Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

fryup

looking at the ventusky website it looks a fairly mild storm

mickger844posts

For the day thats in it i've started a Live Stream from Waterford City

https://www.youtube.com/c/WaterfordMeteo/live

Sycamore Tree

JCX BXC wrote: »

Eerily calm and sunny in West Clare atm.

Sun trying to break out in Galway too. Looks fairly bright on Black Head too.

tikkamark

Seriously heavy rain here in Mullingar the last hour very strong sharp gusts too,enough to shake parked cars

rebel456

From looking at Ventusky yesterday compared to today it appears Storm Deirdre has tracked slightly more southerly. Is that what others are seeing?

Now though those on the peninsulas of West Cork will still get a battering. Cork Airport too looking to be in the firing line for anyone flying today.

tikkamark

Seems to be a lot of thunder activity in the cork area now and for the next few hours too

squarecircles

wind has just picked up here in west mayo,place covered in floods

martyfurey

Well the wind is blowing and driving the rain hard against the windows here outside kilbeggan. It's brutal out. I had planned on going to Dublin to do the Christmases shopping and to absorb the atmosphere. Cancelled as I think the only thing I would be absorbing is the rain and wind. Looks like it will be brutal later in Dublin. Stay safe fgolks

Oscar Bravo

Cork airport 1030 991hpa. 11am 989hpa. Falling sharply now.

Little snowy old me

Strong winds and rain has eased in Clondalkin. Still overcast but brighter now. See what the afternoon brings.

Graces7

Looks like the end of the world out there; "not with a bang but a whimper." Disorientating. so dark at this hour .

Just been out and the whole land around the dwelling is starting to vanish. The dwelling is becoming an island on an island..totally safe, assuring you...fascinating.
west mayo offshore

Sycamore Tree

What a strange country. Blue skies breaking in Galway now. Not much but welcome brightness in the darkness.

JCX BXC

Latest TAF max gusts

Max Gusts:
Dublin 55kts
Shannon 50kts
Cork 58kts
Knock 48kts.

SleetAndSnow

cloudy in cork but not raining atm , some gusts but died down but it’s very dark. Have to have the lights etc on.

BringBackMick

The TAF speeds will give a good fix on what the Harmonie model is going for.

Oscar Bravo

Plenty of lightning off the SW coast now

Rikand

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

That rainfall warning isn’t even active yet but it’s lashing in cork city! My mother’s delighted that a storm has finally been naned After her haha. This storm has been getting stronger and stronger each run so hopefully it doesn’t get much stronger.

My mother and her brother were land falling atlantic hurricanes this year.

Little snowy old me

Liffey Valley Shopping Centre is busy but nowhere as busy as would be expected on the second last Saturday before Christmas. Retailers, especially high street ones, won't be happy if people stay away and no severe weather materialises.

Graces7

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Plenty of lightning off the SW coast now

lightning? Oh no! it is getting lighter though... and heavier rain. apocalyptic

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Latest TAF max gusts

Max Gusts:
Dublin 55kts
Shannon 50kts
Cork 58kts
Knock 48kts.

Waterford 50 kts (down from 58 kts earlier)
Casement, Sligo 50 kts
Donegal, Kerry 45 kts

M.T. Cranium

Pressures observed 1100h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field


_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W


52N

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51.5

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50.5

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LOW(982) 11h

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50N

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LOW(984) 10h

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49.5

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.....................LOW(986).09h..................................................
49N

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48.5

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48N

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Analysis: Low has been reset for 0900h on this chart based on a better fix from different satellite imagery. Steady motion northeast to this point and gradual deepening.

My conclusion is that the Hirlam FMI solution may verify or at least be better than most other guidance. Satellite imagery showing nearly circular low pressure organization and much of the guidance seems to assign leading role to northern end of low pressure trough, but energy seems to be stronger with southern end. Will bet on the Hirlam FMI to provide reasonable guidance. In other words, expect the onset of very strong winds on the south coast around 1 to 2 p.m. lasting 3-5 hours, these will spread well inland and turn increasingly southwest to west in direction. Dublin likely to see strongest winds around 6 to 8 p.m.

Low analyzed at about 50.5 N 10.8 W. Looks to be a little east of Hirlam FMI track, may hit land closer to east Cork than Kerry.

Mortelaro

Arklow harbour a few minutes ago

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1073904395283181570?s=09

Cloudio9

SpaceRocket wrote: »

Have a pick up for a flight landing around 6pm. Would also be interested to know if this is now unlikely with dub airport forcasting 60knots for this timeframe..

Wind direction is forecast to be 260 degrees which means there’s a good chance of landing on runway 28.

flazio

Looking at flightradar at the minute, doesn't appear to be any aircraft in a holding pattern or diverted, one Ryanair from Gatwick has done a go around, but looks like they're all getting down.

Meteorite58

Very mild here near Tralee at 13.2C. 6mm since midnight. Breezy up to 50 km/h but not strong.

983.3 hPa Falling Rapidly

Strongest winds S of the main band of cloud off the SW








https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1073869480458096640

Graces7

Hearing the wind awakening, and the crashing of breakers on the shore... is this Deirdre storming in?

Getting louder..... and louder...

west mayo offshore island

Meteorite58

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/



Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Dec 2018

ISSUED 10:37 UTC Sat 15 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Much of this forecast period is characterised by marginal instability but strong upper forcing, as a deepening area of low pressure migrates northwards across Ireland, pushing an active frontal system eastwards across the British Isles.

Aside from the risk of severe weather as a result of rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain across England, Wales and Scotland, there may be a window of opportunity for some well-forced convection to occur over the Republic of Ireland on Saturday afternoon, either along or just ahead of the wrap-around occlusion. Strong low-level shear and a marked wind veer suggests the potential for perhaps a tornado. Some sporadic lightning and hail will be possible - reluctant to issue a SLGT since the risk of lightning is considered below the 30% threshold, but have issued a low-end SLGT to better highlight the areas at risk.

Elsewhere, showers will become more widespread over the Celtic Sea and English Channel (and adjacent land areas) on Saturday night as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. A few sporadic lightning strikes, small hail and gusty winds will be possible from the most intense cells.

Oscar Bravo

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

Update: Storm Deirdre will move quickly across the country this afternoon and evening and will move through the Irish Sea early tonight. 
It will give some squally, damaging winds in all areas for a short period of time.
In Munster and Connacht winds will peak mid to late afternoon, depending on location and in Leinster and Ulster in the early evening. 
West to northwest winds 55 to 65 km/h will gust 100 to 110 km/h generally, but some gusts will reach up to 130 km/h in exposed locations.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Saturday 15 December 2018 11:31

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 14:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

BlackandGreen

The local river here in south Kilkenny has tripled in volume.
Haven't seen it that high in a long time. I can tell from past experiences we're looking at some bad flooding if the rain is to continue right up until this evening.

Christmas shopping and family event cancelled today. Going to hold the fort here today.

Meteorite58

No great change in the ICON 9Z, strongest winds along the coasts. ARPEGE similar, AROME keeping the strongest winds a bit further off the coasts.