Property Market 2019

Interested Observer

pearcider wrote: »

Keep your powder dry. There has been tremendous volatility in the international markets this summer...normally the crashes come in the autumn. Just like the Dow Jones, this market is only going one way. It’s almost certain that the government will be forced to raise taxes in October. This will lower property prices.

Any more made up figures to back this up, no?

Horusire

Interested Observer wrote: »

pearcider wrote: »

Keep your powder dry. There has been tremendous volatility in the international markets this summer...normally the crashes come in the autumn. Just like the Dow Jones, this market is only going one way. It’s almost certain that the government will be forced to raise taxes in October. This will lower property prices.

Any more made up figures to back this up, no?

Any real figures to counter him?

Cyrus

Horusire wrote: »

Any real figures to counter him?

The onus surely is on the person who is predicting a change in the situation

Horusire

Cyrus wrote: »

Horusire wrote: »

Any real figures to counter him?

The onus surely is on the person who is predicting a change in the situation

Fair point. I think we can all agree however that at the minute the property market in Ireland is a 'flat

Horusire

Cyrus wrote: »

Horusire wrote: »

Any real figures to counter him?

The onus surely is on the person who is predicting a change in the situation

Fair point. I think we can all agree however that at the minute the property market in Ireland is a little 'flat'

The_Conductor

Horusire wrote: »

Fair point. I think we can all agree however that at the minute the property market in Ireland is a little 'flat'

Even calling it an 'Irish' market is a misappropriation of terminology. There are a series of distinct markets in Dublin- never mind Ireland- which are all behaving in different manners. In addition Cork is a market of its own- as is Galway. Some of the biggest percentage falls at auction recently have been in Galway- read into that what you will.

Outside of the red-hot urban areas- the euphoria is still strong- prices may be a lot lower than D6/Spidal/Galway City type prices (I'm not sufficiently familiar with the Cork market but I'm certain there are similar upper middle class areas which are reasonable wishes for good working people- but not completely irrationally unaffordable D4 type aspirations.

The greater Dublin/Cork/Galway areas are flat esp. in secondhand property- valued at over 400k. Even affluent property is getting staggering price reductions (look at what happened with Shane Ross's home place). The falls are in particular price brackets and particular property types. It is not across the board.

The agreement with the CIF to reduce the HTB levels by 100,000 is going to further soften the upper segments of the market.

The global economy is hurdling towards the abyss- and we are deeply integrated into the mess coming down the tracks at us.

There will be funny happenings in some local segments of the market- some good, some bad- which will depend on different factors (such as gangland warfare in North Dublin for example). If An Garda Síochána got a hand on it- and it was accepted that it was a thing of the past- parts of Coolock etc- could theoretically boom. Is it plausible- I don't think so.

We have more and more uncertainty with every week that passes- from several different directions- not just our friendly Brexiteers or Trump and his Chinese trade war- there are a myriad of other issues that could creep up and torpedo everything we believe in..........

Bluefoam

The_Conductor wrote: »

Horusire wrote: »

Fair point. I think we can all agree however that at the minute the property market in Ireland is a little 'flat'

Even calling it an 'Irish' market is a misappropriation of terminology. There are a series of distinct markets in Dublin- never mind Ireland- which are all behaving in different manners. In addition Cork is a market of its own- as is Galway. Some of the biggest percentage falls at auction recently have been in Galway- read into that what you will.

Outside of the red-hot urban areas- the euphoria is still strong- prices may be a lot lower than D6/Spidal/Galway City type prices (I'm not sufficiently familiar with the Cork market but I'm certain there are similar upper middle class areas which are reasonable wishes for good working people- but not completely irrationally unaffordable D4 type aspirations.

The greater Dublin/Cork/Galway areas are flat esp. in secondhand property- valued at over 400k. Even affluent property is getting staggering price reductions (look at what happened with Shane Ross's home place). The falls are in particular price brackets and particular property types. It is not across the board.

The agreement with the CIF to reduce the HTB levels by 100,000 is going to further soften the upper segments of the market.

The global economy is hurdling towards the abyss- and we are deeply integrated into the mess coming down the tracks at us.

There will be funny happenings in some local segments of the market- some good, some bad- which will depend on different factors (such as gangland warfare in North Dublin for example). If An Garda Síochána got a hand on it- and it was accepted that it was a thing of the past- parts of Coolock etc- could theoretically boom. Is it plausible- I don't think so.

