Yulewolf - A Werewolf Christmas Carol Game Thread

Derry WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

Actually Derry why would you point this out? It might be slim but it's still a possibility and means no one is cleared by seer peek regardless of result.

Rule out nothing or end up with egg on your face. I kinda feel like you're slightly trying to divert talk from the alpha....

Nope. Just not much else to talk about currently. Not ruling anything out or diverting anything. Just there's a discussion on something so I offered a thought.

The seer has a 96% accuracy rate (22/23 peek correctly). Yes, they can't clear anyone 100%. But they can clear people 96%.

Vernon WW

Henry WW wrote: »

It's possible. It might even be probable. But I'd hardly say it's "safe to assume". SK1 could peek good night 1 and bad night 2 etc, while SK2 could peek bad night 1 and good night 2 etc. Or both could peek bad night 1 and good night 2, or good night one and bad night 2.

I think it is "safe to assume" that the SKs themselves know the rota. The rest of us are probably only left to guess.

The OP says they work together. I would take that as an indication that the peek evil/ good together. Not definite, very likely. The day 1 peek would be the most important in my opinion. My reading is that the SKs will read as evil if peeked. Only 1 character in total out of all 24 is ambiguous so the odds of hitting that character are small. So if someone if peeked as good on the first go, it is a high probability they are who they have been shown as.

Steve WW

You're all assuming the alpha wolf peeks good, it doesnt have to be the case. They could have a different power. It doesnt say in the op

Brendan WW

Derry WW wrote:

The seer has a 96% accuracy rate (22/23 peek correctly). Yes, they can't clear anyone 100%. But they can clear people 96%.

Ooh statistics what does that as a matter of interest decrease to on alternate days with a pair of unpeekable SKs.

Also let's not rule out the possibility that SK 1 can't be peeked night 1 (remember peeks are night cycles) and then SK 2 may not be peekable night 2 as an e.g..

I think it's unlikely but also should be accounted for in the various scenarios

And I'm saying 2 SKs as it clearly states pair in the OP

Brendan WW

Steve WW wrote:

You're all assuming the alpha wolf peeks good, it doesnt have to be the case. They could have a different power. It doesnt say in the op

We were literally told in the questions thread that was the alpha power

Brendan WW

@Steve: Necrominus asked that in the first page and was probably the only definite answer given by mods in the entire thread

Necro wrote:

Is the alpha on Scrooge's team (presumably Scrooge) able to be peeked? By that I mean, will they show as good?

Pter wrote:

Everyone can be peeked. Alpha power is as per our roles thread description (without the ability to peek someone themselves), so alpha would show as good if peeked.

Steve WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

@Steve: Necrominus asked that in the first page and was probably the only definite answer given by mods in the entire thread

Fair enough, thats what I get for not paying attention. Thanks Bren.

Vernon WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

Any time really. Alpha peeks as good too

How do you know this ?

Vernon WW

Ok, I see it now.

Derry WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

Ooh statistics what does that as a matter of interest decrease to on alternate days with a pair of unpeekable SKs.

Yeaaaaah, it took me long enough to work out that to find a percentage was to divide 22 by 23 and multiply by 100, so I'll let the more savey mathematicians work out further calculations.

Brendan WW

Derry WW wrote:

Yeaaaaah, it took me long enough to work out that to find a percentage was to divide 22 by 23 and multiply by 100, so I'll let the more savey mathematicians work out further calculations.

Lol ok, my point anyways is 96% ain't 100%, it's as I mentioned the caveat to the seers peeks.
And then the percentage reduces further on whatever days the SKs peek as good.

I mean I'm not saying discount the peeks but don't rely on them.

Village won without a full seer last game so it's not a massive thing anyways, we'll be grand.

Derry WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

I mean I'm not saying discount the peeks but don't rely on them.

I wouldn't rely on anything. Just hate when we can't trust anything. Feel that its often best to at least work on a spectrum of trust rather than a binary.

Henry WW

Derry WW wrote: »

Yeaaaaah, it took me long enough to work out that to find a percentage was to divide 22 by 23 and multiply by 100, so I'll let the more savey mathematicians work out further calculations.

