Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

Sycamore Tree

Surprisingly calm in Galway this morning. No obvious signs of major rainfall as yet.

munsterlegend

Spot flooding in parts of Cork already so it will be very messy later never mind with the the stronger winds.

fred funk }{

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Surprisingly calm in Galway this morning. No obvious signs of major rainfall as yet.

Very windy South Wicklow. Some gusts shifting roof tiles.

realdanbreen

Just wondering. When they predicted 30-50mm rainfall on last evening 9pm news was that including whatever rain fell last night or is it the amount due to fall during storm deride? Flooding is my concern but I can live with 50mm over a prolonged period.

Mortelaro

fred funk }{ wrote: »

Very windy South Wicklow. Some gusts shifting roof tiles.

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1073866020648075264?s=09

2013Lara

Can really hear the wind getting going now in coastal Wicklow town.

DOCARCH

Wind is back up and running again in Dublin 16. Some very string gusts.

Dublin Bay Buoy reporting 38kt gusting 57kt.

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just wondering. When they predicted 30-50mm rainfall on last evening 9pm news was that including whatever rain fell last night or is it the amount due to fall during storm deride? Flooding is my concern but I can live with 50mm over a prolonged period.

?

squarecircles

flat calm,west Mayo,

unrelenting rain.

giveitholly

realdanbreen wrote: »

?

The rainfall warning began midnight last night so I would presume it includes last nights totals but I'm sure the experts here would be able to tell you for sure

DOCARCH

squarecircles wrote: »

flat calm,west Mayo.

The east is the new west!

DunLaoghaire Harbour reporting 34kt gusting 54kt.

Graces7

went outside when it finally got light enough... my drive is waterlogged and so is the back. Never seen it as bad and still deluging. No mountains . Just a wall of water in every direction and a calm ocean

west mayo offshore

M.T. Cranium

Map for Storm Deirdre development 0900-1200 Sat 15 Dec 2018

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52N

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51.5

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50N

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49N

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..........................K1.......................................................... >> Brest 5W
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48N

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Pressures observed 0900h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field


_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W


52N

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:987

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50N

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LOW

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49N

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48N

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Analysis -- The K1 buoy shows larger pressure drops than other locations, wind there has increased from 28 to 34 knots.

Satellite imagery location for LOW is shown on grid above (50N 12W). About 986 mbs.

Needs to be around 980 mbs near 50.5N 11.5W at 10h. Will post same map (data only) around 1040h.

Rock Lesnar

Fairly windy in my area of meath, with on and off spells of rain, (currently raining) just a typical winters day so far

harr

Absolutely brutal morning here in Laois...cold, very wet and windy. Spot flooding in places.

corsav6

Light wind but consistent rain here outside Newport, Mayo.
Forgot to replace batteries in my rainfall gauge so won't get readings but ME weather station is not too far away so I can go by that.

Clonmel1000

Brutal morning here in south Tipp. Breezy not especially windy but heavy driving way. You’d have to feel for traders and shoppers today. There’s only so many days you can “light the fire and close the curtains”. Thankfully I’m escaping Thursday.

Widdensushi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Map for Storm Deirdre development 0900-1200 Sat 15 Dec 2018

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_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W long


52N

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51N ----K3----:

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49.5

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49N

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..........................K1.......................................................... >> Brest 5W
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48N

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Pressures observed 0900h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field


_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W


52N

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51.5

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50N

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LOW

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49N

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48N

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Analysis -- The K1 buoy shows larger pressure drops than other locations, wind there has increased from 28 to 34 knots.

Satellite imagery location for LOW is shown on grid above (50N 12W). About 986 mbs.

Needs to be around 980 mbs near 50.5N 11.5W at 10h. Will post same map (data only) around 1040h.

Does that indicate that the worst of the wind might pass south of the country?

Graces7

The tide is full; I can hear the breakers crashing the rocks against each other; does that have an effect on weather events? west mayo offshore

M.T. Cranium

The 0900h map is the first of three that I plan to analyze, in an effort to test out which model is on track -- taken by itself, this map does not lean towards any forecast conclusion. Comparison with 10h and 11h will give us a better idea.

cyclops999

Persistent rain in Athlone even street lights coming back on getting very dark

uck51js9zml2yt

North Kerry is clear for now. Had some rain earlier but so far so good

Harry Palmr

Very wet. The wind not such a thing right now was stronger overnight. Loads of roads flooded and a few cars blown off the road according to the local news.

SpaceRocket

licklelee5 wrote: »

We are due to fly into Dublin from the UK at around 8pm, just wondering if anyone in the know thinks this will still be likely?
Will start to make alternative plans.
Thanks all, always great advice here.

Have a pick up for a flight landing around 6pm. Would also be interested to know if this is now unlikely with dub airport forcasting 60knots for this timeframe..

Gaoth Laidir

cyclops999 wrote: »

Persistent rain in Athlone even street lights coming back on getting very dark

Met Éireann now issue metars from Custume Barracks in Athlone. Here's the latest from 10:18. Wind 18 kts, visibility 9 KM, moderate rain, overcast at 1500 ft, slp 991 hPa.

SPECI EIAC 151018Z AUTO 14018KT 9000 RA OVC015/// 10/09 Q0991=

Little snowy old me

Strong wind, near gale gusts, and moderate rain. Clondalkin.

SleetAndSnow

Morning all. Raining in cork city stm but there are some strong gusts that are hitting against my house alright.

squarecircles

turned to night here in west mayo,biblical rain

JCX BXC

Eerily calm and sunny in West Clare atm.

M.T. Cranium

Pressures observed 10h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field


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52N

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..............................(10)LOW(984).......................................
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48N

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Analysis: At 10h, most pressures on the grid had fallen 1-2 mbs and the satellite fix was only slightly north-north-east of the previous hour as shown, now about 50.2N 11.8W. A rapid pressure rise of 6 mbs occurred at K1. It appears to me that the centre is deepening with better organization in the past hour. Given the obs at the K1 buoy, the wind field is rapidly intensifying (K1 veered from south 34 knots at 0900 to west 39 at 1000). This is supported by stronger gusts reaching as far north as Valentia in the past hour.

There is support so far for the more intense Hirlam FMI solution but I would say that proof of that will come either at 1100 or 1200 with rapid pressure falls at the M3 buoy which should be right in the path of developing storm "Deirdre."

next map then at 1140h for 1100h. (will know about M3 by 1120 though, might just post a comment then).