We have more and more uncertainty with every week that passes- from several different directions- not just our friendly Brexiteers or Trump and his Chinese trade war- there are a myriad of other issues that could creep up and torpedo everything we believe in..........

"Hurtling" not hurdling

fret_wimp2

The_Conductor wrote: »

If An Garda Síochána got a hand on it- and it was accepted that it was a thing of the past- parts of Coolock etc- could theoretically boom. Is it plausible- I don't think so.

Even starting much lower than the serious stuff would make a difference. If the basic laws were enforced many areas would become much more attractive.

Tackle littering, canal drinking, bicycle theft, illegal dumping, scramblers, late night noise and areas like coolock, finglas, ballymun, tallaght, darndale would all become vastly more desirable.

Most of these areas are predominantly populated with regular people who dont cause trouble. If the few that do were kept busy it would make a big dent in these issues. Dont just give out social. Free money and lots of spare time is a recipe for trouble. have it be earned through community work like cleaning, landscaping etc, like so many countries do.

Lots of smaller initiatives would be just as useful than tackling very large difficult issues like gangland.

pearcider

Cyrus wrote: »

The onus surely is on the person who is predicting a change in the situation

The information is widely available. But there are none so blind as those who will not see.

1) economy overheating due to the massive 6.7% increase in spending and well publicized cost over runs in the HSE and other areas. Although even a cursory look at the traffic in Dublin or the rental situation shows this to an impartial observer. Point being this recent high economic growth is not actually a good thing as it cannot be sustained beyond the short term and leads to misallocation of capital.

2) Government has over spent every penny of the corporation tax windfall of the past few years (just like stamp duty back in the Celtic tiger)

3) Ireland remains heavily indebted to the tune of 200 billions (4th highest in a generally very indebted OECD).


https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-assessment-report-june-2019/

The fiscal advisory council literally said the governments fiscal plans were “not credible”. This is very strong language for a report like this.

Even without Brexit and the trade war environment, we would be in an risky situation. It’s not me “talking down the market” here...these our serious analysts who have our national interest at heart.

Cyrus

pearcider wrote: »

The information is widely available. But there are none so blind as those who will not see.

1) economy overheating due to the massive 6.7% increase in spending and well publicized cost over runs in the HSE and other areas. Although even a cursory look at the traffic in Dublin or the rental situation shows this to an impartial observer. Point being this recent high economic growth is not actually a good thing as it cannot be sustained beyond the short term and leads to misallocation of capital.

2) Government has over spent every penny of the corporation tax windfall of the past few years (just like stamp duty back in the Celtic tiger)

3) Ireland remains heavily indebted to the tune of 200 billions (4th highest in a generally very indebted OECD).


https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-assessment-report-june-2019/

The fiscal advisory council literally said the governments fiscal plans were “not credible”. This is very strong language for a report like this.

Even without Brexit and the trade war environment, we would be in an risky situation. It’s not me “talking down the market” here...these our serious analysts who have our national interest at heart.

I just said the onus was on you to provide some context which you now have. So what’s your point ? There’s a risk of a recession because of brexit and unsustainable tax take ? So houses are over priced at the moment ? Where do you see things going then ? Cheaper property but lower salaries all round and far more stringent lending ?

beauf

Deja vu.. Again

Interested Observer

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even calling it an 'Irish' market is a misappropriation of terminology. There are a series of distinct markets in Dublin- never mind Ireland- which are all behaving in different manners. In addition Cork is a market of its own- as is Galway. Some of the biggest percentage falls at auction recently have been in Galway- read into that what you will.

Outside of the red-hot urban areas- the euphoria is still strong- prices may be a lot lower than D6/Spidal/Galway City type prices (I'm not sufficiently familiar with the Cork market but I'm certain there are similar upper middle class areas which are reasonable wishes for good working people- but not completely irrationally unaffordable D4 type aspirations.

The greater Dublin/Cork/Galway areas are flat esp. in secondhand property- valued at over 400k. Even affluent property is getting staggering price reductions (look at what happened with Shane Ross's home place). The falls are in particular price brackets and particular property types. It is not across the board.

The agreement with the CIF to reduce the HTB levels by 100,000 is going to further soften the upper segments of the market.