What are we saying - one Alpha that peeks good, and two other evils on the Scrooge team?

Then two SKs that peek good 50% of the time.

Then:

21/23 players peek good assuming tonight's the night the SKs peek good: 91%
20/23 players peek good assuming only one of the SKs peek good: 87%
19/23 players peek good assuming tonight's the night the SKs peek bad: 83%

Seer will be a guide to us. Nobody good peeks evil as far as we know so an evil peek is at least a guaranteed evil, so we can rely on them for that.

But a good peek we can take with a grain of scepticism until we know SKs/Alpha are dead.

Henry WW

Or, as already suggested by Steve, we combine the peek with the interrogation, but again that assumes that the interrogator blocks the power of the Alpha and SKs to peek as good.

Clodagh WW

Man! Already really thrown here! Am trying to get my head around the OP, roles and statistics regarding the seer peeks

Hi by the way. Clodagh checking in

Henry WW

FWIW, I'd like Fiona peeked.

Clodagh WW

Henry WW wrote: »

FWIW, I'd like Fiona peeked.

Why?

Phil WW

Brendan WW wrote: »

Lol ok, my point anyways is 96% ain't 100%, it's as I mentioned the caveat to the seers peeks.
And then the percentage reduces further on whatever days the SKs peek as good.

I mean I'm not saying discount the peeks but don't rely on them.

Village won without a full seer last game so it's not a massive thing anyways, we'll be grand.

That's because the priest was an absolute pro!


Hey guys

Brendan WW

Sup Phil Mitchell, hope you ain't on the grog :pac:

Steve WW

Henry WW wrote: »

Or, as already suggested by Steve, we combine the peek with the interrogation, but again that assumes that the interrogator blocks the power of the Alpha and SKs to peek as good.

Yep, its not confirmed what exactly the interrogator does, have to guess its blocks powers going on the previous time this role was used. Cant see what else they would do. They will obviously block roled vils also in this case so gotta be careful with it.

Phil WW

No grog

But I am busy with family for the rest of the night more or less. I'll have to bring the yippi-ki-yay from tomorrow instead

Fiona WW

Scrooge is playing a difficult role, he appears good all the time and could eventually come good. IMO He has no power over whether he is converted or not and depending on circumstances will be turned good or remain evil at predetermined point

Isla WW

Merry Christmas everyone!


Nice to see everyone getting into the festive spirit by plotting to viciously murder each other.

My nomination for best Christmas song is this one and is the clear winner. It's not Christmas until I hear this.

Steve WW

Fiona WW wrote: »

Scrooge is playing a difficult role, he appears good all the time and could eventually come good. IMO He has no power over whether he is converted or not and depending on circumstances will be turned good or remain evil at predetermined point

I may have missed another memo but gotta ask, Scrooge appearing as good all the time, where was this confirmed?

Henry WW

Isla WW wrote: »

My nomination for best Christmas song is this one and is the clear winner. It's not Christmas until I hear this.

Good one for choosing the actual original.

Henry WW

Steve WW wrote: »

I may have missed another memo but gotta ask, Scrooge appearing as good all the time, where was this confirmed?

Q&A thread. Somebody quoted the question and mod response above.

Henry WW

Henry WW wrote: »

Q&A thread. Somebody quoted the question and mod response above.

Brendan, post #97 this very page and for your attention.

Steve WW

Henry WW wrote: »

Q&A thread. Somebody quoted the question and mod response above.

You mean about the alpha, yeah I saw that but where does it say Scrooge is the alpha?

Henry WW

Steve WW wrote: »

You mean about the alpha, yeah I saw that but where does it say Scrooge is the alpha?

Ah right, yeah, we don't know that for sure. We just know one of Scrooge's team is an Alpha and peeks good. We don't now for sure it's Scrooge himself.

Barbara WW

Task?

Phil WW wrote: »

No grog

But I am busy with family for the rest of the night more or less. I'll have to bring the yippi-ki-yay from tomorrow instead