DOCARCH

Wind easing a bit now in Dublin 16. Was like the Daughter of Deirdre here earlier! Some very strong gusts.

Graces7

still calm and still deluging, and still very dark, West Mayo offshore

Tigerandahalf

Will this be a non event in the west except for rain? South getting the worst?

Meteorite58

Was looking through the various models on the phone and was surprised to see most of them step back from the earlier very strong winds that they were showing.

To show an example these were the maximum wind speeds being shown by ICON, big change.





Even the ECM not showing the strongest winds track inland ( still windy but not as intense ). Maybe they have backed off or perhaps on next run show them again, not sure. As MT said FMI -HIRLAM looking the strongest, it has not altered it's wind speeds ( apart from being a bit stronger ) or track from previous run.

munsterlegend

Miserable near Mallow. Gusty winds and heavy rain.

nthclare

munsterlegend wrote: »

Miserable near Mallow. Gusty winds and heavy rain.

Still quite in Clare
I postponed a trip today due to aquaplane forecasts etc lol

Meteorite58

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify.

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify

Would Hirlam not be more accurate at this range?

Meteorite58

HIRLAM 0Z Mean wind speeds






925hPa winds ( .75 km approx height ) would be a guide to what gusts to expect according to the HIRLAM

Meteorite58

munsterlegend wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify

Would Hirlam not be more accurate at this range?

I would have thought so . The French models have really held off keeping the strongest winds out to sea and along the coastal fringes which is surprising .

downwiththatsor

When do Met Eireann get Harmonie updates?

mickger844posts

Gusty winds out there with 28.2mm of rain since Midnight. Max gust 65km/h.

www.waterfordweather.com

DOCARCH

Fastnet staring to pick up a bit of wind. 44kt gusting 52kt atm.

M.T. Cranium

If Hirlam FMI is the best guidance we will have indications from sharper pressure falls at K1, K3 and M3 buoys at 0900h and 1000h. The signs from 0800h were inconclusive, steady falls in progress. Also there should be a very rapid intensification signature in the satellite imagery around 50N 12W. I am currently working on a graphic to show where those buoys are in relation to Valentia and Sherkin Island, Cork and Roches Point. Then if Hirlam FMI is on track the central pressure of this storm will fall much faster than is allowed on other guidance and should be close to 980 mbs by 1100h. (it looks to be about 988 mbs now). Unfortunately the buoys don't report until well into the hour so the 0900 readings will be available after 0930.

Meteorite58

ICON 06Z rolling out now, similar to the last run keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas ( slightly higher winds inland from the coasts that the previous run ) but still gusting up to 110 inland going by this run , maybe a bit more in the SE.

Not disputing what Met Eireann have forecast just my own observations going by the information available . I would imagine that the forecasters would allow for wobbles in the charts from run to run and work out an average and use their experience on what the probable outcome will be. Of course they have their own Hi Res model now too so putting it to a good test !

munsterlegend

No change in Met Eireann update at 9am to previous forecast. Still going for damaging gusts across the country later today.

Meteorite58

Strongest winds not expected until early afternoon. Quite windy up along the E coasts all morning.