The global economy is hurdling towards the abyss- and we are deeply integrated into the mess coming down the tracks at us.

There will be funny happenings in some local segments of the market- some good, some bad- which will depend on different factors (such as gangland warfare in North Dublin for example). If An Garda Síochána got a hand on it- and it was accepted that it was a thing of the past- parts of Coolock etc- could theoretically boom. Is it plausible- I don't think so.

We have more and more uncertainty with every week that passes- from several different directions- not just our friendly Brexiteers or Trump and his Chinese trade war- there are a myriad of other issues that could creep up and torpedo everything we believe in..........

I completely agree with your point that there are different markets within the overall Irish housing market, had this very discussion in work on Friday, but one thing that I think is fairly constant over all of them is the availability of credit. If it gets harder to get a mortgage it's going to impact every sub-market you describe above.

Not sure I'm quite so pessimistic on the global economy. We've a year or so left until Trump is turfed out, that'll settle things considerably imo. In the last week alone he's hammered his fed chairman publically to tank the market, made up a conversation with China to try raise it again, god knows what he'll think of next. But there is always another recession on the way, no matter what is happening in the world economy at any given time.

Roberto_gas

Lads what's best strategy in this recession downturn scenario ? Any reallife examples who bought in 2010-2011 after sitting tight for 3-4 years(although being able to buy in 2007-8) !!

L1011

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads what's best strategy in this recession downturn scenario ? Any reallife examples who bought in 2010-2011 after sitting tight for 3-4 years(although being able to buy in 2007-8) !!

Me, in 2012 not 11 but the market kept falling until 12. Mortgage approved at 100% in 2007.

But stories from one crash are useless for another

Mad_maxx

Pheonix10 wrote: »

In 2007, did property prices fall overnight by 50pc or was it over the space of a year or years?

Peak is usually reported as early 2007,(i believe it was third quarter 2006)

By mid 2009,prices had dropped by 40% but it should be borne in mind that this was both a natural reaction to an overshoot at the top and the fallout from the international financial crisis

Mad_maxx

Dolbhad wrote: »

Pheonix10 wrote: »

In 2007, did property prices fall overnight by 50pc or was it over the space of a year or years?

No - the market was it’s lowest around 2012. Even in 2012/2013 those who could buy were debating would they keep waiting (I worked in property then) as it seemed to be the belief that it would keep crashing. But economy started to pick up.

It’s normal to have slight ups and downs in a property market but for some reason, Ireland can’t see to find that balance yet.

The bottom was reached in Dublin in late spring of 2012,Cork City and Galway city bottomed around summer of 2013,Limerick city didn't bottom until early 2015

Different markets both then and now

Mad_maxx

pearcider wrote: »

Mad_maxx wrote: »

What has that to do with the Irish property market?

Equity markets dropped by 40% from the year 2000 to 2002, property in Ireland didn't drop at all, equity markets correct far more often than property markets, 2008 was an anamoly

2008 was a warning not an anomaly. When US property crashed in 2006 Ireland wasn’t far behind. The financials are a good indicator for property as that represents their collateral. Look at the major European banks share price in the last two years. They are all in serious trouble. Bank of Ireland is down 50% but even the biggest HSBC is down 50% in the last two years. Banco Santander is down a similar amount as is Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. If the property market was in any way healthy they would be doing well. They aren’t.

But the primary near term risk I see is Ireland having to significantly tighten fiscal policy post Brexit. This will undermine confidence too which along with credit availability is ultimately what fixes property prices. It actually has precious little to do with earnings.

European equities have been awful across the board for several years, banks have been especially dismal, how can they make money with near zero percent interest rates?

Banking is going through major changes, not really an indicator of how property will go in the near to medium term

UsBus

Interested Observer wrote: »

We've a year or so left until Trump is turfed out, that'll settle things considerably imo. In the last week alone he's hammered his fed chairman publically to tank the market, made up a conversation with China to try raise it again, god knows what he'll think of next.

I hate to break it to you, but I don't see Trump losing next year. Unfortunately his base are delighted with his stance on migration, illegal immigrants etc, the US economy is much improved over there in the last couple of years in terms of jobs, sentiment. Trump voters don't care whether there's a property crash or global crisis as long as their back yard are doing better. I'd love to see him kicked out to settle things down but I can't see anyone overtaking him

airportgirl83

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads what's best strategy in this recession downturn scenario ? Any reallife examples who bought in 2010-2011 after sitting tight for 3-4 years(although being able to buy in 2007-8) !!

I bought my first house in mid 2012 after watching property market very carefully. There was a monthly property market report that I had access to through work but there are many widely available you can use. Once prices started going up (I believe late Spring 2012) I got a mortgage approval in principle.

I've been saving for few years so had a very good lump sum build up. I had zero debt - no car loans, no multiple credit cards.

I'd say pay off all your debts, maintain good savings history, have a permanent contract with your employer for a number of years. That's all you can do really.

Some jobs might be considered "risky" from lenders point of view during the recession so obtaining credit might be difficult e.g. architect during last downturn in Irl or company exporting mainly to the UK market after hard Brexit....sth like that. I work in finance was ok last time anyway.

ZX7R

L1011 wrote: »

Me, in 2012 not 11 but the market kept falling until 12. Mortgage approved at 100% in 2007.

But stories from one crash are useless for another

That is a very valid point you cant compare the last crash with what could happen in the future.

beauf

There are similar patterns though it won't be exactly the same.

FastFullBack

airportgirl83 wrote: »

. There was a monthly property market report that I had access to through work but there are many widely available you can use.

What's a good impartial report that someone could monitor now?

Cyrus

Look at the pretty charts thread on the property pin or do your own analysis on the ppr

Mad_maxx

Cyrus wrote: »

Look at the pretty charts thread on the property pin or do your own analysis on the ppr

Property pin is a stopped clock at best

Interested Observer

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads what's best strategy in this recession downturn scenario ? Any reallife examples who bought in 2010-2011 after sitting tight for 3-4 years(although being able to buy in 2007-8) !!

If this is what you're thinking, are you going to pay rent for those 3-4 years? How much is that going to cost you?

99problems1

Shaky data being released this morning about manufacturing.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0902/1073229-aib-purchasing-managers-index/

Worst performance in 6 years.

The economy can't keep growing infinitely. And if you know the sharks in big business, if you're not expanding, you're dying.

No one seems even bothered by these types of reports, or those about a global slowdown. Lad I know in his mid 20's with a mortgage just went out and bought a 2018 beamer, guaranteed to be a loan.

ELM327

UsBus wrote: »

I hate to break it to you, but I don't see Trump losing next year. Unfortunately his base are delighted with his stance on migration, illegal immigrants etc, the US economy is much improved over there in the last couple of years in terms of jobs, sentiment. Trump voters don't care whether there's a property crash or global crisis as long as their back yard are doing better. I'd love to see him kicked out to settle things down but I can't see anyone overtaking him

Trump will win in 2020 due in part to his main "opponents" being laughable.

ANyone waiting for Trump to be "turfed out" will be sadly disappointed.
I wouldn't be surprised (if they manage to replaced RBG on the supreme court with another conservative) if Trump manages to get a third term either. This would take some supreme court to get it through (as it's not currently allowed in the constitution)

That is one thing I'm relatively certain of (Trump winning in 2020).
Another thing that is more likely than not to happen is a recession. Probably 12-18 months out.

The_Conductor

ELM327 wrote: »

Trump will win in 2020 due in part to his main "opponents" being laughable.

ANyone waiting for Trump to be "turfed out" will be sadly disappointed.
I wouldn't be surprised (if they manage to replaced RBG on the supreme court with another conservative) if Trump manages to get a third term either. This would take some supreme court to get it through (as it's not currently allowed in the constitution)

That is one thing I'm relatively certain of (Trump winning in 2020).
Another thing that is more likely than not to happen is a recession. Probably 12-18 months out.

I hate to have to suggest you might be right.
The Democrats are making an appalling haemes of things.
They need a single candidate and they need to coalesce behind them sooner rather than later. This sniping at one another- is delivering a second term to Trump. The whole process of finding a candidate- the hustings- are a gift to Trump- why bother fighting with the Democrats, when they're doing the job for him...........

99problems1

If a recession happens before the election, Trump is gone.

His whole shtick is the performance of the stock market and jobs and 401K growth.

Cyrus

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Property pin is a stopped clock at best

its a forum like this one, some posters have better insight than others, the charts thread is using verifiable data and no really drawing conclusions other than what the data suggests.